Let’s start with a Kindle + iPad survey that’s drastically different from the ‘iPad will fail’ surveys of late.
27% of eReader owners regret not waiting for iPad (73% don’t?)
Electronista covers a survey by ChangeWave that paints the iPad as an eReader killer extraordinaire -
Of those who owned an e-reader as of February, 27 percent would have bought the Apple device instead. Less than half, 45 percent, would still have chosen what they did at the time.
Of the group that was planning to buy within the next three months, a high 40 percent expected to have an iPad in that period. Amazon’s Kindle trailed behind significantly at 28 percent,
It’s hard to believe a survey that claims 40% of people buying an eReader in the next 3 months will buy an iPad.
Also interesting was that Reading eBooks was the third most likely use for the iPad (37% of people) with surfing the Internet (68%) and checking email (44%) first and second.
Will the iPad really kill eReaders?
The prospective eReader owners surveyed had a rather interesting answer for what eReader they would buy -
- 40% said iPad.
- 28% said Kindle.
- 6% said B&N.
- 1% said Sony Reader.
- 25% presumably will buy some as yet unknown reading device.
1% of prospective eReader owners want to buy the $299 Sony Reader Touch or $199 Sony Reader Pocket Edition and 40% want to buy the $499 iPad?
That doesn’t sound right at all. In fact, 40% choosing a $499 device sounds wrong all by itself.
Perhaps what the survey inadvertently does is club together iPad buyers and eReader buyers and then arrive at the 40% figure. That would make a lot of sense. If the previous questions set up survey respondents to think of the iPad as an eReader then it clubbed together people buying an iPad for any reason with people buying a device for reading.
Amazon pursues UK literary agents
The Bookseller reports that in the UK Amazon is speaking to book agents -
UK literary agents and authors have been approached directly to sell e-book rights to Amazon as it builds its Kindle e-book arsenal …
US e-book publishers including Rosetta Books are also approaching UK agents and authors to buy backlist e-book rights, with Rosetta favouring an exclusive Amazon deal as part of the package.
So both Amazon and Rosetta Books are lining up Kindle exclusive deals. That’s rather interesting.
It would make sense for Amazon to approach literary agents and authors directly. Apple is in bed with Publishers plus Publishers are out to kill eBooks and eReaders – that only leaves authors and their agents.
How long before we start seeing tons of eBook signings by eReader companies?
Let’s face it – Publishers are just trying to kill eBooks. They aren’t going to attempt to actually sell eBooks – they’ll just price them too high or put too many restrictions and kill all sales. With books in the back-list it’s even more ridiculous – Not only are Publishers not really trying to sell them, they also want 75% of the sales for doing next to nothing.
Authors might as well sell their physical book rights to a Publisher and their eBook rights to Amazon or Barnes & Noble. This makes a ton of sense for established authors and authors with any sort of dedicated fan base. Amazon gives you 70% of sales and they also give you a great marketplace – customers of good intent, no resale, sharing only between family members, and all the details are taken care of.
April 3rd – iPad Release Date
The big news is that the Apple iPad release date has been set for April 3rd (for US) with UK getting the iPad at the end of April. Apple will start accepting preorders starting March 12th. Note that this is for the WiFi model.
Digits Blog of the Wall Street Journal covers what the iPad release means for Apple -
Mobile-Internet analyst Greg Sterling has a good post looking at some very preliminary numbers that basically indicate nobody knows yet what is going to happen.
Nobody knows yet what is going to happen is the most accurate prediction so far.
The Bits blog make fun of Apple calling the iPad magical and revolutionary. It is rather strange to call your own product magical.
What will happen in April? What about the rest of the year?
We have the survey that claims 40% of people buying eReaders will buy the iPad. We have other surveys claiming very few people will buy the iPad. It’s amazing that surveys of a few thousand people are claiming they can predict the future.
Digits Blog and Greg Sterling might have the best opinion – no one knows yet what is going to happen.
In a month we will get a good idea and by the end of the year we’ll know whether Apple will do to eReaders what it did to mp3 players.
In between the release of the iPad and the Christmas season we’ll definitely see Kindle 3, the new Sony Reader, and the Kindle App Store. We might also see color screen eReaders and a new Nook.
The eReader Wars of 2010 are just starting.
Filed under: iSlate Apple Slate Tagged: | balanced predictions, lack thereof
Sometimes I didnt get the discussion “ereader or tablet”; actually there are so many comparison ’cause everyone things they’d be compared.
To me the arguments resemble a discussion on “car or motorcycles”; the first being general purpose, having more costs and less efficiency; the second being one purpose but more efficient.
The true is that lots of people had a car AND a motorcycle; and they use them depending on the situation. Basically they just wanna move from a point A to a point B and they can decide how to do it.
And there is enough market for both..
My guesses:
1) The iPad will sell to those looking to read books… along with internet use and games.
2) The iPad will sell poorly to serious readers.
3) Most iPad readers (book purchasers) will be distracted by other time-wasters.
4) The mainstream blogs will be “very surprised” that iPad does poorly for book sales in year one.
5) The mainstream blogs will be very surprised that most of the books purchased in the iPad come from Amazon, and not from iBooks.