Kindle Review – Kindle Fire Review, Kindle 4 Review

Missed the Kindle’s 2 year anniversary a few days ago (November 21st, 2009 – although it was announced on the 19th). Here are a few thoughts on the Kindle being 2 years old -

1. Kindle might still be keeping up with iPod sales in its first few years

This is based on estimates – feel free to not believe it.

The Nook and Sony Reader Daily Edition selling out do indicate there might be some truth to high kindle sales estimates. Kindle sales are probably high enough to match iPod’s sales in its first few years.

For example, these are iPod Sales in its first few years (courtesy Wikipedia) -

Year	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
2002	125,000	57,000	54,000	140,000
2003	219,000	78,000	304,000 (iPod V3)	336,000
2004	733,000	807,000	860,000	2,016,000
2005	4,580,000	5,311,000	6,155,000	6,451,000

Kindle sales estimates from analysts definitely match up with iPod sales in its first 6 quarters. (Please see my Kindle vs iPod Sales post for Kindle sales estimates from analysts).

The big question is -

Will Kindle be able to match the jump that the iPod got from iPod Generation 3?

The answer to that is in three parts -

1. Kindle is probably already beating the 336,000 sales in a quarter that iPod had in its 8th quarter.    
2. A really exceptional Kindle 3 will be needed to match the excellent 3rd year of the iPod i.e. sales jumping to 2 million in the last quarter.
3. The astounding 4th year might be out of reach – Nook and Sony Reader provide two strong rivals. Something the iPod never had. That means the 2005 jump the  iPod had might get shared between 3 eReaders.

2. 2011, and not 2010, might be the Year of the eReader

That iPod sales table points out that the 4th year of the iPod is when 1-1.5 million iPods were selling each month. The same might happen for eReaders -

1. Color might not be around until the end of 2010.  
2. Prices are going down – However, $100 to $150 eReaders are unlikely to happen until 2010 Holiday season.
3. People are assuming that perception will suddenly change overnight. It’s taken 2 years for people to accept that eReaders aren’t going away – it might be a year or two more before they embrace eReaders.

2010 might seem like it’s the Year of the eReader – However, 2011 is going to be when a million plus eReaders are sold every month.

3. Nook is the first real rival the Kindle has had

 For 2 years Kindle had only Sony to worry about and Sony kept making blunders (touch screen layer that caused poor readability, no wireless downloads).

Nook’s feature list is basically a Kindle Top 10 complaints list. Consider just a few of the changes Amazon has made -

1. Kindle for PC and the forthcoming Kindle for Mac.  
2. A price cut to $259. 
3. PDF Support. 
4. Kindle Folders announced.

These increase the value proposition of the Kindle immensely.

B&N gave Amazon a gift by giving them some real competition – forcing them to make the Kindle better.

4. Google has changed the playing field

By giving Sony and B&N its million free books Google has helped them hide their twin disadvantages -

1. Limited range of new books when compared to the Kindle Store. 
2. Higher prices than the Kindle Store.

Both Sony and B&N now claim ‘a million plus books’ and have other white lies to hide their lack of ebook range.

If and when the Google Book Settlement gets approved, Google will be able to add orphan works to the mix and do a lot of other things. Things will get much tougher for Amazon.

5. Kindle is undeniably a success

When you have -

1. Google entering into selling ebooks and tying up with your competitors. 
2. 50 different companies launching eReaders.  
3. B&N taking losses to rush the Nook to market.  
4. Sony running TV Ads.

It’s a safe bet the market has been validated.

At this point people can only argue about the scale of success and talk about some potential kindle killer.

6. The Press tried to kill the Kindle, and it backfired

A ridiculously inept plot in two acts -

Act 1

1. 1984 and other negative publicity. 
2. Protests by anti-DRM people. 

It didn’t really work as the publicity only helped create awareness.

Act 2

1. Talking up the Nook. 
2. Mis-stating Facts.

The Press created a huge buzz and then the Nook sold out. Everyone buys a Kindle instead.

• When Nook reviews come out and people realize it’s not a ‘color ereader’ and ‘sharing means lend once’ then we’ll have more balanced opinions.
• While the Nook and Kindle are very close, there’s little doubt that the Press had anointed Nook the King of eReaders – without ever using it.

No one has read a single book on the Nook and there’s a lawsuit in the works - so let’s wait before we make a call.

7. Kindle DX gets massacred by the National Federation of the Blind

Have no idea why the NFB would want to kill a device that lets blind people get text to speech for a cheap $259.

However, they went after the Kindle DX university trials with a big stick of political correctness and beat the trials to death.

1. Interestingly, lots of schools and libraries and universities are doing Kindle and Kindle DX trials of their own. 
2. It’s a lesson to eReader companies - when it comes to NFB, no good deed goes unpunished.  
3. NFB can now champion the $1,499 Intel eReader for the blind – which no blind student can afford.

Its a huge blessing for Amazon – the Kindle DX was going to get massacred for not having good note-taking abilities and now the NFB hide that flaw.

8. Kindle  3 is crucial, Kindle DX 2 equally so  

The Kindle 3 is crucial for a few reasons -

1. To get back to being the clear #1 choice. 
2. To match a potential Apple Slate – or at least minimize defectors.  
3. To match and perhaps even exceed Nook 2 (end 2010) and Sony 660 (mid 2010).
4. To match the Mirasol and Pixel Qi powered color eReaders that come out in mid to end 2010.

 The Kindle DX 2 is just as crucial -

1. To prove that eReaders have a place in schools and colleges.  
2. To establish a higher end line to take on the Apple Slate.
3. 100% of students at Schools and Colleges read.
4. Parents will easily pay well for anything related to education.
5. You create readers and Kindle owners for life.

Those are all the Kindle anniversary thoughts tha came to mind – the Kindle gets the Holiday season to itself and ought to surpass the 9th quarter sales the iPod had.

Filed under: kindle Tagged: | kindle anniversary