CES has helped paint a picture of where ePaper and eReaders are and that helps review Kindle 3 possibilities –
- When might Kindle 3 be released?
- What killer features might Kindle 3 have?
Let’s walk through the 3 main possibilities.
Kindle 3 – Reviewing a February Kindle 3 release
The first big possibility is that Kindle 3 comes out at the end of February, around a year after the Kindle 2 release date.
That would mean it has 3 or so of the killer features that eReaders launched at CES had -
- Flexible screen that is hard to break.
- Flexible, indestructible screen like Que or Skiff are promising.
- Touchscreen Type 1 - A touchscreen of the type the Sony Reader has, except without adversely impacting visibility. Samsung did this by placing the eInk above the touch layer.
- Touchscreen Type 2 – Ability to write and draw with a lot of fidelity using Wacom technology or another advanced technology. This is unlikely as it adds to costs considerably.
- Social Features – Exactly what Copia are aiming for. Amazon would use its 40% stake in LibraryThing or its ownership of Shelfari.
- Dual Screen Type 1 – Nook and Alex style with a smaller LCD to help with the eInk.
- Dual Screen Type 2 – Entourage Edge style with one eInk screen and one LCD screen and both full size.
- 3rd party apps - Txtr and Hearst Skiff will have this.
- 7″ screen as the standard.
- MicroSD card slot.
- Lower Prices – This wasn’t really present at CES so Amazon could really differentiate by dropping prices to $199.
- Much faster screen refreshes. To be fair Amazon has improved this a lot.
Touchscreen (the simple version, not the Wacom one), 7″ screen, and Flexible, unbreakable screen are the most likely additions. The price drop is somewhat likely too.
We will probably also see additional features and upgrades to the Kindle service (probably over half of these) –
- Speech to Text. Perhaps not a killer feature, just a good addition to text to speech.
- Ability to change which font is used and the boldness of the font.
- Folders – It’s supposed to be mid 2010 and a surprise would be nice.
- Accessible Mode – SuperSize Font and Read To Me Menus.
- Better keyboard or a move to an on-screen haptic keyboard.
- Support for Library Books.
We’d be talking about a Kindle 3 that was more of a Kindle 2.3. Evolutionary and not revolutionary and one that puts significant distance between itself and the Nook.
Probability: 75%. Amazon does need to respond to Nook and the slew of new eReaders. It might also have an Apple iSlate to contend with. A February Kindle 3 release date is very probable.
Kindle 3 – A Summer, Pixel Qi powered Kindle 3
This is perhaps the most intriguing possibility.
There’s a good chance that Amazon decide it’s worth delaying the Kindle 3 release to May or June 2010 as long as they can deliver a color Kindle.
We would probably see -
- A Kindle 3 powered by Pixel Qi’s magic screen.
- A screen that is unbreakable or really hard to break.
- Kindle transition from a 6″ to a 7″ screen.
- The keyboard removed to keep the size of the Kindle the same.
- Some sort of touch and writing support.
- Faster screen refreshes due to it being a Pixel Qi screen.
In this case the Pixel Qi screen would mean the price stays around $250.
Probability: 25%. Kindle 3 powered by Pixel Qi and releasing in the summer is a very intriguing prospect. However, it sets Kindle 3 up for failure in the holiday season. Amazon might do this to respond to the Apple iSlate even though it’s not the best move.
If Kindle 3 could have Pixel Qi screens and also release in Feb 2010 – that would be a killer combination.
Kindle 3 – Reviewing a Mirasol powered Kindle 3 that arrives Fall 2010
If Amazon put their focus on having the very best possible Kindle for holiday season then Mirasol might be their only option.
Let’s disregard the slight chance that eInk deliver a color eInk screen by Fall 2010 and assume that the best color ePaper available in 2010 is Mirasol.
In that case, we would see -
- Kindle 3 powered by Mirasol color ePaper.
- 7″ or 6″ screen with touch capabilities (touch layer below eInk) and support for writing.
- Flexible and almost unbreakable screen.
- Speech to Text.
- Ability to change the font (not just the size) and to bold the font.
- Support for Video.
- Support for vooks and digital books.
We might also see a new addition to the Kindle family - a device capable of and tailored to consuming multiple content types.
Probability: 75%. Amazon needs a color Kindle for this holiday season and a color Kindle they will have.
Closing Thought – Will 2010 see both Kindle 3 and Kindle 4?
You have to wonder if 2010 will see two separate Kindle releases.
Could we see a flexible Kindle 3 that supports writing released in February 2010 and a color Kindle 4 released in October?
- The Apple iSlate is looming and the Nook has almost caught up.
- Amazon need a strong Kindle release early in the year to stay in front (or keep pace).
- At the same time the multiple color eReader technologies i.e. Mirasol, Liquavista, Pixel Qi mean that there will be color eReaders out this year.
- Amazon will need a color eReader by holiday season to compete.
All signs point to two Kindle releases this year - a Kindle 3 release in February 2010 and a Kindle 4 release in October 2010.
In the year of the eReader the only way for Amazon to keep pole position is to ramp up their product cycle and release both Kindle 3 and Kindle 4.
Filed under: kindle 3 Tagged: | kindle 3, kindle 3 release date
One problem with Kindle 2 is that Amazon *rarely* updates. It took about a month and several messages to get the upgrade from 2.0 to 2.3. Yet, it is not good. The battery icon does not show percentage. Why you read on iPhone, you can see how much you have left. Why is Kindle not getting usability designers into their teams is beyond me. You cannot compete with all these e-readers with no designers or researchers focusing on use-practices. Also, Amazon should have a plan to allow people to upgrade from K2 to K3 by sending K2 to Amazon who in turn will send to other places in the world. Bottom line: better customer service, better interface, and better upgrades. That is a way Amazon will beat others. Not bloody likely….
What are “all signs” which point to two Kindle releases in one year? I love this blog but I hate the unsubstantiated assumptions you sometimes make. First, Amazon has never released two models in one calender year. Second, if there was to be a release int he nearterm, say the next two months, wouldn’t we have heard rumors about it from the supply chain at the very least? How long have the iSlate rumors been around and how many more have they been as we get closer to an announcement?
Last year you were very sure that there would be a Kindle 3 with little or no support, can you honestly say that you have more data other than your own conjecture this time around?
It is conjecture. The post clearly has ‘possibilities’ in it.
There aren’t really any ‘supply chain’ rumors for Kindle releases. The international Kindle DX release was supposed to be in March to mid 2010 according to rumors.
I only hope that however you recv’d this info. that it is correct. I would love for kindle 3 to be out this February. I have put off buying my kindle, as I’m sure many have, Now the best thing to happen is #3 comeing soon and being $260.00 or less. If someone else knows any more news, please tell us, Thank you,
Liz
This is just speculation. Please don’t take this as fact.
“In the year of the eReader the only way for Amazon to keep pole position is to ramp up their product cycle and release both Kindle 3 and Kindle 4.”
I think this is a flawed assumption. We believe Kindle ahs the largest installed base. That alone will keep them in a good postion since most people who have a Kindle 1 or 2 will want to stay in the Amazon ecosystem. Amazon could release only one kindle update, as they did last year if you remember, and still stay on top. the real questions are: timing and features. Will see see color, or a flexible display in 2010? Will the price point stay the same or drop?
If they went with the Qi or Mirasol options (preferably Mirasol, assuming the tech works as advertised), I’d probably be in the market for a Kindle 3. The other possibilities just don’t sound like a meaningful upgrade to the device I already have. At least, not enough to justify spending another few hundred dollars, and possibly not at all – I really don’t know why I would want an LCD screen, for example.
A bit like the DS Lite over the original DS – sure, the screen(s) are better and the form factor’s a bit trimmer and the brightness is adjustable, but…well, so what? That’s nowhere near $130 worth of improvement. Maybe $10.
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