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There seems to be this trend of taking things that are happening in the world of technical books and assuming they apply to the rest of Publishing.

Consider these articles courtesy O’Reilly -

1. Android Apps Gaining Ground on iPhone - Apparently 22% of O’Reilly’s sales were on Android in the last 2 weeks.
2. Rise of iPhone, Watch out Kindle - Computerworld article based on data from O’Reilly.
3. Comparison of downloads in different formats showing the rise of ePub. 
4. The theory that Digital does not cannibalize Print.

There are two parts to this -

1. Look, this is what is happening with our books.
2. This is what’s going to happen in the broader market.

It’s the second part that doesn’t make sense to me.

Are technical book sales and behavior a lead indicator for All Book sales?

Let’s consider the underlying trends which the first 3 articles are hinting at and ask ourselves – Do these technical book trends herald larger similar trends in books?

Is Android really gaining ground on iPhone?

While iPhone App stars like GameLoft and indie developers like SpreadSound are deprioritizing Android, O’Reilly is suggesting that Android is a significant source of sales and gaining ground on the iPhone.

There are two possibilities -

1. The first is that O’Reilly is right and Android book sales are going to take off. In that case Publishers should start targeting Android.
2. The second is that GameLoft and other developers are right. O’Reilly’s success is simply a function of the environment i.e. Android tends to attract people who value openness and technical skills. They might want everything free but when it comes to career skills they are ready to pay $20-$30 a book.

The latter is quite plausible – When it comes to increasing our skills and earnings and satisfaction we tend to gladly pay for things, regardless of what our beliefs about openness might be.

Does that mean people would pay for other types of books?

It’s not a huge jump to imagine that technically oriented people value technical books more than they would value other books.

Which means it’s not a given that Android is a great platform for other book genres.

Is iPhone really a threat to the Kindle?

This is regarding the Computer World article that speculates that because Publishers are sending out a lot of ‘book apps’ for the iPhone the iPhone is a huge threat to the Kindle.

There are so many flaws with this argument.

1. There’s a big difference between millions of products available and millions of sales being made.
2. Consider sales figures for the top iPhone Book Apps. Books might be getting added faster than any other category of apps – However, they’re not selling anywhere near games.

All we’re left with is the fat and long tail argument i.e. There are no big, huge successes – However, we have lots and lots of successes that just manage to stay out of the Book Apps Top 100.

Have no answer for that.

O’Reilly had talked a lot about the success of their ‘iPhone Secrets’ Book App for the iPhone. It’s not really as relevant as you might imagine because -

1. It would be a minor miracle if an iPhone secrets/guide did not sell well to iPhone owners.
2. There’s zero correlation you can make between sales of an iPhone guide to iPhone owners and any other type of book.

All we know about the viability of selling books on the iPhone is that Publishers are really hoping they can sell $10 and $20 books amidst $1 and $2 games and apps.

Is ePub really taking over?

The article comparing the popularity of various download formats (for O’Reilly’s technical books) is perhaps most interesting.

It shows that ePub is rising, PDF is declining and mobi (Kindle compatible) is rising at a slower clip than ePub.

Case 1: It’s valid and ePpub is really eating up PDF and outpacing MobiPocket. Look at the graph and it would seem that ePub is set to win the format war.

Case 2: It’s self-selection bias. People buying O’Reilly technical books are much more inclined to believe in openness and hate DRM and would tend to choose a format like ePub.

You get certain groups of people where formats and being able to read in various formats and lack of DRM becomes much more important than it is to the average reader. ePub as a format and DRM free as a model is obviously going to dominate there. 

In the mainstream people don’t know much about formats and you could make a case they wouldn’t care if they did.

It might not be the best idea to treat technical book sales as a lead indicator

Technical books have a lot going for them online -

1. Technical books are the sort of books most likely to hold value for technically inclined people.
2. They are usually books necessary for improving skills and increasing people’s earning potential and actual earnings.
3. Often they are books used for reference in and around normal work – a context completely different from leisure reading.
4. They, arguably, have a larger audience.
5. Technology is constantly evolving which means shorter shelf life for technical books.
6. There are no books from 150 years ago to compete with.

Basically, the Internet is very close to an ideal market for technical books.

Most other genres of books face a challenging online environment -

1. People don’t understand the amount of effort the author put in. 
2. People don’t see the work that goes into creating the polished book. 
3. It’s easy for people to say ‘information should be free’ because devaluing that genre of books doesn’t devalue their professions.
4. There are usually lots of books in the public domain. 

These factors, along with other factors and justifications, lead to a situation where non-technical books just aren’t valued as much.

It’s easier for people online to value the work of a programmer than the work of a historian. 

Technical Book Trends primarily predict the future of Technical Books

Every single O’Reilly article applies primarily to technical books.

For books in general -

1. Those trends are not guaranteed.
2. Some of those trends are in fact unlikely.
3. We need to find channels and markets that are more diverse i.e. Kindle Store, Nook Store, etc.
4. We have to factor in that the audience is not as tech savvy as the audience for technical books.
5. There are different ideas that are important (touch and feel of books) as opposed to openness and lack of DRM.

We have different contexts, different audiences, and different ideologies.

It would be madness to make the assumption that what works for technical books will work for all books in general.

Perhaps the single biggest reason is that there is no type of book that people on the Internet understand as well or value as much as a technical book.

Filed under: publishing Tagged: | book publishing, books vs internet