Amazon has its Best Books of 2010 list and it’s included two interesting lists for the Kindle -
- Top 100 Editors’ Picks of 2010.
- Top 100 Customers’ Favorites of 2010.
These lists are remarkable in how different they are from the Top Kindle Bestsellers List. In particular, we’re talking about the percentage of $10+ Agency Model books that make their way on to these lists.
Analyzing the differences between Best Books of 2010 lists and Bestseller lists
First, let’s look at the Editors’ picks -
- Books above $10 - 56. 56% – Really?
- Books at $10 (including books between $9 and $10) - 42. A healthy 42%.
- Books below $10 - 2. How could there be just 2 books priced below $9 that are good enough to make it to the Top 100?
The editors would have us believe that out of the best 100 books this year 56 were priced above $10 and still are (or are now suddenly priced above $10). They would also have us believe that only 2 out of the 100 best books of the year are now below $9.
Might as well call this the ‘We love the Agency Model’ list.
Next, let’s look at the Customers’ Favorite Kindle books list -
- Books above $10 – 47. Customers picked $10+ books 47% of the time? Guess the Ken Follett 1 star reviews were counted as up votes.
- Books at $10 – 38.
- Books below $10 – 15. Interesting that only 15% of customers’ favorites were books below $9. Apparently, Stieg Larsson and all the indie authors are getting ignored totally.
It’s really hard to believe that customers somehow picked 47 books priced above $10 as their favorites.
These two lists would indicate a colossal success for the Agency Model – Editors are picking 56 books priced over $10 as their favorites for the year and readers are picking 47. Publishers might as well try $25 Kindle Books next.
It’s so strange because there have been so many complaints and so many $9.99 boycotts - surely, all the protests must mean something.
Are people just complaining and then buying books over $10? Have we bowed down to Publishers?
Well, that’s really, really, really hard to believe – that customers make the effort to give a 1 star rating and write on the kindle forums about an overpriced book and then turn around and buy the same book and vote for it as their favorite.
The second list (Customers’ Favorites) obviously isn’t using reviews because Ken Follett’s $19.99 opus is in there. A book with hundreds of 1 star reviews makes it to the Top 100 - That would only be possible if the list is based on raw sales and disregards reviews. That in turn would mean that all we have to do is look at raw sales and then we can confirm that the Agency Model has won out.
What books did Customers actually pay money for?
Surely, that’s the most reliable measure of ‘customer favorites’ – that all of us customers bought the book with our hard earned money.
Well, thanks to the Bestsellers Archive which has replaced the super useful Movers and Shakers section we get a picture of Kindle users voting with their pockets -
- Books above $10 - 31. What? Only 31% of the bestsellers were above $10. That seems rather different from the Editors’ 56%.
- Books at $10 - 32.
- Books below $10 – 35. This couldn’t be right. Didn’t the great editors tell us that only 2 books below $9 were worth reading? How dare we stupid readers challenge the authority of the Editors? How could we waste our money and time on 35 books priced below $9 when Ken Follett has decided we should spend $19.99 on his opus?
Please Note: 2 were not books so the total is 98.
This is a remarkably different list from the other two – Is it not?
Making sense of the discrepancy
Here are the results and a brief interpretation in italics -
- Editors’ Top 100 Books of 2010 - 56 are books above $10 and 42 are books between $9 and $10. The Agency Model has succeeded wildly and lower priced books have had no discernible impact (only two were below $9). It’s the dream world of Publishers.
- Customers’ Top 100 Books of 2010 – 47 books above $10 and 38 books between $9 and $10 and a mere 15 book below $9. The Agency Model is doing very well and book prices are stable and lower priced books have a rather insignificant market share (15%) and are probably only a distant threat. Kindle users have complained but they’ve still paid higher prices.
- Customers’ Actual Purchases aka The Reality List - 31 books above $10, 32 books between $9 and $10, and 35 books below $9.
So which would you trust more – Editors trying to save their fast disappearing jobs or Kindle owners like us who’re voting with our cold hard cash?
There are a few key things the Reality List tells us -
- The Reality is that customers are voting with their wallets and the Agency Model is failing miserably.
- There are now more books under $9 being sold than books over $10.
- There were more books under $9 sold than either books priced at $9.99 or books above $10. Not only is the Agency Model losing we are also losing the $9.99 price point.
- Ken Follet wasn’t just rewarded with a 2.5 stars review rating – his book is the 98th best-selling Kindle book of 2010. 90+ authors sold more than him – that’s got to hurt. 3 independent authors sold more than him. Don’t care how much he’s making from his $19.99 novels – that has really got to hurt.
- 3 independent authors made it into the Top 100 bestselling books of 2010 list. It’s the beginning of a very dangerous trend if you’re a Publisher.
Here’s the real icing on the cake – It’s getting even worse for the Agency Model.
A Harsher Reality – The Current Top 100 List
This is how the Top 100 list looks right now -
- Books above $10 – 27. It’s a mere 27% – The market share of Agency Model books in the Top 100 is around half of what editors would have us believe.
- Books between $9 and $10 – 30.
- Books below $9 - 40. Dear Editors, books below $9 aren’t 2% of the Top 100 – They’re 40%. It’s a ridiculously huge difference and strong proof that the Agency Model and $9.99 are both toast.
Please Note: 3 non-books were on the list so the total is 97.
There are some remarkable things in here -
- The number of books below $9 in the Top 100 has actually gone up to 40 out of 97. That’s the reward Publishers get for messing with Kindle owners – 40% of the bestselling books are below $9.
- There is a bias towards new Agency Model releases – new books obviously sell more plus all the preorders add up and boost sales rank. Despite that there are only 27 books priced above $10 in the Top 100.
- In the mind of editors – 56% of the best books of 2010 are above $10 and 42% are between $9 and $10. Our reality list of actual sales in 2010 says that it’s only 31% for each with the majority of Kindle book bestsellers (35%) being priced below $9.
- The current reality list (our current top 100) says 40% of Kindle book bestsellers are below $9 and only 27% are above $10.
As things get worse for them Publishers and Editors get more and more detached from reality.
Kindle Owners are in the drivers’ seat – whether they realize it or not
There are two factoids that illustrate that all the power is in the hands of Kindle owners now -
Firstly, despite Publishers’ attempts to impose the Agency Model on us we made books below $9 the largest share of the Top 100. 35% of the Top 100 were priced below $9 while only 31% were priced above $10.
Secondly, we’re making things worse for Publishers. As of right now, 40% of the Top 100 are books below $9.
The Agency Model is failing miserably and it’s also led to the death of the $9.99 price point. Publishers can get editors to conjure up whatever lopsided lists they like – Kindle owners are the ones with the money and the power and they’ve destroyed Publishers’ attempts to con them.