Kindle Review – Kindle Fire Review, Kindle 4 Review

There are two very interesting figures bouncing around in my head at the moment – the 150 of Dunbar’s Number and the 1,000 from the 1,000 True Fans post by Kevin Kelly.

Before we jump into the myriad of reasons these numbers are crucially relevant to the Kindle and eBooks and eReaders, let’s understand them better.

Dunbar’s Number

Dunbar’s Number is basically saying -

1. The number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships is limited to something like 150 (more on this below).
2. This number is dictated by the volume of the neocortex region of the brain.
3. This 150 limitation in turn leads to a limit on the maximum group size where the group is still cohesive and well-knit i.e. every member has a relationship with every other member and knows how that member relates to the other members.

Here are a few related points – things that people often miss.

1. It’s not that you can’t have larger groups – You just need more restricted rules, laws and norms.
2. Why? Because beyond Dunbar’s number we start to lose count and at that point all the reciprocation and give and take and connections start falling apart.
3. 150 is just an estimate. We also have a Bernard-Killworth study that found a mean of 290 and median of 231.
4. The important thing is – There is a limit and with 95% confidence we can say it’s somewhere between 100 and 230.

Please do read the Wikipedia article which is very balanced.

The key concept behind Dunbar’s Number

The key concept is that there is a cognitive limit to how big a group can get and still remain stable and well-behaved and well-connected. Beyond Dunbar’s number the ties grow weak and the magical self-governing qualities of the group begin to disappear.  

Seth Godin thinks Dunbar’s Number is the law and he has a point.

Once you go beyond Dunbar’s number (regardless of whether you feel it’s 100 or 150 or 231) you just don’t have the same bond -

1. You can’t really be fully engaged with more people than your Dunbar’s Number.
2. Groups that are larger than Dunbar’s Number just can’t be as strong.
3. Cross Dunbar’s number and you need stricter rules - you have to push and regulate and ensure things that just happen naturally in smaller groups. 
4. You can’t keep count of who’s doing good, who’s doing bad, and how to treat people.

Now let’s consider the concept of 1,000 True Fans.

Kevin Kelly’s Concept of needing just 1,000 True Fans

This is how Kevin Kelly defines 1,000 True Fans and its relevance -

A creator, such as an artist, musician, photographer, craftsperson, performer, animator, designer, videomaker, or author – in other words, anyone producing works of art – needs to acquire only 1,000 True Fans to make a living.

A True Fan is defined as someone who will purchase anything and everything you produce.

In this case the concept of a true fan is more important than the number itself. Take the artists of old - all they needed was for a King or Prince to become a true fan and they were set for life.

True Fans means Strong Bonds

Kevin Kelly talks about how the whole idea of True Fans necessitates very strong bonds -

 The key challenge is that you have to maintain direct contact with your 1,000 True Fans.

From the previous sections on Dunbar’s Number we know that beyond the first 100-200 True Fans we don’t really have as strong a bond. It’s more like 200 True Fans and the next 800 semi-True Fans.

Melding together the two concepts seems difficult at first – but it makes perfect sense. 

Kevin Kelly does it without realizing it when he says that True Fans are your connectors to other fans i.e.

This small circle of diehard fans, which can provide you with a living, is surrounded by concentric circles of Lesser Fans

The one thing Kevin Kelly doesn’t fully spell out is the best way to grow -

1. If we merely try to increase the number of True Fans we keep running into Dunbar’s Number.
2. The much better direction to pursue is turning True Fans into Super Fans.

How do you create Super Fans?  

Create win-win situations. Win-win means letting them win when you do, and not just in terms of satisfaction.

It also helps to pick people who are on the exact same page as you.

Finally, How this applies to eReaders

The twin concepts of 1,000 true fans and Dunbar’s number show up everywhere.

DRM in terms of Dunbar’s Number

Yes, we do need more convenient DRM. However, there is one very strong reason DRM might be necessary -

• Beyond a close-knit group you lose the reciprocation and tally of give and take that exists in a smaller group.
• That means people just don’t feel bad about not paying.
• There’s no threat of being labeled as ungrateful or someone for whom no favors should be done.

Outside of a well-knit group our level of committment to paying for what we receive and the threat of penalties are both very low.

True Fans as Evangelists

Take the Kindle. If Amazon could get -

1. 1,000 True Fans that each helped sell 1 Kindle a day.
2. Another 9,000 2nd level Fans that each helped sell 1 Kindle each week.

They’d be looking at 66,000 Kindle sales just via their fans.

If they could ramp it up to 1,000 True Fans selling 5 Kindles each a day – That would account for 150,000 Kindles a month.

Just 1,000 True Fans could lead to 1.8 million Kindle sales a year.

True Fans as True Customers

Here are all the benefits that Amazon got from Amazon Fans/Customers -

1. They trusted Amazon and took a chance on the Kindle.
2. At numerous times, when the Press was writing off the Kindle, they saved the Kindle.
3. Initiatives like See a Kindle in Your city helped sell more Kindles.
4. Whenever there were attacks actual Kindle owners stepped in and corrected mistakes.

Read this Jeff Bezos interview with Newsweek and this snippet jumps out (in addition to the title) -

We start with the customer and we work backward. We learn whatever skills we need to service the customer. We build whatever technology we need to service the customer.

The focus on customer service leads to True Fans. Those in turn become True Customers.

Dunbar’s Number and Size of the Team

Most of the eReaders being made are being made by teams smaller in size than Dunbar’s number -

1. Amazon set-up a separate company, Lab 126, that focused entirely on the Kindle. While they’re probably 200-400 people now, it was almost certainly a very close-knit team of around 100-200 during the development of the Kindle.
2. Hearst has a dedicated team of 50 or so at First Paper LLC working on the Skiff Reader. 
3. Kobo Books is working as a start-up. 

To make a really good, cohesive eReader you need a well-knit, cohesive team and that means small start-ups within larger companies.

Closing Thought – 150 True Fans

The magic recipe really does seem to be -

1. A very close-knit team of 150-200 people all on the same page. 
2. 150-200 True Fans that are connected to the company and to each other.
3. Concentric circles of Fans in intersecting groups sized under Dunbar’s Number.

That would be the best way to go about launching and pushing a new eReader.

It’s quite interesting that B&N and Sony are both doing little to develop dedicated fans. It’s hurting them in ways they don’t even grasp.

Even more interesting is that the two biggest threats to the Kindle in 2010 are Apple and Google – companies that go out of their way to create True Fans.

Filed under: thoughts Tagged: | dunbar's number, the Kindle, true fans