Kindle 2 Coupon in March + Kindle 2 Out of Stock Feb 28th Predictions

March 10th update: The Kindle 2 is still in stock, and there is no Kindle 2 coupon yet. I am still standing by my prediction that a Kindle coupon will be out sometime in March.

It’s Feb 17th and that means the Feb 24th Kindle 2 Release Date is just a week away. I’d just been thinking about how I’d go about selling Kindle 2 and thought I’d note down my main thoughts and I feel there’s a chance Amazon uses most of this as they understand human psychology much better than I do. Also, you can replace ‘Kindle 2 coupon code’ by ‘Kindle 2 price cut’ and it’d have the same effect and it wouldn’t work as well because a coupon can have a time limit and force people to make a decision.

Kindle 2 Release Thoughts

  1. Kindle 2 isn’t sold out yet. The initial Kindle sold out in 4.5 hours. After the Oprah announcement, the Kindle sold out in 7 or so days. So either Amazon has a lot more stock or demand is not as much. 
  2. On second thought, the pre-orders strategy is genius – It gives Amazon a really good idea of what demand is so that they can match it (or exceed it by just a little bit), letting them set things up to have the Kindle 2 sell out very soon after actual release.  
  3. Anticipation increases the pleasure – Kindle 2 owners that have been waiting for the Kindle 2 will like it much more – that’s just basic human nature.
  4. Pre-orders also spread out demand so that there are a lot of sales between the Feb 9th announcement and actual Feb 24th release that otherwise would get clubbed together on the 24th.

When will Kindle 2 Sell Out?

  1. If Manufacturing Capacity has really been ramped up, then Amazon will be looking to move a lot of Kindles. The best way to do that is to use four separate events i.e Feb 9th announcement and pre-orders, a Feb 24th release, Kindle 2 selling out a week or so after, and then a Kindle 2 coupon and new stock 3-4 weeks after that.
  2. My prediction is that we’ll see Kindle 2 sell-out 5-7 days after the Feb 24th release date.
  3. This will in turn create another long waiting line and lots more demand for Kindle 2. And more owners who had to wait for the Kindle 2 and thus are more apt to appreciate it.

Will there be a Kindle 2 coupon?

Strategically, a Kindle 2 coupon would make the most sense 3 or so weeks after the Kindle 2 gets sold out and the initial rush to get in line has subsided. Based on that assumption -

  1. The Kindle 2 coupon will be $50 or $60 off.  $60 off would hit the sub $300 mark and would really ignite sales.
  2. It’ll probably come into play 3-4 weeks after the Kindle 2 gets sold out. Perhaps end of March 2009.
  3. It’ll be the fourth big event. My prediction for a big event after that would be Kindle Textbook Edition – or perhaps just it being announced.
  4. A Kindle 2 coupon becomes particularly important since the Recession is really taking hold. The $359 price has anchored the Kindle 2′s value to $359 and set this high bar in people’s minds. When people see a Kindle 2 available for sub $300, they’ll jump at the chance.

I’d randomly suggested that Amazon should throw in a Kindle coupon along with the Oprah announcement. Amazon actually did have a Kindle coupon for $50 off and it turned out to be a great strategy as a lot of people have left comments saying the coupon made them take the jump.

I’d also called the fact that Amazon would allow for Kindle 2 pre-orders.  I do feel that there is a very clear pattern to how Amazon is creating and ramping up demand for Kindle 2.

I feel pretty certain that the next two big Kindle 2 events we’ll see are it selling out, perhaps towards end Feb, and a Kindle 2 coupon code, probably released around March end. We’ve seen these same patterns with iPhones and the Wii and even the Xbox 360 to a certain extent. Makes me wonder if demand creates scarcity or scarcity and social proof creates demand.

9 Responses

  1. The price is still crazy, given that you can buy an ePC for around the same amount of cash! And I can’t understand why they won’t give us a folder/category system to organize books. I have 32 pages of books on my Kindle 1 and it is a pain. Folder/category system would be an easy software fix.

  2. I found the notion of this coupon enticing and so decided to wait on buying Kindle 2. Do you still think there will be a coupon and that it will arrive several weeks after the K2 has sold out, an event that still hasn’t happened yet? Thanks for your thoughts. By the way this is a great site. It has been my constant source for resourceful information and keen insight, for what I believe could be a substantial medium. I look forward to it.

    • Michael, I think there’s a good chance Amazon will release a coupon to egg on sales.
      The reason that Kindle 2 hasn’t sold out is probabyl a combination of more than enough manufacturing capacity now and also the recession/depression.
      I’d wait another 2 weeks and then get 1. Also, there’s a 30 day return window so you can ask for any coupon rebate that comes out to be applied to you instead of returning and buying a new K2.

  3. Thanks a lot. 30 day return window? I had no idea. I think I’ll take your advice.

  4. Great article! After reading pages of reviews, articles, etc I am very close to pulling the trigger for a K2. It sure would be great if Amazon offered their own stimulus package and knocked off $50 or $60. I think it would really put the K2 in a lot of hands. If they want the eReader to really get a foothold, that would me the way to do it.

    • William I so agree with you . There are of of us in my family waiting for a coupon or a sale besides that shiping and handling deal don’t they realize we are in a recession.

  5. Oprah where are when we need you. Coupon ,Coupon.

  6. I. too, am waiting for the coupon. Or should I say, hoping for a coupon? I want to buy two. A $100 savings would be fabulous.

    Now that we are into June, what do you think the dateline might look like?

    • Susan – no idea at the moment. However, the hope is that the release of the Kindle DX would lead to Amazon considering a coupon on the Kindle 2, or if a DX competitor is announced by Apple, then perhaps even for DX itself.

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