The signs are obvious that Amazon has shifted Kindle sales to Kindle 2.0 sales. Here are the reasons I feel this is an almost certainty and why Kindle 2.0 will arrive around Feb 9th (give or take a week) -
Edit: TechCrunch is saying their source is slating a Quarter 1 release for the kindle (ironically their post came out just 15 minutes after mine) and that leaked kindle 2.0 photos are correct (that sucks). Also that Mr. Bezos delayed a slated October 2008 release to make software updates (hopefully good). And I’m not going to link to them since instead of linking to BGR and actual newsbreakers they link to crunchgear.
- After Oprah’s recommendation the Kindle first went out of stock, and then shipping delays increased from 2-3 weeks, to 3-4 weeks.
- The delays could be due to much higher than anticipated sales – which sold out all available Kindle stock, or due to a mechanical fault that severely delayed the number of kindles available.
- At the point that it was November 24th, and still 3-4 week kindle shipping delays, it became a certainty that these people would not receive their Kindle in time for Christmas.
- Suddenly sometime between Nov 23rd and Nov 24th, the delays changed from 3-4 weeks to 11-13 weeks.
Kindle 2 arrives Feb 9th
- Now couple this with the fact that Kindle 2.0 is almost certainly slated for a 2009 release. If we assume that it’s a first week of Feb release, it’s a given that a non trivial number of people would return their kindle 1.0 and order kindle 2.0.
- Here’s what Jeff Bezos probably told the Kindle team - “We’ve run out of Kindle 1.0, we don’t have any more kindle 1.0s to sell for Christmas. There’s the whole kindle to kindle 2.0 transition and issues with customers being unhappy. Kindle 2.0 is technologically better, we have enough time to ramp up production and meet demand. It makes more sense to ramp up and improve Kindle 2.0 production facilities than put effort into increasing Kindle 1.0 manufacturing facilities … What’s the Solution? … Let’s just switch over to selling Kindle 2.0. If you ordered in time and are getting your kindle for Christmas – congrats. If not, we’ll just sell you Kindle 2.0 instead – a free upgrade (Edit: if it is in fact more expensive than Kindle 1.0)”.
- The obvious clue is the sudden jump from 3-4 week shipping delays to 11-13 week delays. There is no way Amazon sold out 8 weeks of Kindles in 1 day or found a new manufacturing bug that wiped out 2 months of Kindles.
- This solves a lot of issues – the whole transition to Kindle 2.0 issue is elegantly solved. Customers aren’t disappointed about waiting for and then not getting their Kindle for Christmas.
This might seem like a leap – saying Amazon is going to ship you Kindle 2.0 if you order Kindle 1.0 now. However, you have to admit that it makes a lot of sense. 11 weeks from Nov 24th is Feb 9th – and that’s my expected Kindle 2.0 release date. Note: This is a guess/conjecture - I take no legal or other responsibility – you might very well see the same old kindle 1.0 in the package in early Feb. Amazon should come clear about this. Also In Lee left a comment on another Kindle 2.0 post here -
I bet they won’t release Kindle 2.0 until Amazon’s extended holiday return period is over. Otherwise, Amazon risks having too many people returning Kindle 1.0s in exchange for the new model.
I wonder when Amazon’s extended holiday return period ends?
“Items sold by Amazon.com and shipped between November 1 and December 31, 2008, may be returned until January 31, 2009 for a full refund, subject to our other returns restrictions listed below.”
Which adds even more reason to have a Feb 9th release date for the Kindle 2.0. (Edit: Coincidentally, the Oprah $50 off coupon ended Nov 1st – this seems more and more like clearing out Kindle stock this Christmas season to release Kindle 2.0 early next year).
Filed under: availability, kindle 2 Tagged: | kindle 2.0, kindle 2.0 arrives Feb 9th
[...] Nov 25th edit: I’m now predicting a Feb 9th Kindle 2.0 release. I have a post with the Kindle 2.0 release date analysis, and why I think Version 2.0 comes out right after Amazon’s Extended Holiday Return Period [...]
well, that tears is.
if the real kindle 2.0 is that hideous, crippled POS we saw from BGR, i wont be getting one. maybe theyll figure it out with the kindle 3.0.
I just got my Kindle on Monday. They’re now going on ebay for $750…
I dunno. Your assessment of the situation relies on a lot of assumptions that don’t seem to add up. The Kindle shipments being delayed could be for any number of reasons, and assuming that it’s because of Kindle 2 is a very long stretch to make. Not saying it isn’t possible, but I wouldn’t mark my calendar either.
Also, I feel such conjecture only encourages the mentality of “why buy a Kindle 1 when Kindle 2 is coming out”. Unless there is actual evidence (IE, not of the speculative or anecdotal variety) a topic like this serves no purpose other than to instill doubt in potential Kindle consumers.
Isn’t the E-Ink screen being manufactured by a single company (E-Ink Corporation)? It would follow that any company, no matter how large, would be limited by the number of screens they can acquire from this source. That would explain Amazon’s inability to meet demand.
Your speculation doesn’t seem to add up. Do you mean to say that Amazon isn’t meeting demand for some elaborate plan to make the Kindle 2 more appealing? This doesn’t make sense. More likely Amazon’s stock of Kindles is limited to the supply of E-Ink technology that E-Ink Corp can manufacture for them. Oprah’s recommendation couple with the approach of the holidays results in an explosion of demand that E-Ink Corp, and thus Amazon, cannot meet. Remember: E-Ink Corp supplies several companies with screens, and Amazon.com is not their only client.
That seems like the more likely scenario IMO.
@caion – i’m not the one instilling doubt in potential customers. a delay of 11-13 weeks and no firm release date for kindle 2 is what’s doing it.
@radio babylon – i agree with you that the kindle 2 doesn’t look like a visual improvement. i just hope that the software improvements are significant enough to compensate.
What bothers me is all this speculation about the Kindle 2 which is based on little to no information. Tech Crunch started the rumors of the Kindle 2, or so I’m told, and the basis of that rumor seemed to be little more than “well, they SHOULD put out a new unit.” Speculation based on expectation. Add Boy Genius throwing out some pics, which may or may not be fake, and the rumor mill turns.
I’m still waiting for actual information and not the conjecture of blogs who talk as if they have the facts yet show us nothing. Exactly when did rumor and innuendo replace facts and evidence as good journalism?
As far as I am concerned, Kindle 2 does not exist and has never existed. Sure there will be a next iteration of the Kindle, but it will not be “the” Kindle 2 that the blogs have dreamed up. I think that someone sitting at his computer tried to predict the next Kindle based on current trends in consumer electronics progression, and guessed wrong. The pictures are merely playing upon the rumor to get more clicks.
It’s a self-fulfilling prophesy. Amazon has to upgrade the Kindle eventually, and the rumor will persist as long as it has to, and when Amazon finally does unveil something everyone will go “You see? Told you!” With this convenient setup they can’t be wrong. They can simply save face until the inevitable happens.
yes – I get your point.
- techcrunch/crunchgear predicted an october release, and now they’re backtracking and saying it’s going to be Q1.
- BGR released photos. again – may or may not be true.
I don’t know if their sources are valid.
for me – I’m just reading the tea leaves – it’s conjecture. you have to admit that delays increasing from 3-4 weeks to 11-13 weeks in a couple of days is pretty sketchy.
I’ll be v. clear again that I’m not claiming ‘leaked sources’ or anything of that sort. Its just a hypothesis based on data points.
and it’s something that’s worth talking about because there is a lot of interest in when kindle 2.0 comes out.
The basis of the feb 9th date/rumor for me is the jump in the delays and the extended holiday period – purely analysis. No hand waving, and no claims of leaked sources.
As someone who has been burned by this (I decided to buy a kindle the *day* that this insane delay was announced), this all seems weird. So Amazon isn’t going to sell ANY more kindles this holiday season? And it isn’t even black Friday yet? They can’t have planned the holiday season to go this way; there must have been some incredible screw ups along the way to this point.
The first thing I thought was that a factory or a warehouse must have burnt down or suffered some other calamity. Barring that, the theory in this post seems slightly plausible.
(It’s a risky strategy for Amazon: they have to turn away thousands of new customers in the next month, and hope that these customers will still be around and interested in your product three months from now. It’s far from ideal.)
And so … Amazon’s not going to sell any kindles in January either? After the holiday crush in which they lost a ton of sales? What happens if an existing kindle breaks? Is Amazon going to be able to replace it during this time period?
I’m hoping some credible competitors emerge. (Hello, Apple?) Amazon clearly doesn’t have enough manufacturing experience to be the sole provider of something as cool as a Kindle-like device.
Noah, exactly my point – there has to be some major reason for Amazon to introduce a 3 month delay. And a manufacturing mess-up (a huge one) or the transition to Kindle 2.0 are the only two plausible explanations.
If a competitor introduces a good product in the mid December to mid January vacuum they would clean house.
I’m sure Amazon are scrambling to have something ready by beginning January.
[...] 2009), jedoch wird es Gerüchten zufolge Anfang Februar soweit sein. Die Kollegen von “ireaderreview.com” legen sich bereits schon auf den 9. Februar (USA) [...]
[...] Rather ironically, I have this date spelled out in an earlier Nov 25th post – The post is literally titled ‘Kindle 2.0 Arrives Feb 9th …’. [...]