James McQuivey has an impressively impartial article on Kindle vs iPad at Paid Content. Here is the main thing he says -
Round 1 goes to Apple.
if Amazon comes out swinging, Round 2 will go to Amazon
… for Round 3 and beyond, Amazon’s success will depend on it introducing a full-color, full-media, touch device that I have presumptuously nicknamed the Kindle Flame
He lists two good reasons why Amazon can win round 2 -
- Amazon has the bookstore and the customer reviews and the understanding of customer behavior.
- iPad buyers can choose Kindle for iPad and they will.
The case for a separate, new Kindle
The really compelling part of this article is where he talks about Amazon introducing a Super Kindle -
Go head to head with Apple on a media tablet.
Make content even more central to its device than Apple has.
Get TV programming on the device.
Innovate on the partner side.
This strategy (releasing a media tablet) makes sense for a lot of reasons.
A Super Kindle makes the Kindle Stronger
Currently the argument is getting framed as Kindle vs iPad and Kindle vs Multi-Purpose Devices. That’s not a good argument because these are completely different types of devices. Multi-purpose devices are trying to attack the eReader market and Amazon by confusing the definition of what an eReader is.
By releasing a SuperKindle Amazon can do two things -
- Distinguish between dedicated eReaders and multi-purpose devices.
- Attack its enemies with a device better suited for competing against their multi-purpose devices.
Do you want to do more than read? There’s a Super Kindle for that.
Kindle for reading and Super Kindle for doing everything, including reading.
Releasing a different product line ensures the Kindle stays focused on reading
Perhaps the biggest benefit to the Kindle will be that it can stay focused on reading and not have to worry about doing other things. It can focus on what it started as – a dedicated reading device.
There are no downsides to the Super Kindle
Here are some of the potential downsides analysts will talk about -
- It confuses uses. No, it doesn’t – users aren’t stupid.
- It cannibalizes the Kindle. Better that it cannibalizes the Kindle than any other multi-purpose device.
- Amazon has no hardware expertise. Yes, we saw how that led to zero sales of the Kindle.
- Amazon will lose focus. Amazon does cloud services, retail, kindle, and a lot more – a super kindle fits right in.
- Amazon could never compete with Apple. Of course not – it’s not competing with Apple, it’s competing with the Press. It’s a war of perception.
There are three main possibilities -
- The Super Kindle fails miserably. It will still be a success for Amazon because it’ll let the Kindle compete with eReaders and not multi-purpose devices.
- The Super Kindle is a big success. The Universe will end because obviously no company could ever beat Apple (we’re pretending Microsoft doesn’t exist).
- The Super Kindle is a moderate success. Every customer is a direct connection to Amazon – lots of upside.
Even if it fails the Super Kindle will create a huge distinction between multi-purpose devices and dedicated eReaders. If it succeeds the Super Kindle will become a huge platform for Amazon – a channel that is free of the vagaries of the Internet and free of all the gatekeepers.
Amazon has all the content and parts in place
The amount of effort needed to launch and sustain a Super Kindle is much less than people realize -
- Amazon already sells digital music and digital movies and games and some TV shows and digital books.
- It already has the AT&T part hammered out.
- It has its Cloud and Whispernet services working.
- It has the buying part and credit card part sorted out.
- Customers trust it and it’s great with customer service.
- With the Kindle it knows how to build, distribute, and service hardware.
- It has an excellent distribution network – both physically and on the Internet.
That leaves designing, creating, and launching the Super Kindle.
Amazon is probably already working on Super Kindle
Lab 126 started off saying ‘they design all sorts of devices’ – Now they show only the Kindle. However, they have 71 open positions and they’re patenting things like the Kindle Electronic Pen.
Do we really think that a company that started off selling books online and then expanded into selling everything from kitchen sinks to car parts will look at the success of the Kindle (a success the analysts and press still pretend hasn’t happened) and stop at that?
We can sell books. Let’s sell everything else.
We can create a great infrastructure for ourselves. Let’s sell cloud services for everyone else.
We can sell the Kindle. Great – Should we expand? No, we shouldn’t really make any more devices because Apple and the Press would get upset.
2010 or 2011 is going to see Amazon surprise everyone with a product that does more than just read – Except it won’t pretend to be an eReader and try to confuse users. It’ll just do what it says and say what it does and take on multi-purpose devices head-on.
Taking on multi-purpose devices is best done with a device built for the task and Amazon knows this – it has shown that it’s usually ahead of the curve (Amazon.com for online retailing, cloud services, the Kindle and Whispernet for electronic books) and you can bet it has a few surprises in store for 2010 and 2011.
Filed under: kindle 4 Tagged: | kindle tablet, super kindle
On point 2) of the analysts opinions, surely it’s better if the Super Kindle cannibalizes *other* devices, no?
If it cannibalizes (i.e. takes market share from) the regular Kindle, Amazon would be fighting itself, mostly…
Just meant that if multi-purpose devices really do eat up 10% to 20% of Kindle sales it might as well be an Amazon Tablet.
A Super kindle would mostly get sales of people looking for tablets. However, some Kindle sales would be replaced by super kindle sales too.
I have to say, I agree with the first of your proposed criticisms: it confuses users.
Kindle is the brand name for dedicated e-readers utilizing easy to read e-ink technology. As it is, Amazon is diluting their brand by extending it via Kindle aps on all manner of computer device. Now you’re arguing they should release their own tablet computer and call it a Kindle as well.
Amazon should instead just focus on making a better next-generation Kindle.
I’m afraid we are going to have to disagree on this one. Frankly I find McQuivey to be yet another ‘analyst’ of the kind that is becoming drearily familiar.
For one he gives no actual reasons why either Sony or Google would partner with Amazon.Why would they when both seem intent on bringing their own iPad challengers to market? HP is manufacturing one, so is Samsung, & Asus is birthing twins. Frankly everybody & their uncle is rushing to market.
Thus Apple will be only one of Amazon’s competitors. In the Darwinian jungle that is going to be the tablet market what will differentiate Amazon from the rest? Not offering ebooks does not seem like much of a selling point. Where would the apps come from? Then there is the not inconsiderable cost of getting such a device to market.
Nor does Steve Jobs seem like the kind that would tolerate a cuckoo in his app garden – not from such a frontal challenger. Count on the Kindle iPad app becoming an endangered species if this Amazon tablet appears.
One could pile on more negatives but why bother? There just does not seem to be enough upside in this picture.
Unlike some analysts I’ll admit that this is all pure opinion though!