Kindle Fire 2 in 1st half 2012, Kindle Fire might sell 4-5 million units in 2011

Kindle Fire seems to be doing so well that Amazon has kicked off production of Kindle Fire 2.

DigiTimes claims that Foxconn (maker of iPhones and iPads and Kindles; torturer of its own workers) has landed orders for assembling Kindle Fire 2. Kindle Fire 2 release date will supposedly be in the first half of 2012.

Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry) reportedly has secured orders from Amazon for assembling second-generation Kindle Fire tablet PCs, with shipments to begin in the first half of 2012, according to Taiwan-based makers. In response, Foxconn declined to comment.

The sources pointed out that the first-generation Kindle Fire is handled by Quanta Computer, but Foxconn has already successfully gained orders for the second-generation model.

Kindle Fire was produced/assembled by Quanta Computer.

Kindle Fire must be selling well for Amazon to already sign a deal for Kindle Fire 2. It must be selling particularly well for Amazon to target the first half of 2012 for the Kindle Fire 2 release.

How well is Kindle Fire selling?

Kindle Fire might sell 4 to 5 million units in 2011

DigiTimes thinks 4 million Kindle Fires will be sold by end 2011

Sources said sales of Kindle Fire may reach four million units by the end of 2011, which may contribute to shipment growth of its suppliers.

Meanwhile, market observers expect Amazon to drop the 7-inch Kindle Fire’s price from the current US$199 after the release of the 10-inch version in 2012.

Given that ‘leaked’ inventory records show sales of 50,000 Kindle Fires a day, it’s not a stretch to say that 2 million Kindle Fires might sell in 2011.

4 million still seems a high estimate. However, Analysts mostly agree.

A Rodman & Renshaw analyst lifted his estimate from 4 million Kindle Fire sales in 2011 to 5 million Kindle Fire sales. He points out that the monthly run rate (based on ‘leaked’ inventory records) is over a million Kindle Fire sales a month. He also points out that Amazon is constrained by display availability.

Forrester has also predicted Kindle Fire sales of 5 million in 2011.

Barclays analyst Antony DiCelemto threatens to destroy analysts’ years of built-up undependability by predicting a very realistic 2 million Kindle Fire sales in 2011. He also predicts 6.4 million Kindle Fire sales in 2012, and a further 1.5 million sales of Kindle Fire 10″.

Why no love for Asus Transformer and Nook Color?

It’s quite remarkable that in all the iPad and Kindle Fire hysteria everyone is forgetting two Tablets that have been quite successful i.e. Nook Color and Asus Transformer.

Transformer is supposedly selling half a million units a month. Nook Color has sold millions of units. Why don’t they qualify as successes?

For that matter, why is everyone ignoring a potential Nook Color 2?

There seem to be two fallacies that the Press and Analysts are wedded to –

  1. The $199 Tablets couldn’t possibly affect sales of the iPad.
  2. The $199 Tablet market is automatically handed over to Kindle Fire.

In this stark black and white world there are no shades of grey (obviously, since no eReaders are allowed to exist). The Tablet market is magically carved into two sections – High End and Low End. Apple is then handed over the High End market which not only is permanently exclusive to Apple but also immune to whatever happens in the low-end Tablet market. The Low End Tablet market is handed over to Amazon even before anyone has seen what Kindle Fire is like.

All the Kindle Fire sales estimates (both ones for 5 million Kindle Fire sales in 2011 and ones for 10 million+ Kindle Fire sales in 2012) assume that no other low-priced Tablets exist. They do, and they will play a role. Sales of either Kindle Fire or iPad are going to be affected – Probably both.

7 thoughts on “Kindle Fire 2 in 1st half 2012, Kindle Fire might sell 4-5 million units in 2011”

  1. i have an asus transformer and i have to say its the most incredible little piece of tech ive ever owned. i absolutely LOVE the thing. with the keyboard, its ideal for coding on the go (mostly in a shell over ssh) and also serves well as a neat little entertainment center with a beautiful screen and battery life that is almost impossible to believe. i typically get 15 hours of real use (not just music, but video or gaming or working) out of it per charge. it hasnt replaced my galaxy tab 7″, which will always have a place when i need more portability, and nothing beats my kindle for reading… but i dont regret a single nickel of the $400 i spend for the transformer and keyboard dock.

  2. I don’t think the Transformer is doing half a mill a month actually — the estimates I saw the other day based on google’s figures say there are about 3.4 million android 3.x tablets out there — in total. The Xoom also has to be in there somewhere.

    Incidentally, you do realize that “tortures its own workers” is pretty much hyperbole pulled out of your ass?

  3. I think they ignore the Nook because it isn’t a tablet unless you root it. Not hard to do, but out of the box it doesn’t qualify.

    1. I think they don’t because it’s awfully inconvenient to step away from the storyline of iPad is the only Tablet that sells. Was just reding on TechMeme that last quarter there were 4.1 million Android Tablets sold and 10 to 11 million iPads. That seems pretty different from the assertion that just 1 million Android Tablets sell and iPad has 90% of the market.

      Looking forward to seeing Kindle Fire and Nook Color 2 burn the iPad alive.

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