Kindle Review – Kindle Fire Review, Kindle 4 Review

As we enter the golden age of eReaders we may very well see an unthinkable transition - In the next 5 to 10 years eBooks might end up selling more units than physical books.

The Kindle has already led to a situation where Amazon sells 48 eBooks for every 100 physical books (when both are available).  

The challenges facing eReaders seem trivial compared to the horrors that eBooks face.

10 Biggest Challenges eBooks Face

eBooks are a giant mess. There’s a wide gulf between how readers, Publishers, eReader companies, and eBook sellers see eBooks.

Here are the biggest challenges –  

1. Poor range of books – Thanks to Publishers we just don’t have that many Books available in eBook form.
2. Pricing – Until the Kindle Store established the $9.99 price point eBook prices were unrealistic and there are still attempts to fight $9.99.
3. Perception that eBooks cost nothing to produce – On the other side of the spectrum is wishful thinking from readers that eBooks could be sold at $1 or $2.  
4. Piracy and DRM – Perhaps the most attention grabbing roadblock to the growth of eBooks. We might need DRM to prevent indiscriminate piracy and indiscriminate pirates might use DRM as justification.
5. Platform wars + Format Wars – Too many platforms and too many formats and lack of interoperability.
6. People being  inexperienced with eBooks – People just don’t know what to expect.
7. Lack of the richness of Physical books - eBooks don’t involve the senses in quite the same way. Plus they lack a lot of the uniqueness and character of physical books.
8. Perceived Poor Quality of eBooks – Some eBooks just aren’t well-crafted and it gives eBooks in general a bad name.
9. eInk not evolving fast enough i.e. page turns aren’t quick enough, no color, and so forth.
10. Competition and Race To Zero – Everyone wants to give away their book to build a fan base. Too bad the fan base starts off addicted to cheap and free.

A lot of the challenges eReaders faced revolved around perception and positioning and things that can be addressed in a straightforward manner. 

If all you have to do is get an eReader into a reader’s hands and let them see how good the screen is and that it’s readable in sunlight then you’re doing pretty well. 

With eBooks it’s the opposite – the challenges are very, very real problems and some of them (DRM) might not have any solution.

A few more challenges eBooks face

1. Lack of adequate books in non-English languages
2. Discovery – How do people find books?
3. Lack of enough book sites.

the Unsolvable eBook Challenges

Let’s start off with the two items that are probably sans solution -

Piracy and DRM

It’s pretty cyclical -

1. Some readers (perhaps 5%, perhaps 50%) read books they find for free online.
2. That forces Publishers and Retailers to use Digital Rights Management.
3. That inconveniences certain other readers (in addition to the pirates) or upsets them in other ways.
4. The DRM and the inconvenience makes some of the inconvenienced users feel they ought to steal just to teach the DRM people a lesson.
5. This Piracy motivates Publishers and Retailers to continue to have DRM or make it fancier.

There isn’t a solution because there are ridiculous arguments on both sides i.e.

1. Some Readers think it’s justified to steal because DRM exists – thereby rendering DRM necessary.  
2. Publishers etc. feel it’s justified to inconvenience honest people because some people are dishonest.

Both parties have very strong incentives to be self-biased which reduces the probability of a solution even more.

The only chance for resolution is if a company desperate to compete does what Amazon did with MP3s.

Platform Wars + Format Wars

The format war is turning into a battle between the Kindle format and ePub.

Pro ePub people are naive enough to believe that Sony etc. are doing it out of the goodness of their hearts.

The Platform battle is also Kindle Vs the World. Apple might enter and make it a 3 horse race.

That would be very satisfying to see – the ‘open’ pure people (Sony, etc.) fight both Apple and Amazon.

There isn’t any solution to the platform and format problem because whatever company wins will decide this.

Solutions to challenges eBooks Face

That leaves us with 8 challenges we can explore solutions for -

Poor Range of Books

This isn’t going to change easily. We need -

1. Publishing upstarts.
2. Indie Authors.
3. Authors to take their eBook rights into their own hands.
4. Continued work by Amazon.
5. Google to start focusing more on books people actually want to read.

Publishers will keep delaying – their main motivation is to kill eReaders and eBooks.

Pricing

With their ridiculous eBook prices Publishers are again trying desperately to kill eBooks. They would rather serve their inertia and nostalgia than their customers.

On this particular front they’re out of luck because -

1. Customers have embraced $9.99 and made it a rallying point.
2. 2 years of training of $9.99 is never going away.
3. We’re beginning to see a lot of competition and prices will keep going down.

Pricing will solve itself very quickly.  

Delaying new eBook releases is a sort of time-pricing and its Publishers’ last stand. By mid to end 2010 that experiment will have failed.

Perception that eBooks cost nothing to produce

People who think eBooks should be $1 or $2 are perhaps the best example of irrational rationalization. They are also the reason the great ‘people will pay full price for DRM-free books’ argument might not stand up to reality.

There are a few things to do here -

1. Demarcate quality books clearly and do not sell them at ridiculously cheap prices.
2. Use free books for marketing very judiciously.
3. Add a lot of value i.e. audio-book bundling, bundling with physical books, special features, features like read to me.
4. Make the costs involved in book publishing and the model transparent.
5. Highlight the time and effort sunk in to books by Authors, Editors and Publishers.
6. Put a human face on the price i.e. $2 book = McDonald’s Dollar Menu and $10 book = a decent living.

Basically, people will believe whatever suits them – so it’s really crucial to give them lots of reminders that people in publishing need to eat.

Competition and Race to Zero

The above is endangered by the simple market reality i.e. a race to zero is inevitable.  

• There are lots of desperate authors who are starting off.
• The very top authors will make ridiculous amounts of money.
• That combines to create a nothing to lose, tons to gain mentality.
• That means lots of price cutting and free books and low prices and aiming for volume.
• The first few authors who take huge risks will be rewarded richly and then everyone will take huge risks – polluting pricing forever.

Competition is brutal – especially when it’s hungry and has nothing to lose and it can see the top few authors making a killing.

Is this solvable – yes. A grand agreement and an authors guild not set up by Publishers would work.

However, there will always be individual authors breaking off and pushing ridiculous ideas for personal gain.

Lack of the Richness of Physical Books

Another almost unsolvable problem. eBooks have a much tougher future than eReaders.

How do you make eBooks a little closer to real books -

1. Better Covers and better editing and formatting.
2. Let authors pick fonts and perhaps even other options.
3. Involve more senses – get in color, get in better touch and writing capabilities.
4. Explore digital books and books that ask you to make choices.

This can only be solved partially and the best path is something discussed in the eReader challenges post i.e. paint eBooks as a complement to Physical Books.

Perceived Poor Quality of eBooks

Another really big challenge. The democratization of publishing means a terrifying lack of quality control.

There are lots of things to do here -

1. Have strict formatting and editing standards for eBooks.
2. Have a very strict review system that weeds out books written over the weekend. 
3. Develop algorithms – perhaps ones that use spell checkers and grammar tools to weed out unpolished ebooks.

It would make sense to involve readers and use the intelligence of the crowds.

eInk is not evolving fast enough

This is a huge challenge because the lack of color and slow page turns and slow note-taking make eBooks harder to use than physical books.

The state of eInk is an easy target for criticism with no solution at the moment.

2010 might see new advances or entirely new technologies and while there isn’t a solution yet we should have one by mid to end 2010.

Closing Thoughts on Challenges eBooks face

eBooks are going to have a horrendous 2 years.

• Look at what Publishers are pushing for and what they are fighting and you have to feel that they might take the brunt of the damage.
• Chances are high that the value perception of eBooks on the Internet crashes to zero and stays there.
• The platform and format wars have a silver lining – Platforms of Good Intent will rise and become the main revenue streams for eBooks.
• There will be lots of people using things Publishers do to justify stealing eBooks.

There is a chance that there is an inflection point – a point at which Publishers decide to go with eBooks or totally lose control.

That’s the only hope – if that happens within a year or so there’s the opportunity to create channels of good intent and set a $10 eBook price and keep eBooks alive.

1. If that doesn’t happen, Publishers will keep fighting eBooks and eReader companies and will stay in control of publishing for the next few years.
2. Readers will use that as justification to steal eBooks to their heart’s content. Not only will they deny this is wrong they’ll paint it as some sort of fight for goodness.

Together they’ll end up destroying the revenue stream from eBooks – and at some level they won’t really mind.

The eReader, the platform, the author and the forward thinking Publisher – It’s up to those 4 parties to come together and figure out a way to save eBooks.

Filed under: books Tagged: | ebook piracy, future of books