It’s always interesting to see how the #2 eReader company is doing.

While analysts are projecting that Kindle might account for 10% or more of Amazon’s revenues soon, B&N provides us with this hard fact (courtesy ZDNet) -

Our overall NOOK business across devices, accessories, and additional content grew to over $250 million in comparable sales across retail at BN.com in Q4. That delivered close to 300% growth versus last year.

$250 million a quarter sounds like $1 billion a year to me. Of course, if you’d like to keep your head stuck in the sand you can point to seasonal changes and temporary jumps and price elasticity of demand (who cares it if applies or not – it sounds so cool and intelligent).

B&N is also claiming that it increased its market share in eBooks by 1 to 2 points in Q4 – and that it now has 26% to 27% market share. Not improbable given the success of Nook Color. It also said that it opened over 1 million Nook accounts in Q4 – across Nook Apps and Nook devices.

The big questions are -

1. Is Kindle a $2 billion a year business already? Surely, if Nook is accounting for $250 million a quarter, then the Kindle must be accounting for a lot more.
2. How long before Kindle becomes a $1 billion a quarter business?
3. Does Nook have a shot at becoming a $1 billion a quarter business?

The bigger questions are -

1. Aren’t dedicated reading devices supposed to be dead?
2. But everyone says no one reads any more. Could Steve Jobs and the Google Guys be wrong?
3. How the heck is B&N beating both Apple and Google in the eBook Wars?

Finally, the biggest question -

1. When will people who don’t read stop predicting the future of reading and eReaders?

Haters gonna Hate. It’s a good thing they aren’t well-read enough to make cogent arguments.

Here are some of the things we’re likely to see in 2011 -

1. The first color screen eReaders.
2. The first $100 eReaders from the Big 3 eReader companies.
3. A new price point to replace $9.99. The Death of the Agency Model.
4. Kindle 4.
5. Kindle Tablet.
6. Nook 2.
7. Nook Color 2.
8. iPad 2.
9. Kindle DX 3.
10. Sony Reader 666.
11. A wave of eReaders and eWriters from Samsung, Acer, Asus.
12. The “Invasion of the ‘iPad and eReader killing’ Android Tablets”. Android Tablets are like super-slow zombies. They started off from the town center in early 2010 – aiming to surround your farmhouse and eat you up. It’s early 2011 and they’re still a few miles away. Meanwhile, your neighbour is having a heart-attack because in just one or two more years they’ll arrive.

This post will cover all of these, starting with the least interesting.

Android Tablets and their perceived threat to eReaders

We don’t really have anything impressive other than Nook Color. B&N wasn’t even trying to make an Android tablet, and yet, Nook Color is better than all the other Android tablets. That either says a lot about B&N’s ability to deliver compelling products, or it says a lot about the other Android Tablet makers’ lack of ability to deliver products.

There are a few problems with the whole concept that Android Tablets are going to threaten eReaders -

1. There aren’t customers of good intent so there isn’t money. That means there will not be many developers making great apps because there’s little financial incentive to make great apps for the Android App Store.
2. Amazon’s Android App Store is a bit of a pipe dream. Can Amazon pull together the best 10% apps in the Android App ecosystem? Yes. Can it turn customers of bad intent into customers of good intent? No.
3. If the iPad couldn’t kill eReaders, and we can say this with some amount of confidence since everyone and their cat thinks millions of Kindles and millions of Nook Colors were sold in 2010, then do we really think something like the Xoom or the Dell Streak could threaten eReaders? Actually, the Dell Streak has been discontinued. Perhaps the Press should start writing about how ‘eReaders will kill Android Tablets’.

The whole problem with Android is that it’s based on free and caters to free-loving people and companies.

Google built it to defend Search. Google gives it away for free. Google gives away free services. Google encourages free apps. All Android is, is a big moat to protect search. Everyone seems oblivious to this truth.

It’s not going to be able to transform into something other than a free OS that lives and dies by free. It calls out to people who love open and free, and they make it even more open and more free. Everyone in the ecosystem is in love with free – to the point that developers make apps for free. You can’t change the culture of the ecosystem.

It might destroy profits of other ecosystems – to a point. However, it can’t generate a ton of profits. Its only aim is to protect Google’s Search cash cow and it’s doing a decent job of that.

Samsung, Acer, and Asus releasing eReaders

Their heart’s not really in it. You can tell from how they keep hemming and hawing about what to release and when to release.

It’s like the project you get which people think could turn out to be big, but you really dislike. So you don’t really do anything much and hope it disappears, and that everyone forgets about it.

For most of 2011 we are going to be talking about the big invasion of the Beasts of the East and all the amazing eReaders they will bring to market. Apart from Samsung no one is going to bring anything impressive to market. Asus has already morphed its eReader into a Tablet-like eWriter-Something. Acer cancelled its eReader, then un-cancelled it, and will probably re-cancel it.

Showing off an eReader at CES is the surest sign that a company is either not serious about bringing an eReader to market, or that the company is incapable of surviving in the market.

Sony Reader 666

There are a few things we can count on -

1. Sony will make the best eReader. The best looking, the technologically most advanced eReader.
2. It will forget that it’s meant for reading books. So no wireless downloads and no decent book store.
3. It will pick the most ridiculous name possible. And an even more ridiculous price point.
4. Sony will talk about its focus on non-US markets.
5. Sony will refuse to add any infrastructure to support its eReaders.

Sony’s level of incompetence, when it comes to eReaders, is exemplified by Sony managing to be the first, and probably only, eReader App company to get rejected by the Apple Store.

Still holding out hope that someone at Sony figures out that the device is meant for readers and that book prices and features should reflect that. However, wouldn’t bet even 77 cents on it.

Kindle DX 3

Actually, this might be a bit unlikely. Amazon is giving Kindle DX 2 zero love, and it might just decide to do away with the bigger eReader and focus on the Kindle Tablet.

Perhaps Amazon will surprise us and bring a Kindle DX 3 to market that has all the latest features.

Color Screen eReaders

The price is going to scare everyone away. The same companies that have been showing off screens at CES for 2 years, without releasing anything, are promising that color eInk screen prices are going to be very low.

Yes, of course – They’ve shown just how dependable they are. There’s no way we’re going to believe them when they claim color eInk screens will cost about as much as black and white eInk screens.

If one of them manages to become the first screen technology maker, ever, to release a new screen technology at the same price as an older, mass-produced screen technology – then that company deserves all the sales it will get.

Color screen eReaders aren’t going to be very interesting this year unless they come in at under $200 - Even then they might not be very interesting if black and white screen eReaders drop to under $100.

iPad 2

This isn’t really very interesting.

Apart from the ‘this is going to destroy eReaders’ angle and the ‘this is the most marvellous technology ever’ angle. Steve Jobs probably thinks iPad 2 is the most amazing thing since the wheel – closely followed by the invention of the aeroplane and the steam engine.

After all, isn’t it marvellous that it will be as thin as a quarter, and as shiny as aluminum foil, and as ‘pure’ an experience as bathing in a waterfall in the Peruvian Andes.

After all the hype has settled the purists will argue whether its greatness stems from it being a larger iPod Touch or a smaller iPad. Perhaps it comes from the front and back facing cameras. It had been done before – but never like this. Apple showed everyone how to really put 2 cameras on a device. They even placed the cameras such that it minimizes the amount of eye movement required to look up at the camera. It is, after all, touches like this that make the difference between the ordinary and the aesthetically and experientially brilliant.

iPad 2. Apple revolutionizes computers – Again. A revolution that will not be surpassed until iPad 3 or iPhone 5 or iHeadphones 7 arrives.

Nook 2

Nook Color is so much better than Nook that Nook 2 is pretty much irrelevant. At some level B&N understands this - it might just release a Nook WiFi 2 and kill off the Nook line.

Nook 2 is not at all interesting. At best, it’s going to introduce one or two cool new features and highlight 5 to 6 Amazon weaknesses. At worst, it’s going to be instantly dated thanks to an Amazon Kindle software upgrade which adds ePub or library book support.

Kindle 4

Even Amazon would be hard-pressed to introduce more incremental improvements to the Kindle. Kindle 2 and Kindle 3 have added about as much as you could add to the Basic Kindle. What’s left? Glitter and Stickers?

There are probably not going to be any huge new technological advances in eInk in 2011 – with the exception of color eInk. That probably means Kindle 4 will not arrive this year. If it does, then a color eInk screen is the only thing that could save it from being the sequel that makes you wish it had never been made.

Amazon is likely to focus on a Kindle Tablet and on a sub $100 Kindle. A full-fledged Kindle 4 with color eInk and 1,000 incremental improvements will probably arrive only after February 2012.

Death of the Agency Model, and of $9.99

This is pretty important.

The huge landgrab in eReaders might be for naught if Publishers and non-Indie Authors don’t figure out a way to keep ebook prices high. It’d be the fates laughing at all the companies investing heavily in eReader technology.

Imagine how the companies would feel if there were just $1 and $3 books left by the time we went from 10% digital to 90% digital.

If we end up in a world with $50 eReaders and $1 ebooks the grand eReader Wars and the grander eBook Wars would be the most pointless wars ever fought (at least in the corporate realm).

It’ll be bittersweet to see $9.99 die a fast and painful death.

Kindle Tablet

This is easily one of the most exciting things to look forward to. There’s nothing quite like the Nook Color. It’s a new device that has created its own market – the Reading Tablet market.

Amazon’s answer, the Kindle Tablet, might focus on being a reading tablet aimed squarely at the Nook Color. If that happens we will have a great contest. The other possibility is that Amazon decides to squeeze Nook Color between its dedicated eReader, the Kindle, and its general purpose Tablet, the Kindle Tablet.

The latter would be a huge mistake but it seems likely that Amazon will make that mistake. It has to protect games and movies and it has to try and take over music - the scope of Amazon’s ambition means that it might ignore just how much of a threat a dedicated reading tablet like the Nook Color really is.

Nook Color 2

Can’t think of a way B&N could improve on the Nook Color. It does need a good app store desperately. However, in nearly every other way it exceeds expectations. Unless B&N figures out a way to magically morph/switch between eInk and LCD there isn’t really much room for Nook Color 2 to improve on Nook Color 1.

What might make a huge difference is figuring out a way to cut the price even more. B&N could also attack the general tablet market – it already has the best Android Tablet without trying. It wouldn’t hurt to see what it could do if it really did focus on making a full-out tablet.

Nook Color 2 and Kindle Tablet are going to be the biggest eReader releases of 2011. Which is a strange thing to say given that they aren’t even pure eReaders.

The first $100 Big 3 eReader

B&N and Sony lost badly to the $139 Kindle WiFi in 2010. Both of them get a shot at redemption in 2011.

The first Big 3 eReader maker that makes a really good, really solid sub $100 eReader has a good shot at winning 2011. A few things would really help -

1. Releasing in September or October to make sure you get all the features possible, and to ensure you don’t get preempted by a newer eReader.
2. Going as far below $100 as possible.
3. Adding on as much real and perceived value as possible – free books, wireless features, offers and promotions, coupons, a good book store, little games, and everything that would make people feel they won’t regret the sub-$100 eReader purchase.
4. Reducing friction – make it look good, say all the right things (open, lending, easy, no-hassle), make it available everywhere, market it well.
5. Attack competitor weaknesses. Good bookstore = Sony Reader is dead. ePub and Library Books = Competes well with Kindle. No Bugs = Competes well with Nook.

The sub-$100 eReader releases are going to be the most important eReader events of 2011. Each of the big three eReader companies is likely to release a sub-$100 eReader in 2011 – When the releases happen, and what the eReaders are like, will determine which company wins 2011.

1. Smaller eReader makers are dying out.
2. Both Amazon and B&N are getting hammered by Wall Street for their investment in eReaders. B&N more so than Amazon.
3. Apple seems ready to cut off the oxygen supply to eReader apps on the iPlatform.

Let’s take a quick look at each of these.

Kno and Alex are dying

Kno eReader is being phased out and the company is going to focus on making software. It’s a bit ridiculous – that a company making a dual screen tablet is considering selling off its hardware business and moving to making software for other people’s tablets. What a capitulation.

All Things D has a report on No-Kno -

Sources said Kno execs have recently decided that the quicker-than-expected uptake in tablet production by a multitude of powerful device makers had made its efforts to package a seamless offering less critical.

Instead, the company will focus on its robust software and services to offer students on the Apple iPad, …

BoomTown could not determine which two companies Kno was in serious discussions with about unloading its hardware business …

Made its efforts to package a seamless offering less critical?

They ought to be honest – They got destroyed in the Tablet market.

Almost in parallel, the Alex eReader is being phased out. It’s not clear whether the ‘phase-out’ is to introduce a new model or whether Alex is about to join Kno in the Beautiful eReader Graveyard.

B&N stock gets punished for B&N’s focus on the future, i.e. eReaders

Amazon’s stock got hammered after its last earnings release – Wall Street didn’t like Amazon’s focus on the future, i.e. eReaders. The same happened with Barnes and Noble today. Thanks to Roger Knights for the link to Bloomberg’s article on B&N and eReaders.

It’s some sort of joke where Wall Street isn’t willing to look beyond the next 6 months.

Barnes & Noble Inc., the largest U.S. bookstore chain, declined as much as 15 percent after suspending its dividend to conserve cash and invest in electronic books

What alternative does B&N have – Should it forget about ebooks and eReaders and go bankrupt like Borders?

You should be handing B&N a prize. What other company can compete with a giant like Amazon, survive a huge transition in its business, and come up with decent products that speed the democratization of Publishing.

B&N has the best Android tablet released so far. It has it for $249. It has around 20% of the market in both eReaders and eBooks – a larger share than it had in physical books. It should be getting an award for Most Adaptable Company of 2010.

Instead the stock is down 15% as Wall Street worries about its annual bonuses.

The problem is that for both Amazon and B&N this negativity from Wall Street has consequences. Amazon and B&N have to plan out 10 to 40 years into the future but they are hobbled by the geckos of Wall Street and the geckos’ focus on the next 6 months.

The threat of Platforms reneging on their (implicit) promises

So B&N and Amazon made a smart calculation -

1. If we make eReader apps we reach all these casual readers.

It seems to have worked because, supposedly, 40% of ebook sales on iPad are via Kindle for iPad, and another 20% are via Nook for iPad.

However, B&N and Amazon either disregarded or didn’t realize two other things -

1. A not insignificant portion of people who wanted a reading device got an iPad because they could get a choice of stores and/or they could get their favored provider (Amazon or B&N) on the iPad. Those were lost Kindle sales and lost Nook sales. It might be just 5% or 10% of iPad sales – but it was sales that Amazon and B&N lost thanks to their own iPad apps.
2. Apple controls the platform. It can kick out Amazon and B&N any time. It can impose a tax and take all the profits for itself anytime. Now, its trending in that direction.

Basically, Amazon and B&N ought to realize now, if they haven’t already, that they are strengthening the enemy. For two companies that are forward-thinking for the most part, this was an amazingly short-sighted move.

Every platform is the same – a risky gamble. Perhaps not the Web and not the PC. However, Android, Mac, iPhone, iPad, and other platforms are just a gamble.

Not only is the grand ‘reading apps for every platform’ strategy a long-term impossibility, it’s strengthening the enemy.

Sony Reader has been in the market for nearly 4 years. Perhaps there was 2 years of development before that.

Nook has been in the market for 1 year and 3 months. It was in development for around a year before that.

We’ve seen eReaders evolve and improve over that time period. However, you have to wonder how close we are to a truly glorious eReader. An eReader that is timeless.

Let’s consider two questions that might help us figure out how long we have to wait before the superstar eReaders arrive -

1. Does the 10,000 hour rule apply to products people make (in that same way that it, perhaps, applies to skills people learn)? 
2. When would eReaders hit the 10 years/10,000 hours mark?

And after that we’ll wonder -

1. What happens when eReaders hit the 10,000 hour rule?

Let’s start by jumping into the 10,000 hours rule and our assumption that such a thing as the 10,000 hour rule exists.

10 Years/10,000 Hours = Mastery

A concept brought up in numerous books like Talent is Overrated and Outliers is that it takes a certain amount of ‘deliberate practice’ to attain mastery in a skill.

These books talk about the process of mastering a skill as something very distinct from randomly doing something for fun.

1. They claim Mastery requires deliberate practice. Deliberate Practice is a special type of practice that involves a very conscious, almost painful, focus on improving/learning.
2. They also claim it usually takes 10,000 hours of deliberate practice to master a skill. For some areas it takes 20,000 or more hours.
3. Additionally, they claim that this 10,000 hours of deliberate practice is usually spread out over a period of 10 years.

If we make a giant assumption that such a 10,000 hours rule exists, we have to ask ourselves what happens when a person has attained mastery. One possible answer is that the person starts working on her/his masterpieces.

How long does it take an ‘expert’ to make a masterpiece?

We have an expert. She has spent 10,000 hours over a period of 8 to 10 years and attained mastery in her craft. Now she sets off to create her masterpiece.

How long would it take her?

That’s a good question, and one assumption we could make, one that seems awfully convenient, is that it would take her another 10,000 hours of ‘deliberate application’ of her skills to create her masterpiece.

Let’s run with the assumption because, well, it is rather convenient. Plus it’s better to overshoot the figure than undershoot it.

It’s better to assume a 10 year period than a 2 year period

Let’s take eReaders. If we say that truly skilled people can create a masterpiece in just 2 years we would have the Nook 1, the Sony Reader, and the Kindle all labeled masterpieces. While they’re all good, it’s doubtful that any of them represent an eReader masterpiece.

If, on the other hand, we assume a 10 year period, we can hope that in around 2013 the best Kindle ever made will arrive. That in 2013 Sony too will exceed itself. That the best Nook ever will arrive in 2015.

What happens then?

What happens when eReaders get 10,000 hours of deliberate application?

We haven’t really gotten close to where we could be with eReaders.

Kindle – 6 to 7 years. Sony Reader – 6 years. Nook – 2 years.

Yet, already, we have around 10 million eReaders sold. We have eBooks at 10% or so of the US Book Market. We have the beginning of the democratization of Publishing and the rise of indie authors. We have a fall in book prices.

What happens when eReaders get their full 10 years and become true masterpieces?

Everything accelerates – the quality of eReaders, the adoption of eReaders, the spread of eBooks, everything.

Perhaps these are the main improvements we’ll see by 2013/2014 (when at least Kindle and Sony Reader have hit their 10 years) -

1. Prices around $50. 
2. Color support.
3. eReaders you can also use as eWriters. 
4. Unbreakable eReaders.
5. Flexible eReaders.
6. Availability of 90% of books that are published.
7. eReaders that can be folded out into screen sizes that are larger than their carrying sizes. 

It’s hard to say what features we’ll see over the next 3 to 4 years. Text to Speech wasn’t really a feature many people anticipated. Neither was the free-hand drawing that Sony Reader added in its second generation eReaders. Hopefully, there will be lots of good surprises.

We are still in the beginning stages

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from this ‘eReaders still have to hit 10,000 hours’ post is that we’re still only 50% or 60% into making good eReaders. By 2013/2014 we’ll get our first superstar eReaders. The real masterpieces.

By then lots of other things will have improved too – resources for authors, publishing, platforms, services, software.

It’s going to be a very different world and it’ll be interesting to see how the people who are predicting 25% market share for ebooks by 2015 handle the new reality.

At the same time we have -

1. PVI saying eInk Triton is not far off. Hanvon agrees, and is releasing a color screen eReader this year in China.
2. PocketBook releasing a color eReader, based on Qualcomm Mirasol, in Q3, 2011. 
3. Samsung buying Liquavista, which has its own color ePaper technology, and offering 50 Euro discounts on both of its existing eReaders.
4. Fujitsu selling its second generation color screen eReader in Japan.
5. Adam shipping with a Pixel Qi powered multi-mode screen, which includes a reflective mode for reading in sunlight.

That’s 5 separate companies and 5 separate screen technologies. 2011 will definitely see interesting color eReaders and reading tablets. The things worth wondering about are -

Will Amazon release a color Kindle? What will PocketBook’s Mirasol screen eReader be like? Is Samsung going to soon release a color eReader?

This post will consider the third question.

Signs that a Samsung color eReader is closer than we think

There are a few -

1. It just bought Liquavista outright. That might mean it’s getting ready to produce color eReaders and wants to get a lock on the technology, and also guarantee there is enough supply.
2. It’s started discounting its existing eReaders massively. Samsung E60 is now half-price at 50 euros. If there’s one thing we’ve learnt about eReaders it’s that a big discount is usually quickly followed by a new eReader release.
3. It’s stayed in the eReader market and it’s launching worldwide. If nothing else, that suggests it has intent to compete all over the world.

You also have to factor in the fact that Samsung is a monster and it’s bound to keep fighting in eReaders. A few facts courtesy Wikipedia -

• Samsung Group accounts for 20% of South Korea’s exports.
• It had $173.4 billion in revenue in 2008. Also, in 2008 it had $252.5 billion in assets.
• It’s everywhere – world’s second largest shipbuilder, world’s largest electronics company, the 14th largest life insurance company. It even has the fifth most popular theme park in the world.

With over 10 million eReaders sold, and a potential market of tens of millions of eReaders a year, Samsung must feel it’s now worth it to commit fully to the eReader market. Which would explain it buying Liquavista.

Is it possible that Samsung might lose interest in eReaders and color eReaders?

Well, it’s rather unlikely.

It has eReaders out. It is selling them all over the world. It just bought a company that makes color eReader screen technology.

There are probably some reasons why Samsung might quit eReaders -

1. It might think that reading tablets or tablets are a better market to compete in. Note that the Tablet market has very little competition at the moment (just Apple) while eReaders have the Big 3 of Kindle, Nook, and Sony Reader.
2. Strategically Samsung might feel it’s important to focus on markets other than ereaders first.
3. It might decide to get into the business of providing eReader technology like eReader screens and memory – as opposed to eReaders themselves.
4. The eReader market might stall at around 10 to 15 million units a year.
5. Samsung might decide it doesn’t want to get into the hassles of dealing with Publishers for books. It might feel there’s just too much work involved in providing a complete device+store+channel solution of the type Amazon and B&N provide.

While it’s not inconceivable that Samsung leaves the eReader market, it’s a bit unlikely.

Only the US eReader market has reached anything close to maturity - it’s still penetrable via a color eReader or a very cheap one. The whole world awaits and Samsung has a lot of advantages worldwide. It’s obviously got some big advantages when it comes to Asia and especially South Korea and surrounding countries. There is the possibility that the eReader market keeps growing – Samsung can’t risk missing out on a 40 million eReaders a year market.

When might Samsung release a color eReader?

Q3 or Q4 of 2011 would be the most likely time. All signs indicate that a Color Kindle won’t arrive until Fall 2011 or later. eReaders powered by Qualcomm screens are also not going to be available until then. eInk Triton is only arriving in China in the first half of the year – It might not even arrive in the US by end 2011.

Now that Samsung owns Liquavista it can speed up timelines and ramp up production - It gets a chance to beat Qualcomm and eInk Triton to the US market.

The most likely release date – Fall 2011.

If Samsung decides it needs to be first to market – a June 2011 release date.

Anything before then is rather unlikely.

It seems that Google has bought out a company called eBook Technologies Incorporated. The acquisition is notable for a few reasons -

1. ETI has two LCD based eReaders and 1 eInk based eReader – the latter looked surprisingly like the BeBook. This might mean that Google is looking at building an eReader. It makes sense to build on one of ETI’s eReaders, instead of starting from scratch.
2. ETI has 8 very important eReader patents including ones covering advertising in books and secure ebook delivery. These were mostly granted on December 16th, 2010. This might mean that Google already has an eReader ready, and just wants to protect itself from patent lawsuits. Given that Amazon and B&N already have several patents, and that companies like Discovery Communications also have eReader related patents, it makes sense to buy a portfolio of patents that would keep a Google eReader safe from patent lawsuits.
3. ETI has technology for an eBook platform which includes an ebook publishing and distribution system. This is something Google would definitely need if it were to get into eReaders. In fact, it would need this even if it sticks with just ebooks.

Here are some links of interest -

1. Cache site for the ETI-Proto – ETI’s 6″ eInk eReader. 
2. Cache site for ETI Product Overview – ETI’s eReaders, Online Bookshelf, eBookstore, and Tools. 
3. TechCrunch’s Coverage – Some intelligent comments on a rather amateurish post.

However, the real question is – Why did Google buy eBook Technologies Incorporated?

Is Google Building an eReader? Will it build on top of ETI-Proto?

The first possibility is that Google decided that instead of spending $1 billion on B&N’s Nook division, or Sony’s Sony Reader division, it makes more sense to spend $50 million on a smaller company like ETI or Cool-er.

Then it could take the devices ETI has, pick one or more, and build a Google eReader using the technology. As a nice bonus, it gets a bunch of eReader patents that ensure it can release the new Google Reader without any problems.

Will Google go with an eInk eReader or a LCD eReader?

Here are the three ETI eReaders Google could build on (please note that most of this information is from 2007, and is thus pretty outdated) -

1. ETI-Proto. It has a 6″ eInk screen, a single button, and seems to be a BeBook clone.
2. ETI-1. It has a back-lit, 8.2 inch, 16 bit color LCD touchscreen with VGA resolution. It has brightness and contrast controls. It also has an internal 56K modem, an ethernet port,  a memory card slot, a Motorola processor, and a stylus.
3. ETI-2. It has a back-lit, 5.5 inch, 4-bit grayscale LCD touch screen with half-VGA resolution. It has page turn buttons on the front left side. It has an internal 33.6K modem, a USB slot, a stylus, and a Cirrus Logic processor.

It seems ETI had an entire range of eReaders – eInk, grayscale LCD, color LCD. The eReaders also seem pretty decent given these specifications are from 2007.

Given that it’s Google, it’s likely that it will use this technology to build a reading tablet, and not an eReader.

How likely is it that Google is building an eReader or a Reading Tablet?

Very likely.

Google built a phone secretly. Then it built a netbook/laptop secretly. There’s little doubt it’ll build an eReader sooner or later. It has search traffic, it has books, it has public domain books, it has an ebook store, it has cloud infrastructure – the only thing missing is an eReader.

In fact, it’s quite possible that Google has an eReader almost ready - that it’s buying ETI simply for eReader patents.

Is Google buying patents to protect an almost-ready Google eReader? To sell advertising supported books ?

Let’s take a look at the impressive eReader patents ETI has. Thanks to Dave at TechCrunch for the clues.

Patent for advertising in Books

[Advertising in Books] System and Method for providing Sub-Publication Content in an Electronic Device – A patent about showing ‘master content’ and then showing sub-content that might be a book review, news, sports news, classifieds, book-related, and so forth. It includes advertisements as sub-content. This might be the BIG patent. Amazon has a patent for in-book advertising. Now Google just got a patent for in-book advertising.

You can also read the entire eReader patent.

Patent for Secure eBook delivery and offline eBook shopping

From the Management page at ETI’s website we get this -

 John is co-inventor and patent holder of a system to provide secure electronic book delivery. He is also a co-inventor of a patent-pending system to provide offline catalog shopping on an electronic book.

Those are two very important patents. Can’t find the patent numbers. Please do leave a comment if you can find them.

Flexible Electronic Device

Update: This is actually Skiff.

Patent Application Number – 20100315399. This is a patent that covers a flexible electronic device and a method of manufacture. This patent specifically quotes the Kindle and Plastic Logic’s Que -

In many cases, electronic devices have replaced traditional, non-electronic devices.

For example, for many, electronic reading devices have replaced traditional paper books. An example of such a device is Amazon’s Kindle wireless reading device, which allows a user to download an electronic book, and then read that book using the device. Another example of a similar product is the Plastic Logic Reader. These devices, while providing functionality for the user, still resemble small, inflexible computers.

It’s interesting that Skiff has patents for a flexible eReader. Thought that News Corp had closed it down. This might be a pretty valuable patent. Skiff has at least two more eReader related patents -

1. [This is Skiff] Electronic Display Controller – System for controlling an electronic display, such as an electrophoretic display.
2. [This is Skiff] System and Method for Providing Spatial and Temporal Content in an Electronic Device. Includes Advertising which makes it a hugely important patent.

It’d be worth investigating what other patents Skiff has. Perhaps in a later post.

Additional Patents

ETI also holds a few additional patents -

1. Electronic Paper Display Whitespace Utilization – A patent about how ePaper content formatting is presented. It literally talks about figuring out how best to display content on an eReader, and which content to display, given a certain amount of available space left. It’s a bit ridiculous there’s a patent for how words are shown on a page.
2. System and Method for delivering Publication Content to Reader Devices using Mixed Mode Transmission – A patent that talks about multi-casting content to multiple eReaders. It also talks about using mixed mode transmission.

It’s interesting that nearly all of ETI’s patents mention devices using electronic paper displays. Why would it focus so much on eInk when it had just 1 eInk based eReader?

Is Google buying ETI’s Platform and Distribution Technology?

After looking at the patents ETI has, this possibility seems really unlikely. However, let’s see if there’s something worth acquiring.

ETI has a platform consisting of four parts -

1. eReaders. Which we’ve looked at above.
2. Online Bookshelf. This is ETI’s equivalent of WhisperNet/the Cloud. They talk about ‘the ability to purchase and access ebooks anywhere, and at any time’ – which sounds identical to the Kindle’s ‘Buy a Book Once. Read it Everywhere’ sales pitch.
3. eBookstore. The equivalent of Kindle Store. ETI mentions relationships with over 24 major publishers. It also talks about accessing the store through an eReader, a browser, an offline catalog, or through an alternate web retailer.
4. Content Conversion and Publication Tools. Apparently, ETI’s founders were founding members of the International Digital Publishing Forum, which created ePub. ETI has a tool, eBook Publisher, which converts books into ePub format. It can process text, ePub, OEBPS, Html, Word, and Powerpoint files. ETI also has a tool, Auto Publisher, which performs pagination, compression, and encryption of ebooks.

It’s clear that ETI’s platform, and its distribution technology and tools, might be pretty valuable too. ETI’s President is on the IPDF board and helps set direction for ePub – which definitely helps since ‘openness’ and ePub are going to be used as weapons in the eReader Wars.

Is Google buying itself an eReader Development Team?

ETI’s management team -

1. John Rivlin, CEO, was the VP of Software Systems at Softbook Press. SoftBook Press released one of the first eReaders in 1998 – the SoftBook. This company was acquired by GemStar, and he was then responsible for design, development, and operations of the Gemstar eBook server platform.
2. Garth Conboy, President, was the VP of Software Engineering at Softbook Press. At Gemstar he was the GM for the Gemstar eBook Group which was a combination of SoftBook Press and the company behind the RocketBook.

More details at the cached page for ETI’s Management Team.

By acquiring ETI Inc. Google instantly gets some of the people with the most experience in eReaders and eBooks.

Closing Thoughts

Google acquired – eReader technology, some extremely valuable patents, a distribution system and platform, two people who know an awful lot about eReaders. It’s a pretty good acquisition.

There are two very likely consequences – a Google eReader will arrive in 2011, Google will try advertising-supported books in 2011 or early 2012.

Decline of interest in making eReaders – CES 2010 vs CES 2011

Here’s a post reviewing the eReaders of CES 2010. Here are some of the eReaders shown off last January (with updates on their status in 2011 included) -

1. Mirasol. Mirasol is the star eReader at CES 2011 – just as it was the star eReader at CES 2010. The first Mirasol device is rumored to be the PocketBook Mirasol and it’s set to debut in Q3, 2011. Note that Mirasol powered eReaders were supposed to launch in 2010 itself – so that Q3, 2011 date isn’t a given.
2. BeBook with Liquavista Color Display. No mention of it now. 
3. PixelQi. Notion Ink’s Adam tablet with Pixel Qi display is available – It’s a Tablet rather than an eReader. No other devices with Pixel Qi at CES 2011.
4. Alex Reader. Arrived and was rather good – didn’t make much impact. 
5. Entouradge Edge. Arrived and was good but very expensive. Didn’t have much impact.
6. Copia. Released a social platform instead of an eReader.
7. MSI Dual Screen eReader. No idea what happened to this.
8. Cool-er. Bankrupt now.
9. Bookeen Orizon. No idea what happened to this.
10. Samsung E6 Reader. This is set to release in the US soon.
11. Aiptek Story Book.
12. Fujitsu. Still only in Japan.
13. Skiff. Closed down.
14. 20 other generic readers. Most didn’t arrive.
15. Acer and Asus had plans for eReaders. Morphed into Tablet Plans. Acer does have one eReader+eWriter set to launch in summer of 2011.

CES 2010 was all about eReaders. More importantly, it was about new companies jumping into the eReader market.

Contrast that with CES 2011 -

1. Hanvon’s color eReader which won’t be released in the US.
2. The two CES 2010 stars – Mirasol and Pixel Qi.
3. iRiver’s Story HD.
4. A few more. Just a few.

From 40 to 50 new eReaders at CES 2010, we’ve gone down to 10 or so at CES 2011. We have almost no new companies trying to release eReaders. Tablets have replaced eReaders as the flavor of the month.

Why has there been such a sharp decline in interest in making eReaders?

For all intents and purposes eReaders are doing great -

1. Amazon has definitely sold millions of eReaders. It might have sold as many as 8 million eReaders in 2010.
2. B&N is selling half a million Nook Color reading tablets a month.
3. B&N has sold millions of Nooks.
4. Every eBook store and app is talking about ‘millions’ of sales and ‘millions’ of customers.
5. eBooks are 10% of the market now.

You have to wonder why there were 50 companies jumping into eReaders in January 2010, when just ‘millions’ of eReaders had been sold, and now there are close to zero companies jumping in – even though 10 million or more ereaders have been sold.

Why is everyone shunning the eReader market?

Here are possible reasons -

1. Companies believe Tablets will kill eReaders.
2. Companies feel Tablets are a much bigger market than eReaders – that Tablets could become as big as laptops, while eReaders will always be a 10-15 million eReaders sold a year market.
3. There are not that many companies excited about eReaders – They find tablets more interesting.
4. With Tablets, companies see an opportunity to compete on price. iPad at $499 means a lot of opportunity for lower priced tablets.
5. Companies feel Amazon has wrapped up the market. That there’s a small 10 million eReaders a year market, and Amazon has most of it.
6. They feel the major markets are US and UK, and those are very difficult to get into. With Tablets they feel there is more of an international market.
7. Companies don’t feel they can compete with the trifecta of Kindle, Kindle Store, and Free WhisperNet.
8. Companies don’t want to deal with Publishers. Can’t really blame them.
9. Companies get a free Operating System they can use with their tablets – the ‘optimized for Tablets’ Android Honeycomb. Even more of an opportunity to cut prices. Note that there is no version of Android optimized for eReaders.

Whatever the reason, it’s pretty clear that companies have moved on from eReaders, and are fully focused on tablets in 2011.

Comparative sizes of eReader and Tablet markets

Apple supposedly sold 10 to 12 million Tablets in 2010. There weren’t really any other Tablets in the market.

Sales of 10 million or so iPads in 2010 might mean a lot of different things -

1. That Apple got most of the market, and the actual market is 15 million Tablets sold a year.
2. That Apple could barely produce enough to meet demand (as is claimed), and the actual market is 30 million tablets a year.
3. 10 million iPads sold is just the tip of the iceberg, and the Tablet market is actually 100 million tablets a year.

Companies jumping into the Tablet market seem to believe one of the latter two possibilities.

In the eReader market, Amazon supposedly sold 5 to 8 million Kindles. B&N and Sony sold a million or more eReaders each. B&N sold a million reading tablets. Other eReader makers probably sold 1 or 2 million eReaders.

What might ’10 million eReaders sold in 2010′ mean?

1. That the eReader market is already stable, and will stay at around 10 million eReaders sold per year.
2. That the eReader market jumped from 4 million eReaders sold in 2009, to 10 million eReaders sold in 2010. That it will continue to boom, and will reach 20 to 30 million eReaders sold per year before it stabilizes.
3. That 2010 eReader sales are just the tip of the iceberg, and that the eventual market will be one hundred million eReaders sold per year.

Most companies seem to believe the first possibility. Perhaps they believe 2. but feel they have no chance.

So, for some indecipherable reason, every company dabbling in eReaders has either assumed that eReaders will stop growing, or it has assumed that Amazon and B&N are unbeatable.

That seems rather defeatist.

It makes very little sense – In a year when every eReader company is claiming record sales, all other companies are running away from the eReader market, instead of towards it.

2010 was a very interesting year. We had a lot of interesting eReader related events - CES 2010 was full of eReaders, we had the advent of $150 eReaders, the iPad arrived, Kindle DX 2 arrived, we got Nook WiFi, we had Kindle WiFi and Kindle 3, the Nook color was released, Sony brought touch to eReaders.

2011 promises to be just as interesting. Let’s look at the eReader events and happenings that are candidates to be the Top 5 eReader events of 2011.

Things left unfinished

There are a lot of things left over from 2010 -

1. Arrival of color eReaders. eInk, Qualcomm, and Pixel Qi all promised or hinted at color eReaders in 2010. In 2011 they get to deliver on their unfulfilled promises.
2. iPad 2 to destroy eReaders. Lots of people thought iPad would kill eReaders. Steve Jobs gets to try to get that done in 2011 with iPad 2. We all know this is rather unlikely – still, it’s fun to let non-readers, who hardly ever buy books, remain delusional and believe they are going to determine the future of books and reading.
3. Google to deliver the most dangerous Kindle competitor. Google eBooks has a lot of potential but it seems rushed – In 2011 Google should have enough time to deliver a full solution.
4. Sony Reader finally adds wireless support? Sony refuses to add wireless support to its Pocket and Touch models. In 2011 we might finally see it change its mind. Kobo took 5-6 months to realize lack of wireless was a deal breaker – Why can’t Sony see this after 3+ years?
5. Plastic Logic to release Que. Plastic Logic delayed its Que proReader after the iPad was launched. In 2011 it should have something out, and we’ll find out if there’s a market for ‘business eReaders’.

A lot of the biggest events of 2011 might be the outcome of things started in 2009 and 2010.

The Reading Tablet Wars

Nook Color has carved out a new market. It’s also managed to capture the dual crowns of best Android tablet and best Tablet under $400.

A few of the top events of 2011 might be events related to the Reading Tablet Wars -

1. Release of a Kindle Reading Tablet.
2. Release of Nook Color 2.
3. Nook Color becoming a major force and hitting the 5 million units sold mark.

The Nook Color and other Reading Tablets will have a major impact in 2011. People still don’t realize that a lot of what they really love about dedicated eReaders is the dedication to readers. A reading tablet that is dedicated to readers and reading will have a lot more impact than people realize.

New eReaders and Color eReaders

This ties in with the ‘Unfinished Business of 2010′ list.

1. We will see a color screen PocketBook eReader powered by Qualcomm Mirasol in Q3, 2011.
2. We will find out which company was the motivation for Qualcomm’s $2 billion investment in Mirasol production facilities.
3. We’ll see Hanvon release their color eReader. Perhaps even in the US.
4. We might see a Color Kindle.
5. One out of Sony Reader and Nook might take a gamble on a color screen eReader.

We also have eReaders we don’t know about yet – a possible GReader, Pixel Qi powered tablets sold as eReaders, perhaps a dedicated reading device from Apple (actually, it’s rather unlikely). Kobo is likely to release a new Kobo Reader.

There are also a few new eReaders being shown off at CES 2011, including the iRiver Story HD which has 1024 by 800 screen resolution.

Kindle 4 and Nook 2 and Sony Reader 675

The Big 3 eReaders of 2009 and 2010 (Kindle, Nook, and Sony Reader) are all likely to see new versions released this year -

1. Kindle 4 might be an improved Kindle with a color screen or a touch screen.
2. Nook 2 has to compete against Kindle 3 – you have to wonder what surprises it might spring.
3. Sony Readers have consistently been the best reading devices. They have also been consistently let down by poor infrastructure and by a terrible ebook store. Will 2011 be different?

Nook 2 is the biggest release here – It sets the tone for Kindle vs Nook for all of 2011. Nook Color is gorgeous, but it’s in a different segment - B&N really, really needs a solid Nook 2 to compete effectively in the dedicated eReader space.

The new Sony Reader releases are important – especially if Sony ties up with Google, and lets the ‘Do No Evil’ Empire provide infrastructure and ebooks.

Could Kobo produce a couple of the most significant events of 2011?

Kobo is threatening on multiple fronts. If it manages to release a killer eReader it might end up with an eReader+Store combo that’s as good as Kindle.

Could Kobo produce something exquisite in 2011?

eReader Wars of 2011 – Strategy Wars

There’s a lot that might happen in terms of strategy -

1. A Tablet might convince people it’s an eReader.
2. Reading tablets might overtake dedicated eReaders.
3. Perhaps we see $100 eReaders and $75 eReaders.
4. There might be a real Kindle DX competitor.
5. Perhaps eReaders make serious headway in education.
6. 2011 might be the year we get eReaders that are subsidized by a subscription plan or a contract of some sort.
7. We might see a great eReader feature that massively increases adoption.
8. An eReader+eWriter combination like the Asus Memo might start stealing eReader market share.
9. Advertising supported books might arrive.

There will be a lot of new strategies implemented in the eReader market this year. A couple of them might prove to be the decisive events of 2011.

Will the Kindle App Store and the Nook App Store take off?

Kindle Apps for Kindles. Nook Apps for the Nook Color.

What impact might they have? Will we see any true killer eReader apps?

Apps that make eReaders even more of a value proposition. Apps that make more people choose an eReader over a Tablet. Apps that make more people buy an eReader.

This is a wildcard. No one knows what apps we might see, or what impact those apps might have. We just know that there’s a lot of potential here.

Could there be developments that take eReaders in a completely different direction?

What if there’s an eReader released that changes the direction eReaders are evolving in – an eReader for kids, an education-focused eReader, an eReader that replaces both the reading and writing aspects of paper.

There is a chance that something is released in 2011 which proves to be a lot more meaningful than color or touch. A development as important as eInk and wireless delivery of books.

There’s a slight chance Nook Color is exactly such a development. We’ll find out this year.

My prediction for Top 5 eReader events of 2011

Here are the 5 things likely to cause the most impact -

1. Kindle Reading Tablet. If this is released, and it looks increasingly likely, it’ll be huge.
2. Google and Sony teaming up. It’s possible, and if it happens it’ll instantly make the Go-ony combination the #2 eReader+eBook solution.
3. $100 and cheaper eReaders. At $100 people start buying for the love of buying – especially if Amazon and B&N learn from Kobo, and start bundling in 1,000 free public domain books. Public domain books that make people feel they instantly got their money’s worth.
4. Nook Color. The significance of the Nook Color isn’t clear yet. The key turning point would be people realizing what the Nook Color is capable of, and the outcome would be Reading Tablets becoming a tens of millions of units a year market.
5. One out of Kindle App Store and Nook App Store taking off. The 1-year head-start of the Kindle App Store versus the army of Android developers the Nook App Store can tap into. One of these is going to result in killer apps, which in turn would have a huge impact on the adoption rate of eReaders and Reading Tablets.

The wild cards are Nook 2, the new Kobo reader, and possibly a strategy shift that throws off everyone - It’s likely to be a subscription/subsidy based eReader. It’ll be a strategy shift that changes how eReaders are sold.

Google is another wildcard. It’s just that it’s so scattered in its focus - Will it be interested in the unsexy world of providing great ebook and eReader services, or will it prefer to make cars that drive themselves?

There are a few events that will get a lot of hype. Here are my reasons why they aren’t very significant -

1. Arrival of the iPad 2. Well, since iPad completely destroyed eReaders - to the point that only 10 million or so eReaders were sold in 2010 – we know that iPad 2 couldn’t possibly have any impact. After all, eReaders are already dead and buried.
2. Release of Color eReaders. Firstly, it’s been a year since they were announced, and 6 months since they were supposed to arrive. They are still being announced, and now are being promised for Q3, 2011. They might not arrive, and they might be released by the wrong companies – companies other than Amazon and B&N. Unless Amazon releases a color Kindle 4, or B&N releases a color Nook 2, we won’t see color eReaders do much.
3. The new Sony Readers. If Sony doesn’t partner with Google it just doesn’t have the store or infrastructure to provide a great experience.
4. eReaders + eWriters. The current solutions are based on touchscreens and styluses and are tacky. The real way to do this is with keyboards and software – usable keyboards and really excellent software.
5. New eReaders. The battle is being fought by ecosystems and pure eReaders will have an incredibly tough time. To win, or to do well, a company has to provide an eReader, a store, and infrastructure – It’s very, very tough to get all three right.

There’s a pretty big disconnect. People who don’t read books think that color screens and the iPad 2 and being able to do more than just read are the real events that will shape the future of books. The truth is that it’s going to be remarkably boring things that shape the future of eReaders – providing more value for money, releasing a device that is EVEN BETTER for reading books, replacing paper, eReader apps, tablets that are focused on reading, expanding to reading of all types.

Mirasol’s Color eReader is mighty impressive – and not scheduled to release until Q3, 2011. Pixel Qi is pretty impressive too – except the lowest priced version of the Pixel Qi screen Adam tablet is $499.

Which means that until Q3, 2011, iPad 2 is the only real threat to Nook Color, and Nook 2 is the only real threat to Kindle 3. Apart from those two potential giants, there are just a couple of minor threats.

The Paltry line-up of eReaders at CES 2011

As compared to CES 2010, when there were dozens of eReaders being shown off, there are just a few eReaders being shown at CES 2011 -

• The Eee Pad Memo is a very impressive eReader + eWriter – Except, it uses a LCD instead of eInk and is priced between $499 and $699.
• iRiver has the new Story HD eReader – a 6″ eReader with 1024 by 768 screen resolution. It supports WiFi, and also supports ePub and PDF with Adobe DRM. It has 3 weeks of battery life. It’ll be available in Q2, 2011. Not really much of a threat.
• Aluratek has its Libre Air eReader – an eReader with a 5″ reflective TFT LCD screen, WiFi, and a $130 price point. Hardly a threat.

If you’re counting, that’s 5 eReaders and eReader-threatening tablets in all of CES 2011. Two of those, Eee Pad Memo and Notion Ink Adam, are closer to Tablets than to eReaders, and priced at $499. Another 2 of those, iRiver Story HD and Aluratek Libre Air, aren’t much of a threat.

That means we have just one new eReader which is a danger to existing eReaders and Reading Tablets. That eReader, Mirasol, doesn’t arrive until Q3, 2011, and might turn out to be the Kindle 4 – which means Kindle would be in zero danger.

Thanks to Engadget for covering eReaders at CES 2011.

There’s so little happening with eReaders at CES 2011, we can’t even do an entire post. Let’s look at other eReader news.

B&N is beginning to beat Amazon in the Vagueness Contest

B&N issued a press release, on January 3rd, to announce that it had a great holiday quarter. It gave no specifics, and said that details would be released in a later January 6th press release. Until Amazon releases a press release that does nothing except announce a future press release, B&N’s Vaguest Press Release Crown is intact.

Well, it’s the 6th, and here are the details which unsurprisingly reveal nothing about Nook sales figures -

1. 67% increase in total sales at BN.com, which were $228.5 million.
2. 8.2% increase in total store sales, which were $1.1 billion.
3. It sold ‘virtually its entire inventory’ of Nook Color and Nook devices. Which is 2 steps below ‘actually its entire inventory’, and 1 step below ‘not shipping outside US and UK’.
4. December 23rd was the biggest sales day in the history of B&N. Probably had to do with last-minute Christmas shopping.
5. Sales in B&N’s Toys & Games Department increased 48% during the holiday season.

On February 22nd, 2011, B&N will discuss in greater detail how it sold virtually its entire inventory of Nooks. It will also attempt to convincingly match Amazon’s habit of Earnings Call Vagueness by not releasing actual Nook sales figures.

One gem, courtesy Publishers Weekly -

B&N CEO William Lynch stated: “Nookcolor was one of the most sought-after gifts this holiday season and has quickly become the bestselling device at Barnes & Noble. 

… 60% of Nookcolor owners are new customers of our Barnes & Noble digital bookstore.”

That suggests at least 40% of the people buying Nook Colors are either using them as Android Tablets and not reading on them, or using Kobo for books, or are rooting them and using Kindle for Android.

Other B&N developments including B&N vs Borders

B&N released a Nook Kids app for the iPad with 100 interactive children’s books available at launch. It’s certainly covering all the bases when it comes to books for children.

B&N is also complaining about the special terms almost-bankrupt Borders is getting from Publishers. That’s interesting – so it’s suggesting that either Publishers give B&N better terms, or let Borders go bankrupt and make B&N super powerful.

Again, courtesy Publishers Weekly -

“We think the playing field should be even,” the B&N statement says.

“We expect publishers to offer same terms to all other booksellers, including Barnes & Noble and independent booksellers.  We fully expect publisher’s will require Borders to pay their bills on the same basis upon which all other booksellers pay theirs.

B&N is being a bit ruthless here. It sees an opportunity to hasten Borders’ slide  into bankruptcy, and is taking advantage.

Are Tablets a threat to eReaders?

With a million different Tablets being introduced, the question is bound to come up – Are all these Tablets a threat to eReaders?

It’s hard to say.

1. For readers, an eReader will always come first.
2. For readers who are LCD compatible, a Reading Tablet like Nook Color is very tempting.
3. For casual readers, it depends on the Tablet. Nook Color is $249. The only three Tablet that look like serious contenders are iPad/iPad 2, Adam, and BlackBerry PlayBook. None of those are close to Nook Color’s $249 price.

Then you’re left with the old argument – ‘Get a device that does more than just read’. Yes, some people will prefer iPad 2 and the Playbook. However, not as many as you’d think.

Firstly, Kindle and Nook are cutting prices relentlessly. Secondly, Nook Color is capable of a lot.

Tablets might take 25% of the reading market. But dedicated eReaders and reading tablets are well-placed to keep the other 75% for themselves.

What about Tablets being a threat to Reading Tablets?

On the surface, there’s little difference. However, the Nook Color focuses you on reading. If you hack it into an Android Tablet, you’ll instantly realize what you’ve lost – that focus on reading. Which is the whole point of making a reading tablet.

So, again, Tablets aren’t really much of a threat to Reading Tablets. If you consider the target customers for a Reading Tablet to be a subset of the people who read 1 or 2 books a month, then the Nook Color is pretty safe.

The big threat to Nook Color will be a Kindle Tablet and color eReaders. General Tablets are not really a threat.

It’s 5 different ways of using touch with reading devices.

There are also different reading apps for the iPhone, and they use the iPhone’s touchscreen in different ways.

All of this makes one wonder – How best could companies use touch with eReaders and reading devices?

Ways not to use Touch in an eReader

It’s easy to start by pointing out things that don’t work -

1. Having separate modes for different actions. Sony Readers force users to switch modes for every function – one mode to highlight, another to turn pages, etc.
2. Having a LCD touchscreen in parallel with an eInk screen. The two screens are so different in nature and speed, that the combination doesn’t work. The Nook felt sluggish and slow partly because the LCD and eInk combination wasn’t working. We don’t even know if such a combination can ever work.
3. Having confusing touch gestures. Currently, most iPad reading apps make a mess of highlighting versus getting the menu to appear. They are also a bit difficult in terms of turning pages versus highlighting.
4. Not allowing easy highlighting across pages. Most reading apps just ignore the possibility that you might want to make a highlight across pages.
5. Keeping the size of pressable areas very small. The bars to extend a highlight are way too small. The options after you tap and hold a word are pretty small too. If a user has tapped a word – he doesn’t need the rest of the screen, and you can make the touchable areas a little bigger, and easier to touch.
6. Making the on-screen menus small, and keeping very little separation between the items in the menu. If the user is changing the font size or type, there’s little point in restricting the menu to 1/5th of the screen size. Give it a little space, and let there be some separation between the choices.
7. Ignoring the fact that fingers get in the way. The iPad’s keyboard has this feature where, when you type, it shows the word you’ve pressed – right above where you’ve touched it (and inadvertently hidden it). That’s a good touch, and reading apps need to figure out how they can use a similar feature.

There are quite a few other things we could go into – However, the most needed changes mostly revolve around two aspects.

1. Making touch actions easy and quick.
2. Making the various touch actions as distinct from each other as possible.

We’re still looking at the first generation of reading devices with touch screens (except Sony Readers) so we can expect a lot of improvements with time.

Let’s continue by looking at some of the things that do work.

Intelligent ways of using Touch

These are all things that have been done already -

1. Using pinch and zoom to change text size.
2. Using a double tap to start or stop automatic scrolling. Then using tilting to change the speed of scrolling.
3. Using a touch in the top right corner to create a bookmark. This has a downside too – it takes some amount of effort. However, it does make intuitive sense.
4. Using a single tap at the edge of the screen to turn pages - In parallel with allowing swipes to turn pages. Both are easy intuitive gestures.
5. Dividing the screen into three vertical portions – Left Page Turn, Menu, Right Page Turn.
6. A little unsure of whether tap and hold on a word is good, or a bit inefficient. Perhaps it’s both.
7. After tap and hold, those little bars you can stretch to create a highlight of as much of the page as you want to highlight.
8. iPad’s keyboard preview feature – which shows what you’re currently touching.
9. Use of double taps, and specific gestures.

There are a lot of dimensions of touch that can be used to differentiate between different gestures, and to allow for more gestures – number of touches, type of gesture, tilting, placement on the screen, placement relative to words, order of gestures, and so forth.

It makes you wonder what will be done in the coming years.

Suggestions for making the most out of a touchscreen

A few suggestions -

1. The most often used actions should be the simplest. Which would suggest finding the simplest way to do page turns - A single tap at the edge and/or a swipe work quite well. Perhaps supplement them with an auto-scroll timer, and a scrolling feature.
2. The different actions should be as distinct from each other as possible.
3. Keep it to the bare minimum set of actions – Add an advanced mode for power users.
4. Multiple steps should be avoided as much as possible. Users would much rather use a double tap than navigate a two-step action menu.
5. There should be an option for personalization – so users can use actions they are comfortable with.
6. For advanced users there should be the option to unlock an advanced set of gestures.
7. Any pressable area should be large enough. So it doesn’t take a ton of focus to get it right.
8. The cost of a wrong touch should be small – For example, if you highlight the wrong phrase - There should be an easy way to undo it or edit it.
9. When there are multiple options – they should have both large pressable buttons and separation. Having them right next to each other puts stress on the user.
10. Use all the touch options available. Why not replace tap and hold with – circle a word for the meaning, highlight a phrase using your finger as a highlighter, draw a question mark to search on Google. The finger highlighting has potential to interfere with page turns - perhaps it’s double tap and then highlight.
11. Use the various touch dimensions available to make gestures as distinct from each other as possible. We have tilting (for devices with accelerometers), voice commands (for devices with microphones), different shapes, different screen areas, and a lot more.
12. Improve the touch screen quality – how well it catches where the touch was, how fast it responds, and so forth.

It really does feel like we’re in the First Generation of touchscreen devices when it comes to reading.

Some of the best uses of touch are being implemented in iPhone reading apps. Nook Color has done a pretty good job too. Sony Reader makes a royal mess. iPad reading apps make decent use of touch.

It gives Amazon an opportunity – when it releases a touch Kindle, it can take the best of what’s been done so far.

What about Multi-Touch?

Reading Apps, for the most part, don’t really use Multi-touch.

1. Imagine if you could touch with one finger where you wanted your highlight to start, and touch with your other finger the ending point.
2. Another good use would be for editing highlights, and for moving notes around.
3. One multi-touch gesture that’s already been implemented well is using pinch and zoom for changing text size.
4. We could use multi-touch to do quick screen orientation changes - for when the auto-orientation is turned off.
5. For search results, multi-touch would allow choosing of more than one search result. It would also allow for traversing search results in interesting ways.

Will have to think more about this. Hardly anyone is using multi-touch capabilities in reading devices. There might be some really useful things that can be done.

It really does feel like eReader makers don’t really realize all the things they can do with their touch screens. The company that figures it out first will have a big advantage. Of course, given that iPhone and iPad allow reading apps, there’s a good chance they’ll be the first ones to get reading apps that use touch in really great new ways.