First, let’s start by identifying things that have been (and still are) really, really important for the growth of eReaders and eBooks -
- eInk – If we didn’t have a screen which reads like a book people wouldn’t ever switch.
- 60 second wireless downloads – No one ever seems to appreciate how much of a factor this is and how much easier it makes it to get a book (or for that matter to get it instantly).
- Changeable Font Sizes and Text to Speech – This brings a lot of people into the fold of readers and expands the market for books. When’s the last time that the book market actually expanded?
- Anyone can publish – Any author can self-publish their books and reach readers directly. Any author can use cheap and free books to compete against the big Publishing Houses. It’s an almost level playing field.
- Reading across platforms, synchronizing across platforms, and the Cloud - You can take your book, your highlights, your notes, and your library with you everywhere. You can read almost any time you want, on almost any device you want (well, that’s an exaggeration though we’re getting there).
- Book Availability – For the first time we have a lot of books available in digital format. It’s easy to focus on the dozen or so Authors that you want in digital format who are missing – However, thousands of top authors are now available.
- $9.99 eBooks – This is vastly underestimated in its importance and in the impact it had. $9.99 ebooks gave readers both a financial incentive to switch to ebooks and a justification to put down the money for eReaders.
- Competition – First Sony, then Barnes & Noble, and recently Apple have all stoked the fire and forced Amazon and each other to improve their eReader and eBook offerings. Apple has been good and bad because it did help Publishers to raise ebook prices alongside introducing 70% royalties.
- 70% Royalties – It’s hard to even begin to describe the sea change from a world of 8-15% royalties to one of 70% royalties.
- A device that focuses on reading and disappears – eReaders do a great job at focusing on reading and at disappearing. This is especially evident if you try to read on a PC or even a smartphone. eReaders are just very, very good for enjoying the reading experience and for staying focused on the reading experience.
- A device that beats books on portability, weight, and one-handed reading - eReaders are better for one-handed reading, they weigh less than most books, they can hold thousands of books, and they fit into your purse.
These are some of the obvious eReader features and strengths that have helped eReaders become a viable niche and reach a stage where we can get a pretty amazing ereader and reading platform/service for just $189 or $199.
The real question is – What are the features that will allow eReaders to make it to the next level?
The features that will take eReaders from millions of eReaders sold to tens of millions of eReaders sold. The features that will take eBooks from 5% of book sales to 50% of book sales.
Searching for eReader features that will take eReaders to 20 million units sold
Dedicated eReaders are in a very interesting position – Lots of non-dedicated devices like phones and Tablets want a piece of reading and are coming up with features and marketing angles that may or may not make them better for reading.
So – Not only do eReaders have to add killer features and become better for reading, they have to do it faster than non-dedicated devices.
Here are some features that would help eReaders to continue to grow explosively -
- Add on great support for writing. The first thing it does is it lets eReaders (or the eReader+eWriter version) replace paper in more and more situations. The second thing it does is kill multi-purpose devices’ ability to compete – phones and Tablets just don’t have very good writing or data entry capabilities and it’s highly unlikely they’d cut down on their ability to do 1 million different things to support both better reading and better writing.
- eReader App Store. This is a double-edged sword. There would be apps that would add a lot of value to eReaders and there would also be apps that detract from reading. eReader companies would have to figure out a way to keep all the reading related and true value-add apps while keeping out all the apps that are distractions or that take away from reading.
- Color and Touch. These features would serve two purposes. First, they would add actual value – touch by making the user interface easier and making some things quicker, color by letting readers read textbooks, comics, magazines, and illustrated books. Second, they would provide a strong marketing benefit - eReaders would no longer be ‘older technology’, it would help sell eReaders to casual readers, and it would help with impulse purchases.
- Creating a Sustainable Price Range for eBooks. All the freedom and the democratization of Publishing is creating the unusual problem of people wanting to give away their work for free or being forced to. The Publishing Industry has to figure out a way to enforce a floor on ebook prices and since eReader companies are taking over Publishing the responsibility falls mostly on them. This would result in lots of benefits – Publishers would be happier to add-on more books, the books market would be sustainable and not collapse, and eReader companies could maintain steady profits and pump them back into R&D for eReaders.
- Improving the Platform and Services offered. So far Amazon has been the only company innovating and other eReader and eBook companies have been happy to copy features. One of the exceptions was Nook’s LendMe feature. eReader companies could benefit greatly by adding more killer features like Read To Me and wireless synchronization to eReaders.
- Making Reading Social as opposed to adding social features. Letting readers recommend books to other readers, matching up people with similar book tastes, allowing for virtual book clubs, and in general connecting eReader owners with each other. Popular Highlights is not a bad first step despite the concerns that have been raised.
- Keeping the focus on Reading. Devices that are better for something other than reading can’t grow reading or even sustain it. It’s a very prevalent myth that people will read a lot on devices that are better suited for playing games and making phone calls and watching movies. That’s just not going to happen. People will point to various reasons eBooks didn’t work on PCs and earlier cellphones and it’s all misdirection – Reading eBooks didn’t take off earlier because there was no device suited to reading. Lots of people will claim that they single-handedly started the eBook Revolution by reading ebooks on their phone in 2002 – However, the revolution didn’t happen until Sony Reader and Kindle arrived. Dedicated eReaders deserve all the credit.
- Creating and Sustaining Competition amongst eReaders and ePaper technologies. The current scenario with Kindle, Nook, Sony Reader all competing is great – as is the iPad pretending to be an eReader. On the other hand, the lack of competition for eInk is appalling – Hopefully, Pixel Qi and Qualcomm Mirasol screens will give eInk some solid, solid competition by end of the year.
- Avoiding all the sabotage attempts by Publishers. People have a hard time seeing and a harder time admitting that Publishers are sabotaging eReaders and eBooks – Despite the obvious advantages for Publishers if they manage to kill off eReaders and eBooks (15% royalties to authors instead of 70% royalties, high book prices, etc.). If eReader companies can survive these attempts or, better yet, show readers what’s really going on and get them firmly on the side of eReaders and ebooks then eReaders have an exceptionally good chance at continuing to grow. If, on the other hand, Publishers can pull off a few more stunts like the Agency Model then eReaders will stall.
- Avoiding Government Interference. It’s quite likely that attempts to sabotage eReaders involve Government Intervention – supposedly to sustain culture or prevent a monopoly. In reality they will simply be attempts to preserve the monopoly the Big 6 Publishers have. Not sure how this can be avoided – We can be pretty sure this will come into play sooner or later.
- Solving the Internationalization Issues. Outside the US we run into lots of issues – territorial rights, distribution problems, government regulations, pricing issues, language support. It’s unfortunate because every ebook sale strengthens eReaders and eBooks – whether it’s in Connecticut or Cairo. What’s worse is that with ebooks we don’t have transportation, storage, and retailing issues – In theory selling ebooks worldwide should be much easier.
- Creating Awareness amongst Readers. There is a ridiculous amount of confusion about eReaders – they are slower for reading, the screen hurts your eyes, you can only download your book once, the screen is just as bad as LCDs. Readers have no idea of the tremendous benefits and the drawbacks are usually exaggerated.
Those are some of the crucial eReader features that come to mind. It’s unfortunate that a lot of the upstart eReader companies like Readius and iRex are going bankrupt – It’s stealing a vital source of innovations and ideas. That would probably be another crucial feature – crazy ideas from eReader and eBook start-ups that the market leaders can steal or are forced to respond to.
Overall, eReaders still have a very bright future – It’s just that we’ll need a lot of additional killer features to make the jump to tens of millions of eReaders sold every year.
Filed under: eBook Reader Devices Tagged: | future of ebooks, future of ereader
One of the biggest issues is (10) and (11) in my view for growth of eReaders: Dealing with the ‘Rest Of The World’ outside the United States.
The US has just about 200 million people. There are about 5.2 BILLION people in the rest of the world.
I can hop on a plane to Miami and be there in less than an hour, walk into a Barnes and Noble and buy whatever books I want and return to my country…but I can’t click a button on Amazon.com and buy the same books? Ridiculous.
Amazon and Publishers cannot be serious about increasing their demographic for eReaders. From the moment a customer notices that they cannot purchase the latest best seller because they are outside the US, that’s a sale lost or an irate customer.
If I pay for the eReader, and I have the same money to spend as the US resident, there is absolutely no reason that I should not have the same variety of content to choose from.
In my view it should be a WTO issue.
The Value of an eReader is closely tied to the availability and scope of Content to be consumed on that eReader.
Essentially the Publishers and Amazon are offering a service of a higher quality and value to their Domestic Customers, and offering a service of lower value and quality for Export but charging more for it (there is an up charge afaik on wireless purchases outside the US).
That’s grossly unfair Trade.
Hi Abhi, it’s always a pleasure reading your in-depth analysis. I agree on many points but not all, as I’ll try to explain below.
The key point on which i disagree is this seeming emphasis on dedicated eReaders versus the so-called multipurpose devices. In my opinion, the entire point is mostly moot. The reason is the hardware (and the offer thereof) always follows the consumer demand, no matter how valid it is. The demand, on the other hand, comes from some inner need that needs to be fulfilled. In this day and age it seems the “new” craving need is to take the intake of information of the previous era to a new level – to go beyond physical reading into the realm of information sharing and collaborating.
One of the most striking examples is, of course, the Internet itself. Although originally designed as a resilient information interchange system with a specialized purpose, it grew to THE communication exchange system – and completely changed the world in the process.
The eBook phenomenon, in my opinion, should be viewed in the same context. What we are actually witnessing is not just a shift of the reading paradigm per se but a shift of the information processing one itself. The emergence of eBooks is only a by-product thereof.
In other words, it’s not about any particual device – it’s about transcending the physical medium into the realm of “abstract” – information is not associated with a physical book, physically produced by one or a few physical persons (as was the case in the days of Dante) nor a physical book produced by abstract means (like the press technology existing till today), but a pure abstract medium produced by pure abstract means and (possibly) even abstract parties.
The real issue here is the eBook emergence as an aspect of this world “revolution” and all those other issues that you so well point out regarding the conflict with the existing publishing and other spheres. The hardware will eventually adapt to any given outcome in this conflict. There will most likely always be dedicated hardware available (what you call eReaders), such as television sets today but also what you call multipurpose devices, such as our personal computers.
In my case, the reason I bought Kindle 2 International as soon as it became available was not the screen readability, nor the 60 second downloads, nor the free 3G Internet. It was the portability and the design. Basically what I wanted (and got with my Kindle 2) is the Personal Access Data Device (Padd) from Star Trek. If you’ve seen those you’ll know they were even lighter form factor than Kindle 2 and (as blasphemous as it may sound) multipurpose.
Basically the ideal device for me would be a 12-ish inch screen, possibly resizeable, no thicker than 0.1″ that can be folded as a road map to pocket size dimensions, can be used for hours without recharging (perhaps even solar-powered), supports ALL available wireless connections, is touch operated and can pretty much do everything short of arm wrestling with my kid.
The idea of some hardware induced distraction is kinda moot as well because, aside the uncontrolled marketing adds, it’s not the hardware that distracts you but you do it yourself. Although it’s possible in theory to produce a pure word processing electronic device no one actually bothers because the office suites on our computers do it all well enough, regardless of the multipurposeness of those platforms. If we procrastinate on account of our Facebook vices, it’s not our office suite’s fault but our own.
Also all the content should be on the cloud – portions of “books” streamed on the go to the device, alongside any other possible content. The days of carrying all your (electronic) belongings with you are basically as obsolete as the days of the physical book. Not to mention the UI should be as simple as voice input commands “gimme Abhi’s latest ravings please”. All the rest mostly belongs to the era whose passing we are witnessing. That said there will probably always be legacy items and people using them – but the majority will go, for the most part, with this new way of things. In other words. we still use candles, but mostly not for the bulk of our lighting needs.
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