Kindle Review – Kindle Fire Review, Kindle 4 Review

The Kindle has faced tons of speculation – Is it really selling? How much is it selling? 

Now, it’s the Nook’s turn. Michael Arrington at TechCrunch has written an article on Nook sales which is hard to fathom.

He’s basically saying -

1. His Asian sources have told him 60,000 Nooks will ship this year. 
2. B&N have 500,000 Nooks set to ship in the first 3 months of 2010.

The huge gap between those two numbers makes you wonder about the validity.

Did B&N ship just 60,000 Nooks this year?

The Nook was available for pre-order around October 20th and got sold out on November 20th.

NY Times has details and the crux is -

1. October 20th to November 20th pre-orders led to the Nook selling out.
2. Orders after November 20th would only reach post January 4th.
3. That means the first 1 month of pre-orders was 60,000 – if TechCrunch’s numbers are right.

That doesn’t make sense because -

1. The Kindle had its best month of sales (up to that point) in November.  
2. Best month means more sales than the Kindle 2 launch month or Oprah Kindle month. 
3. Nook was getting a lot more love from the press than the Kindle.
4. Nook was getting a ton of positive articles from the Press and the big blogs (even though no one had touched a Nook).
5. It was the launch month – which means lots of people waiting for a viable Kindle alternative must have jumped.

The combination of Kindle having its best month ever and the Nook getting more buzz and coverage means that it’s inconceivable that just 60,000 Nooks sold in the first 30 days after launch.

Are Nook really going to sell 500,000 Nooks in Jan to Mar 2010?

Any orders after November 20th ship in 2010 so that’s when our clock starts. There are 2 time periods -

1. November 20th to end of December. This is all the people who preordered or ordered despite mostly negative Nook reviews.
2. January, February, March 2010. This is when B&N expect to have Nook in stores and get more sales.

The sales in the first time period must have been huge – it’s Christmas shopping season, B&N’s promise to fix speed issues calmed a lot of people, and eReaders in general did very well.

The sales in the second time period ought to be significant too – first three months of 2010 you suddenly get Nooks in store and can start utilizing your retail presence, you fix the common issues, and people see other people with Nooks and get interested.

Add up sales across both time periods and it’s quite plausible that B&N sell 500,000 total Nooks in November 20th, 2009 to end of March 2010.

More reasonable Nook sales estimates for 2009

Whether you consider -

1. Forrester’s estimate of 1 million eReaders sold in the 2009 holiday season. OR
2. CitiGroup’s estimate of 2 million Kindles sold in 2009.

You have to factor in the combination of the launch of the Nook and all the positive press it was getting -

1. If 1 million eReaders were sold in 2009, then Nook must have gotten (thanks to the press and the buzz) at least 30% of that. At least half of that would be in October 20th to November 20th giving us 150,000 Nook sales.
2. If 2 million Kindles were sold in 2009 and November and December were the two best months, then November must have seen at least 300,000 Kindles sold. Considering that Nook was getting all the attention it’s safe to asume it sold at least half as much as the Kindle. That again gives us 150,000 sales in the first month.

Number of Nooks shipped this year ought to be over 150,000 and the 400,000 estimate thrown about in Nook forums is not out of the question.

Would B&N be foolish enough to order just 60,000 Nooks?

If B&N were coming in with a new eReader they must have had some idea that the Kindle was selling well.

Would they really go into the holiday season, with their 770 stores (excluding 600+ college bookstores), expecting to sell just 845 Nooks a day?

It’s like saying B&N expected to sell -

1. 1 Nook a day at each store.  
2. 75 Nooks a day online.

Really?

That’s very, very hard to believe.

It’s much likelier that they planned for 200,000 or more Nooks in their first order – and that order sold out in a month.

Closing Thought – 500,000 is a good number

What does this say about eReader sales in 2010?

• The big positive is that even the #2 (or perhaps #3) eReader company in the market is expecting to sell half a million Nooks in the first 3 months of 2010.
• It wouldn’t be a surprise if Sony, due to their international availability and wider range of models, sells as many or more Sony Readers in the first 3 months of 2010.

That’s 1 million eReaders sold in the first quarter without even counting the Kindle.

The Kindle might very well see launches of the Kindle DX 2 (international version) and the Kindle 3 and eclipse those numbers.

Filed under: Barnes Noble Nook Tagged: | nook sales estimate