Thought it’d be interesting to look at how analyst estimates of kindle sales figures have changed over time.
Kindle Sales Estimates Charts
Analyst estimates across the years. First we have the highest analyst estimates at various points of time -
Here is the chart for lowest sales estimates -
Its worth nothing that Mark Mahaney has since revised his estimates (multiple times). However, the 30,000 Kindles sold by May 2008 and the prediction for 467,000 kindles sold by end 2009 give a good idea of what analysts thought of the Kindle’s chances in May 2008.
Mark Mahaney now has revised estimates including predicting 4.4 million kindles sold by end 2010.
As late as Feb 3rd, 2009 analysts were negative. Imran Khan of J. P. Morgan thought total sales by end 2009 would be 500K.
Imran Khan has since updated his sales estimates to predict 10 million Kindles sold by August 2010.
Conclusion: There are no sales figures from Amazon so it’s all guesses. However, it does seem that analysts are finding new data points that are causing them to have to keep revising their estimates upwards.
Kindle Sales Estimates – Data Points
- April 24th, 2008 – Fat Knowledge estimates 210K kindles sold so far.
- May 2008 – Mark Mahaney (CitiGroup) – Number as somewhere between 10,000 and 30,000 Kindles sold to date.
- May 15 2008 – Mark Mahaney – 189,000 in 2008, 467,000 in 2009, and 2.2 million in 2010.
- June 9, 2008 – Evan Schnittman of Oxford University Press Blog. 500K kindles in 2008. 1 million kindle and Sony. Based on eInk shipments of 60-80K units per month in first half of 2008 and 120K per month in the second half.
- August 1st – TechCrunch leaked source – 240K. Scott Devitt – 500K to 750K over next 4 quarters including this one.
- August 11th, 2008 – Mark Mahaney- 378,000 in 2008, 934,000 in 2009, and 4.4 million in 2010. 40K shipments a month.
- Feb 3rd, 2009 – Mark Mahaney 500K sold in 2008???. Justin Post (Merrill Lynch) – 374,000 kindles sold. to date. Imran Khan J.P.Morgan – 500K in 2009.
- April 16th 2009 – 300K kindle 2s sold by April 16th – TechCrunch.
- June 30th, 2009 – Friedland Cowen & Co – 800K Kindles sold to date. 340K in 2008, 900K in 2009.
- August 10th – Cowen & Co. Jim Friedland and Kevin Kopelman. End 2009 – 1.5 million active kindles (that means 1 million in 2009) . 2010 – 1.8 million sales. End 2010 – 3 million active. 4% of US population a Kindle in 5 years – that’s 12.16 million.
- August 12th, 2009 – 10 million by August end 2010. J.P. Morgan’s Imran Khan.
- TechCrunch – http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/08/11/those-kindle-estimates-keep-going-up/
- Washignton Post – http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/03/AR2009020302612.html
- The ones linked in the post above.