Kindle Review – Kindle Fire Review, Kindle 4 Review

This is the first of two posts about big, current issues in Publishing and eReaders and eBooks that are being debated about without taking into account the bigger picture.

The first is the ‘what type of devices will win out argument’.

1. Some people think multi-purpose devices will win out because people only want to carry one device.  
2. Some people think eReaders will win out because they are optimized for reading.  
3. PixelQi have endlessly complicated the issue by creating screens that turn devices into both eReaders and multi-purpose devices.

This argument is somewhat meaningful in the short term i.e. until end of 2010, perhaps first few months of 2011.

However, in the longer term, it’s a pointless argument.

Why?

Because there are two critical assumptions that are being made and they are both false -

1. The first assumption is that eReaders are about replacing books – as opposed to them being about reading in general and about replacing paper.  
2. The second assumption is that this is going to be a 20-30 million units a year market that one company can and will dominate.

Let’s start with the latter.

Dedicated eReaders and Multi-Purpose Devices can both prosper

Have written previously about how eReaders will eventually be a 300 million units a year market.

Consider the places where paper is used for reading and writing -

1. Schools. 
2. Colleges.
3. Work.
4. Books.
5. Newspapers.
6. Magazines.
7. A lot more areas.

Replacing that will result in a market size of hundreds of millions of reading devices a year.

There’s no one device that can capture that. What we’ll have is a grand magnification of the current status quo i.e.

1. 100 million people who are reading on multi-purpose devices and think there’s no need for a dedicated eReader. 
2. 100 million people reading on dedicated eReaders that are mid-end or high-end.
3. 100 million people who are reading on very cheap eReaders.

Think about eReaders as replacing paper and the market size grows immensely – neither a single company nor a single design nor a single philosophy can capture a market that big.

eReaders target reading, not books

The growth of eReaders has given everyone the opportunity to express their personal fears and viewpoints.

1. Booklovers hate eReaders because they’re scared books will die.
2. People who don’t read much hate eReaders because a dedicated device for reading sounds terrible and terribly inefficient.
3. People without imagination can’t imagine how black and white screens with nothing but words could be entertaining.

In a sense choosing the ‘electronic book reader’ title does a lot more damage than good. It gets some booklovers excited – but at the same time it confuses people into thinking eReaders are about nothing except books.

Consider what’s used for reading books – Nothing except physical books.  

Now, consider what’s used for reading – paper, books, newspapers, computer screens, phone screens, televisions, blackboards, billboards, posters, and so much more.

eReaders and ePaper have the opportunity to get a share of each of those markets.

• Every surface we read on could be made better for reading.
• The processes around reading i.e. sharing, back-ups, carrying – can all be improved.
• Features complementary to reading can be added on.

It makes zero sense to narrow it down to just books. Plus it’s wrong to subscribe to the notion that eReaders aim to replace and eradicate books.

Underestimating eReaders

Why does everyone keep writing that eReaders are going to die out?

It started off with analyst estimates that the Kindle would sell 40,000 units a year – at best. It’s continued.

If you ask any of the anti-eReader people how many times a day they read off of paper or off of a screen - their answer for each will be in the dozens.

Yet, they don’t see the possibilities for eReaders.

Let’s look at some pro-eReader factors people are disregarding.

Personalization and Something that matches our tastes

Take any huge market - you never get one standard product that everyone falls in love with.

If you’re willing to see that eReaders could replace paper and become a 300 million plus units a year market, you have to consider -

1. People would rather have something that matches their taste than something general.
2. People would want something suited to how they read and what they read. 
3. People have different budgets.
4. People have different levels of dedication to reading and to things that can be read.
5. People want their favorite color and their favorite material and something that they feel for.

There is no single device that could be all things to all people.

Even a device that is dedicated to reading couldn’t capture the entire market. Yet, people presume that a device that is not even focused on reading can dominate.

Innovation and Disruption

People are looking at eReaders as the current technology and the current state.

1. Yet, eReaders are going to morph – PixelQi brings triple mode screens, Qualcomm brings ePaper based off of butterfly wings, and other companies bring other innovations.
2. The eReader service will morph too – transferring documents, scanning documents, speech to text, and more. 
3. The biggest wild card is that Reading habits can change – a generation brought up on eReaders will have zero prejudices against them.

The fifth generation of eReaders are going to be very different. By the 10th generation we might not recognize them any more.

It’s hasty to say – Because the first and second generation of eReaders aren’t perfect they are bound to die.

eReaders are selling like hot cakes

The Nook, the Reader Daily Edition, and the Kindle DX are all sold out.

The Kindle has had two best months in a row.

eReaders are on every Top Gifts and Top Gadgets list.

How can you hold these two thoughts in one head at the same time -

1. eReaders are going to die out. 
2. eReaders are selling like crazy and becoming more and more popular.

The Huge Opportunity for Disruption of Publishing

 eReaders give a lot of companies the opportunity to take a big cut out of Publishing.

1. That’s why Google is getting in.
2. That’s why Apple might jump in.
3. That’s why Publishers are hurting their own customers.

Even if eReaders were the most terrible, ineffective technology (and they’re not) – even then, companies would see them as an opportunity to take over Publishing and push them hard.

Closing Thought - Replacing Paper is the best direction to take eReaders

The single biggest reason eReaders are underestimated is that it takes a lot of effort to imagine a world where paper is replaced by eReaders.

Throw in something small – like replacing 10% of books and it’s easy to process.

How can you imagine replacing paper?

Think through all the places you see paper – notebooks, displays, books, papers, work documents, court briefs, driving tickets, receipts, menus, cookbooks, brochures, user guides - you have to take into account every single use of paper.

eReaders could take over most of these uses.  

1. The blind companies will buy into the multi-purpose device argument and never think beyond 10-20 million eReaders a year.
2. The visionary companies will go after paper and every single use of paper.

Books were the best place to start because book lovers are passionate enough to fund the research and risk involved in replacing paper. Soon we will be at a point where eReaders have the technology and price to take on paper, and then people will laugh at the short-sighted discussions and arguments they used to have.

Filed under: eBook Reader Devices Tagged: | future of ereader, reading