Joe Wilcox has a post claiming that Android is going to beat the iPhone.
How Strange – It’s usually the as yet unannounced Apple product that is supposed to kill an existing giant.
Its also a strange situation for me - the iPhone is my first and only Apple Product.
However, the iPhone just floored me. It’s 4 weeks and there’s no denying the fact that Apple have created a thing of beauty. The App Store perhaps makes it a thing of infinite beauty.
Mr. Wilcox compares Apple Vs PC in the 1980s and 1990s with Android Vs iPhone. He also hammers on how important the eco-system is and forwards other arguments.
He labels Robert Scoble and John Gruber as Apple fanboys, so it’s time to hear from an obvious non Apple fanboy.
Weak Arguments and a Ridiculous Prophecy
Well, let’s point out a few obvious problems with his arguments -
- His argument assumes that Apple’s insane growth rate will be exceeded by Android which up till now has done very little.
- Apps are crucial – Apple destroys Android in Apps. Not 5% better. Not much better. Exponentially Better.
- The iPhone itself is exceptional. There’s a 1% chance the Droid is as good, and that’s being generous.
- The iPhone’s design and much-maligned review process ensure Apps are good. Look at the functionality to email results from an App – that’s excellent email integration.
- This analysis disregards the fact that we also have RIMM, Nokia/Symbian, and Windows Mobile. How can you leave out RIMM/Blackberry?
Worst of all, much of his argument is based on this rather impractical analysis by Gartner -
- Android smartphone OS share would grow from 1.6 percent in first quarter 2009 to 18 percent in fourth quarter 2012.
- By comparison, iPhone OS: 13.6 percent, up from 10.8 percent.
You mean to tell me that in 3 years Apple will only grow its market share 25.9%, while Android will grow its market share 1025% ?
Gartner have outdone themselves.
The iPhone 3GS is the most wished for gift this Holiday Season. Apple is probably going to increase its share to more than 13.6% in just the next 6-12 months.
Better Comparions than Mac Vs PC
Why is it that people feel the need to go back 20-30 years.
Why not consider -
- Facebook Vs OpenSocial. Facebook won, perhaps due to its apps.
- Windows Vs Linux on Netbooks. Linux started off as the main OS (50%+ market share) and it was open. It now has less than 10% market share.
- Decades of Linux Vs Windows. If Mac lost to PCs because DOS was more open than Mac, then surely Linux should have utterly destroyed Microsoft by now.
The minute a company gets very successful certain people in the tech world get antsy and want to tear it down.
It’s always David Vs Goliath and David gets all the love until he wins and turns into Goliath.
Epilogue
The irony of having to defend Apple. It’s such an irrational argument that there was no other choice.
The sheer beauty (and inapppropriateness) of using Mac Vs DOS in the 1980s to prophesize that Android will beat the iPhone overwhelms me.
Filed under: apple ibook reader Tagged: | good analysis, lack thereof
Apple with iPhone has already lost his chance outside US. In other parts of the world we are waiting for the Android, not for the iPhone.
[...] Apple owners are quick to defend Apple products (sometimes irrationally). Even I’m guilty of this – here’s a post defending the iPhone against Android. [...]