Amazon’s official stance on the Kindle 3 release date is ‘not in 2010′.
What they really mean is -
If Apple releases a very impressive iReader or Sony’s wireless solution is really good, then we’ll hurry up our release date for the Kindle 3 and release it before the holiday season.
Else, there will be no Kindle 3 in 2010.
You have to just look at the hurried up Kindle DX release and the subsequent sell-out.
Amazon will definitely release Kindle 3 this holiday season if it sees any chance of losing out to Apple or Sony – even if it means being out of stock for large periods.
Kindle 3 Release Date Probability Chart
Here’s a basic chart with Kindle 3 Release Date estimates -
Kindle 3 Release Date - Either November 2009 or Feb 2010
Reasons Kindle 3 Release Date might be Nov 2009
Kindle 3 release in November of this year becomes much more likely if one or more of the following happen -
- Apple releases an iReader in September or October.
- Sony’s WhisperNet rival is a strong one and Amazon starts seeing Sony’s Touch 600 stealing some sales.
- Amazon sees the opportunity to consolidate its lead this holiday season.
- We start seeing an economic recovery.
November would also be exactly 2 years after the release of the Kindle 1, and set up Amazon to cash in on this year’s Holiday season.
The strongest sign that Kindle 3 will be out this holiday season is the hurried release of the Kindle DX and the amount of competition entering the market.
Amazon will almost certainly deny a release this year as there are few benefits and a lot of negatives to revealing this information early.
Reasons Kindle 3 Release Date might be Feb 2010
Apart from the fact that a Kindle 3 release date in Feb 2010 lines up very neatly with this year’s February Kindle 2 release, here are the reasons Kindle 3 will almost certainly be out by Feb 2010 -
- Apple’s iReader will almost certainly be out.
- Plastic Logic’s eReader will almost certainly be out.
- Sony’s 600 reader would have begun to get some traction.
- It would have been a year since the Kindle 2′s release and kindle owners’ appetite for upgrading their Kindle would be high.
- Technology would have improved enough to aim for lower prices or more features at the same price.
Filed under: kindle 3 Tagged: | kindle 3, kindle 3 release date
The one feature I want is the one that nobody is talking about. Electronic delivery should be available outside of the big cities. Perhaps they could use Verizon to reach those customers who live outside of the Sprint coverage area?
If that’s too much to ask, the free sample chapters should be available by computer download rather than requiring electronic delivery that doesn’t work in much of the US. Free samples were one of my favorite features before I moved to an area where I can’t get it.
really good point on the sample chapters. They’re not available outside the US so I can’t get them either.
[...] Kindle 3 Release Date Estimates from August were – 60% chance for October 2009 kindle 3 release, and 75% chance it [...]
You used the same graphic for the release of kindle dx in Europe. I’m starting to suspect that you are a bit unreliable.