Kindle Review – Kindle Fire Review, Kindle 4 Review

It’s an interesting couple of days – The Agency Model arrived yesterday and it threatens to kill ebooks. The iPad arrives tomorrow and it (along with higher priced ebooks) threatens to kill eReaders.

Perhaps the more important thing than the fate of eReaders and eBooks is the fate of books and reading.

Reasons eReaders and eBooks surviving could be good for reading

Here are some of the things eReaders and eBooks are doing -

1. Creating a channel of good intent. People who love books and are willing to pay for them.
2. Bringing together like-minded people. 
3. Getting people to read more and buy more books. 
4. Providing new technology to make reading better (in some ways).
5. Reducing the price of new book releases. 
6. Democratizing Publishing by letting anyone publish books.
7. Making things very, very convenient. 
8. Creating interest in reading and books.
9. Getting companies to invest in reading related technology.
10. Allowing for new features like searching books, reading across devices, and text to speech.
11. Letting family members all read the same book simultaneously.
12. Authors being able to get as much as 70%.
13. Growing fast. 

Here are some of the things eReaders and eBooks are not doing -

1. Growing really, really fast. 
2. Keeping prices high enough for Publishers.
3. Avoiding infinite competition amongst authors.
4. Preventing piracy. 
5. Allowing lending and sharing and social features.
6. Evolving fast enough (talking about ereaders here, don’t know if ebooks need to evolve).
7. Maintaining the polish of books – there are errors, bad formatting, and missing cover images.
8. Making up for the sensory loss and the aesthetic loss – eBooks have little uniqueness and not much character.
9. Scaling up fast enough.

Despite the weaknesses it’s hard to argue against a class of devices that made reading hot again and got companies from Apple to BridgeStone to Asus all interesting in reading.

Similarly, it’s hard to argue with ebooks when they helped open up the doors of Publishing to everyone and added features that we now take for granted (text to speech, searching, syncing).

Reasons the death of eReaders and eBooks might be good for reading

There are some pretty important positive things that might happen if eReaders and eBooks die -

1. We might avoid the race to the bottom that newspaper content and content on the Internet is facing. 
2. Sustainable prices – so that authors and publishers can continue their alleged hand to mouth existence.
3. Publishers get to keep control – This might be better than the anarchy if Publishers lose control.
4. Physical Books are no longer under threat of extinction (if the claims of them being under threat are true).
5. People in Publishing don’t have to let go of what they’ve gotten used to over the last couple hundred years. They get to avoid the pain of learning new things .
6. We don’t have to face change and the unknown. For some people this might be the biggest plus.

There are also some pretty big negative things that might happen -

1. Books can’t keep pace with other entertainment and slip behind.  
2. Companies stop investing in reading technology as they feel the content creators will keep killing initiatives. At the minimum it’ll be 5 years before someone tries again.
3. We go back to a world where authors get 8-15% and are completely at the mercy of Publishers. 
4. We go back to higher prices.  
5. The Publisher cartel is back in control.

You know what – It’s really difficult to come up with reasons that the death of eReaders and eBooks would be good for reading. Perhaps some Publishers can chime in.

Could multi-purpose devices be more important to reading?

It is a possibility that phones and other multi-purpose devices that let people read become very important for reading and books. We haven’t seen it happen before. However, it’s a possibility.

The argument would basically be – 40 million people with the option to read books is more important than 4 million with a device dedicated to reading. Because those 40 million people have to just read once in a while to tally up more reading than the 4 million dedicated readers.

There isn’t really an answer to that – Once people have some hard evidence it would be good to check on figures and analyze.

Reasons an ongoing struggle might be good for reading

Interestingly, it’s the third scenario that presents the most promise.

If we take this bold new world of eReaders and eBooks and anarchy and anyone being able to publish and make it compete with the old structured model of physical books and gatekeepers that decide what readers should get to see we force both systems to be more efficient.

Things that eReaders and eBooks would have to do to compete with Publishers

1. Screen for quality and bubble up the highest quality ebooks to the top. 
2. Improve on the reading pleasure per dollar spent. Publishers would have to do this too.
3. Figure out newer and newer ways to improve the user experience and make things more and more convenient.
4. Push technology to provide more and more of the benefits of books i.e. better note-taking, color, more character, better screen contrast, and more durability.
5. Add on more killer features – perhaps through app stores, perhaps through eReader companies themselves.
6. Leverage network effects and social features to improve the user experience and offer better book recommendations and reviews. 
7. Offer readers more and more of a share to make sure authors can earn the same (or more) from ebooks as they would from physical books.
8. Get eReaders into the hands of more and more users and show them that it’s just like reading a book.
9. Reach kids when they’re young and get them used to reading and to love books (as opposed to hating books and reading).

Things Publishers would have to do to compete with eReaders and eBooks

1. Cut down on prices by being more efficient.
2. Take smarter risks and more intelligent decisions and stop using the big hits to fund lots of little lossmakers.
3. Give authors a better deal.
4. Treat authors better and give more of them a chance.
5. Give readers a better deal.
6. Focus on their strengths and ramp up the quality of their published books.
7. Bring in technology and improved ways of doing things.
8. Start creating distribution channels to match eReaders on price and convenience.
9. Start building customer loyalty and better relationships.
10. Be proactive.

The iPad has delayed the inevitable eReader vs Publisher War

The arrival of the iPad let Publishers take the easy way out and usher in the Agency Model. That saves them from having to innovate and cut costs.

It is, however, simply delaying the inevitable.

1. Random House have opted to shun the Agency Model.
2. As have some smaller publishers.
3. There are lots of hungry independent authors.
4. Most books are available free at pirate sites. By forcing higher prices Publishers are giving readers an incentive to pirate.
5. Users have the $9.99 price and the 2 years of relative freedom anchored in their minds.

There are a lot of factors working against the 5 Big Publishers pushing the Agency Model. However, it isn’t enough for the Agency Model to work – Publishers want their control back.

Here’s what needs to happen for Publishers to pull off their ‘competition leads to higher prices and re-establishment of our control’ magic trick -

1. Either the iPad or higher prices kill dedicated eReaders.
2. The existing 5 million or so eReader owners give up on eReaders.
3. Users don’t get upset and don’t boycott the Agency Model Publishers.
4. People decide that if ebooks are expensive we must switch to physical books.
5. Amazon loses its lead in ebook sales. Note that if people actually read a lot on the iPhone and on multi-purpose devices (as some experts claim they do) this might not happen.

Publishers have delayed things long enough that it’s very, very difficult for the Agency Model to work. They’re implementing a model well after eReaders and eBooks have gained critical mass.

The iPad is perfectly suited for Publishers – People who buy a device with games and movies and music and all sorts of apps are not going to read as much as people with dedicated eReaders. Which means the growth of ebooks slows down and perhaps even stalls. Publishers get back all their control.

Of course, it might not be the best thing for reading and books - Publishers would be too happy enjoying their arcane ways of doing things and their gatekeeper status to care.

Filed under: thoughts Tagged: | future of books, future of reading