Kindle Review – Kindle Fire Review, Kindle 4 Review

DigiTimes had an eReader seminar at the end of December 2009 and DIGITIMES Research Analyst Kuo, Ming-Chi presented a review of his eReader sales estimates.

This is the first time, to my knowledge, that these figures are being shared in the US. They’re really good estimates -

Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 - eReader Sales Estimates

DigiTimes is close to all the manufacturers in Taiwan and Asia and has the best sources of information - If there’s anyone who might be really close to actual eReader Sales figures it’s DigiTimes.

Main Details from DigiTimes Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

Here are the most interesting insights and estimates -

eReader Sales in 2009  

We see the US and the Kindle dominate eReader sales -

1. 3.82 million eReaders shipped in 2009. 
2. Amazon owned 63.4% market share – That’s 2.42 million eReaders. 
3. US has around 70-80% of eReader Sales and North America has much as 84.7%.
4. Nook was postponed because of production line problems. 

The estimates are higher than what most other analysts are predicting. Digitimes and Ming have the advantage of knowing what’s happening in the factories in Asia.

eReader Sales Projections for 2010

The estimates are again more positive than analysts in the US –  

1. 9.3 million eReaders are predicted to be sold in 2010.
2. 1.5 million of these will be in China.  
3. Amazon’s brand share goes down from 63.4% to 43.3% (4.03 million units) as Nook (16.3%) and Sony (13.8%, 1.28 million units) get a larger share.
4. 3G eReaders hit $200 in 2010 and WiFi eReaders hit $150.
5. B&N is expected to release a $150 eReader to go with Nook at $259, iRex 800 at $399, and Que at $649/$799. 
6. North America still has 72% of eReader Sales. Asia becomes a bigger market than Europe.
7. 1.6 million Apple iSlates scheduled in first batch with Cortex-A9 ARM CPU and SSD storage.

We see that the US will still dominate eReader sales and the Kindle will still dominate – The drop in market share from 63.4% to 43.3% is rather drastic and the analysis might be expecting Nook to improve quicker than it is. It also doesn’t factor in the new Kindle App Store.

eReader Sales Estimates down the line

This is where the DigiTimes estimates start seeming overly optimistic –  

1. 16.21 million eReaders sold in 2011. 
2. 22.78 million eReaders sold in 2012.
3. 28.01 million eReaders sold in 2013. 

These are really interesting estimates – much, much more optimistic than the Yankee Group eReader Sales Estimates that stated 19.2 million eReaders in 2013.

Are DigiTimes just wishing for an eReader boom or are they actually seeing signs that sales like these are likely?

Looking Back at eReader Sales Estimates for 2008 and 2009

It’s funny that even for 2008 and 2009 we only have estimates.

eReader Sales in 2009 – Why we saw the trends we did

The estimates for quarterly shipments are -

1. Q1, 2009 – 380,000. This is the off-season for consumer electronics. Kindle 2 release did create sales. 
2. Q2, 2009 – 590,000. 
3. Q3, 2009 – 1.23 million. Kindle got a price cut, Sony launched new models and supposedly China had an eReader sales boost. 
4. Q4, 2009 – 1.62 million. Kindle got another price-cut, went international. Ming estimates 960,000 to 1.2 million Kindles sold in Q4, 2009.
5. Q1, 2010 – 1.22 million. Apple announcing the iSlate and it being the off-season for consumer electronics factor into lower sales than the Christmas Quarter.

 eReader Sales in 2008

It’s interesting to see that only 700,000 eReader shipments are listed for 2008. That might not be accurate -

1. Sony have said that by January 2009 they had sold 500,000 units - At least 300,000 of those must have been in 2008. 
2. Kindle might have sold half a million or more units in 2008.
3. The Oprah Effect also suggests that half a million or more Kindles were sold in 2008.
4. The jump from .7 million in 2008 to 3.82 million in 2009 is massive.

The one easy explanation would be that all these Kindles got ordered in 2008 but only shipped in 2009 – which would explain .7 million shipments in 2008.

Closing Thoughts – For 2009 and 2010 these are the best estimates I’ve seen

Not going to put my money on any estimates for 2011 and beyond. However,

1. For 2009 and 2010 these Digitimes/Ming-Chi Kuo estimates are the best estimates I’ve seen.
2. They make the most sense and apart from not agreeing that Amazon’s market share will go down from 63.4% to below 50% agree with pretty much everything else.
3. They are the only estimates that address the break-up of eReader sales between US, Asia and Europe. Those figures in turn help explain why eReader companies (except Amazon) just aren’t that concerned with ‘outside of the US’.

The actual presentation and supporting documents have a ton of great detail – unfortunately, can’t share it so you’ll have to make do with these estimates. Thanks to Ming for sharing out the details and hopefully we can get him to share some more of his analysis with us.

Filed under: evolution Tagged: | eReader sales estimates, kindle sales estimates