Netbooks are another technology I’m fascinated by (besides the Kindle 2) and seeing the trends there and Apple’s reaction to those trends has a lot of parallels to Steve Jobs’ dismissal of the books market and of the Kindle.
First, Steve Jobs and Netbooks
Steve Jobs has dismissed netbooks even as they sold 12 million+ netbooks in 2008 and ate into Mac sales. Steve Jobs has said – “Not a lot of them getting sold”, “the market is nascent”, and also – “Our DNA won’t let us ship a $500 computer that’s a piece of junk.”
How has it worked out for Apple? Well, Apple has lost unit-sales market share in the PC market in Nov, Dec, and January. Additionally,
A survey conducted by the blogs 24/7 Wall Street and The Channel Checkers reports that sales of both iPods and Macs “have remains soft” in February. The survey checked in with 15 Apple stores, and found that 66% said Mac sales had dropped in February from January.
So obviously, the netbook problem is a very real one for Apple. Yet, Tim Cook (interim CEO) again reiterated Job’s mantra of ‘We can’t make a $500 computer that isn’t a piece of junk’ on a Jan 21st conference call.
Next, Steve Jobs and Kindle 2/Kindle
The obvious suspect is this quote about the Kindle -
“The whole conception is flawed at the top,” Steve Jobs told the New York Times a little over a year ago, pointing out that 40% of Americans make it through one book a year or less. “People don’t read anymore.”
Apple has to be looking at the various iPhone reading apps and the deals they are signing with book publishers. Apple is the most logical candidate to provide eBooks – via iTunes.
Apple is already selling movies, TV shows, and music. There’s little incremental cost, and a lot of benefits that accrue from expanding to Books.
Finally, Reasons that an Apple iBook, or iNetbook might be on the way -
- It’s typical for Steve Jobs to lampoon a niche and then release a product for it. Steve Jobs always uses misdirection - saying that iPod would never play videos and then releasing iTouch and iPhone is one such example.
- With iTunes, the iTouch, the iPhone App Store, and reading Apps for the iPhone, Apple has all the ingredients to create a viable competitor to the Kindle 2.
- From a NYTimes blog -
The company (a search startup/company) spotted Web visits from an unannounced Apple product with a display somewhere between an iPhone and a MacBook. Is it the iPhone 3.0 or the NetMac 1.0?
Do note that a few people are already running Mac OS X on netbooks like the Dell Mini 9, and it might very well be one of these.
- With a 9″ or 10″ iTouch, Apple can attack the netbook market, and also attack Kindle 2 and other eReaders.
- There are already rumors of a Fall 2009 release of a 9″ iTouch to target the netbook market.
- Apple needs a product to match the danger of Windows 7 running on Netbooks, and even more dangerously, the horror of a multi-touch capable netbook running Windows 7 and beating Apple at the coolness factor.
What should Amazon do?
Well, with Kindle Mobile, Amazon is doing the exact right thing – use netbooks, and even Apple’s own iPhones, and other mobile devices to expand the reach of the Kindle Store and fight fire with fire.
Amazon also really needs to do the whole Apple/Jonathan Ive ’100 iterations of the design until we get it right’ design approach and create something much, much better looking, and with great usability.
And finally, Amazon needs to add a Kindle App Store to add on thousands of developers for free. If they can sell $100+ Kindle 2 covers, they can certainly open up an App Store for Kindle 2 and let developers sell $5 Folders applications and $3 Advanced MP3 Player applications.
What should Netbook manufacturers do?
Keep making great netbooks for sub $400 prices and eating into Mac sales. Going from <1 million sold in 2007 to 12+ million sold in 2008 is amazing, and the recession is going to help sales even more.
Filed under: apple ibook reader Tagged: | apple ireader, kindle vs apple
I’m a computer guy, but I’ll tell you that I’m really resistant to the whole concept of turning the Kindle into a general purpose computer, in even the mildest manner. For reading I simply want something that works and doesn’t need maintaining. A PC or a Mac are great in that they do most everything. But getting them to that point and then maintaining them requires quite a bit of resources in my experience.
I do agree that Amazon needs to fix a few usability issues and keep innovating. But, leave it a reader and add support for Kindle books on the other platforms for those that so choose.
My $.02,
I agree completely with AI. I bought a Kindle 2 for the sole purpose of reading books and the Wall St. Journal. I’m an owner of not only an iPhone but also a subcompact laptop (though not a netbook, though I’m considering buying one for my wife later this year).
I’m getting a Kindle for the sole purpose of using it as a reading device. I don’t need another general purpose device and absolutely believe that the key for a book-like device is a very readable display with minimal eye strain. An iPhone or laptop does not have such a display. Sure, I use both the laptop and iPhone all the time, but they really don’t work for heavy-duty reading. (In fact, I’m switching from an online subscription to the Journal to the Kindle subscription for that very reason.)
There may well come a day where an e-Ink surface may well have the refresh rates to support a general purpose computer, but we’re not there yet. If Apple comes out with a slate I may well buy it instead of a netbook for my wife to use as her email/surfing/Facebook computer. But I can’t see using a slate with a CCFL backlit LCD display for reading – it just doesn’t make sense from either a power consumption or an eyestrain standpoint.
And I really don’t think I’ll miss doing lots of surfing on the Kindle. Let’s be honest. The web is an interactive multimedia environment and to do that the device needs both Flash and Javascript support. No way can an e-Ink surface handle those visually at this point.
Agree with the other two. I have a smart phone and a netbook and a Kindle. They do different things and right now the tech cannot make the Kindle a multi purpose device without sacrificing the screen, which is why I bought the Kindle.