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Larry Dignan at ZDNet picks up on a Yankee Group report that predicts 6 million eReaders will be sold in 2010 -

Six million e-book readers will be sold in 2010 alone, and Yankee Group expects the market to grow to $2.5 billion by 2013.

We predict that the first manufacturer to build an under-$150 e-book reader that focuses solely on reading, not on fancy frills and features, will win.

Forrester predicted a $50 breaking point and Yankee Group are predicting a $150 breaking point. The latter is more reasonable although my money’s on a $199 eReader (with Wireless Access included) being the turning point.

6 million in 2010, 19.2 million in 2013?

ZDNet adds some more snippets from the report -

2010: 5.99 million eReaders sold.

2011: 8.64 million eReaders sold.

2012: 12.78 million eReaders sold. Prices fall to $150 per eReader average.

By 2013, 19.2 million e-reader units will be sold a year.

By 2013, the installed e-reader base will be more than 36 million.

Have to say this is a pretty reasonable set of estimates. It’s not too optimistic and it’s not too pessimistic.

MinOnline adds on more -

Also by 2013, Yankee thinks about half of those who show an interest in these devices will already have purchased one.

Unlike the iPod, which hooked serious music buyers in addition to a raft of casual listeners, e-book reader adoption will be limited to heavy readers only – at least until prices come down.

If by 2013 half the potential market will have eReaders and there will be 36 million eReaders, that means the Yankee Group think the total eReader market might be as much as 72 million. Have to agree with it being that much or more.

Yankee Group’s Puzzling eReader Definition

Something that was a bit puzzling was the Yankee Group’s restrictions around defining an eReader -

Processor speeds limited to 700 Mhz or less;

ePaper displays;

Storage capped at 4 GB.

Shouldn’t any device that is focused entirely on reading qualify as an eBook Reader?

The processor speed and memory capacity limitations are arcane and bound to be exceeded in 2010 itself.

PVI to triple capacity in 2010, Will add Color Screens

Business Week has the scoop on PVI’s eReader Screen plans for 2010 -

Prime View International Co., supplier of the E Ink technology used in Amazon.com Inc.’s Kindle and Sony Corp.’s Reader, plans to triple capacity as clients release new color, touch-screen and flexible electronic book readers.

There are lots of interesting data points -

1. PVI clearly state that color eReaders built on PVI screens will be introduced this year. 
2. They also say clients will be shipping touchscreen eReaders and flexible screen eReaders.  
3. PVI has struck deals with LG Display and Chi Mei Optoelectronics Corp to boost its production.
4. The retail price of color eReaders will be up to 50% more than black and white eReaders.
5. There’s a great story of the PVI chairman visiting eInk in Boston and falling in love with the technology – still think their buying eInk is the steal of 2009.

Perhaps the most interesting information is this prediction from DisplaySearch -

The global electronic paper market will climb 41 percent annually over 10 years as companies including China Mobile Ltd. seek to offer electronic readers, according to researcher DisplaySearch

Closing Thought – It’s Happening, eReaders are going main-stream

We are just 2 years and 2 months removed from a time when -

1. People thought the total market for eReaders was 40,000. 
2. People were making fun of a device that could do nothing except read.  
3. There was bias everywhere – to the point that people were making up outright lies.
4. No one except Amazon and Sony was interested in eBooks and eReaders.

While 2. and 3. haven’t changed much 1. and 4. have and if you love reading and books that’s all that matters.

You can be sure that even when we have 35 million eReaders in circulation we’ll have people befuddled that anyone would buy a device for reading – Why don’t you just read books on your holographic projectron - it’s got words in 3D you know and you can ask it to create a virtual reality world for your book instead of having to waste your time imagining things.

Filed under: eBook Reader Devices Tagged: | eReader sales estimates, sales estimates