November 23rd Update: I was wrong. There has been no Kindle 3 release – the Kindle 2 at $259 with free Internet is your best option for the year. Amazon also just added PDF support to the Kindle.
Nook and Sony Reader Digital Edition are both sold out – making the Kindle 2 the only wireless eReader available this year.
Kindle 3 will probably come out in Feb 2010. Thanks to the commenters for pointing out the Kindle 3 release didn’t happen.
My Kindle 3 Release Date Estimates from August were -
60% chance of an October 2009 Kindle 3 release, and a 75% chance its November 2009.
75% chance Feb 2009 Kindle 3 Release Date, and 80% chance March 2009 Kindle 3 Release Date.
Also -
If Apple releases a very impressive iReader or Sony’s wireless solution is really good, then Amazon will release Kindle 3 before the holiday season.
Amazon didn’t do that. Luckily for them Nook got sold out.
Well, Barnes & Noble (of all people) have released a very impressive eReader and Amazon has to respond.
Do we really think a $20 price cut on the global kindle is going to get the job done?
Why does Amazon need to make a big move and release Kindle 3 soon?
Firstly: There might never be another Holiday Season like this one.
- No Apple iReader (not as yet).
- No Plastic Logic.
- Only a few dangerous rivals (Sony, BN).
- Only one eReader, the Nook, that is an equal (and it doesn’t arrive until end of November).
- Sony Daily Edition doesn’t arrive until December.
- No Google Editions Store yet.
It’s a great time to release a killer Kindle 3.
Secondly: Nook has stolen the spotlight.
Nook’s feature list reads like a list of Top 5 Kindle Complaints -
PDF, Memory Card, touchscreen, sharing, etc.
Bringing it into a tie with the Kindle.
To make things worse newspaper articles comparing Nook and Amazon make pro-Nook mistakes -
- They don’t mention Kindle has Free Internet.
- They mention Free WiFi in BN stores and WiFi capability for Nook without mentioning there is no browser.
- They fall for the ‘open’ argument even though all B&N books will have DRM.
The main stream newspapers and blogs are so excited they are making up B&N advantages.
Basically, Nook is the flavor of the month.
Amazon have to steal back the attention - they don’t have any retail presence so they absolutely have to win the online and offline press coverage war.
Amazon have enough time to get out a Kindle 3 that blows away the competition
There are 5 weeks left. Amazon knows what they face in the Daily Edition. They know what they face in the Nook.
More than enough time to hurry up the Kindle 3, add some software features, and start taking preorders. Here are obvious Kindle 3 Features -
- Keep it sub $300, ideally close to $270.
- Get the same Sharing Terms that B&N got. Unless it involves higher ebook prices.
- Add PDF Support. Perhaps even ePub.
- Add some good software features i.e. things like Folders and Tagging.
- Perhaps add a touch-screen or some new advance in eInk (flexible, hard to break screens).
- Consider adding a memory card or extra on-board memory.
If Kindle 3 doesn’t come out all Amazon have left is a Kindle 2 Coupon for $50 off. That might not be enough.
Prediction: Kindle 3 Release Announcement in 1-2 weeks, Arrives in 3-4 weeks.
Very soon after the Holiday return period starts i.e. first week of November, Amazon will probably have a Kindle 3 announcement (including Kindle 3 preorders). Kindle 3 ought to start shipping 2 to 3 weeks after that.
That would be a fitting response to not only the Nook but also to Sony’s Wireless Digital Edition.
Perhaps most importantly it gives the press something to fawn over and captures people’s imagination.
The Reasons for My Kindle 3 Prediction:
- The competition factor and Nook factor discussed above.
- Amazon’s Holiday Return Period Starts November 1st. It then lasts 3 months making a December or January release of Kindle 3 almost impossible. So it’s either now or Feb 2010.
- There’s a chance that the Kindle 2 was actually delayed last year (as TechCrunch claim). Plus this November is 2 years after Kindle 1.
- Look at this year’s releases: Kindle 2 in Feb, Kindle DX in June, Kindle International in October. Those are quick releases.
- Regardless of whether we assume Kindle 3 was scheduled for this holiday season or February 2010, it would be possible to hurry it up. There are still 5 weeks.
- Plus, Amazon haven’t done a big Press Conference or anything for the International Kindle. Perhaps they’re saving all their marketing and PR muscle for a BIGGER announcement.
Mr. Bezos must have lined up another big Oprah Kindle announcement (don’t think Obama Kindle is realistic).
Whatever Amazon’s trump card for this Holiday Season is, it hasn’t been played yet.
The international kindle didn’t even get a Press Conference.
Kindle 3 would fit the bill perfectly - Mr. Bezos going on Oprah’s Show and unveiling Kindle 3.
Filed under: kindle 3 Tagged: | kindle 3, kindle 3 release date
I love your blog but your obsession with Kindle 3 being released this year is WAY off base. The idea that Amazon could “hurry up” development or production of a Kindle 3 has no basis in fact. The supply chain alone when it comes to manufacturing would make moving a Feb release to November nearly impossible.
Remember how much grief Amazon got for Kindle 1 and 2 being out of stock? Yeah, they don’t want to repeat that. Also, releasing two product generations in a single calender year would be suicide for Amazon, remember the irate Kindle 1 users? Yeah, they don’t want to repeat that either. Doing that would deter people from buying a future Kindle because they would say “why don’t I just wait six months?” Even Apple waits a year or more between iPhone/Pod updates and they certainly don’t put out competing products in the same calender year. They wait until the market is saturated then strike. I think Amazon moved up the Kindle International by a few weeks, that was their holiday release.
Lastly what would be the big new development for a Kindle 3? Color, no that is out. Touch? Perhaps but only if it doesn’t mess up reading. Everything else you mention, folders, lending, etc can be dealt with in a software update.
If the Kindle 3 does not come out this year I hope you do a posting acknowledging your mistake. If they do release it I will be more than happy to eat humble pie since it will be a boon to everyone who loves the Kindle. But looking at the facts, rather than our wishes, means that it would be difficult and highly unlikely for Amazon to release a Kindle 3 this year…
yes, i’ll do a post acknowledging my mistake.
We have a lot of time left in 2009.
Amazon have already cut prices a bit and released Kindle for PC.
We’ll just have to see what’s next.
I’ll admit, the new B&N nook looks nice and at first I thought it was going to be great, but there are plenty of hangups that MSM is simply missing because everyone wants to hate Amazon like a red-headed step-child.
All Amazon needs to do to win back a ton of support is to show everyone how much cheaper their ebooks are across the boards than B&N. Their ebooks aren’t just a little cheaper, they’re typically over ten percent cheaper in many cases.
And as you pointed out in a earlier post, the Lend to me feature is seriously flawed if they don’t impose some sort of lending limit. There most certainly will be a one or two lending option per book max.
In addition, Wi-Fi without a browser is about as useful as having internet on your watch. If internet only gives users access to a store with high prices it is going to flop.
And then there’s the supposedly “open” ePub format. Get real B&N. Nice way to find a loop-hole in making a new DRM format. If I could use your device to download ebooks from Amazon you’d have a deal.
I compared K2 vs. Nook on price and availability for 22 books on my wishlist (mostly economic, finance, investing, politics). AMZN sold 17 while BN sold only 8. Total cost for the 8 ebooks avaulable on both was K2 – $76. and Nook – $121 (60% more ! !) With Kindle for PC coming, favoring K2 for me is a no-brainer unless BN can show me real quick that they can close the availability and price gap fast.
BTW: Kindle for PC
http://gizmodo.com/5387663/amazon-multitouch-kindle-app-with-full-color-for-windows-7
With Kindle for PC, readers can take advantage of the following features:
* Purchase, download, and read hundreds of thousands of books available in the Kindle Store
* Access their entire library of previously purchased Kindle books stored on Amazon’s servers for free
* Choose from over 10 different font sizes and adjust words per line
* Add and automatically synchronize bookmarks and last page read
* View notes and highlights marked on Kindle and Kindle DX
* Zoom in and out of text with a pinch of the fingers (Windows 7 users only)
* Turn pages with a finger swipe (available in a future release for Windows 7 users)
I’ve got to agree with Damaso. I work in manufacturing. The only way for Amazon to release a Kindle 3 this year is if they were already planning for a 2009 release, or were already warehousing the Kindle 3 for a very early 2010 launch.
Here’s your list of things for the 3:
1. Keep it sub $300, ideally close to $270.
2. Get the same Sharing Terms that B&N got. Unless it involves higher ebook prices.
3. Add PDF Support. Perhaps even ePub.
4. Add some good software features i.e. things like Folders and Tagging.
5. Perhaps add a touch-screen or some new advance in eInk (flexible, hard to break screens).
6. Consider adding a memory card or extra on-board memory.
1. Already there
2. Can be added via software to Kindle 2
3. Can be added via software to Kindle 2
4. Can be added via software to Kindle 2
5. Unlikely to happen this year
6. There’s little demand for this outside of the nerd blogs. Books are 3-4MB in size, and Amazon lets you store your (legally purchased) books on Amazon’s servers to be downloaded any time you feel like reading them again or sharing with your family. The demand for expandable memory is either a red herring (feature few will use) or for those using their eReader as a mp3 player (few will do this), or those looking to store a huge library of bootleg books (Most likely use for expandable memory)
Also if a Kindle 3 was going to launch this year, we would likely have found out about it already through FCC leaks.
Shawndoc makes some good points though I would disagree about the SD card slot. If you use audio books or just like having music playing int he background having expandable memory is a nice selling point. While I agree the average Kindle user might not ever face a storage problem I would say 10-20% of Kindle users would like the feature.
I don’t think Amazon loses anything by offering it.
[...] & Noble announces the Nook. Brent Evans of GeekTonic details its features. Abhi predicts a Kindle 3 within the next week or two and argues that B&N have played into the wily hands of Bezos and [...]
Switch11 is right. Kindle 3 will come out in November. I know it isn’t to creditable coming from a random poster on the internet so don’t believe me if you don’t want to. But I do have inside information (from a family member who works for Amazon) that it is scheduled for a release in the first or second week of november as long as production estimates continue on pace. Supposibly, Amazon has been planning on a release all along in November. They bumped up production awhile ago after hearing of the new Sony Daily Reader coming out for the holiday season. Amazon has been ahead of everyone with their eReaders up to now. Don’t think they have fallen behind now. I suspect leaks / rumors will begin to float around in a few days. Anyway, you don’t have to take me at my word, but maybe you should at least reconsider waiting a week or two before buying a Nook or Kindle.
regards,
Jake A.
Jake,
It’s November 23rd….. I guess your “family member ” was WRONG… :- (
to err is human
to forgive divine
and to remind
is very unkind.
just kidding.
the reminders are fun and make life interesting.
It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Amazon rethought their strategy.
Yes, me and Jake were wrong. However, at that time his source might have been right.
i am reading this April 24th 2010 laughing at this very convincing post about how you have inside info and a bunch of B.S. about something u obviously did have any clue about! hahaha! sorry but still no K3
thank you for your kindness. It makes me happy that people are reading posts from as far back as last year.
I’ve been looking at the Kindle for a while now. Still haven’t pulled the trigger. The Kindle 1 had too many problems. Kindle 2 was too expensive. Now that Kindle 2 has dropped down to a reasonable price, I’m afraid Kindle 3 is right around the corner.
In the meantime I’ve downloaded Kindle for my iPhone and it’s great. Just one little thing I don’t like and one other question. I cannot seem to highlight text across a page break. If I’m highlighting a sentence or a paragraph that goes across a page break there’s no way to do it. Is this the same in the real Kindle? The other question, is there any way to get my notes out of a Kindle (cut and paste, download them to my Mac)?
Thanks,
Brian
In the real kindle you can highlight across pages.
Also notes are in a file called MyClippings.txt and you can get them out.
They are also available online at kindle.amazon.com.
Finally, we are now in Amazon’s holiday return period. anything you buy now can be returned until end of Jan 2010.
Kindle 3 arriving anytime before that would not be an issue.
We’re midway through November. Any updates on Kindle 3?
no. it seems i might be wrong.
Wonder what’s going on at Sony: their website reports backorder for their $400 PRS-900BC Reader Daily Edition, that it’s “temporarily unavailable” — I didn’t realize it was even available yet.
http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&productId=8198552921665981151
It’s Dec. 6 and still no Kindle 3. Not going to happen this year. The biggest thing to happen this year (yet kept very low key) was the international Kindle. Being a Canadian, I have been waiting to buy this for 2 years. Amazon, responding to my information request, has told me that the next step is the release of the Kindle DX in the international version (ie. 3g whispernet). I really am looking for the DX unit with a memory card slot but fear that that is not going to happen. The high cost is a set back as well. The other negative on the Kindle (all models) is the deleting of the 1984 and Animal Farm books. That is just BS. Reading the reviews and replies at Amazon has forced me to take a deeper look into e readers. Then I saw the Nook and may have changed my mind. All the fuss made by publishers over the 14 day sharing of books on the Nook is making me rethink this e reader. But this “link”:http://www.engadget.com/search/?q=ereaders&invocationType=wl-gadget
showing different e readers including the flexible colour e readers by Bridgestone is really drawing my attention and most likely my money.
thanks for the update on the international kindle dx
OK, now for the question, is the Kindle 3 going to come out in February 2010? I cannot afford the dx so I’m hopeing that the K3 is near the K2 price. Can I pre-order it now? Please answer if you know.
I don’t know if and when it’s coming out – this is an estimate.
There are no pre-orders.
I have been ready to take the plunge and buy a Kindle for over a month now. But I can’t make myself pull the trigger yet because I have this feeling that the Kindle 3 is going to be announced within a few weeks.
Not to mention the fact that Apple certainly has something up their sleeve.
Anyway, back to Kindle 3. I am really hoping they will bring back the SD card slot, and removable battery. But the Holy Grail for Kindle 3 (for me personally) would be wider format support, specifically EPUB.
Keeping my fingers crossed for some concrete information within the next month or two.
I am in the same boat. I’ve gotten pretty excited about buying a Kindle, but I’m afraid that as soon as I do a new version will be released. Does anyone know what Amazon’s return policy is?
Has anyone heard anymore rumors about a Kindle 3 release date?
No rumors. Kindle 3 release date in Feb 2010, 1 year after Kindle 2 mis a possibility.
Amazon has a 30 day return period so if you buy around 15th/20th of this month you’re safe if they release in Feb.
Used Kindles have a strong market so the damage of a new release coming out is not that high.
jan 23rd. Still hoping, waiting for k3 feb. announcement. Will be my 1st kindle and can’t wait!
I gave up waiting for the Kindle 3. I went ahead and bought a Kindle 2. Now I’m praying everyday for a firmware update to address some issues, like folders and contrast.
Has Amazon every officially said they’d be coming out with another firmware update? Or is that pure speculation?
I’m in the same boat, waiting and waiting, if Feb. goes by and we don’t hear about K3, I am to buy K2. Hope we hear that 3 is out.
Kindle DX global has been launch earlier this year (2010) but the cost is still high. Apple has unveiled it’s 16GB Ipad at a cost ($499) just above the Kindle DX. 32GB and 64GB Ipads are also available. It can do much more than the Kindle can but I don’t believe it to be the Kindle killer it has highly been regarded to be. But still Amazon is going to have to start more aggressive pricing or they could be in for trouble. I would also be surprised to see a Feb. release of a Kindle 3. Expect a newer Kindle touch version before June though. And yes I’m the same guy who told you about the International Kindle DX being released in 2010.
I think if Amazon wants to sell a bunch on Kindle 2 or 3′s, they should work with Costco and flood the market with eReaders. I believe that the Apple iPad solution is not a ebook reader, it is a giant ipod/iphone that is able to read ebooks in color and a bright backlite screen.
great point scott. Amazon need to get a lot of ereaders out there – it’ll give them more of a cushion against competitors, put more pressure on publishers, and in general do good things for ebooks.
At $149 or $199 they could triple the installed base in a year.
At $149 we’d probably have two more in our house within the year. We’d at least have one more. My wife, who thought they were a total waste of money a couple of months ago loves mine that she got me for Christmas. We’d probably pick up one for my 13 year old too.
I am just now reading up on Kindle…I see there is a K2 but after reading posts from others apparently a K3 is coming…. I am not a techy person….but my question is …. I live in Canada….will the Kindle work here with NO extra charges for the wireless part or any of that stuff…..only cost to me is the price of the Kindle and what books I choose to buy? I know that if I take my PC with me I get charged for wireless …. is this the same thing???
Brenda – this is how it works in Canada.
1) Browsing the Kindle Store via wireless is free.
2) Browsing wikipedia via wireless is free.
3) The browser and free internet browsing are disabled.
4) book downloads cost $2 if done via wireless.
5) Books generally cost more than in the US – around $2.
Do wait till end of Feb before getting the Kindle 2 as last year’s kindle version was released in february.
Okay, it is February 13, 2010 and still no Kindle 3!!! Maybe Amazon is running late but I don’t thing so. Next releases are Kindle software for the Apple Mac and Rim Blackberry devices. Is there any chance of them partnering up with Delta Electronics/Bridgestone for their colour E-reader??? Switch11??? I know that Delta is looking to make their e-reader for any company wanting them and Amazon would make a great partner. You are more likely to see a firmware update soon as this would be an easier way to incorporate some of the changes (ie. folders, etc.) people have been asking about rather than bringing out the Kindle 3 at this time. But this is just a guess. Probably the best way to find out about the near future is to contact Kindle Support via email and ask. Amazon acquired Stanza earlier last year and they have some great deals on books but I am not sure that the Kindle supports that. One last thing was in relation to the Apple ipad…..you can buy ebooks from Amazon on it still at the $9.99 rather then the $14.99 Apple wants to charge for the same book through their site but I am wondering if Apple hasn’t got something up their sleave to remedy this? You heard anything switch11?
I am reading this April 28 and find it fascinating…I am anxiously awaiting getting an iPad 3G with the Kindle app which is fantastic ((used on an iPad Wi/Fi before returning and waiting for the 3G)…I have a Kindle 2 and love it for reading outside or in the car as the iPad or pc has a glare a lot of times, but I also like my Kindle for PC. If I did upgrade to a Kindle 3, it would only be so I could give my Kindle to someone without the ability to get one!
A question about Amazon Whispernet being free over cell network – does this mean it uses my cell phone minutes to read book(s)?
No – it’s free. It uses a free wireless connection to download books. Amazon covers the cost – perhaps it’s included in the book price.
wow i’m soooooo glad I know that the kindle is coming out this late August or early September! I would have already gotten the K2 if I heard of this a year before.