Optimistic Kindle Sales Forecasts, Free Kindle Book, Kindle Book Deals

First, for your Kindle, some kindle book deals and free kindle books.

Skulduggery Pleasant: Scepter of the Ancients by Derek Landy. Price: $0. Genre: Children’s Books, Grades 5 to 8, Spine-Chilling Horror. Rated 4.5 stars on 49 reviews. 416 pages.

Hay House (a Publisher) has a sale with 100+ books at $1.99. If you go to the link you will also find a few free books and some $1 books. In case the link doesn’t work – just search for ‘Hay House’ in the Kindle Store.

An example – Left to Tell: Discovering God Amidst the Rwandan Holocaust by Immaculee Ilibagiza. Price: $1.99. Genre: Surviving, Faith, First-person Account. Rated 5 stars on 492 reviews. 215 pages.

Kindle Daily Deal – The Dead Saint (Bishop Lynn Peterson) by Marilyn Brown Oden. Price: $1.99. Rated 4.5 stars on 23 reviews.

The Complete Wizard of Oz Collection (With Active Table of Contents) by L. Frank Baum (Published by Bedford Park Books). Price: 95 cents. Genre: Not in Kansas, Classic, Entire Series in One Volume. Rated 4 stars on 9 reviews. It’s 3 MB in size. There are 14 books included:

The Wonderful Wizard of Oz
The Marvelous Land of Oz
Ozma of Oz
Dorothy and the Wizard in Oz
The Road to Oz
The Emerald City of Oz
The Patchwork Girl of Oz
Tik-Tok of Oz
The Scarecrow of Oz
Rinkitink in Oz
The Lost Princess of Oz
The Tin Woodman of Oz
The Magic of Oz
Glinda of Oz

Why I Love Singlehood by Elisa Lorello and Sarah Girell. Price: $1.99. Genre: Contemporary Romance. Rated 4 stars on 40 reviews. 294 pages.

Next, we have a report from the Kindle Press Conference which most of us probably didn’t get a chance to attend.

A Kindle Fan’s Report from the Front Row at Amazon’s NYC Press Conference by Len Edgerly. Price: $1. Genre: Kindle, new Kindle. Rated 5 stars on 2 reviews. It’s a 30 page article.

Len runs the excellent Kindle Chronicles – The Kindle Chronicles – The Friday Podcast All About Your Kindle. Well worth checking out.

Here’s a snippet of what the above book/report is about -

I traveled by train to New York City worried that Amazon executives might get so excited about their shiny new color tablet that they would forget to keep improving the monochrome e-ink Kindles.

In the event, I need not have worried.  Jeff Bezos started the press conference by telling the Kindle story in a way that touched me as highly personal and revealing. Come join me in the front row, and I’ll show you what I mean.

That brings us to some very optimistic Kindle Sales Forecasts.

23.5 million Kindles and 15.3 million Kindle Fires in 2012?

Mr. Jeff Bezos is probably hoping that Barclays’ Kindle sales predictions come true.

Barclays (in a research note) makes some very optimistic Kindle Sales forecasts -

  1. 4.5 million Kindle Fire tablets sold in 2011.
  2. 15.3 million Kindle Fire Tablets sold in 2012. Includes both 7″ Fire and 10″ Fire (predicted to be released in early 2012).
  3. 23.5 million Kindle eReaders.
  4. Device and content Sales will hit $9.4 billion. That’s a crazy figure.
  5. It also believes Amazon will release the 10″ Kindle Fire for $299 and that it’s taking a loss on the 7″ Kindle Fire.

Those are some pretty bold estimates.

It’s interesting that in 2007 Analysts thought Amazon would be lucky if it were able to sell 40,000 Kindles total (before the Kindle died out). Now, in 2011, analysts are predicting 23.5 million Kindle device sales in 2012.

16 Responses

  1. “It’s interesting that in 2007 Analysts thought Amazon would be lucky if it were able to sell 40,000 Kindles total (before the Kindle died out).”

    Interesting because their report to shareholders from 2008 shows an aggregate net sales of just over US$19 billion (over all divisions, all areas).

    If Barclay’s predictions are on the mark, that lowly Kindle group will bring over US$6.7 Billion in Kindle sales alone in 2012. To get that I figured an even split for 7″ and 10″ Fires in, for an average per each Fire price of $250, and an average (guesstimated) Kindle Reader price of $125, averaged over all models.

    Upwards of 7 billion is pretty good for a product category that was expected to fizzle…
    :) Tony

    • Yup. It’s amazing how this category that just didn’t exist is suddenly tens of millions of eReaders … and as you point out – $7 billion a year.

      • Being a $7B market is a fairly meaningless number though — the real issue is how much are they making in *profit*, not revenue. Or if they’re making any profit at all, even on the non-WSO versions.

        It’s fairly clear that HP could easily have had a $10B-a-year market selling TouchPads at $100 a piece. They’d just have lost 20-30 billion a year doing it.

        In other words — yes there is demand, but is there enough demand at the price point they really should have, and if there isn’t, how long can amazon cover the losses, hoping to eventually become the WalkMan or iPod & iTunes of e-readers?

      • HP’s situation was quite a bit different from Amazon’s: they didn’t have the big eTailer store that Amazon has. Amazon’s strategy is more akin to razor blade marketing: give the shavers away — make it up selling blades. Perhaps a better model is one (ironically) right out of HP’s playbook for inkjet printers: sell the printers at ridiculously low prices — make your profits selling ink cartridges.

        Amazon will sell all of their EBR devices at or below cost and make the difference up on sales of books, music, movies. They can probably do that — until the cows come home.

      • In that sense, it’s much closer to console gaming than they are to razorblades or ink. The printer business has for the most part moved away from expensive ink, partially due to ink refillers and refurb cartridge sales, and partly because customers just plain don’t like it. Console gaming is under severe pressures, partly from piracy, partly from competition (particularly casual gaming competition). Only the razor blade example is still really going strong — and even there the competition from more normally priced house-brand blades is very strong.

        Loss-on-hardware-profit-on-accessories is essentially a business model killed by the internet. People *know* which things the producer makes a loss on, so they can buy real ones for, and which ones are the profit center, so they can go to a chinese knockoff webshop and buy fakes for nothing — even selling them on to people less canny.

        That’s also why Amazon historically hasn’t used it. What Amazon does is an entirely different loss-up-front strategy — they take losses early in the timeline and compensate by profits later in the timeline, after people are addicted, and once they are big enough to cut their wholesale costs to the bone. That, I think, is the one they’re going for. They *aren’t* making much profit if any on Amazon Prime streaming (that’s probably a net loss), they probably aren’t even making all that much money off Amazon App Store, Movies, and MP3s. They might be making a net profit off of the Kindle Store, but even that is not a given right now.

      • Well, I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree about business models here — I don’t it the way you do.

  2. There is going to be a 10″ kindle fire for $299????? I haven’t heard about it before!!! Where do I pre-order??????????????

    • There are just rumors at this point – very strong ones though. DigiTimes, Barclays Research, lots of other sources.

      It’s supposed to be released in early 2012 based on how Kindle Fire does (and by early signs Kindle Fire is doing really well).

    • As has been mentioned here and elsewhere Digitimes (which keeps track of orders for these kinds of devices from manufactures in the far east) has been reporting a large order for a 10″ tablet for Amazon. Based on the timing of the order, some are even forecasting a 2011 delivery. That’s not going to happen — given the announcements already made, and the scheduling exigencies of the Christmas selling season.

      The next big event of the technology announcement calendar is CES 2012 in LV, NV in January. Many players (like Intel, Samsung, but not Amazon) will announce product there. Amazon traditionally has not announced product at CES. I would expect their announcement (if any) would come a bit later.

      A couple of sources have said that while Amazon has a 10″ product under development, they are unsure whether they will release it. I guess they’ll want to gauge the sales response to the KT & KF; see what the NC2 looks like, and (most importantly) what the iPad3 contains (rumored to have a stunning 2048×1536 9.7″ display).

      • Is it an order though, or a Statement of Intent, or what? It seems early for an actual order — especially when combined with the wisdom that they’re not even sure they want to start selling it yet.

        I’m practically salivating at the prospect of a large-format IPS tablet with ppi approaching my iPhone 4, incidentally. I just hope they’re not going to make that into a more expensive version. I suspect that they’re going to retain the iPad 2 as a low-end, cheaper version, instead. But I could see them retaining A5 to save on costs if they have to deliver that screen at the same price point.

        Well, whatever happens, with Apple, Amazon, and the occasional Android/linux-based oddball in the mix (Also see: KDE Plasma Active One), and Win8 coming in a few years…. interesting times are ahead.

  3. Really appreciate your daily emails, Switch11. :-) Thanks for keeping up with all this for us.

  4. […] would like to leave a review, I’d appreciate it! You can read about it a A Kindle World and Abhi’s blog. If you have an idea for a Kindle article, you should buy Kate Harper’s How to Publish and […]

  5. I think these estimates are aggressive, but achievable. I find the content number a bit harder to swallow than the device prices. I think the $299 (or even a bit lower $289, $279) are where the 10″ Kfire must be priced — especially given the totally out of whack price for the KDX (which I’m assuming will be killed when the 10″ comes out).

    • I do hope the DX will get at least one more update — but it seems like the price points just aren’t there for 10″ eInk, mainly I suspect because the production lines are just about completely set up for 6″ screens.

      If a DX 3 had a screen simply the size of two regular 6″ eInk screens side by side, 800×1200 pixels @ 8.6″, you might be able to produce it at a decent price, and end up with a $200 DX3. Not quite as big a screen as the DX&DXG, but better for textbooks than a regular Kindle. It’s the Hardback Kindle where all the normal ones are Paperback sized. Make it Touch and tabletize it so that you really use it in both orientations, and you’ve got something that will really handle textbooks.

      • It does seem that Amazon has decided to not aggressively pursue the educational, professional, research market — the original target of the DX. It’s ironic really — as that market (at least for books) is larger than the mass market “trade” publishing segment ($12-13Bn to $10-11Bn for “trade”).

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