March 10th update: The Kindle 2 is still in stock, and there is no Kindle 2 coupon yet. I am still standing by my prediction that a Kindle coupon will be out sometime in March.
It’s Feb 17th and that means the Feb 24th Kindle 2 Release Date is just a week away. I’d just been thinking about how I’d go about selling Kindle 2 and thought I’d note down my main thoughts and I feel there’s a chance Amazon uses most of this as they understand human psychology much better than I do. Also, you can replace ‘Kindle 2 coupon code’ by ‘Kindle 2 price cut’ and it’d have the same effect and it wouldn’t work as well because a coupon can have a time limit and force people to make a decision.
Kindle 2 Release Thoughts
- Kindle 2 isn’t sold out yet. The initial Kindle sold out in 4.5 hours. After the Oprah announcement, the Kindle sold out in 7 or so days. So either Amazon has a lot more stock or demand is not as much.
- On second thought, the pre-orders strategy is genius – It gives Amazon a really good idea of what demand is so that they can match it (or exceed it by just a little bit), letting them set things up to have the Kindle 2 sell out very soon after actual release.
- Anticipation increases the pleasure – Kindle 2 owners that have been waiting for the Kindle 2 will like it much more – that’s just basic human nature.
- Pre-orders also spread out demand so that there are a lot of sales between the Feb 9th announcement and actual Feb 24th release that otherwise would get clubbed together on the 24th.
When will Kindle 2 Sell Out?
- If Manufacturing Capacity has really been ramped up, then Amazon will be looking to move a lot of Kindles. The best way to do that is to use four separate events i.e Feb 9th announcement and pre-orders, a Feb 24th release, Kindle 2 selling out a week or so after, and then a Kindle 2 coupon and new stock 3-4 weeks after that.
- My prediction is that we’ll see Kindle 2 sell-out 5-7 days after the Feb 24th release date.
- This will in turn create another long waiting line and lots more demand for Kindle 2. And more owners who had to wait for the Kindle 2 and thus are more apt to appreciate it.
Will there be a Kindle 2 coupon?
Strategically, a Kindle 2 coupon would make the most sense 3 or so weeks after the Kindle 2 gets sold out and the initial rush to get in line has subsided. Based on that assumption -
- The Kindle 2 coupon will be $50 or $60 off. $60 off would hit the sub $300 mark and would really ignite sales.
- It’ll probably come into play 3-4 weeks after the Kindle 2 gets sold out. Perhaps end of March 2009.
- It’ll be the fourth big event. My prediction for a big event after that would be Kindle Textbook Edition – or perhaps just it being announced.
- A Kindle 2 coupon becomes particularly important since the Recession is really taking hold. The $359 price has anchored the Kindle 2′s value to $359 and set this high bar in people’s minds. When people see a Kindle 2 available for sub $300, they’ll jump at the chance.
I’d randomly suggested that Amazon should throw in a Kindle coupon along with the Oprah announcement. Amazon actually did have a Kindle coupon for $50 off and it turned out to be a great strategy as a lot of people have left comments saying the coupon made them take the jump.
I’d also called the fact that Amazon would allow for Kindle 2 pre-orders. I do feel that there is a very clear pattern to how Amazon is creating and ramping up demand for Kindle 2.
I feel pretty certain that the next two big Kindle 2 events we’ll see are it selling out, perhaps towards end Feb, and a Kindle 2 coupon code, probably released around March end. We’ve seen these same patterns with iPhones and the Wii and even the Xbox 360 to a certain extent. Makes me wonder if demand creates scarcity or scarcity and social proof creates demand.
Filed under: availability Tagged: | kindle 2 coupon
The price is still crazy, given that you can buy an ePC for around the same amount of cash! And I can’t understand why they won’t give us a folder/category system to organize books. I have 32 pages of books on my Kindle 1 and it is a pain. Folder/category system would be an easy software fix.
I found the notion of this coupon enticing and so decided to wait on buying Kindle 2. Do you still think there will be a coupon and that it will arrive several weeks after the K2 has sold out, an event that still hasn’t happened yet? Thanks for your thoughts. By the way this is a great site. It has been my constant source for resourceful information and keen insight, for what I believe could be a substantial medium. I look forward to it.
Michael, I think there’s a good chance Amazon will release a coupon to egg on sales.
The reason that Kindle 2 hasn’t sold out is probabyl a combination of more than enough manufacturing capacity now and also the recession/depression.
I’d wait another 2 weeks and then get 1. Also, there’s a 30 day return window so you can ask for any coupon rebate that comes out to be applied to you instead of returning and buying a new K2.
Thanks a lot. 30 day return window? I had no idea. I think I’ll take your advice.
Great article! After reading pages of reviews, articles, etc I am very close to pulling the trigger for a K2. It sure would be great if Amazon offered their own stimulus package and knocked off $50 or $60. I think it would really put the K2 in a lot of hands. If they want the eReader to really get a foothold, that would me the way to do it.
William I so agree with you . There are of of us in my family waiting for a coupon or a sale besides that shiping and handling deal don’t they realize we are in a recession.
Oprah where are when we need you. Coupon ,Coupon.
I. too, am waiting for the coupon. Or should I say, hoping for a coupon? I want to buy two. A $100 savings would be fabulous.
Now that we are into June, what do you think the dateline might look like?
Susan – no idea at the moment. However, the hope is that the release of the Kindle DX would lead to Amazon considering a coupon on the Kindle 2, or if a DX competitor is announced by Apple, then perhaps even for DX itself.