1. A Kindle focused app called Kindling, which Apple rejected.
2. Making $700 to $900 a day from free public domain books.
3. Lots of really cool optimizations and App Store secrets.

It also suggests that ‘iPhone is the future of reading’ is quite an exaggeration.

Amazing Story of the $700 a day #1 iPhone Book App, and the Kindle Angle

Kindling – An App for Kindle Owners that didn’t make it

Colin Plamondon and Joel of SpreadSong were initially making an app for Kindle owners (story courtesy Mixergy).

1. It was named Kindling.
2. It would let Kindle owners browse through a list of free books from Gutenberg and other free book sites.
3. Users could then email the books of their choice to their Kindle (at the cost of 10 cents per MB) or to another email address and upload it to Kindle themselves.

However, things didn’t go so well -

1. Kindling wasn’t approved for 4 months.
2. Apple had concerns that since the app was using Amazon’s messaging system Amazon might pull the plug.
3. Colin says it was a totally legitimate concern. He seems to take the delay and drama well.
4. After 6 months (a week ago) the app got rejected.

Wait a minute – Weren’t we talking about the #1 Paid iPhone Book App?

Yes, and here’s the good part of the story – There was another app .

Taking Free Books to #1 in Book Apps

At the end of June 2009, SpreadSong launched an App, called Free Books, that let users download and read any of 23,000+ free public domain titles.  

It was $1.99 and let users read public domain books.

1. It started off slow, and SpreadSong were making $20 a day off of it for the first month. That’s 10 sales a day. 
2. As various tweaks and improvements were made and some very smart marketing strategies were used (read the iPhone app marketing strategy guide from Colin) sales and sales rank improved.
3. The Free Books App hit the Top 100, and then the Top 50, and then the Top 20.
4. Which brings us to right now and its current status as the #1 Paid App in the Books section of the App Store.

#1 means $700 to $900 a day in revenue share for SpreadSong. That means 500 to 650 purchases a day.

Numbers, Figures and Magic – Sales of Book Apps

We finally get insight into what sales in the Books Section of the App Store are -

1. The #1 app is getting 500 to 650 sales a day. This is from right now (literally – the interview was 21st December).
2. The #4 spot gets around 400-500 sales a day.  
3. The #10 spot gets approximately 250-300 sales a day. 
4. The #20 spot gets around 100-150 sales a day.
5. Weekend sales are much, much higher than weekdays.

That’s the first time we have a listing of what each sales position in the Paid Book Apps section of the App Store means.

It should also help dispel the confusion that book apps are bigger than games – the top game gets over 10,000 sales a day.

To be absolutely clear - The top-selling Paid Game sells more than the Top 20 Paid Book Apps combined.

Would people please stop claiming that Book Apps are taking over the App Store.

Free Book Apps sell a lot more (surprise, surprise)

The $1.99 Free Books App has sold 60,000 total units so far. Meanwhile, SpreadSong estimate that there have been between 2 million and 5 million downloads of the Kindle.

iPhone Analytics firm had estimated 3 million people reading ebooks on the iPhone so that range i.e. 2 million to 5 million is quite reasonable.

Kindle for iPhone, Stanza, and the B&N eReader App dominate the Free Book Apps list. Kobo is making its way up the charts.

SpreadSong are choosing Palm over Android

The next destination for SpreadSong is not Android.

1. Colin talked about how people with Android phones don’t buy stuff. He basically mentions that there are a lot of open source people and that means low sales for Paid Apps.
2. He’s heard that the top paid apps on Android earn just $500 to $1,000 a month. Perhaps this was for Book Apps.
3. Meanwhile, Palm does well despite its miniscule market share because it has small business users and an audience that is much more likely to actually buy stuff.
4. He’s heard that the top 3 paid apps on Palm are making $5,000 a month. Again, this is probably for Book Apps.

All that means that SpreadSong’s Free Books App is headed for Palm and not Android. This echoes what GameLoft is doing i.e. ditching Android.

In the works - Free Audiobooks App based on Librivox

SpreadSong’s next project is going to be an App that plays free audiobooks from Librivox. There is actually an app like this in the App Store already and it’s doing quite well – it’s currently #3.

Also interesting was one of their past projects, Book Blog, which took blogs and turned them into books you could read in order.

Let’s move on to analyzing all of this and some marketing tips from Colin.

App Store Insights

Top 10 Marketing, General Tips for iPhone Apps

Do read the post and if you develop apps do see the interview. These are 10 of the most interesting things -

1. Consider focusing on topping a category chart and making $8K to $15K a month instead of the $100K a month stories the press like to focus on.
2. It’s not ‘get rich quick’ – it’s slow consistent work with lots of improvements to the app, lots of tweaks, and so forth.
3. The Top 100 overall list is dominated by companies with marketing budgets ($3K to $5K a day per app) and brand recognition. SpreadSong pointed out Red Laser as one of the exceptions.
4. Always focus on out-converting the app in front of you. Reaching the Top 25 in a category is crucial.
5. The App title, the app icon, and the price are the three critical elements you control.
6. Pick a name that describes the product.
7. The most important things, in order of achieving them, are to get into the Top 100, then to get into the Top 25, and then to get into the Top 4.
8. The iPhone shows only 4 apps at a time so the top 4 spots are critical. 
9. Use a description that includes the right keywords, keywords that you’ll get traffic from, and also include names of the top apps in your niche or apps that Apple advertises.
10. Reviews are crucial to getting sales – the more reviews the better, the more good reviews the better.

Thanks to Colin for sharing this. It’s a ton of valuable data.

Perhaps iPhone isn’t the Future of Reading

iPhone might not be the future of reading

The top 20 paid iPhone Book Apps are -

1. 7 public domain content compilations (including 2 audiobook compilations). All $1 to $2. 
2. 4 Bibles or Bible Apps. 
3. 6 comics.
4. A game, a Love Dare flash cards app, and an iPhone manual.

There is not a single book in the Top 20 iPhone Book Apps.

• That means, given on what Free Books sales tell us, there is no new book being sold on the iPhone selling 150 or more copies a day.
• In fact you only have the 4 twilight books and a Vook amongst the Top 100 Paid iPhone Book Apps.
• There are no other new books at all.

The grand ‘iPhone is the future of reading’ hypothesis is just that – a hypothesis.

People who paint the iPhone as the future of reading are misinterpreting

What are the numbers you keep hearing -

1. 3 million ebook readers on the iPhone.
2. More iPhone Book Apps than any other type of apps.
3. iPhone Book Apps are the future.

Well, what’s the reality?

1. Zero actual new books in the Top 20.
2. Only 4 Twilight Books and 1 Vook in the Top 100.
3. The #1 Books App is selling 600 copies a day and it’s all public domain titles.
4. No new book is selling 150 copies a day in the App Store.

3 million people reading books on the iPhone and can’t get even a single book into the Top 20 Book Apps.

On the iPhone, except for Twilight, new published books may as well not exist.

Where does that leave us? Dependent on Kindle and B&N

The fact that no new books are selling means we are left with just three possibilities -

1. iPhone owners are doing all their reading through Kindle for iPhone, Stanza and B&N eReader. 
2. iPhone owners are only reading public domain titles.
3. iPhone owners are not really reading much.

Regardless of which one it is, the key takeaway is that Publishers who think they can sell Books as Apps in the App Store are mistaken. It hasn’t happened so far and it might never happen.

Apple seem to have set their sights firmly on the Kindle and the associated revenue streams.

Amazon Kindle Vs Apple Reader – Is it going to be 2010′s main storyline?

Why would we think Kindle Vs Apple Reader even before the launch of Apple’s JesusTablet?

Because of two huge developments that might be linked -

Harper Collins, Hachette, Simon & Schuster start delaying eBook releases

First, we had Simon & Schuster talk about delaying some eBook releases by 3-4 months. Then Hachette jumped in.

Now, Crain’s New York reports that Harper Collins have jumped in too -

HarperCollins, which has already delayed the e-book of its No. 1 best seller Going Rogue, by Sarah Palin, will start to “window” e-book editions this winter, starting with five to 10 titles per month, a spokeswoman said.

HarperCollins also talk about releasing enhanced eBook editions that would be published at the same time as Hardcovers and priced the same i.e. hardcover prices.

Initially this seems to be all about Publishers trying to find ways to kill eReaders. However, consider the other big news this week.

Rumors of a $1,000 Apple Reader Tablet that gives Book Publishers 70%

This time it’s an analyst, Oppenheimer’s Yair Reiner, and he’s not shy about making big predictions -

1. Apple is offering a 70% share to Publishers. Reiner goes as far as to say that Apple has been approaching US book publishers.
2. Reiner thinks the Apple Reader Tablet will become Apple’s flagship product and will save the newspaper industry.
3. Price point around $1,000.
4. 10.1 inch touch screen - Low Temperature Polycrystalline Silicon LCD (like the iPhone).
5. Apple will hit mass market production by February.
6. A March or April release is possible.
7. Reiner thinks Apple will be manufacturing 1 million Apple tablets a month.

One interesting tidbit is that Amazon offers publishers 50% and bumps it up to 70% if they give Amazon exclusivity.

All this is from Fortune via ZDNet.

Are the eBook delays and the Apple Reader release date linked?

Probably.

If Publishers feel they can promote the Apple’s Reader (aka JesusTablet) instead of the Kindle and get a 70% cut instead of a mere 50% cut, then their recent madness would make sense -

1. Delay eBook releases and reduce the lead Amazon gets.  
2. Hold off on lots of eBook releases and bring them all out with the Apple Reader.
3. Force Amazon to offer a 70% cut too.

Amazon is in trouble if this happens – they have to pay Publishers a cut and also have to pay for bandwidth. Apple, thanks to the data plans that customers sign up for with their 2 year contracts, don’t have any bandwidth costs.

What do you think - Could we be in for a big battle between Amazon’s Kindle and Apple’s iWhatever?

Is 2010 going to be all about Amazon Kindle Vs Apple Reader and Publishers?

While Kindle Vs Nook is the flavor of the month there is a very high chance that everything changes with the arrival of an Apple Reader.

Here are the competing storylines for 2010, the Year of the eReader,   

1. The Kindle being dominant.
2. Kindle Vs Apple Reader. 
3. Kindle Vs Nook.
4. Kindle Vs Apple Reader Vs Nook Vs Sony.

My money’s on it being all about Kindle Vs Apple Reader (with Publishers on Apple’s side).

• Nook is a solid entry – However, it has a lot of fixes and updates to do.
• Sony seem to have lost their way completely.
• The other new entrants don’t have enough trust with customers.
• That only leaves the Apple Reader and Publishers desperate to fight Amazon.

The delay in ebook prices and Apple’s imminent Reader Tablet make sense together.

2010 is going to be the year of the eReader – whoever wins the Kindle Vs Apple Reader battle is going to win the war.

It makes you wonder -

1. What if the Apple Slate keeps getting delayed or never releases? We have been expecting it for over a year now.
2. What if the Apple Slate is priced too high? 

Mike Elgan lists 7 reasons an eReader is a lousy gift idea.

He focuses almost entirely on delaying gratification and hoping for a better deal or a better product – a misleading argument because if you followed that stream of thought you would NEVER buy anything.  

Mike Elgans’ first reason for not buying an eReader is quite predictably Apple -

Apple might release an Apple Slate or Tablet Reader in the middle of next year.

Here’s a question though -

How many of the people who wait 5-6 months for the Apple Slate will be able to afford it?

It’s a crucial question because Apple makes aspirational products.

What is an Aspirational Product?

Once again we call on Wikipedia to enlighten us -

In consumer marketing, an aspirational brand (or product) means a large segment of its exposure audience wishes to own it, but for economic reasons cannot.

… To keep the premium level of a brand high, the consumption portion of the audience should not exceed 30% of the aspirational audience.

The key thing to note is that products don’t have to be very high-end to be aspirational – as long as there are customers for whom it is just out of reach its aspirational.

1. For people with a hard $100 budget the $150 dollars eReaders could be something they aspire to. 
2. For people with a hard $200 budget the $259 eReaders might be what they aspire to.

Consider how Apple positions its products – always at the higher end, always a bit exclusive, always a bit expensive. 

You have to ask yourself -

Why wouldn’t the Apple Slate be an Aspirational product?

It doesn’t benefit Apple to make the Apple Slate a $250 product. Instead they’ll go for -

1. A $500 to $800 product.
2. A $100-$300 price with a data plan.

The total cost of the latter would be colossal – However, there’s nothing wrong with taking on some debt – It’s not like we just had thebiggest debt fuelled crisis since the Great Depression.

Basically, if you’re fiscally responsible, there’s a high chance the Apple Slate will be an aspirational product.

Why wait for something you probably can’t afford?

Obviously, there’s the 30% of the exposure market who can afford it.

However, the remaining 70% have two interesting choices -

1. Apple Slate comes out and you realize you can’t afford the total cost of ownership and you buy a Kindle or Nook anyways. 
2. Slate comes out and you spend more than you can afford just to be able to ’possess’ it.

The money is in aspirational products. That’s why Apple has just 10% or so of the PC market and still makes 30-40% of the profits.

Is any company going to challenge Apple with an Aspirational eReader?

The really funny part is that it’s not even possible -

1. Amazon and WalMart are fighting over book prices – there goes their ‘exclusiveness’. 
2. Sony Reader and Nook are fighting Kindle on price. They lose their branding.  
3. Microsoft and Dell will have tablets – However, they’re associated with low-priced Windows PCs.
4. Asus and Acer and netbook companies sell $300 netbooks. How can they get away with $600 eReaders?

Every other company is going for the low-price, high volume, eReader market.

Here’s my prediction -

Apple are going to sell a $700-$800 Slate eReader. It’ll be $300 or so after subsidies (with data plans).

They are going to capture 90% of the top end of the eReader market.

Apple’s hold of the top end of the eReader market will earn them 50% of the total eReader profits.

Reuters reports from Barcelona where Alexandre de Rochefort of game company GameLoft says GameLoft and other game developers are cutting back on making Android games -

“We are selling 400 times more games on iPhone than on Android,” Rochefort said.

On Android nobody is making significant revenue.

400 more times sales. That’s the difference between a Good Channel and a Mediocre Channel.

Even if you take the extreme case that -

1. There are 50 million people who buy games for their iPhone. 
2. There are just 1 million people who buy games for their Android device.

You still get that iPhone owners buy 8 times more games than Android owners. That means that even if Android hypothetically catches up with the iPhone it’ll still be a far inferior channel for selling games.

Android is a channel for People who expect free

Look at all the arguments from people who are pro-Android -

1. iPhone makes it really difficult for developers to have freedom.
2. Android will be open.
3. There is no control over Android.
4. iPhone won’t let Google run free voice apps.

These are all people who want things to be open and free. This mentality manifests in every aspect.

It should be no surprise that GameLoft is selling 400 times more games on the iPhone. People on Android just don’t expect to pay.

This is not about right or wrong or favorites – It’s what channel you should choose if you are a content creator who wants to earn money for your efforts.

Why Android is a poor channel for Selling Games

Consider the different factors in play here -

1. Open is generally linked to free.
2. Google Voice and other apps reduce the amount you pay for calls.
3. Google Maps and Free Turn by Turn Navigation means you get GPS for free.
4. The more open a platform the tougher to create a defensible revenue stream.

Android will attract people who want open and free or cheap.

They’re just not the type of customers who’ll spend a lot. It’s a channel of mediocre intent.  

Consider this comment on Phandroid.com (commenter #6, regarding the GameLoft statement) -

With almost exclusively free apps (paid for 3 and returned 1) on my droid, I’m making my iPhone friends drool and seriously reconsider their choice in phone. 

Well thought out freeware beats commercial software 9 times out of 10.

That really is the type of customer going to Droid. People who think freeware beats commercial software 9 times out of 10.

Google’s strategy of Free always looms over Android

Consider GPS navigation –  

1. For the iPhone some of the top grossing apps are GPS navigation apps.
2. For the Android GPS navigation is free.

You could go into Android and create a super viable revenue stream and tomorrow Google might decide that they would rather sell it for free and make money off of advertising.

That’s what they’re doing with Google Voice, Google Real Estate (still under wraps – sort of) and Google Navigation.

There just isn’t the same incentive.

The much-maligned App Store Review process ensures quality control

While Android seems appealing to developers because there is no app approval process, it’s terrible for customers.

The review process might mess up 5-10% of the time and keep out great apps – However, no one is looking out for the 90% to 95% of the time that it keeps out garbage.

The iPhone does quality control that Android just doesn’t have.

iPhone is a channel of good intent

There are lots of filters -

1. Apple’s branding is higher end.
2. The entry price is high (except the $99 iPhone) and the voice and data plans are pretty high too.
3. Apple has created a channel where people buy Apps and buy lots of Apps.
4. People are trained to pay for stuff thanks to iTunes.
5. The fact that it’s a walled garden keeps open/free people away.

These are all good filters if you want to sell things. People are already paying to get the exclusivity (or illusion of) of Apple.

They are paying for expensive data and voice plans.

At that point $1, $2, and even $10 apps seem reasonable to iPhone owners.

Which developer in their right mind would leave the iPhone to focus on a channel where customers expect free?

Finally, 9 to 5 mac asks - If Droid is selling so well, why are Verizon and Motorola discounting it everywhere? (Dell $120, Amazon $150).

1. The developer who coded Facebook for iPhone (while working at Facebook) left because his Three20 framework used private API calls and apps using his framework got rejected because of that. 
2. Second gear’s Justin Williams left because Apple didn’t approve Google Voice and he makes a lot more from the Mac software he writes. 
3. Rogue Amoeba had a tough time getting a fix/update approved because they used images of a Mac to show the iPhone was connected to a Mac.

While these may or may not be valid reasons, and three defections certainly don’t warrant writing a ‘developers fleeing App Store platform’ article, it brings up two very interesting questions -

1. Are web and software developers too idealistic and simply can’t handle a company (any company) being dominant?  
2. Are people forgetting (or conveniently ignoring) all the advantages the App Store provides them?

Let’s start with the latter first since it’ll give me time to think up something politically correct for the former question.

How can developers find reasons to be mad with a company that gets them 70% of sales?

Think about the effort from the developer’s side -

1. You write an app for the iPhone.
2. You work on marketing.
3. You submit it and after an admittedly long-winded approval process you get it out there.

After that – all you have to do is marketing. Here’s what you get in return -

1. An audience of tens of millions of users that is growing all the time.
2. An audience of good intent – People who actually pay.  
3. The opportunity to sell your app around the world. Developers have no idea how big of a deal this is.
4. 70% of revenues being deposited in your bank account.
5. The delivery, the updates, everything handled for you.

We have developers complaining about a 2-4 week, somewhat arbitrary review process – Before the app store you had to get publisher and distributor arrangements and put in so much more effort and let’s not even get started on trying to distribute internationally.

It’s now so easy that even I am putting together some apps – its letting a lot of people create apps and a lot of people access these new apps.

Who cares if the review part is complicated – every other part is very, very smooth.

Single Biggest Thing – You get 70%. Ask an author who is getting 15% royalties what that means.

Are Developers Idealistic or do they just hate #1 companies?

There’s no politically correct way to say this.

There just seems to be a trigger built into the Internet to hate companies that become dominant.

1. Microsoft is obviously hated.
2. Apple is becoming evil because their app review process is arbitrary. Perhaps it has more to do with Apple’s dominance with Apps.
3. Google will be next. As soon as Google gets 80% market share a whole new generation of developers will hate it.

There seems to be a cycle -

1. ‘Idealistic, open-minded, free spirited’ developers hate the big company – Evil Goliath.
2. They support poor little David – secretly hoping it can take down evil Goliath.
3. If David wins and becomes dominant then it becomes Goliath and developers find reasons to hate Goliath.

There are only two possibilities -

1. Even the most pure-hearted David becomes evil as soon as it gets power. 
2. It’s a reflection of some human instinct to ensure no entity becomes too powerful.

If you doubt 2. ask yourself how you would behave if you were in Apple’s shoes – Imagine what it would be like and ask yourself what you’d do to keep the channel intact and viable.

Perhaps Apple is the beautiful company and its products are the best only as long as there’s evil Microsoft lording over it.

As soon as Apple become dominant in Mobile Apps, we need another David (which Google is eager to provide) that we can crusade behind.

Idealism and the Internet

As Wikipedia run a fund-raising drive (again, this time it’s for forever) there are a few simple questions that need to be asked -

1. Why are so many people on the Internet afraid to make money when they deserve it?
2. Why are people upset when a company wins the race and cashes in?
3. Why do these ‘free’ people want others to follow their beliefs?

The biggest confusion in my mind is why idealistic people want other people to follow their ideals.

Is the anger with the App Store misplaced?

Take Second Gear. There are two reasons for why they left the App Store -

1. Google Voice being rejected. 
2. Making 25 times more on the Mac than on the iPhone.

Why so much concern about one billion dollar profits a month company not letting another billion dollar profits a month company exploit its channel?

Is developer’s idealism blinding them to a few basic facts -

• Having a few (or quite a few) false negatives and rejecting deserving apps is better than letting a few very dangerous apps in. 
• That if the channel is compromised it hurts Apple AND developers. 
• Perhaps the App Store isn’t the channel for them.

What this is really about

It’s about a mixture of two things -

1. A ’Free Everything, Do anything’ culture that the Internet fosters. 
2. Not understanding Win-Win.

Please, think about it a bit before you choose to disagree.

Free Everything, Do Anything

Everything is free online. There’s free speech and free things and you don’t have to pay and you can do whatever you want.

The Internet is consumer rights run amok. It’s exactly what you’d expect from a platform put together by Idealistic Universities that think everyone else is good and pure hearted (for the most part) like they are.

People indoctrinated in this culture don’t know how to react when they run into a wall called commercial reality.

There are two stark extremes here -

1. You can be Wikipedia and be asking for donations.
2. You can be Apple or Microsoft and have 50 billion in assets.

Either path is OK. You just have to accept what path a company chooses and not judge them and not want them to follow your ideals and what would make you happy.

Free Everything, Do Anything is not the only way to be, and you can’t force it on anyone.

Win-Win and accepting that you aren’t going to get everything according to your wishes

At some point it becomes a bit much. Manton Reece thinks there are only two possible solutions -

1. Accept all applications. 
2. Allow applications to be installed on the iPhone without being in the App Store. 

Are you kidding me?

Apple built the iPhone after an incredible amount of effort and took a huge risk. They hit the big time. 

They don’t owe developers anything.

Yet – they are offering developers 70%.

Apple have a platform that provides customers, a channel, 100+ countries, distribution, everything. Plus they give developers 70% of revenue.

Developers still find reasons to complain because Apple is overzealous about protecting its channel.

Apple, Amazon, Microsoft - all companies that just can’t win. Every company that becomes much, much better than its competition falls into the same ‘Evil’ category.

Here are the actual facts in the article -

Facts related to Books 

1. The number of books released in the App Store surged from 10% of Apps in July 2009 to 20% of Apps in October 2009. This is not sales. This is how many books were made available as apps.
2. Number of Books released was higher than number of Games released (in September and October).
3. In August Flurry had, based on their research, claimed that there were 3 million eBook readers on the iPhone. We’ll consider it as a fact (lets assume their research was right).

Facts related to Nintendo

Just one – Nintendo’s profits fell 50% in Q3, 2009 and Flurry write that Nintendo cited the iPhone as one of the reasons. Here’s the actual text - 

… since Apple launched the App Store in July 2008, game developers have flocked to the iPhone, creating an alternative for consumers to the leading handheld gaming platform, Nintendo DS.

In Nintendo’s October 29 earnings call, the company cited iPhone competition against its DS as one of the reasons profits fell by more than half last quarter, from 133 billion yen a year prior to 64 billion yen, or $709 million.

Everything else in the article is just assumption.

• There are ZERO sales figures for book apps.
• There are zero numbers from publishers or authors.
• There is also close to zero analysis and little insight.

Assumption 1: iPhone Games hurt Nintendo.

iPhone might not have disrupted Nintendo’s handheld position

Flurry is assuming that the iPhone, and not the general malaise in games (or any other reason such as the PlayStation 3 Price Cut), is the main reason Nintendo’s profits fell.

Here’s what Nintendo’s Iwata had to say -

1.  “The Wii has stalled,” Iwata said. “Games of high demand could not be continuously released and the good mood has chilled.”

2. The mood of the market got colder than expected.

3. As for Nintendo’s other hit hardware, Nikkan Sports reports that Iwata downplayed suggestions that the DS was losing ground to Apple’s increasingly ubiquitous iPhone. “Our presence in the marketplace is growing,” he succinctly stated.

As opposed to Flurry’s reports that the iPhone is one of the main reasons Nintendo’s profits fell, Nintendo itself thinks it’s the Wii’s sales stalling that are the main reason.

Nintendo will be releasing a new DS with a 4.2″ screen and are pondering a Kindle like free 3G whispernet for it.

We can’t say for sure that it was the iPhone that hurt Nintendo. All signs (including Nintendo’s official stance) seem to indicate the main culprit was Wii Sales stalling.

Assumption 2: iPhone, which may or may not have disrupted Nintendo, will disrupt Books

It’s worth noting that the first thing Flurry did was to start off with the intent to find which sector of media and entertainment the iPhone might next impact. Their post clearly states it.

They literally were going through their data trying to find something that would support their assumption that iPhone is going to disrupt something else.

Books was the easiest one to claim because of a seemingly significant fact i.e. number of books being released for the iPhone is very high.

Let’s put it another way -

It takes a few weeks to a few months to write a game.

It takes a few hours to take an ebook text, run it through the process to create a stock eBook App for the iPhone.

There are millions of books available to convert into Apps. Not to mention the possibility of compilations. Plus public domain books that are free.

We are expected to think it is significant that more eBook Apps are released than games?

Assumptions about Books on iPhone

1. More book apps than game apps being released is significant.
2. Sharp Rise in number of books added means sales are increasing. (It’s an implicit assumption). 
3. Sharp rise in number of books available indicates Apple is positioned to take market share away from Kindle and eReaders.   

Lets leave the make-believe world and enter the real world.

Are Books actually selling a lot? At what prices?

Here are the number of reading apps and books in the Top 100 and their prices -

1. At number 33,  A Masterpiece Collection for $1.
2. At number 52, Nick Chase: A Detective Story for $1. It’s not even a book – it’s a game that plays like an interactive film noir graphic novel.
3. For comparison, there are 46 games in the Top 100 Paid Apps.

So Books are taking over the App Store except they are not selling. 

What about Free Apps?

1. At number 47, a Dictionary App.   
2. At number 77, 21 thousand famous quotes.
3. For comparison, there are 48 games in the Top 100 Free Apps.

Not even free books are doing well. Nor are free eReaders apps like Kindle for iPhone (when compared with general apps).

What does the Books Section of the App Store tell us?

Here are the bestselling paid apps -

1. Masterpiece Collection for $1 – Public Domain Books.  
2. iPhone Tips & Tricks – $2.
3. Self Help Classics – $1. 
4. Audiobooks App – $1.
5. Classics ( Public Domain Books) – $3.
6. Free Books App – $2.
7. Holy Bible KJV – $1.
8. NIV BibleReader – $9.
9. Love Dare 40 Dares – $1.
10. NIV Bible – $6.
11. AudioBook Player – $1.
12. Great Books ( Public Domain Books.) – $2.

Except for Bibles there’s nothing for over $3.

 The best-selling actual books or book related apps in the Top 100 are -

1. Twilight Books – New Moon at 24, Eclipse at 32, Twilight at 37 ($11 each). Breaking Dawn at 43 for $20.
2. DigiNovel 26 for $13.
3. 90 second fitness solution Vook for $5 at 42.
4. Law of Attraction Cards for $4.
5. Four Agreements Cards for $4.
6. The Boy Scout Handbook for $10.
7. Crush It by Gary Vaynerchuk Vook for $12.

Everything else is $1 or $2 and public domain or trivia.

Only 10 out of the Top 100 best-selling book related apps are anything resembling a $10 book.  

What does the App Store data actually say about Books on the iPhone?

It seems to suggest -

1. Book Apps definitely are not the best-selling paid apps or the best-selling free apps. Just 2 out of the Top 100 in each case.
2. Even within the Books Category,  only 10 of the Top 100 Book Apps are actual books priced $5 or higher.
3. People only seem to want free or very cheap.
4. 2 of the Top 3 Free Apps (Kindle for iPhone, Stanza) are owned by Amazon. Even if that’s a big channel for ebooks Amazon owns most of it.

Which leaves us with just two possibilities that could conceivably support Flurry’s hypothesis that Books on the iPhone will steal market share from eReaders -

1. The eReader apps i.e. Kindle, Stanza, B&N eReader, etc. are selling lots of ebooks. Note that these free apps don’t make the Top 100 Free Apps overall. 
2. The tens of thousands of Book Apps for actual $5 to $10 books are all selling well, just not well enough to show up anywhere on the charts.

Flurry haven’t posted any numbers on actual book sales.

Who cares if tens of thousands of book apps are released every month? We only care if they sell.

A lot of the arguments against ‘one device to rule them all’ apply to Kindle Vs iPhone -

1. There are physical and hardware limitations to just how multi-purpose an all in one device can be.  
2. Dedicated Devices will keep improving as all-in-one devices improve.
3. The ‘convenience’ factor is over-rated.
4. Current investments in devices that are better at individual functions means they aren’t going away anywhere.

There are also counter arguments like this one which, rather conveniently, mentions Kindle Vs iPhone -

“Personally, my new iPhone 3GS has crossed the threshold of being a “good enough” e-reader that I will probably never go for something big and clunky like a Kindle”.

And its camera, at 3MP, is almost the equal of the first digital camera I bought (3.3MP), from which I have many photos that are certainly “good enough.”

That is the whole problem – ‘good enough’ is not enough.

The iPhone is Master of a few Trades, not all

Lets consider the iPhone and some common uses -

1. Browsing - There’s no way that the iPhone can supplant a PC or laptop and the dedicated keyboard and huge screen.
2. Games – Again, a console and TV (especially a good one) are a much better choice for games than a tiny screen. 
3. Reading – We’ll jump into this more. The short version is that a small, LCD screen cannot replace a 6″ eInk screen. 
4. Camera – Take the same picture with an iPhone and with a 12 MP camera and ask yourself what you’d prefer if you had to take a photograph you want as a keepsake.
5. Video – Everyone who thinks Flips and other sub $200 HD recording camcorders are going to die because the iPhone has VGA recording are mistaken. All the videos on this site are HD videos from a tiny Kodak Zi6. The iPhone can’t give you anything close to that level of quality.
6. You can have journal apps and take notes – However, a real life journal is much better. Even something on your PC like The Journal or OneNote is much better.

Because you carry it everywhere the iPhone is often the most convenient device to use. However, that doesn’t make it the best device to use.  

Take the iPhone camera –   

1. 3 MP, Autofocus, Tap to Focus, Video Recording, VGA up to 30 fps with audio.

Do people seriously think that will make digital cameras extinct?

 Take a Canon SD780IS (my current camera) -

1. 12.1 MP,  3x zoom lens, Optical Image Stabilizer, HD video recording (720p at 30 fps). It’s also the size of a pack of cards.

If you had to take pictures of your kids or on your vacation what would you rather choose?   

People who say the iPhone 3GS camera is good enough don’t consider that when you want a lifetime memory the difference between ’good enough’ and great is HUGE.  

iPhone might be evolving, so are Dedicated Devices.

The key thing here is something a James Fallows commenter pointed out – iPhone and other all in one devices are improving. However, so are dedicated devices.    

• iPhone gets a 3 MP camera and 12 MP cameras get HD video recording and become smaller than a pack of cards.  
• iPhone gets VGA recording and the Flip gets HD video recording.
• iPhone gets eReader Apps and Kindle gets a 9.7″ screen DX, Read To Me, and WhisperSync.

Consider the Flip and how much more convenient it is than previous generation camcorders – dedicated devices are going to keep evolving.

The Loser’s Choice Argument

The one most common argument used in favor of all-in-one devices is -

1. Why would you buy a $250 camera instead of a $500 phone does 10 things?

Well, the short answer is – You don’t have to choose one. That’s a loser’s choice.

1. The iPhone is great when you’re unprepared and want to quickly capture the moment.  
2. The ‘unneccessary, going to die’ $250 camera is great if you love photography enough to take it with you, or when you know you’ll be needing it.

The two questions to ask are -

1. Do I have to pick just one?
2. Which one is better at Function X? How important is function X to me?

That brings us to eReaders and eReading Apps.

Kindle Vs iPhone

Let’s take a look –

With medium font sizes this is what we get -

1. iPhone (on 3rd of 5 sizes) has 80 words per screen.
2. Kindle (on 3rd of 6 sizes) has 210 words per screen. 

Note that the video has iPhone with a smaller font size (2nd of 5 sizes) which is almost too small to read.

Here are the benefits of the iPhone -

1. You get Kindle for iPhone for free.
2. You carry it with you everywhere.
3. There’s color.
4. There’s a back-light.
5. There are a variety of eReader Apps in case you don’t like Kindle for iPhone.
6. There are thousands of eBooks as Apps.

Here are the benefits of the Kindle -

1. Much larger screen.
2. Screen (eInk) optimized for reading.  
3. Very long battery life.
4. Does not hurt your eyes.
5. Read To Me Feature (when not disabled by a Book’s Publisher).
6. In-built dictionary and Wikipedia Access.
7. The device is designed for reading.
8. No distractions.

In many ways the state of eInk puts the Kindle at a huge disadvantage. It still is better for reading.

Going back to the points we made earlier -

1. People who want a great reading experience will choose the Kindle.
2. Casual Readers will love the free reading apps on the iPhone.
3. You can have both.
4. As Reading on the iPhone keeps getting better (including Apple iReader/Apple Slate) Kindle and other eReaders will keep evolving too. 

If people do not want to spend $259 on a Kindle because reading is not that important for them or they can’t afford it – that’s fine. However, let’s not pretend that it’s because the iPhone is better for reading.

As eReader companies tap into developers and let people innovate eReader features dedicated eReaders will become much better.

It’s impossible to do everything well – the All-In-One Magic Device is a myth

With the App Store and its excellent design the iPhone does a few things exceptionally well and is decent or good at a lot of other things.

However, there are always compromises -

1. Games etc. need a color screen which makes an LCD necessary and instantly makes long-term reading difficult.
2. It being a phone makes the small size necessary instantly making a keyboard impossible.
3. The Camera having to fit and having to be within a certain price range means no zoom and a limited resolution.

And so forth.

As the iPhone becomes good at a million little things it’s also becoming stuck in the ‘good enough’ zone for each of those million little things.

The Apple Slate will fix the size problem. However, the compromises made in trying to be good for everything makes the iPhone incapable of being excellent at most of them.

When an iPhone owner claims an iPhone makes digital cameras (or for that matter, the Kindle) unnecessary, they are letting their love for the iPhone blind them to the fact that it is neither the best camera nor the best eReader. 

People in love with reading and photography are not going to give up Kindles and Cameras.

How Strange – It’s usually the as yet unannounced Apple product that is supposed to kill an existing giant.

Its also a strange situation for me - the iPhone is my first and only Apple Product.

However, the iPhone just floored me. It’s 4 weeks and there’s no denying the fact that Apple have created a thing of beauty. The App Store perhaps makes it a thing of infinite beauty.

Mr. Wilcox compares Apple Vs PC in the 1980s and 1990s with Android Vs iPhone. He also hammers on how important the eco-system is and forwards other arguments.

He labels Robert Scoble and John Gruber as Apple fanboys, so it’s time to hear from an obvious non Apple fanboy.

Weak Arguments and a Ridiculous Prophecy

Well, let’s point out a few obvious problems with his arguments -

1. His argument assumes that Apple’s insane growth rate will be exceeded by Android which up till now has done very little.  
2. Apps are crucial – Apple destroys Android in Apps. Not 5% better. Not much better. Exponentially Better.  
3. The iPhone itself is exceptional. There’s a 1% chance the Droid is as good, and that’s being generous.
4. The iPhone’s design and much-maligned review process ensure Apps are good. Look at the functionality to email results from an App – that’s excellent email integration.  
5. This analysis disregards the fact that we also have RIMM, Nokia/Symbian, and Windows Mobile. How can you leave out RIMM/Blackberry?

Worst of all, much of his argument is based on this rather impractical analysis by Gartner -

Android smartphone OS share would grow from 1.6 percent in first quarter 2009 to 18 percent in fourth quarter 2012.

By comparison, iPhone OS: 13.6 percent, up from 10.8 percent. 

You mean to tell me that in 3 years Apple will only grow its market share 25.9%, while Android will grow its market share 1025% ?

Gartner have outdone themselves.

The iPhone 3GS is the most wished for gift this Holiday Season. Apple is probably going to increase its share to more than 13.6% in just the next 6-12 months.

Better Comparions than Mac Vs PC

Why is it that people feel the need to go back 20-30 years.

Why not consider -

1. Facebook Vs OpenSocial. Facebook won, perhaps due to its apps.  
2. Windows Vs Linux on Netbooks. Linux started off as the main OS (50%+ market share) and it was open. It now has less than 10% market share.  
3. Decades of Linux Vs Windows. If Mac lost to PCs because DOS was more open than Mac, then surely Linux should have utterly destroyed Microsoft by now.  

The minute a company gets very successful certain people in the tech world get antsy and want to tear it down.

It’s always David Vs Goliath and David gets all the love until he wins and turns into Goliath.

Epilogue

The irony of having to defend Apple. It’s such an irrational argument that there was no other choice.

The sheer beauty (and inapppropriateness) of using Mac Vs DOS in the 1980s to prophesize that Android will beat the iPhone overwhelms me.

BridgeStone Color eReader Prototype using QR-LPD

BridgeStone has a news release (translated by Google) with details on its new superhero eReader -

1. 13.1 inches pages (A4 size) refresh in 0.8 seconds.
2. However, they also mention 10.7 inches screen size and that might be the actual size.
3. Color with 4,096 colors. It looks impressive -
   

   QR-LPD means Color Bridgestone eReader

4. Touchscreen that supports handwriting.  
5. Ability to connect to mobile phones.
6. Focused on ebooks, newspapers and documents.
7. Kansai Urban Banking Corporation will start a trial in Spring 2010.

It certainly seems like color eReaders might go mainstream in 2010.

Liquavista wows with Prototype eInk that supports Video, Fast Refreshes

Engadget has the scoop on 3 new ePaper technologies from Liquavista –

The main focus seems to be on supporting video and faster screen refreshes. They also have a color eInk technology they’re working on (no release data indicated), and something called Vivid that comes out in 2010 or 2011. As opposed to electrophoretic displays (which is what eInk is) these are electrowetting displays and that allows for faster refresh speeds and video support.

MSI eReader with Tegra Chip

The MSI eReader is based on NVIDIA’s Tegra processor. Digitimes has the actual scoop –  

Micro-Star International (MSI) chairman Joseph Hsu revealed that the company is currently in development of an Nvidia Tegra-based e-book reader, but since the device still has some problems are waiting to be fixed, the company will wait until the first half of 2010 to announce further details.

 The Tegra series of chips have features that make you wonder why it’s used (these are for the lower powered chip) -

1. 720p HD video playback.
2. Low Power.
3. Ability to access visually intensive applications like mapping and gaming.

The use of Tegra hints at an eReader/Netbook hybrid, much like MSI’s netbook rival Asus. Electronista also arrives at the same conclusion.

Apple Slate rumors reappear - Apple ready to give Newspapers 70%

The Sydney Morning Herald thinks the Apple iReader/Slate might be out early next year, based on Apple talking with Australian media companies -

Apple is preparing to release a groundbreaking tablet computer in Australia and around the world early next year and has been in discussions with media companies …

 It will have a touch screen and be targeted at users who mainly want to surf the web, read books and newspapers or watch movies

While early next year definitely doesn’t gel with imminent Apple Slate, it does confirm that books and newspapers will be targeted.

What should be really interesting for newspapers is the Herald’s claim that Apple is offering newspapers 70% of revenue -

Apple’s model has been to give developers 70 per cent of the revenue and to keep a 30 per cent cut. It is expected a similar deal will be offered to media companies

Since Apple users pay their mobile carrier separately for network use, the bandwidth prices that drive Kindle subscription costs higher don’t apply.

Meanwhile, Peter Kafka at Media Memo claims that Bill Keller won’t confirm or deny the Apple Slate and that other news organizations aren’t privy to Apple Slate information (which obviously clashes with the Herald’s report).

Barnes & Noble to sell Plastic Logic Que eReader in stores, will only have demo Nooks in some stores

In a strange twist Barnes & Noble announced two news items that make little sense together -

Some B&N Stores will only have Demo Nooks

Paid Content confirms that only some BN stores will carry the Nook for on-the-spot sales.

That means at other stores users get to play around with a Nook and then wait for their Nook to be shipped to them. The Paid Content Article also includes a Q&A that dispels some myths i.e.

no browser, no Text To Speech, some publishers have opted out of LendMe or blacked out portions of their catalogs.

more favorable sharing of revenue with publishers – However, B&N will own the customer relationship.

No discount on Nook for B&N members. No Advertising initially beyond B&N’s in-store and online promotions.

Good to get confirmation on some of these ideas. Wonder what cut B&N will offer Publishers.

B&N Stores will sell Plastic Logic Que eReaders next year

While B&N won’t be selling Nook at all stores, they will be selling Plastic Logic’s Que.

The only conceivable reason B&N are doing this is that they feel the Que takes on the Kindle DX and not on the Nook. Nonetheless the fact that we might end up with Barnes and Noble stores that sell Ques and not Nooks is weird.  

ReadWriteWeb asks a valid question – Are B&N partnering with too many eReaders?

The answer would be yes. What’s worse than the confusion of choosing between Que, Nook, iRex?

There will actually be stores where you can get a Que or an iRex instantly – but for the Nook you have to wait to get it in the mail.

Sixth, we need to figure out the right journalistic product to deliver to mobile platforms. I’m hoping we can get the newsroom more actively involved in delivering our best journalistic product ..

… times reader, iPhone apps, impending apple slate or whatever comes after that.

This is from a speech last week. The use of the words impending and apple slate next to each other have predictably sent everyone into a tizzy.

Check out 8:15 through 8:45 for the part where Apple Slate gets mentioned -

Impending Apple Slate – What does that mean?

Nothing .

Well, actually it could mean a lot -

1. The name of the Apple Tablet is Slate or iSlate. 
2. It definitely confirms that Apple is working with newspapers. 
3. It increases the probability that Apple is very actively targeting books, newspapers, and textbooks.
4. Imminent might mean a November release or it might mean a Jan or Feb release.  

The mention guarantees the product exists and will be reaching us soon and will include newspapers in some form.

Slate would be a good name

Wikipedia -

In 18th and 19th century schools, slate was extensively used for blackboards and individual writing slates for which slate or chalk pencils were used.

They were largely used in the 20th century, though writing slates were largely replaced by lined paper and notebooks, and slates still continue in wide usage.

Slate also hints at a focus on schools and colleges and textbooks and notebooks.

Imagine the Kindle with journal and notebook functionality and the iPhone’s touchscreen. Apart from damage to the eyes, it would be a pretty neat device.

Apple Slate would fragment the eReader market

We already have Nook launching a rather respectable eReader and Sony improving. The arrival of the Apple Slate would mean we suddenly have 4 eReaders competing for the top spot – each with different pros and cons.

1. People focused on reading would get Kindles. 
2. People focused on reading in between other things would get Apple Slate.
3. People focused on sharing (once) and openness would get Nook. 
4. Some people would pick Sony.

A fragmented eReader market might be a bad thing or it might be a good thing.

It’s nice to finally have confirmation that Apple is working on an eReader and that it’ll include newspapers.