Kindle Review – Kindle Fire Review, Kindle 4 Review

While there’s a lot of truth to the notion that getting things started is critical, and we are constantly reminded of it i.e.

1. Starting is Half the Battle.
2. Well Begun is Half Done.

There don’t seem to be any pithy quotes about how difficult it is to finish things off and finish them off well.

How do we define the last 10%?

The stage at which you hit a point of ‘almost done’ or ’90% done’ is when you’re facing the last 10%.

The last 10% is the gap between almost done and ready to be shipped out to paying customers. 

There are a lot of aspects to this -

1. You tie up all loose ends (or most of them). 
2. Fix all typos and bugs and mistakes (at least the important ones). 
3. You polish up things.
4. You package everything together in a coherent package.
5. You figure out how to sell it i.e. your story. If you’ve already done this you refine it and make sure the product matches the story.

The last 10% is the gap between the creator thinking – it’s done (or it’s almost done) – and the product being ready for paying customers.

A short note on Starting is Half the Battle

There’s this strange duality -

1. In some ways Starting is 100% of the battle. If you get started you go from 0% chance of success to a very high chance of success. Most people, even when they’re in a battle, don’t ever get started. They’re always uncommitted and figuring out a way to justify failure instead of focusing on success. 
2. In some ways Starting means nothing. All it means is that you’re now in the battle and there’s 100% in front of you – The first 90% and the last 10% which will probably be more than the first 90%.

Before you actually get started - Starting is everything. That’s why sayings like Well Begun is Half Done make so much sense. They get you motivated to get started.

However, the instant you get started it’s all about finishing and winning. And at that point starting means nothing – you have all 100% in front of you.

Which brings us to eReaders and eBooks.

The last 10% for eReaders

Consider what eReaders have done so far (mostly Kindle and Sony Reader, with Nook helping out a bit in the end) -

1. Sold millions of units – including millions of units of the leading eReader alone.  
2. Sold out the past three holiday seasons – including 2 of the 3 top brands selling out last holiday season. 
3. Validated the niche and gotten 50 or more companies to jump in. 
4. Gotten Publishers scared enough to attempt to sabotage eReaders and eBooks.  
5. Made reading sexy again.

There’s a paradox here – eReaders are considered unsexy and uncool and yet they’ve made reading sexy again and they’ve made the eReader market sexy and tempting.

The last 10% for eReaders is to survive this last wave of people who are anti-reading

Here are the things that make up the last 10% for eReaders -

1. A jump to tens of millions of units sold a year. 
2. A huge jump in technology to cement their position as the best reading devices. 
3. Establish that a device dedicated to reading is better for reading than a do-everything device. 
4. Fight off the Press and non-readers’ attempts to devalue eReaders and reading.
5. Deliver even more value for people who read.

If eReaders can do this they will firmly establish themselves as an important and huge market and keep growing.

The Last 10% for eBooks

eBooks have done pretty well themselves -

1. Cut the price for new books from hardcover prices to $9.99.
2. Changed the concept of convenience when it comes to books – 60 second downloads, stores open any time, browsing from anywhere.
3. Turned every book into one where users can choose font sizes, line spacing and whether to read them or hear them.
4. Gotten us into the Agency Model and the Fight for $9.99.
5. Scared Publishers into revealing their apathy and downright hostility towards readers.  
6. Given readers a direct channel to authors - mostly through the Kindle Store. 
7. Helped lots of authors realize they don’t have to waste years trying to appease the gatekeepers.  

eBooks have so completely changed publishing that the product creators have been forced to reveal themselves as anti-customer. Think about that – even the oil companies pretend to be environment friendly. Yet we have Publishers who are straight out attacking customers with ebook release delays and the Agency Model.

The Last 10% for eBooks is beating the Agency Model

It really is that simple.  

If we can let go of our own personal reasons for buying Agency Model priced books – an inability to wait, the tragedy of the commons, a desire to be anti-mainstream, whatever it is – and boycott the Agency Model, it crashes.  

1. Once the Agency Model crashes everyone has to go with $9.99 books.  
2. Publishers lose their last hope of keeping their stranglehold over Publishing.
3. Publishing gets democratized.
4. $9.99 prices lead to a lot more sales.
5. Hardcover and paperback prices have to come down to compete.
6. More and more people read.
7. People read more and more.

If we could take people a few years into the future and show them everything they would get from a $9.99 world none of them would touch a book over $9.99. Unfortunately our inability to delay gratification and our susceptibility to fall for Publishers’ emotional blackmail means the Agency Model has a chance.  

The inflection point is closer than we realize

Publishers claim ebooks make up 3% to 5% of sales. However, most eReader sales have happened in the last 6 months, we no have more and more devices being used for reading, and Publishers don’t have any idea of public domain reading and reading of independent books.

If we were to accurately measure book and ebook sales in the last 3 months - eBooks would probably account for 10% or more of sales (in value, not units) and an even larger percentage of actual reading (thanks to public domain books).

The inflection point is between 15% and 25%. At that point ebooks break down Publishers’ business model completely.

1. Publishers are pretty inefficient and if eBooks get to 15% or more they won’t be able to recover.
2. Publishers are pretty slow. If they started the Agency Model to stop the inflection point it means the inflection point has either already come or is just a few months away.
3. The extent of the measures (a 50% price increase) indicate just how desperate Publishers are.
4. The Agency Model basically depends on iPad killing eReaders which is not happening.
5. This is Publishers Plan C.  The first few things they tried - not release ebooks, delay ebook release dates – didn’t work. They don’t have many options left.

Readers just have to stick to their guns for another 6-12 months and the Agency Model will be dead. 

When that happens we get true democratization. Here are some words from J. A. Konrath who just signed a deal with Amazon Encore -

We’re on the precipice of a revolution in the publishing industry. And there will be a clear-cut winner in this revolution.

The winner will be the group that deserves it the most: the readers.

Together, Amazon and I are giving readers what they want–inexpensive, professional ebooks.

He’s right – we’re on the precipice. I hope people do what makes them happy and also hope that, if possible, they boycott the Agency Model and the Agency Model publishers.

Filed under: Reality Tagged: | fight for $9.99, last 10%