The flurry of interest around Kindle Sales estimates and Kindle 2.0 reminded me of something interesting and worth discussing – Kindle and iPod comparisons. The numbers for iPods sold in the first 14 months (5 quarters) of its lifecycle were (125K + 57K + 54K + 140K + 219K) 595K. The details are at the end of the post.
I’m actually going to pull up a range from my Kindle Sales estimates post ( from Aug 2008 ) –
My overall estimate for total Kindle sales through end of 2008 is between 240K and 600K, with the single likeliest figure being around half a million kindles sold.
This was well before the Oprah endorsement. Given the Oprah effect on Kindle sales, it would be reasonable to assume that actual Kindle sales were somewhere between the Most Probable and Best Case estimates i.e.
- Best Case Kindle Sales estimates up to end of 2008 – 600K.
- Most Probable Kindle Sales estimates up to end of 2008 – 500K.
Given that the end of 2008 corresponds to roughly 14 months of Kindle availability (if you can call it that, given the frequent sold-out status) it’s rather amazing to see how closely estimated cumulative Kindle Sales match iPod sales.
I’ve actually used the exact same Kindle Best Sales estimates chart I had created in end of Aug 2008, and added on actual iPod Sales figures.
This chart, at some level, scares me. The iPod sales figures are mostly from official Apple releases.
iPod Sales Details
- Jan 16th, 2002 – We launched the wildly popular iPod and sold more than 125,000 of them in two months. This is First Quarter 2002 (equivalent to last 3 months of 2001).
- May 14th, 2002 – During the second quarter, the Company sold approximately 57,000 iPods for net sales of approximately $21 million. This is Jan, Feb, Mar 2002.
- 3rd Quarter Figures are 54,000 based on the 3rd Quarter 2003 results 10Q which shows year to year comparison.
- 4th Quarter Figures are 140K iPods sold based on this article.
- 1st Quarter 2003 Figures are 219K , based on 1st Quarter 2004 results -
Apple shipped 829 thousand Macintosh® units during the quarter, up 12 percent from the year-ago quarter, as well as 733 thousand iPod® units, up 235 percent from the year-ago quarter.
Kindle Sales and the Importance of Kindle 3.0
It was only in the 12th Quarter of iPod sales i.e. at the end of 3 years of it being on the market that more than 1 million iPods were sold in a quarter. The 3rd generation of the iPod classic and the 1st generation Mini were already out. And the 4th Generation iPod followed soon after.
Which means that Kindle 3.0 and Kindle Textbook edition are probably more important than Kindle 2.0. It also ties in with the Microsoft belief that its the V3.0 release that has to hit the home run.
Jeff Bezos had this all planned out – at least I think so – he’s talked about how Amazon is in this for the long term and there will be a Kindle 2.0, Kindle 3.0 … even a Kindle 10.0. Unless Steve Jobs recovers and comes back, the Kindle achieving iPod like success is no longer inconceivable.
Filed under: availability, kindle Tagged: | kindle ipod, kindle sales estimates
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Why should Steve Jobs care about Kindle sales? Apple doesn’t need, and has no interest, in controlling every bit of media out there.
The release of the Kindle app for iPhone indicates that Apple may be more interested in partnering with Amazon than competing with them.
an then Apple sold just as many iPads in a single day.
Thanks for your comment. Now all that’s left is the 90% of the OS market Windows has.