This review ought to teach me not to make predictions in an area evolving as quickly as eBooks and eReaders 
.
Here are my predictions for the kindle in 2009 and quick thoughts on each -
Review of 2009 Kindle Predictions
#1 Millions of Kindles Sold
The prediction -
There will be millions of Kindles sold – The figure will be close to 3 million. Amazon will continue to actively downplay estimates and will refuse to divulge sales. An ‘expert analyst’ will predict 2 million kindle sales in 2009, and then revise the figure to 5 million.
We still don’t know how many Kindles are sold. Citigroup have said 2 million Kindles sold in 2009 and it looks likely that Kindle sales were in the millions.
Score: .75.
#2 Amazon will have more out of stock disasters
The prediction -
Amazon will have more out of stock disasters – Kindle 2 and Kindle TextBook Edition will both face shortages when released and Amazon will again mess up during the Holiday season.
Not counting the beginning of the year Kindle 2 shortages.
- Kindle DX was sold out after release and again during the end of the holiday season.
- Kindle 2 was in stock throughout.
Kudos to Amazon for keeping the Kindle 2 in stock.
Score: .5.
#3 Kindle DX gets bad reviews, sells well and more than Kindle 2.
This went completely wrong.
The prediction -
Amazon’s TextBook Kindle will get really bad critical reviews, and will sell a ton. Its sales will outpace sales of Kindle 2 and Kindle 1.
Kindle DX reviews weren’t bad and sales were nowhere near Kindle 2.
Score: 0.
#4 Apple release iSlate i.e. large screen iPod Touch in October to Nov 2009
The prediction -
Apple will release a large screen touch in Oct to Nov 2009. The 9″ Apple iTouch will be targeted at netbooks, and not at the Kindle.
This will however not translate into a high number of actual ebooks sold and the Kindle will remain the #1 ecosystem for ebooks. Despite this, the aforementioned ‘Experts’ will hand Apple the eReader crown
This is a mixed bag -
- All signs point to a January 2010 announcement of the iSlate.
- The ‘Experts’ did hand Apple the eReader crown for the iPhone. However, eBook sales on the iPhone don’t bear that out (please see my post on iPhone Book App Sales Statistics).
Missed the date by a couple months and got most of the rest right.
Score: .5.
#5 Kindle goes international before Christmas
The prediction -
Kindle will go international – probably in March, and definitely before Christmas season.
International sales will be significant i.e. >10% of total sales (including textbook kindle).
Amazon will mess up their supply line for international sales too – and the Kindle will remain out of stock for most countries for large periods
Right on Kindle Global being released before Christmas and becoming >10%. Wrong on supply issues.
Score: .5.
#6 Sony release wireless eReader, sell less than 500,000 readers, introduce a color reader by end 2009
The prediction -
Sony will release a wireless eReader with a really inelegant wireless feature (this is rumored for March – courtesy a reader). Sony will sell less than 500,000 readers in 2009.
Right on Sony releasing an inelegant wireless feature. Probably wrong on sales and definitely wrong on color eReader.
Score: .25.
#7 eReader market will become crowded, eBook software companies target netbooks
The prediction -
The eReader market will become crowded – with a number of companies trying to wrest the #2 spot from Sony’s Reader.
A lot of ebook reading software companies will start targeting netbooks aggressively.
Right on the overcrowding of the eReader market and also releases for PCs (Kindle for PC, B&N eReader for PC and Mac).
Score: .75.
#8 More than one kindle self-published author will be offered a contract
The prediction -
More than one kindle self-published author will be offered a book contract.
A kindle specific rankings site focusing on self published authors will become very popular. It will not be an amazon site.
All of this will grow Amazon’s Book Publishing 2.0 ecosystem
Right on the book contract (Boyd Morrison, John Rector, film pilot for Karen McQuestion). Wrong on indie site becoming big for indie kindle authors. Right on Amazon’s publishing eco-system becoming stronger.
Score: .75.
#9 Newspapers will die, Kindle subscriptions will hit the 100K+ mark.
The prediction -
A lot of newspapers will die – Kindle subscriptions will hit the 100K+ mark for multiple newspapers.
At least 1 kindle specific newspaper will be released (targeting no-one except kindle owners) and get to 10,000+ subscriptions.
Lots of Newspapers did die. Kindle subscriptions hit 30,000 mark a few months ago for 2 newspapers. No Kindle specific newspaper.
Score: .5.
#10 Google Book Search will start selling out of print and in print books
The prediction -
Google Book Search will start selling out of print and in print books.
This is happening and Google Editions has been announced – However, it doesn’t go live till mid-2010.
Score: .5.
Overall Score and Thoughts
Got a score of 5 out of 10. The predictions that are good ones to get right (for the most part) -
- Kindle sales in the millions. Predicting this a year ago might seem like a bold prediction but the trends predicted it.
- Apple iSlate and Google Editions – A few months early on each. These are easy predictions though.
- More than one Kindle self-published author gets a contract.
There were just 3-4 predictions in there that were actually bold ones. Predictions don’t seem to be my cup of tea - analysis and Kindle reviews and eReader comparisons are more fun.
Filed under: thoughts Tagged: | kindle predictions
So when will we see a Kindle 3? I’m thinking of getting a Kindle Int’l but don’t want to see a Kindle 3 come out a month or two later. I think Amazon will actually wait towards the end of next year, perhaps as late as September to release a new Kindle. I also wonder what technologies they will incorporate…
that’s a good question. Will Amazon have enough new technology for a February release?
There are so many wild cards with all the new eReaders and Tablets coming out at CES 2010 that it’s hard to even speculate on a Kindle 3 release date.
Perhaps January 15th is a good date since the 30 day return window gives you till Feb mid in case Kindle 3 comes out in Feb.