Could the Kindle be the big hit this Back to School shopping season?
The Kindle DX is still sold out (2-3 week delays), and Kindle DX university trials haven’t even started yet. However, the Kindle 2 price cut and several other factors make it worthwhile to discuss the Kindle 2 and Kindle DX ‘s prospects.
Back to School Kindle – Reasons this might be the Year
Back to School success for the Kindle is long overdue. People have been talking about Back to School Kindles since Aug 2008 -
After a meeting with Amazon executives, McAdams Wright Ragen analyst Tim Bueneman told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer that Amazon sees a big opportunity in marketing the Kindle to college kids, and it’s working on an updated version of the e-reader to accommodate this.
2009 might be the year of the back to school kindle as we have a much better environment -
- Price: The $299 Kindle 2 means we finally have a sub $300 kindle. Amazon does need to add PDF support to the Kindle 2 though.
- Content: Amazon has finally tied up with textbook publishers.
- Buzz: Even politicians are talking about etextbooks and kindle per backpack.
- Tie-Ups: Blackboard has added support for coursework to be sent to Kindles (and its used at 2,200+ educational institutions). Even twitter’s not-so-secret plans talk about using Kindle to expand reach.
- Kindle DX: The Kindle DX’s PDF support and larger screen eliminate two of the major obstacles to students trying Kindles. The $489 price is still a huge obstacle.
Back to School Kindle – Reasons this might not be theYear
Back to school kindle might not be a hit because -
- Economy: Thanks to the greater depression we expect to see back to school spending drop 7.7% this year. CNN Money write (National Retail Federation survey) -
The average family with students in grades kindergarten through high school is expected to spend $548.72 on school supplies, down from $594.24 in 2008, according to the National Retail Federation.
“There’s not a lot to be excited about,” said George Whalin, president of Retail Management Consultants. “It’s going to be very challenging for retail, for a long time.”
- Far from Ideal: Neither the Kindle 2 (lack of PDF support) nor the Kindle DX (too expensive) hit the ‘close-to-ideal’ eReader profile. More on this soon.
- Technology still evolving: No color. High Price. TouchScreen not possible without affecting readability. Page Turns still slow.
- Lack of Knowledge: People still don’t have enough information about Kindles and there’s no where they can go and find out i.e. no retail locations.
- Lots of negative publicity: The kindle lawsuit is just the newest in a long line of attacks the Kindle has faced.
- Lots of Enemies: Publishers, Authors Guild, anti-DRM people.
- Competition: Apple, Google, Plastic Logic, Cheaper eReaders.
Back to School Kindle – The Wild Card
The big wild-card is -
How much support, and what type of support, will textbook publishers and universities give to Amazon and to the Kindle?
There are two scenarios here -
- Scenario 1: Textbook publishers and Universites get scared and throw a spanner in the works. Neither understands what will change, and how quickly, if/when Kindles become common in campuses – so there’s a chance they don’t really commit to the endeavour.
- Scenario 2: Textbook publishers and Universities commit fully – they feel they can kill the used textbook market, kill piracy, and help students and they put all their weight behind the Kindle.
If it’s the latter then the Amazon Kindle’s success is all but guaranteed.
My prediction is that the next year is when the Kindle 3 (with PDF support) or perhaps an Apple iReader take over campuses.
This year’s back to school kindle sales will just be a seeding of the idea of ereaders in education.
Filed under: thoughts Tagged: | back to school kindle, kindle in education
