The Kindle and Nook and Sony Reader have a lot in store for us in 2011. Here are 10 Kindle, eReader predictions that may or may not come true.
Race to $100 - Part 2
We’ll see the drop in eReader prices continue with the $100 mark well and truly breached.
The Kindle WiFi will hit $100 by March 2011, and $75 by July 2011
It’s looking quite likely that the Kindle WiFi will drop to $100 or $110 early in 2011. Perhaps around the time the iPad 2 launches. Later, after Amazon has achieved higher economies of scale, it’ll probably decide to subsidize eReaders even more and we’ll see the Kindle WiFi hit $75.
Nook 2 will further lower prices by coming in at $150
B&N seems intent on under-cutting its rivals on price – It priced the Nook 1 cheaper than Kindle 2 despite the LCD touchscreen, it priced Nook Color at an absurdly low $250. It’s almost certainly going to introduce Nook 2 at $150 and force Amazon to cut the Kindle 3′s price.
Kindle 3 will hit $125 by July and might even go lower
Once Nook 2 arrives at $150 Amazon will have no choice – It’ll have to price Kindle 3 at $125 or lower.
We’ll end up with an even more fragmented eReader market.
eReader Market Fragmentation will continue
By mid 2011 we should see 5 different eReader segments -
- Kindle WiFi and a few other eReaders in the $75 to $100 range.
- Kindle 3 and Nook 2 in the $125 to $150 range.
- Nook Color and Kindle Tablet in the $200 to $250 range.
- Color Kindle and Color eInk based eReaders in the $300 to $400 range.
- Larger screen eReaders in the $300 and higher range.
3. and 4. will be the most interesting segments as Kindle will have to compete with an incumbent market segment leader.
4. and 5. will have to compete with the iPad 2 and its promise of ‘do more than just read’.
New Kindles and new eReaders in 2011
If you found the last section’s mention of Nook 2, Kindle Tablet, and Color Kindle intriguing you’ll love this section.
Amazon will release a Kindle Tablet
While it’s possible Amazon is rounding up gaming companies and Tablet related patents on a lark, it’s far more likely that Amazon is planning a Kindle Tablet. The Patents are its defence and the gaming companies the ammunition.
If there was any doubt at all in Amazon’s mind about the viability of a Kindle Tablet, the success of the Nook Color should remove it.
You also have to factor in that Amazon needs a Tablet – to compete with multi-purpose devices, to compete with iPad 2, and to compete with Nook Color.
Amazon will release a color eInk based Kindle 4
The second big release for Amazon in 2011 will be a Kindle 4 built using Mirasol color ePaper.
eReader maker PocketBook has announced a 2011 release of its Mirasol based color eReader. It will retail for $440 (courtesy Yuzutea). There’s no way Amazon is going to let PocketBook be the first company to introduce a color eInk eReader to the US.
Amazon has to find an advantage over other eReaders, and a way to compete better with ‘Reading Tablets’ and Tablets, and color eInk is as good an option as any.
B&N will release a Nook 2 and a Nook Color 2
B&N will be almost as busy as its lawyers -
- Expect a Nook 2 in March or April 2011. It’ll come in at $150, have eInk Pearl and touch, and will instantly put B&N back into the thick of the dedicated eReader race.
- Later in the year we should see a Nook Color 2. The quick release of the Nook Color 2 will be motivated by the strong sales of the Nook Color (more on that later).
Both will do very well. B&N will cement its #2 position in the eReader and eBook markets and will also cut into Amazon’s lead.
Sony will again push the technology bar – and will again fail to make headway
Sony will introduce new eReaders that will be the best eReaders around. It’ll disregard a few things – value for money, wireless downloads, having a good ebook store, making things easy for users.
So, yet again, Sony Readers will fail to have the impact they could.
Sony will then partner up with an eBook provider, perhaps Kobo, and make another push towards the end of the year.
Smaller eReader companies will announce lots of eReaders which will never be released
Ratio of ‘eReaders announced at CES’ to ‘eReaders actually released in 2011′ will be 30:1.
Things will get even tougher for new eReader makers because Kindle and Nook will have even bigger leads and will be subsidized even more.
Kindle, eReader sales will grow to tens of millions of eReaders
One analyst is predicting an 80% increase in eReader sales. It’ll actually be a lot more – especially if you include Nook Color and the soon-to-be-released Kindle Tablet.
Kindle to 10 million in annual sales, Nook to 3 million in annual sales
Kindle will sell very, very well and will hit the ’10 million Kindles sold in 1 year’ mark.
Nook 2 will sell around 3 million units.
Neither company will release numbers although B&N might give in to temptation and steal Amazon’s ‘millions of Kindles sold’ Press Release.
Nook Color to 10 million in annual sales, Kindle Tablet to 2 million in annual sales
Nook Color will exceed all expectations and sell 10 million units. It’ll steal sales mostly from iPad and Android Tablets.
Kindle Tablet will take a few mis-steps, then recover and sell a couple million units by end 2011.
Kindle Tablet mis-steps will include - Depending on external software, making everything tightly controlled, including its own products as defaults.
Color eReaders, Reading Tablets, and Tablets
We will see good old black-and-white eInk eReaders face three considerable challenges – Color eReaders, Reading Tablets, Tablets.
Color eReaders will arrive and will fail
2011 will be the ‘Year of the Arrival and Failure of Color eReaders’.
Year of the Arrival because color eInk is almost ready and there’s a lot of pressure from Tablets and Reading Tablets.
Year of the Failure because the prices and quality won’t be good enough. It won’t be a bone-crushing, soul-sapping defeat. Just a semi-painful ‘it was a learning experience’ kind of defeat.
Color Kindle will arrive
Amazon will be squeezed by Tablets, Reading Tablets, and Color eReaders and will decide to push a color Kindle to market.
It’ll get great reviews and then people will decide the $125/$150 Kindle 3 is just as good for reading books. Amazon will probably be happy to have the color Kindle as it’ll put an end to Color eReader vs Kindle 3 comparisons.
Reading Tablets will become very popular
Nook Color and Kindle Tablet will steal lots and lots of casual readers – from iPad 2.
Dedicated eReaders will get all the hardcore and regular readers.
Tablets will still be stealing away casual readers – just not very many
iPad 2 will still get a decent number of casual readers – who will then become even more casual readers.
There will be endless articles about how Tablet X, Y, and Z will destroy eReaders and the significance of having accelerometers in your reading device – How do you know you’re holding the book the right side up without an accelerometer?
Kindle, eReader Predictions for 2011 - Extras
We’ll see a lot of interesting things happen in areas that intersect with eReaders.
eReader sales will spur eBook sales to 21.5% market share
All those people buying dedicated eReaders devoted to reading, and Reading Tablets focused on reading, will end up reading more than they did. It’ll lead to a huge increase in ebook sales.
eBooks will account for 21.5% market share by November 2011.
One of the Big 6 Publishers will go bankrupt
2011 will be a year of huge shifts. A direct result will be that one of the Big 6 Publishers will go bankrupt.
One of the eReader App Stores will explode in popularity and importance
We know that, just like in every other market, one App Store is bound to take over. In the eReader market, we have the Kindle App Store for 5 million or so Kindles, and the Nook App Store for half a million or so Nook Colors.
One of the two stores is going to take off and the associated device will see an additional 2 to 4 million sales because of that. This is on top of the above estimates.
Regardless of my personal desire to see lots of killer apps on the Kindle, it’s likely that the Nook Color will be the one seeing a lot of killer apps – thanks to the LCD screen, the touch capability, and the Android foundation.
At least a few indie authors will spurn book deals
The true measure of the impact of eReaders and eBooks will be when a few indie authors find success in the Kindle Store, and the Nook Store, and then turn down book deals.
This will happen in 2011 itself, and will become a trend by end 2011. Authors will do the math, and will figure out that 70% of $3 is a lot more than what they’d earn with Publishers.
Amazon Encore is excluded as it holds the keys to the Kindle Store.
Authors will become a bigger market than Readers, and companies will rise up to serve them
We’re talking about companies that provide ‘great’ service, and increase the probability of success by 0.01%.
There will be a few lone exceptions that actually help authors succeed.
Closing Thought – 2011 is going to be crazy and fun
A lot is going to happen in the eReader World in 2011. There’s so much to look forward to.
We have brand new technologies, and brand new entrants. We have B&N working on an answer to Kindle 3, and Amazon working on an answer to Nook Color. We have iPad 2 and Pixel Qi Tablets. We have smaller eReader companies promising color eInk eReaders.
We have our 20 Kindle, eReader predictions for 2011. It’s going to be a very interesting year for the Kindle, and for eReaders.
Filed under: thoughts Tagged: | future of ereaders, kindle predictions
“and instantly puts B&N back into the think of the dedicated eReader race.”
Typo? “think” -> “thick”?
thanks. I can be thick sometimes when I’m overthinking things.
Have you seen an estimate of what the Kindle 3 parts cost? I have seen estimates of the 2 but not the 3.
No, not that I recall. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Kindle WiFi came in very close to the $139 selling price.
Actually, Pocketbook’s ereader is going to be Mirasol (price unclear), and Hanvon is the one planning the e-ink triton (color) ereader at $440. Hanvon is only going to be releasing it in China, however.
I’d also add that Sony is going to probably be focusing on the Japanese market.
Thanks for the update. Very interesting that Hanvon will be released an eInk Triton based eReader in China. Wouldn’t think there was a market for $440 eReaders anywhere.
Great post! Looking forward to 2011!
“Later, after Amazon has achieved higher economies of scale, it’ll probably decide to subsidize eReaders even more …”
Amazon has to be cautious here, lest the government accuse it of predatory pricing.
“It’s almost certainly going to introduce Nook 2 at $150 …”
Very unlikely, IMO. It can’t meet demand at $250. And it can’t take the losses forever–its finances are too shaky.
“It’s looking quite likely that the Kindle WiFi will drop to $100 or $110 early in 2011.”
“early” is too early, IMO. I’d say “late.”
“There’s no way Amazon is going to let PocketBook be the first company to introduce a color eInk eReader to the US.”
I don’t see why not, especially if, as you state later (correctly, IMO), “2011 will be the ‘Year of the Arrival and Failure of Color eReaders’ … because the prices and quality won’t be good enough.” If Amazon anticipates this, why not let some other company catch the flack for introducing it, and wait-and-see how its sales go, only introducing its own if necessary as a defensive measure? More important, Amazon won’t want to rush out a flawed product and get bad reviews.
“Nook Color and Kindle Tablet will steal lots and lots of casual readers – from iPad 2.”
I think so. (I told Apple years ago it should make a foldable version of its tablet!)
“A direct result will be that one of the Big 6 Publishers will go bankrupt.”
These things take time. It takes a lot of arrows to kill an elephant. Add six months to your forecast. And it’s unlikely to actually file for bankruptcy. More likely it will be acquired by a competitor for pennies on the dollar.
“Amazon will probably be happy to have the color Kindle as it’ll put an end to Color eReader vs Kindle 3 comparisons.”
OTOH, it’ll make a start to the Bezos 2010 vs. Bezos 2011 position statements. (E.g., to his dissing of color in his interview on Charlie Rose and elsewhere.)
“Kindle will sell very, very well and will hit the ’10 million Kindles sold in 1 year’ mark. … Nook Color will exceed all expectations and sell 10 million units.”
Too high by 25% (or more). (Unless the extremely low pricing you predict occurs, which I don’t think will happen.) These things take time. There isn’t that much unmet demand.
“Authors will do the math, and will figure out that 70% of $3 is a lot more than what they’d earn with Publishers.”
Yep. Disintermediation is the wave of the future in publishing.
“We’re talking about companies that provide ‘great’ service, and increase the probability of success by 0.01%. There will be a few lone exceptions that actually help authors succeed.”
Hey, authors, here’s a free tip: If you have a good speaking voice, or a friend who’s an actor, release a free audiobook version of your first chapter. This will attract a slice of the market that has been underserved with free offers.
“A lot is going to happen in the eReader World in 2011. There’s so much to look forward to.”
Especially making the doubters eat crow.
Next year on this date why not revisit the predictions made here and see how right everyone was?
You know how predictions are – half will be wrong. Yes, it would definitely be worth re-visiting.
I’ve been saying this for a long time (search my blog), eReaders will follow the same trajectory as calculators: $400 (early adopters) -> $189 (you are here) -> $100 (becoming mainstream) -> $19 (disposable).
If the economy doesn’t collapse, I’m guessing we hit the $100 price point about a year from now. It’ll take a few more years to reach the $19 supermarket checkout rack price point, say 2015.
That will also change the way eBooks are sold — brick & mortar bookstores that survive the coming upheavals will have physical media to carry again, it just won’t be paper. Or rather, it will be alongside paper. I figure eBooks of 2015 will come on microSD chips (except for Sony, who will insist on Memory Stick Micro M2, and will thus suffer the fate of Betamax) since the publishers can lock them down if they choose. Those will be equivalent to today’s hardcover editions. Downloads will be the new paperback, along with periodicals and promotions.
By 2020, there will be wearable eBook readers (equivalent to calculators on wrist watches) and all sorts of form factors and superfluous features added to differentiate them. There will also be “premium” models that will resemble today’s readers, in the $49-99 range. Above that will be only tablet computers and smart phones with eReader applications.
Feel free to laugh when I get all of this wrong.
P.S. I like Roger Knight’s advice about audio-casting a chapter. My voice sucks, but my daughter is a voice-trained musician… hmmmmm…
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[...] a lot has happened in Kindle Land in 2011. Thanks to Roger Knights for pointing out my post on 10 Kindle, eReader Predictions for 2011 which was written in December, 2010. He thinks I should review the predictions and it’s a [...]