Kindle Review – Kindle 2 Review, Books

AKA How Google Editions or Amazon Encore or Apple or An Upstart could take over Publishing.

Wired’s Epicenter Blog covers the U.S. Copyright Act of 1976 which applies to literary works, music and more -

 If an artist or author sold a copyright before 1978 (Section 304), they or their heirs can take it back 56 years later.

If the artist or author sold the copyright during or after 1978 (Section 203), they can terminate that grant after 35 years.

For books published in 1953 and earlier contracts can already be terminated.

Also worth noting is that once you hit your 35/56 years there’s a 5 year window in which you can end contracts and get back rights.

What exactly could this 35/56 year reset mean?

This example from the Wired article explains quite well what it could mean -

 The Eagles plan to file grant termination notices by the end of the year, according to Law.com. “It’s going to happen,” said Eveline. “Just think of what the Eagles are doing when they get back their whole catalog. They don’t need a record company now…. You’ll be able to go to Eaglesband.com (updated) and get all their songs. They’re going to do it; it’s coming up.”

It means every single year (starting now and accelerating in 2013) authors can re-negotiate their contracts with Publishers.

Authors get to re-negotiate their rights in the middle of this huge shift from physical to electronic.

• Amazon are offering 35% to independent authors and will probably offer more to established authors.
• Big authors could do what the Eagles are planning and just sell their ebooks and books themselves.

There are already struggles between authors and publishers over ebook rights. We’re going to see these struggles intensify and boil over and create the biggest opportunity in Publishing (for publishing companies).

Forget 2012 - 2013 is the year of the Apocalypse

2013 is particularly important for a few reasons -

1. eReaders will probably be selling 10-40 million units a year and have a total installed base of 20-50 million units.
2. eBooks might be 10-40% of books.
3. Rights for all works from 1956 through 1961 could be renegotiated.
4. All works from 1978 will be up for re-negotiation.
5. Publishers will be weaker than they are now.
6. Amazon and Google and other ePublishers will be stronger than now.

We have just a few million eReaders and eBooks accounting for 5% of sales and already ebook royalties are 25% in the UK.  

How will Authors decide? 

Here are some of the things authors will know -

1. They should get a larger share of ebook rights. 
2. They have lots of options. 
3. They could go it alone and see how much they make. 
4. There are new opportunities.  
5. They still need marketing and other support. 

Here are some of the things authors won’t know -

1. What share is fair? 
2. How many sales will they get with the new Publisher?
3. What marketing budgets will be allocated?
4. Who handles all the details?
5. How marketable are they?

 Which means authors will have to look closely at what they would get from a publishing company -

1. Apple and Amazon and Google can provide huge channels.
2. Amazon can provide Publishing on Demand and help at almost every step of the process.
3. Old school Publishers can provide publishing expertise.
4. New publishing start-ups could give a bigger share.  
5. Marketing oriented New Publishing Start-Ups could provide marketing expertise and large marketing budgets.

There are also other things like spreading the word, fame, freedom, and saving time.

What companies are best placed?

Take a wild guess.

There are of course a lot of changes that are going to happen over the next 4-5 years.

Here are the things authors would need from the new star Publisher -

1. A lot of sales which pretty much necessitates owning a channel.  
2. A large cut i.e. 30% to 50%.  
3. Good Support i.e. human contact and support.
4. Great marketing and promotions.  
5. Handling of physical books and electronic books.

And a whole lot more.

Existing Publishers would have to restructure their operations to be more efficient and build up their own channel.

If they don’t have their own channel they can’t match prices and royalties and they can’t win.

Why has no one ever brought this up before?

 There have been so many people pondering the future of books and publishing.

How is it that no one except Wired has realized this before?

Starting in 2013 we are going to have a book rights land grab like never before – year by year more and more book rights will be up for grabs and more and more publishing opportunities will come up.

Between 2013 and 2023 we could see a company take over 30-40% of the $25 billion US Books Industry. With rights that last 35 years.

Think about it -

1. No need to identify gems.
2. Little risk as its proven winners.
3. Next to no costs as production of books and book digitization can both be outsourced.
4. Lots of channels competing for content i.e. Google Editions, Apple, Amazon Kindle, and so forth.

The only question is – What price will books be selling for in 2013?