Kindle Review – Kindle Fire Review, Kindle 4 Review

The rise of the Kindle and the interest in the Nook have led to a lot of consternation amongst Publishers.

For a long time eBook sales have been less than 5% of total sales and now Publishers are preparing for a contingency.

The worst case scenario that Publishers envision and the topic of our post -

Could ebooks grow to be 15-20% of the market?

Will things really get that bad?

Kindle owners and book-lovers might find this question amusing – Publishers don’t.

Publishers really do think the equilibrium will be 20% eBooks

Their plans involve an equilibrium situation where eBooks constitute 15 to 20% of the market and physical books comprise the remaining 80 to 85%.

Of course, they are right on two counts -

1. The market will consolidate into a 80-20 split.
2. They certainly ought to be worried.

Where they are wrong is -

1. 80% of the books market will be eBooks, not physical books. 
2. Their concerns should be about survival and not just continuing the status quo.

The first step is to admit that both eBooks and physical books have advantages

Physical books have some big advantages -

1. They’re solid and you can hold them.
2. All your memories.
3. You can share them.
4. You can sell them.

eBooks have advantages of their own -

1. You can carry as many as you like. 
2. You can search them and do instant dictionary and Internet look-ups.
3. They are usually cheaper. 
4. They save your place.
5. They are convenient in a lot of ways.

We can easily contemplate a world where both co-exist, peacefully. 

Which means it comes down to a simple question -

Given that eBooks and physical books will co-exist, which will capture the larger share?

My answer, after much consideration, is – eBooks.

Could eBooks possibly become more popular than physical books?

Lovers of the physical book will claim that you could never convince them to ditch physical books. That the smell of books and how they feel and their memories are priceless.

They’re completely, absolutely right.

However, you need just a few physical books to capture all those feelings.

Consider the advantages that eBooks have in terms of convenience -

1. You can get them in 60 seconds, from the comfort of your house or even your favorite chair. 
2. You can get them anytime. 
3. You can carry them everywhere and cart them from house to house easily.
4. They take no storage space and cost little.
5. A lot of them are free - consider all the public domain titles.

The key factor worth considering is that if you have some physical books already then the choice between physical and eBook comes down to price and convenience. 

The core of the Book is the words

• Publishers are too caught up in believing that what they contribute is more important than the author’s words.
• Lovers of the physical book are too caught up in caressing the touch and feel, although it was the words inside that captured their imaginations.

The first few times booklovers canter through an eBook they are hooked – gone is the conviction that eBooks are terrible.

They realize that a Book consists of much more than just the physical shell that carries it.

At that point they also consider some scary thoughts -

1. Could the extra $14 for a hardcover be a crafty ruse? After all, the printing and material cost just $3 more. 
2. Why pay $5 for a public domain title when the complete litany of public domain titles is free online?

Could the divide between physical books and eBooks simply be our mental connection between a love of reading and the physical form of the book?

Will eBooks grow to be 15-20% of the market?

Yes. Within 2 to 3 years.

By end 2011, latest by end 2012, eBooks will capture and consolidate 20% of market share. They will continue their march and keep converting skeptics and get to 75% to 80% market share.

It could take 5-10 years. However, eBooks will carve out a huge piece of the market for themselves. 

There are two creative, misleading delusions that stand in the way i.e.

1. Publishers are convinced physical books are magic and they are completely sure that they themselves are essential to the crafting of books. 
2. Readers are consumed by their love of the physical form of books. Over the years their memories have created a unique connection between reading and the physical form of the book.

The first few complete experiences with the Kindle (or any decent eReader) will cure the latter delusion, and market forces will cure the former.

Publishers will crash, eBooks will capture 20% market share in 2.5 years, and we’ll see a future where Books carve out an identity separate from the vehicle that carries them.

Filed under: books Tagged: | ebook sales trends, future of books