This seems like a stupid/unfair question – especially if you’re waiting to get Kindle for Android for your phone/device. However, consider this report from The Next Web that claims 98.9% of Android Market downloads are Free -
FADE claim that an estimated eight million Android users downloaded 289 million apps, of which 98.9% were free to download.
FADE tracked the addition of 1,200 gaming title to the Android Market in the first two months of 2010, highlighting that the average Android user is spending just 6.1 cents on Android games and $0.50 on all other applications.
This, when compared with an iPhone users estimated $1 gaming spend and $5 spend on all other apps, accentuates the gulf in revenues between the two smartphone platforms.
The first reason that Kindle might not be a good fit for Android is intent.
Channels of Good Intent vs Channels of Bad Intent
When we say good and bad intent we mean - people are either ready to pay for content and apps or they’re not.
Let’s look at the different channels the Kindle is on -
- The Kindle itself – No doubt about it being a good channel as people are buying $10 ebooks.
- The iPhone – Again, we know from data (such as the data above) that the iPhone is a channel of good intent. People buy apps and music and (supposedly) books.
- The PC – People are paying for anti-virus software and for Windows and there is a precedent of paying for software.
- Blackberries – A lot of people pay for Blackberry’s email services and the large number of business users also leads to good intent.
Does the Android fit in? Will Android users have good intent?
FADE, the source of the above report highlighting poor Android intent, think so -
FADE LLC does not believe that the fault lies on the quality, or depth of applications, but on 4 major factors:
• Payment UI
• Android 1.5 in use on ~30% of available handsets
• Limited number of paid countries
• Inability to download applications to SD cards
On the opposite end of the spectrum, free applications are doing remarkably well, as 98.9% of all applications downloaded are free apps.
That’s not a very convincing argument.
It’s hard to believe that the difference between 6 cents a month on gaming on Android and $1 a month on gaming on the iPhone is completely due to harder payments on Android. It must be one amazingly bad payment process. Either that or Android users just don’t have good intent i.e. they aren’t inclined to pay for content and apps.
Is there Profit to be made on Android?
The second big reason Kindle might not be a good fit for Android is profitability.
FADE’s report contrasts spending on the iPhone and on the Android -
- iPhone games – $1 a month per user. Android games – 6 cents a month per user.
- iPhone other apps – $5 a month per user. Android other apps – 50 cents a month per user.
That’s 10 times more spending by iPhone users.
It might be really difficult to get Android users to pay for $10 Kindle Books when they spend an average of 56 cents a month on all apps.
It gets worse.
Consider sales for the top 5 Android paid games -
Top 10 games (data from January 4th 2010 through February 28th, 2010) sorted by revenue
1. Robo Defense by Lupis Labs – 24,000 downloads ($2.99)
2.2. SNesoid by yongzh – 11,000 downloads ($3.98)
3. Nesoid by yongzh – 10,000 downloads ($3.49)
4. Gameboid by yongzh – 9,000 downloads ($3.99)
5. Fishin’ 2 Go (FULL) by CyxB – 16,000 downloads ($2.25)
There are two things to note here -
- The top paid Android game got 24,000 downloads in 1.75 months. The top paid iPhone game gets that many downloads in 1-2 days.
- The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th top paid apps are emulators that let you play games from the classic gaming platforms for free.
There couldn’t be a worse indictment of a platform than the fact that 3 of the top 4 paid apps are emulators.
Can we expect Kindle for Android to buck the trend?
If Android users really do spend an average of 56 cents a month on apps then that translates into the equivalent of a $9.99 book every 18 months.
How many books are they going to buy?
Kindle for Android has the chance to be the first app that gets Android users to open up their wallets. If Android users start buying even 1 book every 3 months their spending per month would skyrocket from 56 cents a month to $3.89 a month. That’s a 594% increase.
Hypothetically, Kindle for Android could take off and increase the amount of revenue Android apps generate 594%. It’s also possible that Kindle for Android is a success to a lesser degree. If it sees any sort of success then the Android apologists would have been proven right – That it’s the faulty payment process that’s responsible for the low spending on Android.
Just realized the twist in the tale - Amazon are not going to reveal ebook sales on Android. We might find out if Kindle for Android is a hit but Amazon are unlikely to disclose the amount of revenue generated.
Filed under: eBook Reader Devices Tagged: | channel of good intent
I am unclear about your concern. First, if Amazon releases an app for Android it will be free. All past Kindle apps have been free. So that fits with the android data that you showed. Second, if there are purchases, they won’t be through the Android marketplace, they will be on the amazon site, or directly in the kindle app. So there won’t be growth in the Android marketplace. Third, Amazon can increase value even if they never sell a book directly on Android because the Android app will act as an encouragement for Android users to explore the ebook world through Amazon. This can lead to future sales of Kindles or at least books. How expensive can it be to make an Android app. $1000? $10,000. Either way, the advertising for Kindle is well worth it. I can’t think of any downsides for Amazon.
It’s good for Amazon. However, it might not be a good fit in terms of Android users’ willingness to pay for books.
This doesn’t take into account one of the major differences between the iTunes app store, and the Android Marketplace. Apples screens the content. The Android market is full of alpha quality content. This android content just isn’t worth paying for. And, Android users get to cancel their purchases after they try.
I cannot help but think that if iPhone users could request a refund, they would.
I’d also be curious to differentiate the downloads from the installs that last more than a day.
It’s hard to get the whole picture. I know I spend about $30 a month on Android apps. So while this article speaks to average intent, how big is the portion of the Android user base that does show good intent?
I think the comparison itself is misguided. You’re comparing applications and games, which need to be functional, to the passive entertainment of books. They are entirely different markets.
Use my wife as an example. She probably would never purchase a large number of apps or games for her droid. But books? She purchased 80 ebooks in the past year. A reader by Amazon or B&N would only tap into that market.
Games are functional and books are passive entertainment?
Yes, if you hold that worldview my comparison itself is flawed and also – you are at the wrong blog.
Uhm, yes. Games are programs that need to work, ie, be functional. Books aren’t active, they are passive. That is the common view. So if you’re redefining terms to suit your narrow view thats your prerogative. As for the wrong blog, if you don’t want comments, turn them off?
Here are my definitions –
Books are conversations with the smartest men and women of the ages. They make readers smarter and let readers exercise their imagination.
Games used to be masterpieces – when we had Planescape Torment and the occassional FPS that was a work of art. Now they’ve devolved into ‘how best can you manipulate people’ atrocities like MMORPGs and casual games with virtual gifts.
Just because you have the occassional BioShock doesn’t mean games aren’t going the way of manipulative, artless, gaming theory fueled Matrix style unreality.