Update from Feb 9th, 2009 8:22 am - Amazon now has Kindle 2.0 Pre-Orders – It ships on Feb 24th – however, buy it now to get your place in line (and it might very well sell out). Also, if you’re a Kindle 1.0 owner, order before midnight today to get priority in line.
Next Sunday is important – Amazon’s Holiday Returns deadline ends on Saturday and that frees Amazon up to announce Kindle 2.0.
The question is -
Will Amazon allow pre-orders of the Kindle 2.0, 2-3 weeks before its actually in stock?
The obvious answer would seem to be No. However, there are a few reasons I wouldn’t be too surprised if Amazon actually allows Kindle 2 pre-orders -
- Amazon has lost a ton of sales – all these weeks of no Kindle stock, huge Kindle shipping delays (still 5-7 weeks), and no news of Kindle 2 has meant more and more sales lost.
- Sales of used Kindles are pretty impressive (speaking of which there is a used kindle available for $300 right now, and another for $359). However, that is not adding to the user base.
- Competitors are getting some of these lost customers. Sony reported that it has sold tens of thousands of Sony Readers in the UK (the number quoted was 30,000). Of course, if Kindle 2.0 is not released worldwide those numbers aren’t relevant.
- The Kindle being sold-out is pretty much a fact of life now. The pent up demand means Kindle 2 is almost certainly going to be sold-out too. Pre-Orders would not make much of a difference. In fact they might be important in helping Amazon show that there is still huge demand for the Kindle 2.0 by having it sold-out again.
The more I think of it, the more there seems to be this thread of scarcity and human reaction to it running through the sales and resultant lack of availability of lots of superstar products -
- Nintendo was accused of creating artificial shortages for the Wii. Of course, the Wii sells huge numbers.
- Apple creates this same scarcity too. iPods and iPhones sell like crazy, and probably would even without the additional pull of scarcity.
- And now Amazon seems to be doing it with the Kindle. And, at some level, they need to continue these Kindle shortages – to maintain the Kindle’s reputation as a superstar product.
A lot of product sales tells people that a lot of other people are buying the product, and social proof dictates they get it too. The product being sold out (or on the verge of it)creates scarcity and the ‘get it now’ mentality. A product being sold out regularly triggers both buttons and helps sales even more. So, the best strategy would seem to be to supply just a little less product than the demand, see how much the demand spikes up, and then again, supply just a little than demand.
Amazon seems to be running this strategy throughout – except, after the Oprah announcement, they truly ran out of Kindles – creating a much longer wait than they would have liked. However, Kindle 2, partly because of the long interlude, has to do well.
It becomes imperative for Amazon to show that Kindle 2 is a bestseller. And one way to increase the number of sales is pre-orders. Another, of course, is a kindle 2 coupon. I feel that one of these is going to come into play in February.
Overall, I feel (i was right) - Amazon has started accepting Kindle 2.0 pre-orders Feb 9th - a few weeks before the actual Kindle 2.0 release (Feb 24th).
Filed under: kindle 2 Tagged: | kindle 2 pre-order, kindle 2 thoughts
more speculation on CNET
http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-18438_7-10147101-82.html?tag=mncol
Hi,
I was hoping I could get in touch with blog moderator. I recently contacted FoxIt regarding their pdf reader (eSlick) and it’s capability to “reflow” pdf’s. I sent them a 2 column pdf with images and they sent me back a “relowed” version and I would like to share its strengths and weaknesses, with the hope of a future discussion of expectations for kindle 2.0′s pdf “reflow” capability.
This is where i get REALLY confused. I ordered a Kindle in November. Still on backorder. Not supposed to get it until late February, early March. Would i be able to cancel my order? What will they do with all those people waiting? No one will want it, am i right?
Diane, my guess is that everyone gets a Kindle 2.
There are next to zero kindles shipping according to internet reports and comments I’m seeing. So since sometime in December end through now, there haven’t been kindles shipping. Which hints at either a truly catastrophic kindle shortage or more likely that kindle 1.0 is going to be replaced by kindle 2.0. And perhaps everyone who ordered kindle, get kindle 2.0 in mid to end February.
And yes – you can cancel your order and order Kindle 2.0 if they continue with Kindle 1.0. for now, I’d recommend keeping the order. You always have 30 days after the kindle arrives to return it, in case you decide the new version is better.
I ordered a kindle about a week or two after they posted the original sold out and that it would ship for (i think) 11-15 weeks, going with the hopes that i would recieve a kindle 2 when they came out. I recieved a kindle last week in the mail. Thought about opening the box to see if it was a kindle 2 or not but instead i had them send it back. So i think possibly even though they are still saying they are out of stock they are shipping them
If Amazon ships Kindle 2s instead of Kindle 1s to those on the waiting list, wouldn’t that mean the new pricing will be the same as the old? Or will they just bill when shipped at the newest price?
My guess is that they’re going to process all returned Kindles from Christmas once the return deadline passes and send them all out to fulfill the earliest existing orders, then they’ll unveil the new Kindle 2.0 in mid February and upgrade all existing orders. The fact that estimated ship time is February 24th and has been that for months now suggests that they have a firm date on when they’ll be able to fill all the orders at once.
I’m guessing they’ll announce in mid-Feb and start taking early orders immediately, to help gauge demand and adjust production.