This post will cover three assumptions/pieces of conjecture -
- Sooner or later authors chosen by readers will outsell authors chosen by Publishers. To the tune of indie authors and new publisher authors having 75 or more out of the Top 100 books in the Kindle Store (currently it’s around 25). The corollary will be that 50 or more of the books in any honest bestseller list will be indie books (across ebook and physical book combined).
- Publishers are only picking indie authors who are doing well because they promise a higher chance than usual of profit. Publishers can not guarantee success - they just want to profit off of readers’ crowd intelligence and pick authors who have a slightly better chance of succeeding.
- You should stick to your core competency and to the environment that best suits you. Success in one environment is not a guarantee of success in another – it’s not even a good indicator. Publishers picking readers’ champions and enticing them with book deals are actually hurting these authors. Authors falling for the seductive overtures of Publishers are completely missing the 10,000 foot view and the long-term view.
Hopefully this post gets a ton of authors upset and they write posts about how Publishers are far more important and powerful than readers. It would be great to have a list of authors who chose Publishers over readers. When eReaders and eBooks have completely taken over (by end 2013 to mid 2014) we can look back at this list and get some solid figures on whether choosing Publishers over Readers was a good decision in mid 2011.
People’s Champions will beat the Publishers’ Champions
This is the part almost every author is missing.
Publishers are Publisher-Gods and Publisher-Kings no more. That disconnect – where authors thought Publishers were the ones paying them, and where readers thought Publishers knew what was good for them – is gone.
Now it’s clear to readers (even if it isn’t yet clear to most authors) that readers are buying books. Not Publishers, not retailers, not distributors. It’s you and me who are keeping this industry going.
Now it’s clear to readers that Publishers are just throwing darts. That they are no better at deciding what’s worth reading than a reader himself. Readers are realizing that the best way to find the books they want to read, and at good prices, is to band together and ferret out the best books (from both published and unpublished authors).
Authors have to make a choice
One author says – He is a Publisher’s Champion. Publishers will take him to the bookstores and promote him and turn him from an unknown into a Stephen King (or a James Patterson for those who value money a little more).
Another author says – She is a People’s Champion. That she can make more per book while readers have to pay less per book. That readers are the best judge because it is them she writes for.
All along, right up to 2011, the first author has always won out. The second author has had nowhere to go. The first author got prestige and reputation and in some cases even money. The second author – She struggled to even get her book into stores.
The times they are a-changing.
Now, the second author can use the Kindle Store and the Nook Store and the Internet and can reach owners directly. She can sell ebooks and compete on price. She can sell ebooks to eReader owners and compete on reading experience.
At first, it seems she has a fair chance. However, it becomes more than fair when you realize that readers are very intelligent people. They instinctively know when an author is pro-reader. They also realize when an author cares only about Publishers and money - Why ask readers to buy $8 and $10 books when the author could easily offer the same books for $3 or even $1?
That’s the part authors are missing - Readers are your real customers and offering them a better deal increases your chances of success.
By End 2013, Big 6 Authors will have less than 25% of the charts
Currently, indie authors have 25 books in the Kindle Store Top 100. The official bestseller charts try their best to ignore indie authors so let’s not even go there.
By End 2013, the people will have flexed their muscles. Indie authors and pro-reader authors (author represented by the new breed of Publishers like Open Road and Rosetta Books and Amazon Encore) will own 75% or more of the charts. They will also own 50% or more of the combined charts (ebooks and physical books).
Authors that choose the Big 6 and anti-reader initiatives like the Agency Model will pay a very heavy price.
Publishers are only picking successful indie authors to increase their probability of getting a hit
Let’s say you’re an indie author. You write a good book, offer it out for $1 at all the ebook stores, drive a grass-roots campaign, and manage to get a lot of buzz and sales.
You start making a decent amount of money.
This is where you have to make hard decisions. You’ve done all the work. Now is your time to write more books and cash in. Except Publishers come in and sweet-talk you about how you’re going to be the next James Patterson.
What do you do?
What Publishers say -
Look how well your book has done.
Our in-house fortune-teller says you are the next Stephen King.She gazes into the crystal ball and sees you as the one.
Sign a deal with us - do the right thing.We’ll get you fame and fortune - it’s an opportunity that’s second to none.
Plus we’ll guarantee you a hit every time you step into the ring.
What Publishers really mean -
Minimize our risk we must.
Your book is likelier to succeed than go bust.
In us you should trust.Let us invoke your money-lust.
Even if for readers the price is unjust.
Readers can wait for the buttered portion while they nibble on the crust.
That was pretty unnecessary. Publishers aren’t really that evil - they are just fattened middle-men who get a larger share than they deserve.
Publishers see an indie author doing well and they think he has a higher chance of being a success. Publishers see a writer chosen by readers and they see potential profit. Publishers think readers who picked that author should be rewarded with higher book prices and 1 year waits.
If the indie author is already doing well, then the Publisher obviously isn’t picking the indie author to develop talent or make him a success. It’s for profit. That means someone has to pay the extra profit that the Publisher hopes to make. Who better than readers who did all the work to recognize the talent?
Readers who are now invested in the author because they helped discover him.
Fundamentally, Publishers are taking the indie author out of the environment he succeeded in. They are changing all the factors that made him a success.
Stick to your Core Competency and to an Environment where you have Competitive Advantages
Publishers signing Indie Authors are generally doing them a disservice. Here are a few reasons why -
- The price always goes up. How do we know an indie author who succeeded with $1 can succeed with $10?
- The author might be suited to early adopter markets. Kindle and Nook owners are probably more enthusiastic than most readers about new authors and perhaps even more forgiving. How do we know that people buying books at Random Grocery Store X will give an indie author a chance?
- An author might have something that clicks for them – a personal story, the way they interact online, a website, a blog. Most of those things don’t translate to the real world.
- Publishers are notoriously bad at ‘making authors succeed’. Only one or two out of 10 published books do very well. Are you increasing your chances of success by signing with a Publisher or decreasing them?
- Publishers promise more than they deliver. A Publisher’s marketing isn’t going to be 10 times better than yours - it might even be worse. Yet, if you’re not careful you’ll get complacent and start thinking you can leave all the marketing to them.
There are lots of other factors too -
- How can a Publisher with 1,000 authors give enough attention to an individual author?
- Isn’t the ebook market comparatively far easier for an indie author to understand and work in?
- Aren’t traditional publishers at a huge disadvantage in the new world of Publishing? Is their advantage with physical books offset by their disadvantages in ebooks?
- Can an indie author afford to make readers wait for 12 months for their next book?
- What about time and number of books? Is one book every 18 months from a Publisher worth more than one book every 6 months from their indie imprint?
Indie authors who are doing well enough to be in the Top 100 in the Kindle Store (or to be within shooting distance) should seriously consider what it would mean to leave an environment they know, and have found success in, to become one out of 10,000 authors a large Publisher is publishing.
As an indie author they have readers hugely invested in their success. As a published author it might not be the same. As an indie author readers are very patient with them. How much patience would there be if their book was $8 and had the stamp of a Big 6 Publisher?
Authors need to be painfully aware that to Publishers they are just a bet – a bet with a higher chance of paying off, a bet that Publishers have to spend less on, a bet that can be deprioritized if a better option comes along.
Publishers are taking thoroughbreds born to race freely and putting them to work pulling a loaded cart – a cart loaded with Publishers’ overheads, their insights from a different era, and their reluctance to treat customers fairly.
For all we know, Publishers might be taking guaranteed hit authors and turning them into failures.
Readers and Publishers are at war and there can only be one winner
Let’s be absolutely clear about what’s at stake here -
- Old Publishing: Publishers had all the power - they decided which author got published, they decided which books readers got to read. Books were $10 to $20. It was a world ruled by the Publisher-Kings.
- New Publishing: Readers have all the power – they decide which author wins, they decide which Publisher survives. Books are falling towards the $1 to $5 range. It’s a world where readers have more power than they could dream of (and more power than they realize).
If readers win, Publishers would have to give up – power of choosing authors, power of choosing books, control, high-price books, decent profit margins. If readers win, Publishers would face the threat of – extinction, losing all power and becoming service-providers, a new environment they aren’t suited for, fierce new competitors, powerful platforms.
It’s the equivalent of taking the Kings of Medieval Europe and forcing them to bake bread and sell loaves of bread to the filthy peasants they used to rule over. Can you blame Publishers if some of them seem to prefer death?
The Big 6 Publisher as exists today can only survive in a world where Publisher-Kings rule.
Can you imagine a Publisher which used to decide what entire nations would read adapting itself into a service provider which asks readers what they would like to read?
It’s hard for me to imagine that scenario. You can take the Publisher-King out of his Castle but you can’t take the ‘God-given-right to decide everything’ attitude out of him.
In the end, the revolution is either going to be crushed brutally or it is going to result in a bloody mess - a mess that includes a lot of critical Publisher body parts. Given that we have eReaders, Platforms, indie authors, intelligent readers, and the Internet – it’s rather unlikely that Publishers will be able to crush the spirit of readers.
We are in the death-throes of the old Publishing industry. Authors who want to hedge their bets are welcome to. However, any author who turns his back on readers, who makes readers wait a year to get decently priced books, who makes readers pay more for ebooks than the paperback price, who trumpets how much more important Publishers are - Well, that author can look forward to some real character-building experiences once the revolution has run its course.
Filed under: kindle, publishing Tagged: | future of publishing, future of reading, reading revolution
You, sir, are the Karl Marx of the ebook-reading proletariat.
I’m curious what you have against published writers, because you’re coming across as incredibly bitter.
I doubt your post is going to get anyone upset, especially not authors. Authors will adapt. I’m sure once ebooks make up more than 15% of the market, you’ll see a mass exodus to epublishers and self publishing. Writer’s will write, and changing the way their writing is delivered to readers isn’t as big of a deal as you think. They’ll adapt.
The mistake you’re making is thinking that the lower talent writers who currently make up the bulk of self publishing are going to take over the entire industry. That’s just wrong. There are a few who will find their place, and who should’ve found their place in the publishing world, too, but didn’t since publishers ability to weed out the good from the bad can be flawed to say the least (see, we agree on some things).
This ‘People’s champion vs Publisher’s champion” thing is ridiculous, and it’s only reinforcing my belief that you think you’re smarter than you really are. That’s ok. A lot of people think they’re smarter than they really are, so you’re far from original.
Here’s the thing, and it ties back to your last post about Rector and how he turned his back on his readers by signing a contract. If you remember, I took you to task on that premise because you pulled all your facts out of your ass instead of finding the truth. I used words like lazy, which you threw back at me for doing the same, remember?
Fair enough.
Well, I took your challenge and emailed Rector. I told him about your article, and this is what he had to say.
“As well as The Grove did as a self published novel, the book I published with a major publisher sold more copies and reached more readers. And the Amazonencore published version of The Grove sold FAR more copies than the indie version.”
So, how does that fit with your theory? He sold more books and reached more readers by publishing with major publishers than he did self publishing even though his self published book was an ebook bestseller.
I asked him about your claim that he turned his back on the readers who got him where he was, and he said:
“I had the Tor deal before I released The Grove on my own, so my experience as an indie had nothing to do with the publishing contract. And I don’t think I turned my back on anyone. My books are available to whoever wants them.”
There goes that theory, right?
Maybe by saying these writers turned their backs on readers, you’re really saying they turned their backs on readers who think books should cost $.99. If so, that’s a totally different subject.
Rector also said he’s a big supporter of ebooks and indie publishing and even has a few projects lined up that he’s going to release on his own in between his published novels. And that’s what got me thinking. Smart writers will take advantage of all avenues to get their writing out to readers, which is how it should be, don’t you think?
You’re probably right that there are a few old school writers with their heads in the sand who will never see the future, and they will certainly be left behind, but the majority will adapt to the new publishing industry and things will equalize.
Why you’re trying to create a conflict where one doesn’t exist is beyond me. There are changes in publishing, and that shoulod make everyone happy. I see no reason to turn on the artists and start talking about Mccarthy-era blacklists when the problem is with the corporate structure of publishing.
1) My problem is with authors forgetting that readers pay for books. I have NOTHING against authors – whether published or unpublished.
2) It’s disingenuous for published authors to wash their hands off and claim that they can’t do anything if Publishers price-gouge readers and make readers wait needlessly.
3) Thanks for getting in touch with John Rector and providing zero figures. Firstly, he’s unlikely to ever admit he messed up. Secondly, the whole argument is moot because the comparison should be between ->
a) How many books he would have sold if he had stayed indie and made some smart marketing moves.
Vs
b) How many books he has sold by going with a Publisher.
You can’t compare what he sold when ebooks were 2.85% of the market (and when he was beginning to get noticed) with what he’s selling as the market is growing. The correct comparison would be for him to write a book and sell it himself at whatever price gets him the same amount per book as he makes from Publisher published books. Then his future behavior would tell us really works for him, and his beliefs would shift accordingly.
4) As an author you might see no conflict. As a reader there’s a war going on. Publishers first tried to kill ebooks (and do a repeat of what they did with RocketBook and Peanut Press a decade ago). Then they did the agency Model. They are all-out trying to kill ebooks. They are making customers wait a year to get the books they want to read. They are trying to get back the power and the control.
What is your definition of ‘conflict’?
Authors, especially published ones, are trapped because they are used to the ‘Publishers pays me’ and ‘Publisher makes me successful’ mindsets. As readers we are free of that because we have always paid for books and we still pay for books.
5) About this ->
***it’s only reinforcing my belief that you think you’re smarter than you really are. That’s ok. A lot of people think they’re smarter than they really are, so you’re far from original.
I’m not smart enough to understand that. My high school counsellor (who was distractingly good looking so I might not remember correctly) told me that I had a combination of the highest scores she had ever seen and the lowest scores she had ever seen.
Across the 9 intelligences (or however many intelligences there are) I’m pretty sure every single person in the world is smarter than me in one or more intelligences and every single person in the world is dumber than me in at least one. So we can stop personal attacks.
*********
Saying Published authors are making a mistake is NOT equal to a personal insult. So there really is no need for you to attack me or claim that I’m attacking published authors.
Reality doesn’t care about my personal feelings or yours. Reality will clear things up in a few years. We should just agree to disagree until then – with the one caveat that it would be great if you stopped interpreting posts as attacking authors.
It’s hard to disagree with any of this, except possibly the timetable for when things happen, which is still speculation based on current data. For my own take, I checked the Kindle Top 100 and found 30 indie titles (if you still count Amanda Hocking, with 3), and 8 of those indie authors with multiple titles. Most of those books are at $0.99.
Based on that I could foresee your scenario playing out faster than by the end of 2013, particularly given that indie authors are putting out multiple books per year.
I agree it could be faster. We’re past the tipping point. But hey, will readers be at any loss if Switch’s prediction happens a month or a year earlier?
Neil
That might very well be the case. I don’t think anyone expected 30 indie author books in the Top 100 by 2011.
@switch11:” I don’t think anyone expected 30 indie author books in the Top 100 by 2011.”
Agreed. That bit is amazing!
And the backlists are coming. The publishers have never had to compete with their backlists before…
Neil
June of last year is when JA Konrath started selling enough ebooks to live off his indie sales. My favorite Kindle author only started on 4/20/2010 and needs to finish his (Nathan Lowell) series before expecting to earn a full time income writing.
But we know more an more indie authors are earning enough to write full time vs. very poor income for the ‘published’ authors (in general). A full time income means the ability to write 2 to 6 books per year versus 1.
For readers, as you noted switch, the quantity of books indie vs. published is dramatic. There are a few authors worth waiting a year… they represent 5% of my annual reading! The AAP publishers are going to have a very tough time competing for the other 95% of the business…
Neil
If I were a successful indie author and the publishers came calling, I’d do a deal for print, since that’s such a hassle, but keep the ebook rights for myself. If they didn’t go for that, I’d do a print on demand deal.
Indies can hire independent editors and proofreaders. They could even hire someone to help them with marketing – Twitter, Facebook, maintain website, etc. Those jobs were the reason Amanda Hocking gave in and did the publishing contract. She said they took too much time away from writing. I hope it works out for her but I think she made a mistake.
Just last night, Gordon Ryan announced that the third book in his Pug Conner series was available and that he was gifting 100 copies. He emailed me personally. Where do you ever get that kind of contact with a traditionally published author? I want Gordon to do well. I enjoy his books and would have purchased his new one if he hadn’t gifted it to me. I’ll be happy to write a review. That personal connection is what the big 6 don’t understand.
Agreed. It’s so true – the Publishers are used to dealing with retailers and distributors. They seem to have forgotten there are human beings buying the books.
[...] read an article earlier this week on the authors and the publishing industry. It’s long and kind of repetitive, but it makes one excellent point. Readers are the [...]
I was in NY with six books. I never made a living until February, nearly 10 years after my first book deal and about six years after the last. I won’t say I’ll never sign a publishing contract, but when I hear authors violently defend a system that guarantees almost every one of them fail, I can’t understand. But, heck, maybe I do–taking power and responsibility is pretty scary.
I’ve had a couple of Top 100 books and expect The Skull Ring to get there, too. The most amazing thing to me is to be able to connect one to one with a reader, without all this noise, burden, and extra cost in between.
I am not even sure there’s enough bookstore life left to create a new James Patterson–he was the penultimate achievement of corporate publishing–a multi-genre brand that didn’t even really manufacture (write). I don’t think the current era will support such a monstrosity. And in ebooks, it doesn’t matter–there can never again be such a monopoly of every available window front, endcap, and wire rack. While it’s possible a writer can make a career and even a success in NY, there are no slam dunks.
As for Amazon Encore, any comparison with “real publishers” is apples/oranges. Amazon is the single best entity in the world at selling books right now. They could turn anyone into a bestseller if they so chose. I don’t know about 2013–heck, all ebooks could be free by then–but right now, most writers would do better to get paid every month by their readers.
Scott Nicholson
Thanks for chiming in Scott.
James Patterson really is a marvel of the Corporate Publishing Era – a writer who doesn’t even write his books
. He should probably write a Zen Buddhist book on how to win at something without really doing it.
The most interesting part to me of your comment is this –
It makes me wonder whether this was somewhat by design. Or whether it was simply a result of market forces.