Would Google Play, Google Apps be a negative for Kindle Fire HD Owners?

Posted on May 14, 2013 by switch11

It’s very interesting to see the reaction of existing Nook HD and HD+ owners to the addition of Google Play to Nook HD and HD+.

How Nook owners react to Google Play is important and relevant because Amazon MIGHT (and the key word is MIGHT) add Google Play to Kindle Fire HD at some point of time in the future. It has to either add Google Play or cut the price or come up with some other means to compete effectively.

Kindle Fire HD needs to find some competitive advantages.

The 30-40-30 Divide – Some Nook Owners actually don’t want Google Play

While the reaction in the Press has been almost unanimous.

Nook HD with Google Play is now the best Android Tablet. Nook HD with Google Play is ‘One of the Best’ Android Tablets now. Nook HD is so open its battery and processor are falling out.

The reaction from users, actual users who paid $199 to buy the Nook HD before it had Google Play, is mixed.

  1. Approximately 30% love it. They think it makes Nook HD and HD+ a better device. Some of them talk about buying more Nook HDs for their family. Note: These are people who think it’s a definite improvement. They seem to be veering towards either splitting purchases between B&N and Google or shifting over to Google.
  2. Approximately 40% like it but prefer the Nook Store. What does that mean? They like having Google Play as an option. They still consider the in-built Nook ebook store and the Nook Videos Store and the Nook App Store as their first choice.
  3. The most interesting group are the 30% who don’t like the change. There are many reasons (which we’ll get into later). However, there is a very clear group of users that doesn’t like the addition of Google Play.

Let’s start by understanding the pros and cons of adding Google Play to a device. This will set the tone for the rest of the post.

What Google Play actually brings to the Tablet

There are a lot of good things about having Google Play added to a Tablet -

  1. Choice in App Stores. You get the existing App Store plus you get Google Play.
  2. Choice in eBook Stores. You get apps for Amazon, B&N, Kobo, Blio, etc. via Google Play. Suddenly your device can access all the major ebook stores. Kindle Fire HD owners would be able to buy and read books from B&N and Kobo and any ebook store that makes an Android App.
  3. Choice in Movie and Music Stores. You get Google Videos and Music. That forces the device maker to improve their own offerings.
  4. Wider Range of Apps. Amazon’s Kindle Fire Store has 50,000 to 60,000 Apps. Perhaps 500 to 1,500 of those are top quality. Android Store has 700,000 Apps. Perhaps 3,000 of them are top quality, optimized for Tablets, and not yet available in Kindle Fire App Store. An increase from 1,500 top quality apps to 4,500 top quality apps is a tripling and very significant. This is especially important if you want a niche app or a local app. Those are mostly made for Apple App Store and Android App Store.
  5. Official Google Apps. If you want GMail or Google Maps or another official Google App, now you get it.
  6. Lots of Free Apps. Android is an advertising based platform. Amazon is a mix of advertising and paid. The number of free apps in the Android Store is massive. So you can now, if you choose so, stop paying for apps completely.
  7. Increase in Value of the Tablet. The resale value just went up because there will now be a lot more people interested in the Tablet.

There are, unfortunately, some bad things about getting Google Play (it might be hard to believe, but it isn’t all unicorns and puppies) -

  1. The inclusion of Google Play is only allowed if a bunch of Google Apps are also installed. Some are set as defaults. These Apps are a problem because they run in the background and do all sorts of strange things. They send data to Google’s Cloud and download ads and eat up battery life. Nook owners have reported huge decreases in battery life (cut to 1/4th, cut to 1/2). Decreases that went away when these Nook owners disabled the default Google Apps. Note: This is possible due to Nook HD and HD+ having a profiles feature that lets you disable apps for certain profiles. Not sure if a similar feature exists for Kindle Fire HD.
  2. The default browser gets replaced by Chrome. This is perhaps a requirement for getting Google Play store. This creates two problems – you are switched to a browser you might not be familiar with, the Tablet version of Chrome is terrible (it’s the only version I’ve used). It’s interesting how many Nook users are switching to another browser (over 50% of them). Makes me wonder how Chrome managed to get a large market share on the Desktop.
  3. Google Play has more high quality Tablet optimized apps (4,000 or more versus 1,500 or so for Amazon Store). However, the signal to noise ratio is poor. You have to weed through 700,000 Apps to get to those 4,000 Apps. At least with the Kindle Fire App Store you know there’s some level of curation. Finding 4,000 top-notch apps in a store of 700,000 (approximately 1 out of 200) is a bit of a pain. By comparison, in the Kindle Fire App Store, you can find 1,500 top-notch apps out of the 60,000 available (1 out of 40). So it’s roughly 4-5 times tougher to find good apps in the Android Store.
  4. Google Play Store is not curated. Hello Viruses & Malware! Google Play Store is Open. You can just write your app, bundle any virus or malware you like into the App, and submit it. There’s no human curation or human check. Recently, tens of millions of Android devices got the ‘Bad News’ malware through Android Apps. You need an Anti-Virus and Anti-Malware program. Which has to run all the time to work well. There goes performance and speed.
  5. Loss of Familiarity. You go from the nice closed Amazon ecosystem that you are used to, to an ecosystem that’s very open and a bit wild. Google software is very aggressive about things like checking for updates. There are lots of options everywhere. It’s a lot more technical. It’s not as user-friendly. One thing that Kindle Fire HD and Nook HD did very well is hide a lot of the complexity and make things dead simple to use. Add back Google Apps and Google Play and you run into problems. Firstly, it’s new and unfamiliar. Secondly, it’s not that simple to use. Thirdly, the Google Play store and apps will clash with the Kindle App Store and Apps for resources.
  6. Google gets to track you. Keep in mind that this is a company that hopes to one day ‘tell you what you should do, even before you realize it yourself’. It gets a wealth of information about you and your behavior. You can minimize this by not using a Google browser and by avoiding the in-built Google Apps. I doubt Google has access to user data from non-Google Browsers and from non-Google Apps.
  7. Lots of Android Apps track your data and sell it. Since the focus is on free Apps, it creates incentives for the developers to find other ways to make money. One is Advertisements. Another is In-App Purchases (watch out if you have kids). The most dangerous is ‘Selling User Data’. There are lots of companies willing to buy user data profiles and user data. Quite a few Android developers do collect and sell data. A study found that even some of the big brands do this on Android.

As you can see, it’s not all peaches and cream in the Open Land of the Free Everything.

Whether it be the battery life and wireless costs of apps running in the background and downloading ads. Whether it be the privacy lost as apps track you and upload your usage data. Whether it be the always running Google Apps and their own data collection. Whether it be the risk of viruses. You’ve suddenly gone from a nice, safe ecosystem to a wildly open and openly wild ecosystem.

Revisiting the 40-30-30 Divide

Now, the 40-30-30 divide makes more sense -

  1. The first 30% either don’t care about or don’t know about the hidden costs of having Google’s Open and Benevolent App Store. For them, all that matters is the wider choice of apps, and the fact that most of them are free.
  2. The second 40% like having the choice. However, either due to familiarity with, and preference for, the in-built App Store, or due to a good understanding of the risks of the Android Store, these users prefer the in-built store. Google Play is just a good second option.
  3. The third 30% are the users who either just don’t need, or just don’t like, the Google App Store. Perhaps some of them understand the drawbacks of having an uncurated, open, and wild App Store and the downsides of always running Google Apps. Perhaps they simply don’t like the trade-off.

What was stunning to me was that 70% of Nook HD owners didn’t care very much about the addition of Google Play Store. Even more stunning was that 30% of users disliked it. Sometimes we take what the tech press preaches as gospel. Then we’re hit by actual users’ reality.

Of course, we aren’t addressing all the people who will buy Nook HD and HD+ now, due to the availability of the Google Play Store. Perhaps millions. However, if we look at the 1 million or so users who bought Nook HD and HD+, it’s very interesting to see that Google Play matters a lot to only 30%.

Perhaps it’s self-selection bias. Those most likely to get a Kindle Fire HD or a Nook HD are probably the users who care least about the Google Play Store.

Whatever the reason, the reaction of Nook HD owners to Google Play Store might hold some important lessons for Amazon.

Existing Kindle Fire HD users might not care very much about Google Play Store

If Kindle Fire HD owners are similar to Nook HD owners (and there is a lot of similarity), 70% of Kindle Fire HD and Kindle Fire owners don’t care very much about having Google Play Store.

30% of existing Kindle Fire HD owners might actively dislike the addition of the Google Play Store. 40% might not care very much whether or not it exists.

It’s important to note that all/most of these users bought Kindle Fire HD knowing that it didn’t have Google Play Store.

Thus, the question changes from

  • What should Amazon do to compete with Nook HD? Should it add Google Play Store?

to

  • What percentage of future Kindle Fire HD owners want Google Play? What percentage consider the lack of availability of Google Play Store on Kindle Fire HD a deal breaker?

My assumption would be that only 30% of current Kindle Fire HD owners, and only 35% to 40% of prospective Kindle Fire HD owners, care deeply about Google Play Store.

That’s a pretty big number. No company in the Tablet Space can afford to turn away 35% to 40% of prospective customers. However, what’s really surprising to me is the other part of the equation.

  1. That 60% to 65% of people who will EVER buy a Kindle Fire HD or any Kindle Fire don’t care. They simply don’t care enough about Google Play for it to be a deal breaker.
  2. That nearly half of these people consider the absence of Google Play and Google Apps on the Kindle Fire HD a good thing.

Of course, there’s another twist. What type of customers is Amazon after? Does Amazon want Google Android type customers or does it want Apple iPad type customers?

Adding Google Play might be the death knell for Amazon’s hopes of competing with iPad and iPad Mini

In the above discussions we’ve considered ‘People looking to buy an Android Tablet’.

What about ‘People looking to buy the Best Tablet’?

That’s where things get really interesting. All the negatives of adding Google Play Store to the Kindle Fire HD matter to these people.

Quick Reminder – Google Apps are preinstalled and forced on users, Chrome browser is forced on users, it’s difficult to find high quality apps in the Google Play Store, there’s a risk of catching viruses and spyware, Google and some Android Apps track you and take your information.

Additional Note: Most Android software is not intuitive or user friendly (including Google’s own Apps). It’s not just the always running and always collecting data aspects, it’s also the lack of ease of use and the lack of simplicity.

These are all things that might not matter much to users looking for ‘The Cheapest Tablet with the most Free Apps’. They matter a lot to users looking for ‘The Best Tablet with the Best Experience and the Best Apps’.

Quite interestingly, users who want quality, and who are willing to pay for quality, are much likelier to want to avoid the downsides of the Google Android experience. That makes a lot of sense.

Please Note: It’s not an indictment of Android. Android is excellent for users who are tech-savvy or who are OK with the model of Free Software supported by advertising and data collection. Android is great for a particular set of users. We’re talking about a different set of users.

Users who are willing to pay $250 and $350 and $450 and $550 for Tablets. Well, they might not be too happy if Amazon moves away from the curated, safe, no-hassles ecosystem of Amazon’s Kindle Fire HD and moves towards Google’s Open and Chaotic ecosystem.

In fact, they probably want the exact opposite – For Kindle Fire HD to become easier and higher quality and more curated. To save them even more times and hassle. To be even more intuitive.

Think about the idea Tablet Experience if you don’t have tight budgetary restrictions and aren’t technologically inclined - Extreme Ease of Use, High Quality Curation, Complete Protection against Malware and Viruses, More Simplicity, No Hassles, Not having to think too much to get things done.

Amazon has to pick who it competes against

I think Jeff Bezos had the right idea when he started the whole ‘The Best Tablet … At Any Price’ iPad vs Kindle Fire HD comparison last year.

He just had the wrong Tablet.

The Kindle Fire HD is still a long ways from competing against the iPad Mini and the iPad. Let alone winning. However, setting up the ‘Kindle Fire HD vs iPad’ comparison was excellent for a few reasons.

  1. It set the bar high. Why compete against the 2nd best Tablet when you can compete against the best.
  2. It creates a lot of buzz. The Press are all in a tizzy that someone would dare compete with their darling Apple.
  3. It goes after the best customers. Those who are willing to pay for quality in hardware, software, ecosystem and experience.

It’s interesting to notice that Microsoft is doing something similar. Surface Pro and RT aren’t aimed at the Android crowd. They’re aimed at the corporate and high-end markets.

Perhaps more and more companies are realizing that it’s better to get 80% of the Profits and 20% of the Overall Market. Let someone else take all the customers of low profitability. Perhaps companies are realizing that if Samsung can use Apple’s model to start eating up Apple’s profit streams, then so can they.

Amazon has a very interesting decision to make as Android gobbles up more and more Tablet Market Share. As B&N and other players capitulate to the Little Green Peeping Tom Robot. Does it want to replace Apple? Does it want to split Apple’s market? Does it want to replace Android?

Kindle Fire HD’s future direction, and its survival, will depend on what option Amazon chooses.

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Kindle Fire HD thoughts – 10 Kindle Fire HD musings

Posted on May 14, 2013 by switch11

Just Kindle Fire HD thoughts that have been on my mind -

  1. If Amazon is making a Kindle Phone 3D with holographic screen technology, and it is a big IF, then it would make sense to make a high-end Kindle Fire HD with the same technology. Surely, in a world where everyone is looking to Apple for innovation, and where Apple is stuck thinking flat design and thinner casing are innovations, a Tablet with holographic 3D technology would be a hit. It might even get some hipster baristas and ‘look, I can bump other Samsung Phones’ people to switch allegiance.
  2. Is Amazon too late to the smart phone market? TechCrunch shares a Gartner Report that says 75% of Smartphones shipped in Q1 were Android, with 30% being Samsung. Apple had 18% market share (although perhaps 57% of the profit share). Total sales were flat. So Kindle Phone might run into a few big problems – The Market stops growing, The Market has too much competition, There are entrenched ecosystems. On the other hand, it’s such a huge market. There also doesn’t seem to be any REAL innovation going on (things like Siri and bumping phones and NFC don’t seem revolutionary to me). It’s like we’re in 2007 and need a new envisioning of the phone. The actual Smart Phone Market Share Report from Gartner is worth reading – the tables are fascinating.
  3. Is Nook HD stealing Kindle Fire HD Sales? With B&N having added Google Play to Nook HD and with the Mother’s Day Sale at $149, Amazon was forced to reduce the price of the Kindle Fire HD to $179. However, that was just a Mother’s Day discount plus it doesn’t seem enough. Google Play is a big deal. Kindle Fire HD might need a permanent discount. At some point Amazon will have to make a move. Perhaps a permanent price cut to $159. Perhaps add Google Play. Amazon might be super reluctant to open up its ecosystem to Google, so the price cut seems the path it will take.
  4. Will the new Google Nexus 7 2 steal Kindle Fire HD Sales? If the rumors hold up, Nexus 7 2 will be a pretty compelling device. IGN claims a 1920 by 1200 screen resolution, a NFC chip, wireless charging, a HD front camera, and a 5MP rear camera. All this while keeping the price at $199. That screen sounds interesting and wireless charging doesn’t sound bad either.
  5. What iPad Mini will Apple release? How will it impact Kindle Fire HD? If Apple really releases an iPad Mini Retina this year, it will definitely have significant impact on Kindle Fire HD sales. Perhaps worse are the rumors that iPad Mini Retina is being delayed to 2014. Why? Because the rumors claim Apple will release a cheap iPad Mini 2 to make up for the delay of the iPad Mini Retina. A cheap $229 iPad Mini 2 would do a lot more damage to Kindle Fire HD sales than a $349 Retina iPad Mini.
  6. Amazon has a lot of patents that could be used to supply technology for future Kindle Fire HDs. The Foldable Tablet patent. The Gesture Recognition One. Eye Tracking. Advertisements inside eBooks. Amazon also bought Liquavista (Color eInk Technology for Color Kindle) and that screen might make it to a future Kindle Fire HD.
  7. There were rumors that Microsoft was looking to buy B&N’s Nook division. The rumors also claimed that Nook eReader and Tablet sales were a combined 10 million units. What does that say about Kindle and Kindle Fire sales? It suggests a range of 18 million to 30 million total sales for Kindles and Kindle Fires. Amazon still uses ‘millions of Kindle Fires’ when talking about the opportunity for Kindle Fire App developers. Why would it miss the opportunity to crow about ‘tens of millions of Kindle Fires’? Could Kindle Fire sales be less than 10 million? I would have thought perhaps 12 to 15 million Kindle Fires have been sold so far. Perhaps it’s less.
  8. At what point does increasing screen resolution for Tablets become too much? Kindle Fire HD has 1280 by 800 and it’s pretty good. Nook HD has 1440 by 900 and it’s better but not by much. If Google Nexus 7 2 really has 1920 by 1200 screen resolution that would mean it has roughly the same screen resolution on a 7″ Tablet as the Kindle Fire HD 8.9″ and Nook HD+ have on 9″ Tablets. Is it even meaningful? Do we really need to be able to see every eyelash?
  9. Is Wearable Computing going to arrive in 2014? How will it impact Kindle Fire HD and Tablets? There are very strong rumors that in addition to Google Glass we’ll see wearable computing from multiple other companies (Samsung, Sony, Microsoft, Apple). We already have some smart watches available (the Pebble is one). Will these cut into Tablet sales? The argument is that they will be much more convenient and portable than Tablets. That they will have the ‘New’ and ‘Cool’ factor. The counter-argument is that the screen size will be too small.
  10. What is Amazon’s pain threshold for Kindle Fire Tablet Sales? Let’s suppose that wearable computing becomes big and/or some revolutionary new Tablet arrives (no, not with scented page turns). Kindle Fire HD Sales slow down. Would Amazon stick with the Kindle Fire? For how long?

The last point is one that’s been on my mind. Nook HD is rumored to be the last B&N Tablet. The opening up of Nook HD and HD+ to Google Play is already a capitulation of all the investment B&N put into the Nook. What if Amazon faces the same situation in 6 to 12 months? Kindle Fire HD sales slowing down. Unsold stock. Would it capitulate? Would it keep fighting the Tablet Wars? For how long?

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Kindle Fire HD Coupon – Kindle Fire HD $179 with $20 off Coupon

Posted on May 6, 2013 by switch11

Amazon has just announced a Kindle Fire HD Coupon for Mother’s Day. Kindle Fire HD is now $179 if you use this $20 off Coupon.

Kindle Fire HD Coupon: FIRE4MOM. Pyromaniacs of the world – Please don’t take this as a green light to burn the outhouse or the garage.

For moms who love movies, magazines, books and more, Kindle Fire HD is the perfect gift. Down from $199 to $179 through Mother’s Day, enter FIRE4MOM at checkout to redeem the discount.

B&N recently took the semi-suicidal step of opening up Google Play Store for Nook HD and Nook HD+. Not content with that little spark, B&N also announced a $50 drop in Nook HD prices to $149 and a massive $90 drop in Nook HD+ prices to $179.

I was hoping Amazon would match – either the Google Play Store addition, or the price drops. Well, a $20 price drop isn’t bad.

Kindle Fire HD Coupon – Is $20 off a good deal?

It’s a good deal but not a great one.

While Amazon OFTEN drops the price of the Kindle Fire HD+, it doesn’t often drop the price of the Kindle Fire HD. There are just 1 or 2 sales I can think of. One was centered around either Black Friday or Holiday Season, and the other was a $20 coupon (if my memory serves me correctly).

$20 off Kindle Fire HD is not bad.

Kindle Fire HD Coupon – Kindle Fire HD at $179 or Nook HD at $149?

This is a tough decision.

Kindle Fire HD used to have a much better ecosystem, but Nook HD now has Google Play Store giving it the edge there.

Both are based on Android 4.0 – However, Kindle Fire HD’s software is more polished.

If you’re an Amazon customer, then Kindle Fire HD is much better. If you’re a B&N customer, then Nook HD is much better.

Nook HD hardware is better (especially the screen) but Kindle Fire HD has better speakers. The difference isn’t much.

Nook HD adding Google Play Store adds in the fact that you can get Kindle for Android and read your Kindle books on Nook HD.

So it’s a very tough decision. You should consider both devices. Nook HD at $149 and Kindle Fire HD at $179 are both real steals.

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Kindle Fire China – Amazon ready to launch Kindle Fire in China?

Posted on May 5, 2013 by switch11

Steven Millward at Tech in Asia reports on Amazon launching the Kindle Fire & Kindle Phone App Store in China. Perhaps we should we call it ‘Amazon App Store’ and pretend its main purpose is something other than selling Kindle Phones and Kindle Fires.

Interestingly, absolutely no one in the US Press is reporting on this. Contrast that with the 200 or 300 technology blogs and newspapers that reported on Nook HD and HD+ opening up to Google Play Store. It’s a striking example of how lost in its own world the main stream tech press can be. The #2 best-selling Tablet in the US will soon be expanding to China and that’s not considered news worthy?

Why Kindle Fire launching in China is a big, big deal

Well, here are a few reasons -

  1. Apple had 18.8% of its earnings from China in the last quarter ($8.2 billion) and considers China to be its most important country going forward (I doubt the latter part, perhaps Apple means ‘most important after US’).
  2. For what it is worth (perhaps nothing at all), some analysts are even saying that China saved Apple’s Earnings in the last quarter.
  3. Amazon currently sells ZERO Kindle Fires officially in China.
  4. Android Tablets dominate in China. If Amazon can have the bestselling Android Tablet in China then it can sell A TON of Kindle Fires. Even being the #2 Bestselling Android Tablet would work wonders for Kindle Fire sales.
  5. Amazon China has been around for a long time. The original company (Joyo) has been selling books since 1999. So Amazon would go in with a trusted brand. Perhaps not as trusted as Apple. However, definitely trusted and well-known to users.
  6. Kindle Fire launching in China would be a precursor to Kindle Phone launching in China. China has the LARGEST population of smart phone users in the world. The huge market opportunity for Kindle Phone and Kindle Fire might even make China the 3rd most important overall market for Amazon after US and UK.
  7. Kindle Fire at $149 and $199 (expected prices for launch) would mean the market for Kindle Fire might be 2-4 times that of the higher priced iPad Mini and iPad.
  8. Kindle Phone being priced lower than iPhone – Again, the market might be 2-4 times larger.

We could just sit here all day and talk about why a market of 1 billion people, hundreds of millions of smart phone owners, and 25+ million Tablet owners is crucial for Amazon. The truth is that Kindle Fire launching in China is a very big deal. Not just for Amazon – also for a lot of other companies. What impact will it have on Apple’s sales? What lessons will it hold for other US companies that want to expand to China?

Will Kindle Fire sell well in China?

This is a tough question for a few reasons -

  1. The first factor is that iPad and iPad Mini have a lot of ‘status signalling power’ in China. This is supposed to be a big deal in China (not an expert, so take it with a grain of salt). Amazon’s Kindle Fire probably will not.
  2. The second factor is that Android Tablets dominate in China. Can Kindle Fire prove more attractive than the Android Tablets already available.
  3. The third factor is that there is a huge market in China for white label Android Tablets in the $50 to $100 range. If Amazon tries the ‘low price, high value’ approach it might find that particular market segment already flooded and overwhelmed by white label tablets.

Update: Google Play apparently doesn’t support paid apps in China. That’s a bit ridiculous. This means that Amazon’s Kindle Fire & Kindle Phone App Store will support paid apps BEFORE Google Play. Making it a great choice for developers and increasing its chances.

Amazon has to pull off a double trick – Maintain ‘Status Signalling Power’ and also undercut Apple on price significantly.

It also has to make its app store seem as attractive as Android. Towards this end it has signed up with companies like Tencent and SINA to provide their well established games and apps via the Amazon App Store. However, there’s no guarantee Chinese users will embrace an App Store that is 1/10th the size of the Android Store and 1/5th the size of the iPad Store. In terms of Tablet optimized apps, perhaps even smaller.

Kindle Fire China – Closing Thoughts

As the US and UK and European markets get saturated and very competitive (especially with Windows 8 Tablets arriving), the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) are critical in deciding who the big winners and losers will be. This is true for both Smartphones and Tablets.

Amazon is making moves in all 4 BRIC countries -

  1. In Brazil it’s using Kindle and ebooks. Perhaps other moves too.
  2. In Russia there are reports it has gotten permission to start selling goods and services.
  3. In India it’s struck a deal for selling Kindle Fires with the same distributor that distributes iPads and iPad Minis. It has also been buying some companies in India.
  4. In China, it’s making a variety of moves including this move i.e. expanding the Kindle Fire & Kindle Phone App Store to China.

In my opinion, China is the most important of the BRIC countries. India still doesn’t have as much buying power. India is also more competitive because there are far fewer limitations like language – The number of companies that will take China seriously will be lower because of the hassles. Brazil and Russia just aren’t big enough population wise to compete. That leaves China as the single most appealing market out of the BRIC countries.

The expansion of the Kindle Fire & Kindle Phone App Store to China is a very, very big deal. It suggests that by end of 2013 both Kindle Fire and Kindle Phone (assuming it launches in 2013) will be sold in China.

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Will Amazon add Google Play Store to Kindle Fire?

Posted on May 3, 2013 by switch11

B&N has really shaken things up by adding Google Play to Nook HD and HD+. Have been reading comments on articles and forums. It’s interesting to see the number of people who -

  1. Now think Nook HD is the best pure Android Tablet. This includes some big tech bloggers like the one at Verge who ‘wanted to make sweet love to iPhone 5′ (Yes, he actually wrote that).
  2. Have now added Nook HD and HD+ to their list of ‘options to consider for their next tablet’.
  3. Have decided to add a HD or HD+ to their set of Tablets and/or devices.

A LOT of people suddenly are claiming that they will buy and/or consider buying a Nook HD.

Of course, all these data points come with a giant question mark. The people most likely to appreciate Google Play Store on a Nook HD, also happen to be the ones most likely to read tech blogs and comment on them.

It is, however, not out of the realm of possibility that B&N has expanded its market by 50% to 100% with one move. If there are a bunch of tech journalists (and we do use the word journalist lightly) now applauding Nook HD as the ‘Best Android Tablet’ then that will translate into sales sooner or later.

All of this presents quite a big problem for Amazon.

The Tablet Decision Earlier Versus the Tablet Decision Now

Before B&N added Play Store, the Tablet Buying Decision was (think Holiday Season 2012) -

  1. iPad or Something Else. 50% to 60% chose the iPad.
  2. If Something Else, then Google Nexus 7 or Kindle Fire or Samsung or Nook.
  3. If Google Play is a factor, then Nexus 7 or Samsung. Neither of which are super impressive (You have to factor out the ‘OMG it’s pure Google’ factor which makes a lot of people assume Nexus 7 is better than it is). That left two impressive and impressively cheap Tablets – Kindle Fire HD and Nook HD.
  4. Kindle Fire HD had a much better ecosystem than Nook HD. This meant it became the BEST Android based tablet for anyone who didn’t absolutely have to have Google Play Store. It became a strong #1 choice overall because NONE of the Android Based Tablets with Google Play Store were as good as Kindle Fire (Nexus 7 does not really compare with Kindle Fire HD).
  5. All of this meant that Kindle Fire HD was the ‘Best non-iPad Tablet’ for enough people. This led to great sales for Kindle Fire HD.

Now that B&N has added the Play Store to Nook HD and Nook HD+, the Tablet Buying Decision becomes -

  1. iPad or Something Else. 45% to 50% will choose iPad.
  2. If Something Else, then Nexus 7 or Nook or Kindle Fire or Samsung.
  3. If Google Play is a factor, then Nook HD is now the BEST Android Tablet with Google Play. If you detach any personal feelings you might have about the companies, it’s a very clear decision.
  4. If Google Play is not a factor, then Nook HD compares very favorably to Kindle Fire HD because it has fixed its ecosystem disadvantage. You get Nook Store, Google Play Store, and apps for Kindle and Kobo. Nook HD’s Ecosystem is now a major strength instead of a major weakness.
  5. This means that Nook HD is now ‘Best non-iPad Tablet’ often enough to lead to solid, solid sales. It also means that Kindle Fire is no longer the most frequent choice for ‘Best non-iPad Tablet’.

Think of it as – The automatic #2 choice in the Tablet Market is now Nook HD and not Kindle Fire HD. For the majority of people.

Will this really impact Kindle Fire HD and Amazon

Yes.

Firstly, just a 45% to 60% share of the Tablet pie is available for Android Tablets. Rest goes to iPad.

Secondly, that non-iPad Tablet share of the pie is split between LOTS of Tablets. It’s also being eaten into by Windows 8 Tablets.

Thirdly, only the #1 and #2 Android Tablets (#2 and #3 overall Tablets) are going to do well enough to lead to future profits and developer mind share and a consistent stream of apps.

Kindle Fire was the best Android Tablet because of three main reasons – Solid device, Amazon brand and trust, Solid ecosystem.

Nook HD was losing to Kindle Fire because of – Weak Software, Weak Ecosystem, no ‘Nook Tablet’ brand or association.

By adding Google Play, it fixes two things – Firstly, it has a Very Strong Ecosystem now. Secondly, the Press love it and will create a ‘Nook is the best Android Tablet’ narrative.

Keep in mind that a lot of Android Tablet promotion is tied to the ‘open, do no evil, sharing is caring’ party line. Android people just LOVE the magical ‘openness’ of Android. B&N becoming ‘open’ means Nook HD is suddenly in line with the aspirations and dreams and identity of Android people.

It’s a pretty big deal. You can read the posts and see that people are so happy that B&N has ‘seen the light of openness’. It’s not just in the comments. Lots of the articles themselves have this rather interesting ‘finally, you have seen the light, my dear lost B&N’ quality about them.

People love someone who has ‘seen the light’ more than those who never strayed from the path of righteousness

Google Nexus 7 now becomes boring. Where’s the story and magic in a device that was always open?

On the other hand, Nook HD and HD+ present the press and Android people with the perfect opportunity – Look, it really does help to be open and good and do no evil. B&N Nook was closed and was dying. It then embraced openness and it prospered.

The Press are absolutely going to pump up Nook HD and HD+. Android people are 100% going to buy Nook devices.

Nook HD and HD+ succeeding now becomes part of the Android Dream.

What does that mean?

Android loving press and people will put their weight behind Nook HD and HD+.

Nook sales will increase at least 50% just from Android People and from gushing Press Coverage. Instead of talking about the ‘sluggish software’ (which is only an issue on closed tablets), the Press will talk about the Strong and Open Ecosystem.

Sales might even double. Plus the normal every day user will hear ‘Nook HD is Best Android Tablet’ so often, that sales to everyday users might increase too.

There wasn’t really a beautiful hardware Android Tablet. Nexus 7 was good but not beautiful. Now there is. And it’s OPEN.

B&N’s Nook HD and HD+ now have 710,000 Apps Versus Kindle Fire’s 50,000 to 60,000 Apps

Here’s the actual break up (assumptions) -

  1. Tablet optimized Apps – 10K from Nook Store and 20K from Play Store. That’s 30K for Nook HD. Kindle Fire HD – 15K out of the 50K apps are tablet optimized.
  2. ‘Work somewhat decently on Tablets’ Apps – 10K from Nook Store and 50K from Play Store. That’s 60K for Nook HD. Kindle Fire HD – 25K out of the 50K.
  3. Total Apps (whether or not they work) – 710,000 for Nook HD. 60,000 for Kindle Fire HD.

Guess which comparison the Press will fixate on?

Keep in mind that Nook HD is now the prodigal son who has returned home. The Press will magically forget to mention that only 30,000 out of those 710,000 Apps are actually optimized to work well on Android Tablets.

How long will it take Kindle Fire Store to get from 60,000 total Apps to 710,000 total Apps. Well, it might never happen. There might never be 710,000 apps in the Kindle Fire HD store. If Kindle Fire HD Store actually hits 710,000 total apps it might take 3 to 4 years. Android Store will have 2 million Apps by then. It’s really, really hard for Amazon to catch up.

Amazon has well and truly lost the ‘We have more Apps that will never work on your Tablet’ battle. The Press will never mention that it’s actually 15,000 Tablet optimized Apps on Kindle Fire HD Versus 30,000 Tablet Optimized Apps on Nook HD. It’ll always be 50,000 Versus 710,000.

Anyone who wants Play Store, or for whom Apps are a big deal – Nook HD wins almost every time over Kindle Fire HD.

Amazon’s Kindle Fire HD is in a LOT of trouble

Notice all the Kindle Fire HD 8.9″ sales? Notice the price drop of the Kindle Fire HD? Notice how Amazon is, for the first time ever, discounting Kindle devices within 3-4 months of launch?

Take a look – Amazing Shrinking Price of Kindle Fire HD 8.9″.

That suggests Kindle Fire HD and Kindle Fire HD 8.9″ sales were already under pressure from iPad Mini (and to an extent from Nexus 7).

Nook HD just went from ‘beautiful device with buggy software and tiny ecosystem’ to ‘beautiful device with massive ecosystem and buggy software’. It’s become very compelling.

There will now be three devices cutting into Kindle sales – iPad Mini, Nook HD, Nexus 7. It’s also worth nothing that Nook HD has WAY more retail distribution than any other Android Tablet. It’s also sold in WalMart and Target while Kindle Fire HD is not.

B&N has put its own ebook and movie revenues streams in danger. However, it has ensured good sales for Nook HD and HD+. At least until a markedly better Android Tablet comes along. It has also put Amazon’s Kindle Fire HD in a lot of trouble.

Will Amazon add Google Play Store to Kindle Fire?

Well, it doesn’t really have an option. It either adds Google Play Store to Kindle Fire or it loses a significant amount of market share.

  1. If Amazon doesn’t add Google Play Store then it’ll slowly and steadily lose market share. This might not seem like a big deal, at first. However, over time, this would mean less developers want to make apps for Kindle Fire (they would all flock to iPad and Windows and Android).
  2. We now have iPad which has the most and the best apps, Android which has the 2nd most apps (though not really very good ones), and Windows 8 which is adding apps at a ridiculously high pace (10K per month). After all of those, we have Kindle Fire which has a low number of apps and the quality isn’t as good as iPad. That means Kindle Fire becomes, in effect, the Tablet with the WORST choice of Apps. It doesn’t make up things in Quality either – because most of the apps are apps ported over from Android.
  3. Amazon will have to open up Kindle Fire HD to the Google Play Store. Sooner or later.

It can’t continue without Google Play Store unless it’s willing to lose market share. It could avoid Google Play Store while it had the best ecosystem out of the two non-iPad Tablets that were very good. But now B&N has that distinction.

Amazon will be very, very, very reluctant to give up its ecosystem and customers to Google. That means it’ll wait for one more Holiday Season. Which means it will suffer some market share losses. Depending on how aggressive Google is with Nexus 7 pricing, and depending on how aggressive B&N is with Nook HD pricing, Kindle Fire HD might lose a lot of market share.

What will Amazon do?

It’s hard to say. There are 4 major paths forward -

  1. Drop the prices of Kindle Fire HD and Kindle Fire HD 8.9″.
  2. Ignore lost customers and focus on customers loyal to Amazon.
  3. Add Google Play Store.
  4. Ramp up the rate at which Apps are added to its store.

The 2nd and 4th are very painful to do. That leaves just the 1st and 3rd.

Note: The 2nd would not be painful for Apple. For a company like Amazon that wants and needs large numbers of customers, it is very painful to lose potential ’socks & sink buying’ customers.

My prediction: Amazon first tries a price drop and a ramp-up in the number of apps added. After 6-9 months it realizes the futility of it and adds Google Play Store. Which would mean that Google’s Android OS gets a really good shot at becoming the dominant Tablet OS and staying that way for a long time.

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