Digitimes is a news site that usually gets their rumors right – or to be more precise has good sources in the tech industry in Asia and they break a lot of news.
Here are three HUGE pieces of breaking news from their sources -
- Electrophoretic display maker PVI (which makes Kindle eInk screens, and also Nook and Sony Reader eInk screens) is expected to ship 2.5-3 million eInk screens in 2009.
- PVI shipped 800,000 to 900,000 eInk screens in 2008. Digitimes writes -
Electrophoretic display (EPD) maker Prime View International (PVI) is expected to ship 2.5-3 million EPDs in 2009, accounting for about 90% of the global e-book reader market, according to market sources.
PVI’s EPD shipments in 2008 were only about 800,000-900,000 units, the sources added. Besides shipments for Amazon’s Kindle e-book reader, PVI is also shipping to Barnes & Noble for the publisher’s latest e-book reader, the nook, the sources said.
- At the same time (again via Digitimes) AU Optronics aim to ship 1-2 million ebook displays in 2010 and capture 20-30% of the market -
LCD panel maker AU Optronics (AUO) aims to ship 1-2 million e-book reader panels in 2010, taking as much as almost one-third of the global market for the segment, according to company president and CEO LJ Chen.
AUO estimates that global e-book reader shipments will total 6-7 million units in 2010.
These companies are literally the best possible source for eReader sales – so far, all eReaders use eInk.
What Do These Figures Mean for Kindle sales and eReader Sales?
Let’s look at the three figures -
- 800,000 to 900,000 eReaders sold in 2008 built on eInk Screens from PVI.
- 2.5 to 3 million eReaders sold in 2009 built from PVI’s eInk screens.
- Expectations from screen manufacturers (the people with the best knowledge) that total (PVI and AUO) eReader screens shipped will be 6-7 million in 2010.
If PVI is right and they account for 90% of the global eReader market, that means -
- We will have somewhere between 3.67 million and 4.33 million eReaders sold by end 2009.
- We will add-on an extra 6 to 7 million eReaders by end 2010.
That’s more than what most analysts are estimating (with the notable exception of Mr. Imran Khan’s ’10 million in the next year’ estimate).
2 million Kindles sold by end 2009 based on DigiTimes estimates
If we assume the Kindle has 60% market share -
- Kindle Sales of between 2.2 million Kindles and 2.6 million Kindles by end 2009 (2008 and 2009).
If we take my ‘Kindle has 75% market share’ estimate, we get -
- Kindle Sales of between 2.75 million and 3.25 million by end 2009 (2008 and 2009).
What Could it mean for Future Kindle Sales?
The 2010 sales might change if Nook and the Apple Slate steal market share. So let’s assume Kindle gets only 50% of eInk eReader sales.
- Kindle Sales of 3 million to 3.5 million in 2010.
If Digitimes is right about PVI’s eInk display sales numbers, then everyone who thinks Amazon has sold less than a million Kindles is wrong.
We’re talking 2.2 million Kindles sold by end 2009 in the worst case, and over 2.75 million Kindles sold by end 2009 in the best case.
Filed under: news Tagged: | kindle sales, kindle sales estimates
