Retrevo has a post up claiming consumers are losing interest in the iPad. It’s extremely misleading.
Their main claim is that the number of people not interested in buying the iPad jumped from 26% to 52%.
The graphics are so misleading let’s list the numbers instead and then compare -
Before the iPad Announcement
Question: Have you heard about the new Apple Tablet that might be revealed in January?
- Yes, I think I would like to buy one. 3%.
- Yes, I’m interested but will wait and see what it looks like. 19%.
- No, but I’m interested in learning about it. 17%.
- No, and I’m not interested. 35%.
- Yes, but I’m not interested in buying one. 26%.
The answers are listed in decreasing order of likelihood to buy the iPad.
After the iPad Announcement
Question: Have you heard about the new Apple Tablet?
- Yes, I think I would like to buy one. 9%. That’s a tripling – a note for later.
- Yes, I’m interested but I need more information before I’d buy one. 21%. That category saw a slight jump too.
- No, and I’m not interested. 18%.
- Yes, but I’m not interested in buying one. 52%.
Retrevo have focused on the jump from 26% to 52%. That’s completely wrong.
Why the Retrevo Analysis is completely wrong
They should be looking at the last two questions together i.e. ‘No, and not interested’ and ‘Yes, and not interested’. That would show that the number has gone from 61% to 70%. Not as huge of a jump as only showing 26% to 52%.
On the flip side the number of people likely to get an iPad jumped from 3% to 9%. That’s a huge jump.
There’s a lot more that’s wrong with Retrevo’s surveys -
- The second survey uses a completely different group of people from those questioned in the first survey. How can we assume that opinions actually changed when it’s completely different people?
- The first survey uses 5 questions and the second uses 4. Surely that and the order the questions are listed in have an impact.
- The questions are skewed – the most positive is ‘I think I would like to buy one’. In general all the pro-iPad questions are ambivalent and the anti-iPad questions are very precise.
- The questions themselves would make respondents skew against the iPod (by introducing doubt and not providing enough options).
- It attempts to capture both knowledge about the iPad and inclination to buy the iPad in the same survey.
Both graphs are from a survey of ‘over a thousand users’.
Closing Thought
The number of people intending to get the iPad tripled to 9%.
The number of people inclined towards getting it (after more information) also increased and was at 21%.
If 30% of people, or for that matter even 9% of people, buy the iPad it will be a huge hit.
Filed under: iSlate Apple Slate Tagged: | bias, good analysis, lack thereof
While you’re right to point out a flaw in their analysis and execution of the survey, there are things wrong with your own.
1 + 2. Generalizability is not always a feature of random surveying, and I’d have to look at how exactly they did the survey taking and any analysis if any, it’s often not unreasonable. The wording they use “consumers lose interest” could definitely be changed, but it doesn’t seem a big issue. The real big issue is the loss of a question. We have no idea of the responder loading before versus after announcement and how it may have changed, but it is clear that of individuals who believe they possess enough information to make a decision, there are a great number who are uninterested.
3 + 4. What you said under 3 is true, but I believe 4 is linked to it, and 4 is wrong. People are more likely to pick an uncertain option that leaves room for a change in the decision if they don’t possess a lot of information than they would be to express a certainty. It’s much more likely that the positive responses are over-represented for that reason than the negative responses.
thanks for the comment.
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