Kindle Review – Kindle 3 Review, iPad Review

JesusTablet worship has hit a new high with Newsweek’s article claiming that the Apple iPad/iSlate will upend every single industry -

After early speculation that the gadget would be a “Kindle killer,” a gaming device, or just a really big iPhone, it appears possible that the Apple slate will be … all of the above, a game-changer for an entire range of industries.

The author, Dan Lyons, runs a blog called Fake Steve Jobs so perhaps his worship of the JesusTablet is to be expected.

Here’s his list of industries that the Pad is going to take over -

1. Print (books). 
2. Print (newspapers). 
3. Television.
4. Movies.
5. Music.
6. Gaming.

Well, Apple already controls most of music so that’s 5 entirely new industries that one device is supposed to conquer – while beating cable providers, Netflix, Google (it does have newspaper and ebook solutions), Amazon, Microsoft (Xbox), Sony Playstation, Nintendo, and an entire army of giants.

The easy way out would be to dissect some of the flimsier arguments. However, let’s focus on books – it’s an area we all know and love.

Will the iPad upend the eBook and eReader market?

Please note that we are not talking about newspapers and magazines – just books.

Here’s what Dan Lyons has to say -

Users of the Kindle love its intuitive interface and easy-on-the-eyes E Ink screen — but that display is grayscale-only and slow to load new pages.

Analysts are predicting that Apple’s device will offer so much functionality — color, a real web browser and email client, easy “loaning” of books to friends — that the Kindle will seem prehistoric in comparison.

The blog 9 to 5 Mac says Apple is enticing major publishers with more control over pricing than they have on the Kindle platform.

Every new device is supposed to kill eReaders - will iPad be the one to do it?

The Apple iPad has a chance to upend the market i.e. Show that multi-purpose devices that allow you to read ebooks well will kill off eReaders.

What’s the criteria we use for killing off eReaders? Let’s use two -

1. Out of the 6 million to 9 million eReader sales expected in 2010 half are lost to the Apple iPad. Which means that only 3 to 4.5 million eReaders sell this year (because the Apple iPad steals eReader sales).
2. 50% or more of eBook sales this year are via the Apple iPad.

The latter is a reasonable estimate – if we’re saying that 10 million iPads are sold and they cut eReader sales to 3-4.5 million, then it’s reasonable to expect that more eBooks are sold on iPads than on eReaders.

• The big assumption here is that people actually read eBooks on the iPad.

How will the iPad compare with dedicated eReaders?

Let’s look at the key qualities for reading an eBook on a device (we’re comparing with $259 eReaders) -

1. Screen Readability – Unless Apple is using Pixel Qi’s triple mode displays eReaders win here.
2. Screen Size – Apple wins. 
3. Portability and Weight – eReaders win.  
4. Multiple Functions – iPad Wins.
5. Looks and Sex Appeal – iPad wins.
6. Price – eReaders Win.
7. Total Cost of Ownership – eReaders Win.
8. Battery Life – eReaders win.
9. Color – iPad Wins.
10. Range of Books – Might be a tie.
11. Price of Books – eReaders would win since iPad is going to give Publishers control over pricing.
12. Reference – Tie.

After looking at the first dozen key qualities there’s a clear line being established -

1. The iPad seems to be great for people who want a device they’ll read on occasionally. 
2. Dedicated eReaders seem great for people who want a device primarily for reading.

All the fuss might be for naught.

The iPad, at some level, is just a larger iPhone and it’s going to have a similar impact to what the iPhone had – some people don’t want a device dedicated to reading and they pick the multi-purpose device.

• It might increase the percentage of people who opt for the multi-purpose device – but not to the point that eReaders stop being a booming market.

The revolution that the iPad promises is a convergence device that does everything well.

However, to do games and movies well it has to make sacrifices for reading – the screen can’t be ePaper and the weight and battery life can’t be optimal for reading.

iPad is not going to kindle an eBook revolution – There are already strong eBook channels and there is already strong traction with eBooks

The eBook revolution has already been started -

1. There are millions of eReader owners, including millions of Kindle owners. 
2. There are millions of people reading eBooks on their iPhones, including over a million (approximate estimate) using Kindle for iPhone.
3. We have eReaders being added for the PC, the Mac, Blackbery, and Android.

The ‘it’s going to revolutionize ebooks’ idea is nonsense. We are already beyond the eBook tipping point.

Let’s be very clear that Apple is coming in to try and take over a proven market – it’s not blazing a trail.

That’s why we have -

1. Apple offering Publishers control over pricing – How is that going to help eBooks? If you really think prices over $10 are going to encourage eBook sales you’re mistaken. 
2. Apple offering Publishers control over the relationship with customers. We don’t know whether customers want a direct relationship with Publishers. 

The big argument here will be that Apple will sell 10 million iSlates and create a huge market for ebooks being read on iPads or iSlates. Well, there are a few flaws in that argument -

1. It assumes 10 million iPads will be sold in the first year AND that people will read a lot of books on them.
2. eReaders are supposed to fail because they’re not below $100 and suddenly a $500+ device is going to save eBooks.
3. We already have lots of LCD screens, including mobile ones – Netbooks, iPhones, Androids, etc. Those didn’t lead to a lot of reading.

Apple’s iPad will save Books is a fallacy - eBooks have already crossed the tipping point. We have dozens of eReaders entering the market and color eReaders arriving by end of the year.  

eBooks are not going to be upended or revolutionized. Apple might take over the market – However, it’s inventing nothing.