Kindle Review – Kindle Fire Review, Kindle 4 Review

Confirmation bias is basically our tendency to interpret facts in a way that just reinforces what we already believe.

1. We tend to ignore facts that goes against out beliefs.
2. We also actively search for and pick facts that supports our beliefs.
3. Finally, we interpret data in a biased way.

Understanding Confirmation Bias

Before we jump into why Confirmation Bias is important when it comes to eReaders, let’s cover a few quotes about confirmation bias.

Sir Francis Bacon (courtesy R. S. Nickerson’s paper on Confirmation Bias) -

The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it.

And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises, or else by some distinction sets aside and rejects;

Doug’s Darkworld has a good write-up with some figures to explain Confirmation Bias -

People have a powerful tendency to both notice things that fit their preconceived views and not notice things that might contradict them.

And, frankly, it’s been my observation that most people are so inclined to reinforce their beliefs this way that it’s a waste of time to debate them.

From R. S. Nickerson’s Paper -

 Confirmation bias, as the term is typically used in the psychological literature, connotes the seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations, or a hypothesis in hand.

Confirmation Bias and Kindle vs iPad

Looking at people’s thoughts on Kindle vs iPad reveals a lot of interesting beliefs -

1. A lot of people who love Apple think the iPad is the best device ever invented.
2. People who dislike Apple products thinks its overhyped and a total failure.
3. People who don’t see a use for the iPad in their own lives are assuming it’s already a failure. 
4. eReader owners who love their eReaders think it’ll be terrible for reading.  
5. People who dislike eReaders are interpreting it to mean eReaders will die. 

All these are strong convictions – even though most of these people haven’t used an iPad (including me) and no one has actually used it for reading or for anything else.

Perhaps the ultimate example of iPad related confirmation bias -

• Interactive Bureau of Advertising’s head Randall Rothenberg who thinks the iPad is a threat to online ads. Why? Because it doesn’t support Flash and most online display ad campaigns are in Flash.

If you think about it – It seems pretty ridiculous that someone would jump from a lack of support for Flash on a Tablet to a threat for online ads.

However, each one of us makes the same mistake – We take things and re-interpret them in ways that make sense in our world and agree with our core beliefs.

eReaders and Confirmation Bias

We are all constantly interpreting reality - twisting it in ways that make sense to us and make us happy.

That’s why we have –  

1. People who think nothing could be as good as books.  
2. eReader owners who love eInk. 
3. Kindle owners who don’t get the Sony and Sony owners who don’t get the Kindle.
4. iPhone owners who don’t understand why anyone would buy a Kindle.  
5. People who think the iPad is a Kindle killer without using either.

Which leads us to the whole point of this post.

How can we avoid confirmation bias and make a fair call on eReaders?

This might be an intractable problem.

1. Initially you’d think you could remove confirmation bias by trying every reading device (and of course good old books).
2. Then you realize you can’t just try it – You have to live with it. So you spend 4-6 weeks with each.
3. At that point you think you have the problem solved. However, different users have different needs.
4. So you would have to spend 4-6 weeks in a particular customer’s mindset with each device.

By the time you finish the last part eReaders have evolved 2 generations and changed completely.

The best solution is to design an eReader for a particular segment 

When you think about it -

1. The Kindle is perfect for star Amazon customers i.e. people who read a lot and absolutely love books.  
2. The iPad is probably perfect for star Apple Customers.  

Both companies are designing devices that are perfect for their targeted customer base.

The obvious limitation is that you have to design a device per market segment. Which brings us to the next best solution.

The second best solution is to design a malleable platform and device and let it be molded to fit different segments

This is exactly what the App Store is. Hopefully, it’s what the Kindle App Store becomes too.

1. Take a device that’s fundamentally a good device.
2. Create a development kit that lets developers mold the device into any number of uses.
3. Let them target different customer segments.

The bonus is that underlying it all is your device and your platform.

The strength of this strategy is that you cater very well to -

1. People who want multiple functionality in your device. 
2. People who would never get a quality device for their particular need at a price they’d like.

The weakness is that your device is not as specialized as it could be. It’s cursed to be a good fit and never a perfect fit.

eReaders App Stores are the best way to harness Confirmation Bias

Let’s consider a very different, positive view of Confirmation Bias -

1. Each segment of customers sees the world in a particular way.
2. They want a device that fits in perfectly.
3. Ideally they get a device completely dedicated to them and their needs.
4. Next best, they get a device that can be molded (easily) to fit their needs.

Confirmation Bias is a good thing because only things that are part of a customer’s world matter. Even amongst those things – the relative importance varies.

If John loves books and reading makes him happy then he ought to have confirmation bias.

• Devices that are for reading, books, the smell of books - all of these things should seem inordinately important to John. 
• A device that tries to sacrifice reading for something less important deserves his wrath.  

With an App Store each user can get his/her fill of Confirmation Bias

eReaders have a lot of the ingredients readers want -

1. Great readable screen.
2. Amazing Battery Life.
3. Relatively low prices. 
4. $9.99 books and an ever increasing range.

However, beyond that they fail to provide what customers want.

An App Store lets developers mold eReaders to match customers’ expectations.

1. A customer can pick the apps that have the most impact on her/his eReader experience. 
2. The more suited the eReader becomes the more Confirmation Bias supports the eReader’s importance to the user. 

Soon we’re at the point where no other device could steal those users because no other device confirms as well to the user’s needs and beliefs.

The more eReaders cater to user needs the more successful they’ll be

There was a comment that the worst thing Kindle could do would be to try to become a multi-purpose device - that’s amazingly valid.

The Kindle App Store should let users make their Kindles more and more specialized to their reading needs.

The Kindle should literally be able to transform into each of these -

1. Sheet Music Reader. 
2. Recipe Manual.  
3. Doctor’s Report.  
4. Book Reader.
5. Newspaper Reader.

These and 10,000 other reading related functions.

Each eReader owner that is writing about how much they love eInk and scoffing at the rumored demise of eReaders is further incentive for Amazon and Sony. 

1. To stick with dedicated eReaders. 
2. To improve and evolve their eReaders 
3. To leverage eReader App Stores to make eReaders even more valuable for readers.

Let’s hope eReaders stay focused on reading and eReader App Stores are given a lot of flexibility and freedom.

Filed under: thoughts Tagged: | confirmation bias, ereader apps