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My prediction about the Google vs Amazon Book Wars starting at the end 2009 seems rather short-sighted now.

Google has made the following big moves since then -

1. On February 5th, Google made 1.5 mllion free public domain books available for mobile devices with Google Book Search for Mobile.
2. Around mid February, Google made changes to their terms of service so that the free public domain books scanned by Google can’t be used by other sites.  
3. March 18th, Google made 500K public domain books available in ePub format to Sony for Sony Readers. These are not publicly available. 
4. And now at the very end of May, Google has announced that it will sell ebooks and let publishers set prices.

The Book Wars have well and truly begun, and by end 2009 we’ll see Google formally become an ebook retailer.

Google will continue to claim that they are not content creators although they now have YouTube, 8 million older books to sell, and are going to start selling newer books by year end.

Google Vs Amazon Book Wars hint at something Bigger 

What’s happening is the inevitable clash as Amazon becomes bigger and starts selling more and more items and Google starts looking for new revenue streams.

The Book Wars are interesting as you see -

1. Amazon try to build a channel that sidesteps Google entirely with the Kindle. No more paying for Google Ads, no more dependence on organic and paid traffic from Google.
2. Google looks at ebooks and says – instead of sending users to Amazon or Buy.com, why don’t we sell them books ourselves.

You’ll see this trend in more and more areas -

1. As Amazon gets more success with Kindle, how much longer before Lab 126 comes out with the Kindle equivalent for buying anything. Mobile is a big opportunity for Google and also a big threat.
2. By the same token, it won’t be long before Google decides that it wants to sell digital movies and video games.

The Book Wars themselves will be Bloody

Amazon might have already stolen enough of a lead to strengthen their position for the next 5-10 years. However, Google’s entry does two things -

1. Gives publishers a means of committing suicide and slow down the adoption of ebooks. Google is going to let publishers sell ebooks for the same price as hardcovers and they will.  
2. Weakens Kindle’s hold and reduces its mindshare – Kindle and Amazon were the only strong trusted brand in the space. Google with its ‘free’ and ‘do no evil’ ideaviruses will shake Amazon’s hold. It also sets the stage for Apple to jump in with ’cool’ and ‘best user design’ and weaken Amazon’s position even further.

Amazon suddenly has to compete with two huge companies instead of one.

Google , well Google seem to be picking battles everywhere – Android for phones, Android for netbooks, Chrome as your Browser. It doesn’t seem too outside of their strategy to pick an area they don’t really have expertise in and jump in.

Closing Thoughts

The one wild card in the Book Wars is the possibility that Google and Apple are working in tandem. Google is just buying time for Apple by delaying the adoption of ebooks until Apple has their iBook/iReader out. They won’t do it publicly as it would trigger an anti-trust lawsuit.

My vote is with Google somehow working with Apple on this and their real purpose being to delay the adoption of ebooks and prevent Amazon from creating a huge ebook market controlled by Kindles.

Filed under: thoughts Tagged: | amazon vs google