Kindle Review – Kindle Fire Review, Kindle 4 Review

2009 is going to be a make or break year for the Kindle. Its only appropriate that I list out my hunches for what happens with the Amazon Kindle in 2009.

On the surface a technologically advanced Apple iBook/iTouch seems like a kindle killer. However, we only have to look at how Sony’s PlayStation 3 is a painful third and the Xbox360 is second to the Wii to realize that serving the market need is worth more than technological advances.

Overall, I feel Amazon will continue to make big mistakes – however, they’ll be the #1 eReader for all of 2009. Here are my Top 10 Kindle Predictions -

1. There will be millions of Kindles sold – The figure will be close to 3 million. Amazon will continue to actively downplay estimates and will refuse to divulge sales. An ‘expert analyst’ will predict 2 million kindle sales in 2009, and then revise the figure to 5 million.
2. Amazon will have more out of stock disasters – Kindle 2 and Kindle TextBook Edition will both face shortages when released and Amazon will again mess up during the Holiday season. The huge buzz created will teach Amazon to doctor supply shortages every 6 or so months.
3. Amazon’s TextBook Kindle will get really bad critical reviews, and will sell a ton. Its sales will outpace sales of Kindle 2 and Kindle 1 (if that’s still being sold). Students everywhere will love it, and parents will jump at the opportunity to get their children something that encourages reading and studies as opposed to wasting time and playing games.
4. Apple will release a large screen touch in Oct to Nov 2009. The 9″ Apple iTouch will be targeted at netbooks, and not at the Kindle. ‘Experts’ will still try to spin it as a Kindle Killer. In their eyes, Apple’s 9 inch Touch will become the biggest potential eReader i.e. it will have the most people who could potentially buy ebooks (I’m obviously ruling out the iPhone as its screen size is too low to be a viable eReader).  This will however not translate into a high number of actual ebooks sold and the Kindle will remain the #1 ecosystem for ebooks. Despite this, the aforementioned ‘Experts’ will hand Apple the eReader crown.
5. Kindle will go international – probably in March, and definitely before Christmas season. International sales will be significant i.e. >10% of total sales (including textbook kindle). Amazon will mess up their supply line for international sales too – and the Kindle will remain out of stock for most countries for large periods.
6. Sony will release a wireless ereader with a really inelegant wireless feature (this is rumored for March – courtesy a reader). Sony will sell less than 500,000 readers in 2009. They will introduce a color Reader by end 2009 – However, Apple will get all the press and a top 2 spot. Sony will try to fire the team that set its Reader strategy, only to find that the PS3 marketing team was responsible.
7. The ereader market will become crowded – with a number of companies trying to wrest the #2 spot from Sony’s Reader. A lot of ebook reading software companies will start targeting netbooks aggressively. A lot of these same ebook reader software companies will die out as they realize that the overwhelming majority of people downloading their software are Steve Jobs’ chosen few i.e. the 54% of american adults that read 1 or less book per year.
8. More than one kindle self-published author will be offered a book contract. A kindle specific rankings site focusing on self published authors will become very popular. It will not be an amazon site.  Amazon won’t have any issues because 90%+ of books bought for the kindle will still be though amazon. All of this will grow Amazon’s Book Publishing 2.0 ecosystem.
9. A lot of newspapers will die – Kindle subscriptions will hit the 100K+ mark for multiple newspapers. At least 1 kindle specific newspaper will be released (targeting no-one except kindle owners) and will get 10,000+ subscriptions within the first few months.
10. Google Book Search will start selling out of print and in print books – There are currently approximately 3 million people a month who use Google Book Search. That number will at least double in the first 3 months after Google Books is announced. More than one company will litigate alleging that the agreement Google struck with publishers is illegal. It won’t matter because Google’s lobbyist group in the capital is second only to Microsoft’s.

Amazon understands their customers really, really well. While most other companies are building what they think book lovers want, Amazon has the privilege of knowing almost exactly what customers want – this creates a strategic advantage that is hard to beat. I wouldn’t put it past Steve Jobs to figure out how to appeal to people who love books – however, given his recent health problems and the fact that netbooks have cut severely into the Mac’s share of the laptop market, there are lots of other things on his mind.

It’s going to be a Kindle 2009.

Filed under: kindle Tagged: | kindle 2009, kindle predictions