The Kindle, the Nook, and all of us await what 2011 might bring.
2010 was a very interesting year. We had a lot of interesting eReader related events - CES 2010 was full of eReaders, we had the advent of $150 eReaders, the iPad arrived, Kindle DX 2 arrived, we got Nook WiFi, we had Kindle WiFi and Kindle 3, the Nook color was released, Sony brought touch to eReaders.
2011 promises to be just as interesting. Let’s look at the eReader events and happenings that are candidates to be the Top 5 eReader events of 2011.
Things left unfinished
There are a lot of things left over from 2010 -
- Arrival of color eReaders. eInk, Qualcomm, and Pixel Qi all promised or hinted at color eReaders in 2010. In 2011 they get to deliver on their unfulfilled promises.
- iPad 2 to destroy eReaders. Lots of people thought iPad would kill eReaders. Steve Jobs gets to try to get that done in 2011 with iPad 2. We all know this is rather unlikely – still, it’s fun to let non-readers, who hardly ever buy books, remain delusional and believe they are going to determine the future of books and reading.
- Google to deliver the most dangerous Kindle competitor. Google eBooks has a lot of potential but it seems rushed – In 2011 Google should have enough time to deliver a full solution.
- Sony Reader finally adds wireless support? Sony refuses to add wireless support to its Pocket and Touch models. In 2011 we might finally see it change its mind. Kobo took 5-6 months to realize lack of wireless was a deal breaker – Why can’t Sony see this after 3+ years?
- Plastic Logic to release Que. Plastic Logic delayed its Que proReader after the iPad was launched. In 2011 it should have something out, and we’ll find out if there’s a market for ‘business eReaders’.
A lot of the biggest events of 2011 might be the outcome of things started in 2009 and 2010.
The Reading Tablet Wars
Nook Color has carved out a new market. It’s also managed to capture the dual crowns of best Android tablet and best Tablet under $400.
A few of the top events of 2011 might be events related to the Reading Tablet Wars -
- Release of a Kindle Reading Tablet.
- Release of Nook Color 2.
- Nook Color becoming a major force and hitting the 5 million units sold mark.
The Nook Color and other Reading Tablets will have a major impact in 2011. People still don’t realize that a lot of what they really love about dedicated eReaders is the dedication to readers. A reading tablet that is dedicated to readers and reading will have a lot more impact than people realize.
New eReaders and Color eReaders
This ties in with the ‘Unfinished Business of 2010′ list.
- We will see a color screen PocketBook eReader powered by Qualcomm Mirasol in Q3, 2011.
- We will find out which company was the motivation for Qualcomm’s $2 billion investment in Mirasol production facilities.
- We’ll see Hanvon release their color eReader. Perhaps even in the US.
- We might see a Color Kindle.
- One out of Sony Reader and Nook might take a gamble on a color screen eReader.
We also have eReaders we don’t know about yet – a possible GReader, Pixel Qi powered tablets sold as eReaders, perhaps a dedicated reading device from Apple (actually, it’s rather unlikely). Kobo is likely to release a new Kobo Reader.
There are also a few new eReaders being shown off at CES 2011, including the iRiver Story HD which has 1024 by 800 screen resolution.
Kindle 4 and Nook 2 and Sony Reader 675
The Big 3 eReaders of 2009 and 2010 (Kindle, Nook, and Sony Reader) are all likely to see new versions released this year -
- Kindle 4 might be an improved Kindle with a color screen or a touch screen.
- Nook 2 has to compete against Kindle 3 – you have to wonder what surprises it might spring.
- Sony Readers have consistently been the best reading devices. They have also been consistently let down by poor infrastructure and by a terrible ebook store. Will 2011 be different?
Nook 2 is the biggest release here – It sets the tone for Kindle vs Nook for all of 2011. Nook Color is gorgeous, but it’s in a different segment - B&N really, really needs a solid Nook 2 to compete effectively in the dedicated eReader space.
The new Sony Reader releases are important – especially if Sony ties up with Google, and lets the ‘Do No Evil’ Empire provide infrastructure and ebooks.
Could Kobo produce a couple of the most significant events of 2011?
Kobo is threatening on multiple fronts. If it manages to release a killer eReader it might end up with an eReader+Store combo that’s as good as Kindle.
Could Kobo produce something exquisite in 2011?
eReader Wars of 2011 – Strategy Wars
There’s a lot that might happen in terms of strategy -
- A Tablet might convince people it’s an eReader.
- Reading tablets might overtake dedicated eReaders.
- Perhaps we see $100 eReaders and $75 eReaders.
- There might be a real Kindle DX competitor.
- Perhaps eReaders make serious headway in education.
- 2011 might be the year we get eReaders that are subsidized by a subscription plan or a contract of some sort.
- We might see a great eReader feature that massively increases adoption.
- An eReader+eWriter combination like the Asus Memo might start stealing eReader market share.
- Advertising supported books might arrive.
There will be a lot of new strategies implemented in the eReader market this year. A couple of them might prove to be the decisive events of 2011.
Will the Kindle App Store and the Nook App Store take off?
Kindle Apps for Kindles. Nook Apps for the Nook Color.
What impact might they have? Will we see any true killer eReader apps?
Apps that make eReaders even more of a value proposition. Apps that make more people choose an eReader over a Tablet. Apps that make more people buy an eReader.
This is a wildcard. No one knows what apps we might see, or what impact those apps might have. We just know that there’s a lot of potential here.
Could there be developments that take eReaders in a completely different direction?
What if there’s an eReader released that changes the direction eReaders are evolving in – an eReader for kids, an education-focused eReader, an eReader that replaces both the reading and writing aspects of paper.
There is a chance that something is released in 2011 which proves to be a lot more meaningful than color or touch. A development as important as eInk and wireless delivery of books.
There’s a slight chance Nook Color is exactly such a development. We’ll find out this year.
My prediction for Top 5 eReader events of 2011
Here are the 5 things likely to cause the most impact -
- Kindle Reading Tablet. If this is released, and it looks increasingly likely, it’ll be huge.
- Google and Sony teaming up. It’s possible, and if it happens it’ll instantly make the Go-ony combination the #2 eReader+eBook solution.
- $100 and cheaper eReaders. At $100 people start buying for the love of buying – especially if Amazon and B&N learn from Kobo, and start bundling in 1,000 free public domain books. Public domain books that make people feel they instantly got their money’s worth.
- Nook Color. The significance of the Nook Color isn’t clear yet. The key turning point would be people realizing what the Nook Color is capable of, and the outcome would be Reading Tablets becoming a tens of millions of units a year market.
- One out of Kindle App Store and Nook App Store taking off. The 1-year head-start of the Kindle App Store versus the army of Android developers the Nook App Store can tap into. One of these is going to result in killer apps, which in turn would have a huge impact on the adoption rate of eReaders and Reading Tablets.
The wild cards are Nook 2, the new Kobo reader, and possibly a strategy shift that throws off everyone - It’s likely to be a subscription/subsidy based eReader. It’ll be a strategy shift that changes how eReaders are sold.
Google is another wildcard. It’s just that it’s so scattered in its focus - Will it be interested in the unsexy world of providing great ebook and eReader services, or will it prefer to make cars that drive themselves?
There are a few events that will get a lot of hype. Here are my reasons why they aren’t very significant -
- Arrival of the iPad 2. Well, since iPad completely destroyed eReaders - to the point that only 10 million or so eReaders were sold in 2010 – we know that iPad 2 couldn’t possibly have any impact. After all, eReaders are already dead and buried.
- Release of Color eReaders. Firstly, it’s been a year since they were announced, and 6 months since they were supposed to arrive. They are still being announced, and now are being promised for Q3, 2011. They might not arrive, and they might be released by the wrong companies – companies other than Amazon and B&N. Unless Amazon releases a color Kindle 4, or B&N releases a color Nook 2, we won’t see color eReaders do much.
- The new Sony Readers. If Sony doesn’t partner with Google it just doesn’t have the store or infrastructure to provide a great experience.
- eReaders + eWriters. The current solutions are based on touchscreens and styluses and are tacky. The real way to do this is with keyboards and software – usable keyboards and really excellent software.
- New eReaders. The battle is being fought by ecosystems and pure eReaders will have an incredibly tough time. To win, or to do well, a company has to provide an eReader, a store, and infrastructure – It’s very, very tough to get all three right.
There’s a pretty big disconnect. People who don’t read books think that color screens and the iPad 2 and being able to do more than just read are the real events that will shape the future of books. The truth is that it’s going to be remarkably boring things that shape the future of eReaders – providing more value for money, releasing a device that is EVEN BETTER for reading books, replacing paper, eReader apps, tablets that are focused on reading, expanding to reading of all types.