Are eBooks and eReaders really in danger?

Consider what the Press and people who don’t read have been predicting -

  1. When the Kindle first came out (end 2007) – No one’s going to buy Kindles. No one reads any more. People can just read on their PCs. $399 is too expensive.
  2. In mid 2009 – No one’s buying Kindles and that’s why Amazon hasn’t released numbers. People will just read on their iPhones. $299 is too expensive.
  3. Right Now – No one’s going to buy Kindles any more. Amazon probably have sold less than a million. People are going to read on the iPad. $259 is too expensive.

No matter how circumstances change non-readers find something to fill the blanks in their standard anti-Kindle rhetoric.

The Enemies of eReaders and eBooks are the same since 2007

The big, huge threats are exactly the same things that failed to destroy ebooks and eReaders in 2008 and 2009 -

  1. Publishers – They are trying desperately to kill eBooks and keep failing. The only danger they would present to eBooks is if they started trying to help. 
  2. The Press – Even after 2.5 years of criticizing the Kindle the Press still can’t do simple things like actually get an eReader and read a book on it before airing their ignorance. 
  3. People who don’t read – If you don’t read then you aren’t really contributing in any way. More importantly, you should not really care.
  4. Devices that aren’t dedicated to reading – iPad is just as good and just as bad as the iPhone for reading. The larger size negates the advantage of the larger screen. Yet 1 million iPads are supposed to do what 50 million plus iPhones couldn’t. 
  5. People who hate readers and eReaders – No one reads any more except for the ones who sustain a $23.8 billion business. The haters pretend the market doesn’t exist but it does.

All these threats were very real and perhaps even life-threatening for eReaders and eBooks in 2008. By 2009 they were mostly impotent. Now they are a joke.

We are past the eBook inflection point

The genie isn’t going back in the bottle -

  1. Readers now know that $9.99 is possible.
  2. Authors have tasted blood – 50% and 70% royalties are hard to resist or forget.
  3. 5 out of the 6 Big Publishers are under the Agency Model. However, everyone else (almost everyone else) isn’t.
  4. There are somewhere around 5 to 6 million eReaders in circulation (it’s entirely up to you whether you believe someone who’s been running an eReader blog for 2.25 years or some random blogger who takes 5 minutes and a bunch of preconceptions).
  5. There are already lots of ebooks being sold.

There’s no way to kill off eBooks and eReaders and pretend they never happened.

The Agency Model isn’t really a threat

The fear that Publishers will use the Agency Model to slow down or kill the growth of ebooks is misplaced. We are talking about Publishers – the same Publishers that waste $5 to $7 per book on returns and postage and shipping.

Does anyone think they would be able to figure out the ebook inflection point or prevent it?

They are doing their typical ‘old, slow business realizes way too late and fights customers and shows itself to be corrupt and inefficient’ routine.

In fact, the Agency Model being introduced is the surest sign that we’re beyond the point of no return.

Multi-purpose devices are not dangerous

It’s the same pattern again and again and again.

This device isn’t great for reading. However, you can bake a cake with it. That means people who love to read will choose it instead. That means dedicated eReaders are going to die because being able to bake is what’s really important for chefs.

Even arguments like that aren’t as stupid as what regularly gets written these days.

85 million iPhones and iPod Touches couldn’t kill eReaders. The hundreds of millions of PCs couldn’t kill eReaders. Yet every new device gets anointed eReader killer.

The Press are behaving like a bunch of monkeys

Here are the things the Press regularly do -

  1. Claim the iPad can be read in bright sunlight (or forget to mention reading outside).
  2. Claim the Kindle is a Tablet and thus in competition with Tablets.
  3. Claim that eInk has no benefits over LCDs.
  4. Label the iPad an eReader.
  5. Keep comparing apples with oranges.

One mention from Oprah has had more impact on eReaders than all the articles the Press have written. Still, the Press are under the grand delusion that they can stem the growth of eReaders by writing painfully inaccurate articles.

Kindle haters and People who don’t read have no power

It’s not like they can threaten us that they will stop reading – they already don’t read. They don’t buy eReaders either – the party line is that they’re waiting for prices to drop to $50.

They seem inordinately concerned about what all of us readers and Kindle owners are doing. Too bad the magical and revolutionary devices from Apple don’t free you from the inclination to poke your nose in other people’s business.

The arguments from non-readers are full of unintentional comedy -

Well, we don’t really read. We aren’t going to pay for anything or buy anything either.

However, we do think that we know a lot about reading. The secret is to create a device that isn’t very good for reading. That way you can keep yourself open to possibilities like games and movies and other stuff.

Then when people see how good your device is for playing games they’ll think – That device isn’t good for reading so it’s the perfect choice for someone like me who loves to read.

People who read books are happy to read books on their eReaders and leave the multi-taskers and LCD compatibles alone. However, non-readers can’t bear to see someone do something as terrible as read. If only all of us readers knew the joys of YouTube and spending money on making Steve Jobs rich.

Dear Non-Readers, we don’t really appreciate other people telling us what’s good for us.

Is it too much to ask – That people who care not a whit about books stay away and leave readers and eReaders alone.

6 Responses

  1. Downloaded books I knew I wanted to buy when I got my Kindle for Xmas. Now I got a giftcard so was going to buy ten books but several that were $9.99 when I saved them are now over $9.99 so I did not buy them. Only bought ones that are $9.99 or lower. Love my Kindle. Do not want an ipad.

  2. wnloaded books I knew I wanted to buy when I got my Kindle for Xmas. Now I got a giftcard so was going to buy ten books but several that were $9.99 when I saved them are now over $9.99 so I did not buy them. Only bought ones that are $9.99 or lower. Love my Kindle. Do not want an ipad.

  3. “People who read books are happy to read books on their eReaders and leave the multi-taskers and LCD compatibles alone.”

    People who read books have different preferences. Some have difficulty reading on LCD screens and would prefer dedicated ereaders while others have no such difficulty and can enjoy what they read without excessive focus on the medium through which they are reading.

    I enjoy reading on my iPod Touch, and my sister enjoys reading on her laptop. There is a market for both dedicated ereaders and multi-use devices among people who read. There is no need to imply that real readers don’t read on LCD screens. The iPad is not going to kill the Kindle; neither is the Kindle going to kill the iPad or other multi-purpose devices.

    • No – the only thing I’m saying, and saying it explicitly is that anyone who claims that a device dedicated to reading is a waste is not a real reader.

  4. To be fair, $400 -was- too much for the Kindle, especially the first-gen Kindle, which had some design flaws to be hammered out.

    Didn’t stop early adopters, of course.

  5. [...] Are E-books and E-readers Really in Danger? The iPad is being billed as the Kindle-killer by some. Will this happen? [...]

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