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It’s worth wondering where Publishing might be in 10 years. For this post we’re limiting ourselves to books – reading and publishing books.

Publishing and Books in 10 years

Will there be more readers?

This might be the biggest judge of whether eReaders and eBooks are a good thing.  

1. Will there be more people reading books or less?
2. Will these people be reading more books per person?

There’s an important category of readers – those who aren’t able to find the time to read though they would love to. eReaders and eBooks are reaching a lot of these people and getting them to read again.

You have to imagine that if dedicated eReaders keep growing both the number of people reading and the numbers of books read will go up.

What share of the market will ebooks have?

There are some obvious buckets of probability -

1. 80% eBooks and 20% physical books. 
2. A 50-50 split. 
3. 20% eBooks and 80% physical books.

The rapid growth of eBooks and the generous 10 year period would make us think that the 50-50 split is quite likely.

How many eReaders will be in circulation?

This is a good question. Most analysts predict 15-25 million eReaders sold in 2013 and 30-40 million eReaders in circulation by then.

Assuming we hit those numbers we might see one of -

1. eReader numbers stabilize around 40 million eReaders in circulation any given time. 
2. eReader numbers keep growing and hit 100 million eReaders in circulation by 2020.

Directly related is our next question.

Will eReaders be a niche market or not?

No. My gut feeling on this is that everyone is underestimating -

1. Just how much reading people do - Sites, Blogs, Email, Books, Newspapers, Work, School, and College.
2. Just how much better eReaders are for reading than multi-purpose devices.

At some level a lot of the solutions – including Pixel Qi are a visceral reaction to the idea that a device does nothing except read.

There is nothing else that people do more of than reading. Yet a device that is optimized for reading is considered to be not doing enough.

eReaders will not be a niche market.

Will multi-purpose devices kill eReaders?

They haven’t so far and now everyone is betting on the iPad even though it’s not optimized for reading.

Will there be a multi-purpose device that can do more than just read and at the same time is as good for reading as a dedicated eReader? Perhaps.

However, no one is focused on a device like this.

Most companies’ focus is to devote 10% of their energy to reading and 90% to other things. Devices of that nature are not going to be a threat to dedicated eReaders.

Will one company dominate eReader sales?

This is a very interesting question. It depends on how big the eReader market gets -

1. If the eReader market stabilizes around 30-40 million eReaders then yes, one company (or at most 2) will dominate.
2. If the eReader market stabilizes around 100 million eReaders then it’s too big for any 1 single company to dominate.

Will one company dominate eBook sales?

This is actually a very likely scenario.

1. Amazon is in great position to dominate eBook sales.
2. Google and Apple will mount serious challenges – However, Google does not have its own device and Apple has to let Amazon into its devices.

The frontrunner in eBooks gets a lot of power and the benefit of network effects and economies of scale and has a pretty good chance of continuing and expanding its dominance.

If you ponder this question on the magical grounds of user information and customer behavior Amazon again has a huge advantage – even over Google.

Will there be any monopolies?

Yes. There will definitely be monopolies in -

1. The starting point to search for books (a search engine).
2. Publishing eBooks.
3. Selling eBooks (whichever company dominates that arena).
4. eReaders too (if we stabilize at less than 50 million eReaders).

There will be different companies dominating these areas since they require completely different skillsets. At best a company can dominate 2 of these areas.

The various monopolies will offset each other and we won’t really have one company take over all of Publishing.

Will we have closed, walled gardens or free and open systems?

We will have closed, walled gardens.

1. Companies will want to have control and will be able to take control. 
2. Closed gardens are necessary to monetize. 
3. Authors and Publishers still control most of the quality content and they are not going to repeat the madness of newspapers (apart from random attempts to sell eBooks at $15).

Will readers still pay for books?

Yes.

• While there is the anarchic possibility that everything becomes open and unpoliced and books are free – it’s rather unlikely.
• Authors and Publishers have shown a remarkable ability to not get infected by the free virus.
• Readers have shown a remarkable ability to not expect or demand free books.

We will probably see a fall in book prices but not a devaluation to zero.

Its quite amusing to see that evil, walled gardens ensure books retain their value and good, drm-free, open systems increase the probability of total anarchy in Publishing.

What prices will books be at?

Somewhere between $4 and $10.

1. The lower bound is $4 because even with sales of books doubling we still need $4 to keep quality book making alive.  
2. The upped bound is $9.99 – For better or for worse it has been established as our first benchmark and it’s a nice, pretty number that a lot of people find reasonable.

There will be a secondary market of indie authors pushing free and $1 books. However, all established authors and several ‘on the verge’ authors will stick wtih $4 and higher – to be able to focus their energies on writing.

Will Authors be able to earn a decent living? What percentage?

Around 10%.

1. The competition is going to be brutal but the top 1% will earn more than we currently realize or dream of.
2. The next 9% are going to earn well – though much less than the top 1%.
3. The remaining 90% are going to struggle mightily.

It’d be interesting to compare this with what happens today and figure out whether eBooks and ePublishing are good for authors or not.

The one element that will be very different is that there will be almost no barriers to entry.

Will books have advertising?

Hopefully not.

As different authors and publishers try different strategies there will be some who embrace advertising - despite seeing the fate of newspaper publishers.

If we’re all lucky the attempts will fail miserably and eBooks won’t be devalued by greedy advertisers – in more ways than one.

Which companies have the best shot?

People are underestimating the advantage Amazon has due to its early lead, the strength of Sony, and most of all the impact that iPad Apps will have.  

1. eReaders – Amazon, Sony, Apple. B&N are just too weak at the moment.
2. eBooks – Amazon, Apple.
3. Platform – Amazon, Apple.
4. Starting Point – Google.

Google are a huge threat in ebooks if they can get eBook advertising to work.

Will Publishers still be in a position of power?

Yes – although not as strong as their current position.

1. Not all 6 of the big Publishers will be able to sabotage themselves.
2. 2 or 3 of them will evolve and start playing an enabler role – something like Venture Capitalists.
3. They’ll be able to get 20% and creative control from their authors.

Publisher published books will still dominate in paper and hardcover (60% or more). In eBooks they’ll probably have 40-50% of the market.

Will the platform companies become dominant?

Yes.

In parallel with the parts of Publishing built on Publishers will be the parts built on the Platforms.

Amazon, Apple and any eReader or eBook company that plays its cards right will be able to get an inordinate amount of power and control.

Will Crowd Intelligence take over?

In a few ways yes -

1. Network effects will be magnified. 
2. User reviews and recommendations will become ridiculously important. 

At the same time we will run into problems with the supposedly brilliant crowds -

1. The Crowds are susceptible to manipulation and fraud.  
2. Network effects can kill deserving authors and lift up undeserving ones.   
3. Organized groups will be able to promote their authors and agendas.

Overall, crowd intelligence will develop into a helpful tool as opposed to a grand solution for everything.

Who will readers turn to for recommendations?

In mostly random order -

1. Bestseller lists. 
2. Other readers’ reviews. 
3. Blogs. 
4. Friends.
5. Search.

Bestseller lists and Genre Bestseller lists will be unbelievably important. There will be huge amounts spent to get on these lists and to stay on these lists.

What will be the 10 biggest changes in 2010 through 2020?

In no particular order -

1. 50-50 split between paper and electronic books. 
2. eReaders grow to over 100 million units in circulation. 
3. 2 to 3 Platform Companies dominate – Apple and Amazon are the likeliest.
4. 2 to 3 of the Big Publishers survive and have the next most power (after platforms).
5. 25% more People read than now. People read 40% more with eReaders than they did without eReaders.
6. eBooks are priced between $4 and $10 with readers accepting these prices. 
7. Closed, walled gardens dominate and sustain eBooks (and Books).  
8. 1 to 2 companies dominate eBook sales – Amazon, Apple, and probably Google.
9. Top 1% of authors make over a million (or close) every year and next 9% of authors earn a very good living.
10. The core definition of books doesn’t change – color books, interactive books, video books and various other contraptions don’t kill or hurt books as we know them now.

10 years is a very long time and predicting over that time scale is irresponsible, foolish, and not recommended . That being said these are the 10 changes in Publishing and Books that have the highest probability of happening.