Who is J. A. Konrath? Why should a Kindle owner/normal reader care?

(by switch11) J. A. Konrath is an indie pioneer and has played a much bigger part than people realize in the rise of indie authors -

1. To Put it Bluntly: We readers wouldn’t be getting good books from good indie authors in the $1 to $5 range if not for the contributions of authors like J. A. Konrath.
2. Firstly, by sharing his numbers he’s delivered a huge dose of confidence to other indie authors – It’s changed their reality and their sense of what’s possible. J.A. Konrath earned over $500,000 from ebooks in 2011. Those numbers give other authors the confidence to strike out on their own.
3. Just to stress that again: There’s nothing that gives authors more incentive to go straight to readers (and offer more value for money to readers) than finding out that J. A. Konrath is earning hundreds of thousands of dollars a year by going straight to readers.
4. Secondly, he’s stuck with ebooks. J. A. Konrath and John Locke are two authors (amongst several) who’ve refused to sign ebook deals with Publishers and have thus saved us readers from the insult of having to pay $8 per ebook (we are saved from having to subsidize the inefficient print book business).
5. Thirdly, he’s shared what works for him. The J. A. Konrath Guide to Publishing blog is full of great advice and also has great examples of indie authors who are doing great by going straight to readers. This is the rarest thing: Someone successful who’s sharing that wisdom for free.
6. I’ve been blogging about Kindle and ebooks and indie authors since December 2007 and there’s no doubt in my mind that J. A. Konrath has done more for indie authors than any other author. In the midst of a flurry of authors who thought the end goal was to strike a deal with Publishers, he is one of the few indie authors (alongside others like John Locke) who realized that offering readers the best value for money is the right thing to do (and also the smartest).
7. Fourthly, J. A. Konrath saw the trends and acted on them before almost everyone else. There’s a pretty good chance that following his blog and his thoughts will benefit authors and readers as we continue to see cataclysmic changes in books and publishing.

J. A. Konrath has played a key role in the rise of authors and readers and here’s an interview with him (Meaghan did the interview).

Interview with J. A. Konrath Part 1: The Questions He Wishes He Would be Asked

[This and rest of the interview is by Meaghan] We started off the interview with Joe by asking him the questions he longed to be asked by interviewers. His response was intriguing:

1) Why do you blog about the publishing industry?

Joe: I blog because it sometimes encourages intelligent discussions, which help me hone my goals and learn more about how the industry works. In order to attract visitors to my blog, I share things I’ve done (things that have worked and things that haven’t), including sales figures. Some people like what I have to say. Some don’t. I get a lot of thank yous, and a lot of criticism.

2) Does it bother you when people criticize you?

Joe: No. I often get misquoted, or my words are taken out of context. Lots of people form opinions without bothering to read my blog. That’s silly. But it doesn’t bother me, either. Everyone has an opinion, though the uniformed ones are difficult to defend.

3) Will you ever stop blogging?

Joe: I once made an open offer to the publishing industry. I’d never blog again if they paid me a million dollars. The offer still stands. And based on the number of comments and emails I get, a million is a bargain. The Big 6 have lost a lot of business because of my blog.

Interview with J. A. Konrath Part 2 – Our Questions for Mr. Konrath

These are the topics and questions we most wanted to hear Mr. Konrath’s thoughts on.

4) What influenced you to begin writing?

Joe: I love telling stories, which grew from a love of reading stories.

5) In your blog post entitled “Interview with my cover artist Carl Graves” you discuss the importance of cover art. How much of a difference do you feel that your covers make in your sales?

Joe: I’ve seen sales improve by 100% and more just by getting better covers. Some I’ve my covers I’ve changed as many as four times.

6) In Selena Kitt’s guest post on your blog, she discusses the pricing of eBooks. Where do you feel that the ideal price for both authors and readers lies?

Joe: Under six bucks. Ebooks should cost less than paper. They are intangible, can’t be resold, and cost pennies to copy and distribute. The value of a book is how much money it earns the author, not its list price.

7) What would you say are the main factors that have led to your success? Which of these can be used/learnt by any writer?

Joe. This is a business. Act like a professional. Write a lot. Keep at it until you get lucky.

8) Do you feel that authors can make a decent living from selling $1-3 eBooks? How many authors do you think would be able to make a full living from books if ebooks (and in particular low-priced ebooks) became the norm?

Joe: Every author has their own goals to follow, their own road to walk. Some will make a living. Some won’t. It’s like any other career. Hard work and talent are helpful, but luck is needed to succeed.

9) What role do you believe that publishers, both small and large, have left to play in the world of books?

Joe: If I worked for a publisher right now, I’d be posting my resume on Monster.com.

10) You saw/predicted what was happening in the eBook world probably before anyone else. What led you to envision this future world of ebooks? Why were you willing to take such risks and go all-out with what you thought would happen/what you saw as the future?

Joe: I was just as surprised as anyone. I was lucky that I had a lot of novels that were rejected, and I self-published them as ebooks for Kindle to see what would happen. What happened was I started to make a lot of money.

11) What role do you feel Kindle owners have to play? Do you think they value authors’ work? how much power/say do you think they have in what happens?

Joe: Readers are all that matters.

12) Given your insights into book publishing and self-publishing, and given that most people would keep that knowledge for themselves and use it as a strategic advantage, why do you share them so freely? Are you not, in a way, creating more competition for yourself?

Joe: There is no competition. I price my novels at under $3.99. At that price, a reader can buy me and Blake Crouch, and Scott Nicholson, and Lee Goldberg, and a few others, and it’ll still cost less than a hardcover of Stephen King’s.

13) How do you feel about being cast in the role of the doomsayer of print books?

Joe: I’ve done dozens of posts telling writers, publishers, and bookstores how they could potentially thrive in an ebook-centric world. That’s proactive optimism, not reactive pessimism. Some listen. Some don’t. But it is none of my business what people do or don’t do.

14) You recently interrupted a hiatus from your blog to post “Book Country Fail” Do you feel that most authors, especially newbies, are informed enough about the Big Six muscling their way into self-publishing?

Joe: You can never be too informed, and good messages are worth repeating.

15) Now that events like book signings are becoming rarer, and things like blogs and social networking are becoming stronger, do you feel that the connection between authors and readers is stronger or weaker?

Joe: I answer dozens of fanmails a week. I think the connection is stronger than ever.

16) How much does having a relationship with other authors matter to you and how much of a difference would it make for new authors?

Joe: Writers don’t have water-cooler conversation. Our professions are solitary. It’s great to compare notes and trade tips. Tough to excel in a vacuum.

17) You work with other authors often. Do you find the collaborative process to be inspirational? When did you begin doing this type of writing?

Joe: Collaborating is terrific fun. Plus it expands your virtual shelf space with just half the work. I have many writer friends, so collaboration was inevitable.

Free Kindle Books from J.A. Konrath for Feb 1st and 2nd

These are Free only on February 1st and February 2nd, 2012.

• ***Shot of Tequila by J.A. Konrath. Price: Free. Genre: Mystery, Hard-Boiled, Police Procedurals. Rated 4.5 stars on 36 reviews. 270 pages.
• *Jack Daniels Stories by J.A. Konrath. Price: Free. Genre: Mystery, Police Procedurals. Rated 4.5 stars on 10 reviews. 316 pages.
• Horror Stories by J. A. Konrath. Price: $0. Genre: Horror. Rated 4 stars on 28 reviews. 296 pages.
• Suckers by Jack Kilborn, J.A. Konrath, and Jeff Strand. Price: Free. Genre: Thriller, Comedy. Rated 4.5 stars on 27 reviews. 246 pages.
• BIRDS OF PREY – A Psycho Thriller by Blake Crouch, J.A. Konrath, and Jack Kilborn. Price: Free. Genre: Thriller. Rated 4.5 stars on 11 reviews. 147 pages.
• *Ultimate Thriller Box Set by Konrath, Crouch, Black, Goldberg, Nicholson. Price: $0. Genre: Thrillers. Free until February 3rd.
• SERIAL KILLERS UNCUT – The Complete Psycho Thriller (The Complete Epic) by Blake Crouch, Jack Kilborn, and J.A. Konrath. Price: Free. Genre: Thriller, Serial Killers. Rated 4.5 stars on 14 reviews. 432 pages.
• 65 Proof. Price: $0. Genre: Thriller Stories. 622 pages. Rated 4.5 stars on 10 reviews.
• **Be the Monkey by Konrath & Eisler. Price: $0. Genre: Self-Publishing. Rated 5 stars on 17 reviews. 100 pages.
• Crime Stories by Konrath and Kilborn. Price: $0. Genre: Crime Stories.
• Planter’s Punch. Price: $0. Genre: Novella, Women Sleuths, Police Procedurals.
• **The Newbies Guide to Publishing (Everything a Writer Needs to Know). Price: $0. Genre: Writing Advice, Self-Publishing. Rated 4.5 stars on 27 reviews. 1088 pages.
• Truck Stop. Price: $0. Genre: Novella, Psycho Thriller. Rated 4 stars on 40 reviews. 76 pages.

Thank you for reading the interview. Please leave questions if you have any and we’ll forward them on to Mr. Konrath.

These publishers tend to be staffed well-enough to provide excellent quality, while low production costs keep the eBooks inexpensive. Because the cost is so low, there are numerous indie eBooks and publishers out there.

This multitude paired with the token elitism can make the indie world seem intimidating. Fortunately, with the proper method of exploration, you can expose yourself to a whole new literary world without all the hassle.

There are many things to look for when seeking out an independent publisher. Every website should have an “About Us” section, complete with staff biographies. If the staff seems unqualified, chances are that they are purely interested in profit. These are the indie publishers that are best avoided because they tend to not have the quality that others do.

Generally, the best indie publishers have a specific focus regarding genre or style. This specificity requires each piece to be unique and identifiable. The work from these publishers is usually of high quality with some fascinating originality.

Small publishers tend to follow different rules, with a much broader array of genres and authors. Finding the ideal small publisher may take more steps because there are so many more of them, but the result is worth the wait.

The best place to start looking for literature is on the publishers’ websites. There you can peruse multiple links, catalogues, and more. There are thousands of these publishers online and a simple Google search can turn up many of them. A list of some of the best small and independent publishers for various genres is below:

Romance – These publishers release eBooks that tug at heart-strings and explore the meaning and purpose of love:

Amber Quill – “From offering tales of gripping suspense and paranormal romance, hair-raising horror and spellbinding science fiction, to enchanting fantasies and sweeping historical sagas, Amber Quill Press, LLC, is certain to have something to satisfy your needs!”

Black Lyon Publishing – “At Black Lyon, we selectively publish novels by some of the most talented multi-published and new authors around.”

Samhain Publishing – A small publisher with a penchant for releasing popular and heart-wrenching romance eBooks.
 

Erotica – These publishers focus on carnal desires and unbridled passion in their eBooks:

Ellora’s Cave - “The world’s first & foremost publisher of erotic romance for women, as featured in Forbes, the Washington Post, Publisher’s Weekly & the Montel Show.”

MLR Press - The MLR stands for Man Love Romance, which is the perfect title for this gay-oriented erotic press.

Breathless Press – This erotic publisher is full of variety, making it a great choice for an introduction to erotic literature.

Freya’s Bower – The eBooks released by this erotic publisher are available in multiple sub-genres. It is a publisher who truly understands the difference between erotica and pornography.

Experimental/Undefinable – The eBooks released by these publishers span the imagination, revealing and revelling in rare thoughts:

Calderwood Books – “We all love books and reading, and we’re looking forward to offering what is ‘weird and wonderful,’ as Joy puts it, because good readers deserve good books.”

Conscious Kernels – This spiritually oriented eBook publisher’s authors explore the mind deeply and uniquely.

Akashic Books - “Akashic Books is a Brooklyn-based independent company dedicated to publishing urban literary fiction and political nonfiction by authors who are either ignored by the mainstream, or who have no interest in working within the ever-consolidating ranks of the major corporate publishers.”

Children’s and Young Adult – Fantastical eBooks for the young and the young-at-heart are available from these publishers:

Mightbook - “MightyBook helps kids discover the joy of reading with hundreds of animated, read-aloud story books and songs that are as entertaining as they are educational.”

Early Bird Books – “Early Bird Books, an innovative and independent publishing company specialised in illustrated trilingual “books of words” mainly for children aged between 3 and 8.”

MuseItUp Publishing – This publisher has eBooks available in all genres, with a special focus on books for the young. Those eBooks are inspirational, educational, and entertaining.

Science Fiction and Fantasy – eBooks that explore the depths of imagination and the possibility of other worlds are released by these publishers:

Baen Books – A small Sci-Fi publisher with a huge catalogue of eBooks readily available for download. This publisher has great reads for all ages.

Speculation Press – This Science Fiction and Fantasy publisher’s eBooks explore the depths of the genres, incorporating romance and other themes into their work.

Mundania Press - “[T]he home of uncommonly good books for the discerning reader. Mundania Press is a publisher of select fiction novels and short stories.”

Mystery and Thriller – These publishers have eBooks that will terrify and intrigue the most hardened readers:

Pendulum Press – “Pendulum Press proudly offers titles by some of your favorite authors and by talented new writers destined for success. All are selected to please the discriminating mystery reader.”

Apex Book Company – While they also specialize in Sci-Fi and Fantasy, it is the Horror eBooks that Apex releases that put them in this category. Terror and excitement will be inspired by what the pages hold.

Technical – The eBooks available from these publishers will help the reader to learn and understand various specialty techniques:

O’Reilly Media – This knowledge-ridden publisher has eBooks available in nearly every technical category, especially regarding computer programming.

Pragmatic Programmers – This publisher provides any and all information needed by new and old programmers alike.

A.K. Peters Ltd. – From maths to computers, this publisher can suit the needs of any tech-reader.

Christian – These publishers release eBooks that propose and expand upon the existence and purpose of God:

Kregel Publishing – eBooks from this publisher span genres and ages, while keeping a Christian theme throughout.

Purity Publishers – “[W]e provide the Christian writers of today, the ability to have their Christian stories and even their Christian poetry, made available to the public at absolutely NO COST to the writer or the reader by way of Christians eBooks.”

Speculative Fiction - These eBook publishers focus on the future of our world and the potential effects of our destructive tendencies:

Dark Star Books – This publisher explores the genres, with a large focus on speculative fiction.

Lillibridge Press - “We are primarily an eBook publishing company specializing in speculative genre fiction for the discerning reader. Whether you have an hour for a short story, or several for a novelette, novella, or novel, Lillibridge Press is your immediate source for high-quality genre literature.”

Per Aspera Press – This publisher, who so adamantly works with new authors, provides high quality literature with a SF theme.

Poetry – Verse and rhyme and so on can be found in the eBooks that these publishers release:

Boson Books – With multiple genres available, poetry isn’t the only thing that Boson does right.

2River – Experimental and inspirational poetry are available from this prolific publisher.

Able Muse Press - This publisher is open to all writers, publishing new and extablished poets who can truly weave their words.

Mixed Genre – These publishers span the genres, releasing eBooks of every conceivable type:

Greyhart Press – This multi-genre publisher has a strong literary feel, publishing only the highest quality work.

Atlantic Bridge – A small and independent publisher that focuses on quality and content.

Double Dragon eBooks – This publisher has a huge variety of eBooks that focus mainly on the bizarre and unexpected.

The above are just a few of the thousands of great indie and small eBook publishers and genres out there. You will always find more, until you stop looking.

Another great method for finding publishers is exploring indie magazines and blogs. From novel excerpts to short stories and poetry to reviews, these resources are the mecca for the literary community. They are most often full of great content and insight.

Blogs & Magazines:

3:AM – 3:AM is the anti-hero of literary magazines. They are chock-full of observations, interviews, recommendations, and so on.

The Barcelona Review – This Spanish magazine focuses on political literature.

Big Bridge – As one of the oldest online literary magazines, Big Bridge is seasoned in presenting optimal content for readers.

McSweeny’s – A stylish quarterly magazine available online or in print.

Electronic Book Review – This open magazine covers all aspects of art with fascinating perspectives.

anderbo.com – An online magazine that focuses mainly on writing and photography.

Books on the Radio – This magazine is also a radio show that examines literature and its various forms.

While piracy has become a small issue in the eBook world, independent and small publishers are barely effected. The indie literature community, like the indie music community, offers its products for free on occasion, deterring people from illegally downloading and encouraging them to get their eBooks directly from the publishers.

This sense of community is another of the many fantastic aspects of literature. There are several resources within that community that are very helpful when searching for indie eBooks.

Community Resources:

Mobile Read – This forum is focused around eBook reading and readers, with specific areas for indie eBook discussion

Smash Words – This is a great place for readers and writers to connect over the content and quality of literature.

AmazonEncore – Amazon’s answer to indie publishing has exposed the world to many new writers.

The real difference between “normal” and independent literature is the variety of the content. Genres like erotica and experimental literature are very popular within the community because the publishers have less of a filter than the Big Six. There is still enough of a filter that eBooks focusing around fanfiction, poor grammar, and so forth are not as prominent are they are among self-publishing.

The welcoming nature that these publishers have tends to attract new writers and the publishers are happy to have them. New writers who generate intriguing and new content are a force to be reckoned with in the literary world.

New Writers:

Randy O’Brien – This journalist/writer has roots in Tennessee and is the author of Judge Fogg.

John Anderson - This writer truly understands the concept of fantasy, as he shows in his novel, The Last Ride of the Reverse Cowgirls.

Milena Agus - Agus shows her immense insight into the human condition in her first book, From the Land of the Moon.

Kathryn Eastburn - Eastburn explores the depths of the murder-mystery genre in Simon Says.

Tammie Flowers - Tammie takes a playful but emotional approach to fantasy romance with Castlegates’ Legacy.

There are a huge amount of indie eBooks available for purchase or download across the internet. With the proper tools and thoughts behind your search, you can find some real gems. The samples provided are merely a starting point, so please don’t stop there. Take a look - you are probably going to love what you find.

For Context, here is a snippet from Found Press’ About Us page:

Found Press is a place where size really doesn’t matter.

Some of the world’s best writing has been dubbed “short”; yet too often, short fiction and literary non-fiction are underrepresented in bookstores and are difficult to find … So how do we give these stories the independence they deserve?

The answer: create a new publishing model—a new way of distributing short stories. We knew it would be ambitious, but we felt we had to give it a shot.

Imagine an online literary journal that makes each work within it available for individual purchase.

Bryan Ibeas and Jacqueline Lee Olynyk head the Toronto-based eBook publisher, Found Press. They, along with hundreds of small publishers like them, have been working to revolutionize the world of reading. From story length to genre and authors to editors, there is nothing about Found Press that isn’t both unique and intriguing.

The selection process at Found Press is an in-depth and un-biased affair that forces both Bryan and Jacqueline to deeply consider each piece. They peruse the submissions, giving extra attention to pieces with that special something, and then they discuss the quality of the work.

With such adventurous influences as Neil Gaiman and Ursula K. Leguin, the range of stories that they release is compelling. Bryan provided me with a great understanding of what it is that Found Press is looking for.

“I like being surprised – no, I like being gut-punched by stories. This can be accomplished with flat-out beautiful writing, resonant characters, a strong emotional hook, a well-defined arc – I like being taken places – and a unique take on this world or any other.”

Writers would do well to consider that idea every time that they sit down to write. Bryan also pointed out an issue that is too commonly looked over: writers are writing to get published, not to be writers. He indicated that while schmoozing will always help to improve your standing, it will do little for your competency.

For those who wish to be “worth a damn” as a writer, “[l]ive. Write. Read. Rinse and repeat, until what you write is so good that only a supreme idiot can say no to your work.” Only once you have a process and a passion like this will you find your work both loved and published.

Because Bryan works in the eBook publishing field, his feelings about eReaders are clear. The existence of hundreds of different technologies allows users to pick and choose whichever device suits their needs. These options allow freedom, not restrictions. While it is “extremely difficult to predict how e-reading technology will affect society as a whole,” their current effects seem to be quite beneficial.

From short story collections to individual releases, Found Press publishes stories for eReaders in unique and versatile ways. The initial reasoning behind this process may have been “financial and logistical,” but it stays this way for creativity.

“We don’t need to worry about page counts, or “fit”. We can sell each story on its own merits, or Voltron them together in an unholy collection of literary goodness. We can repurpose them a thousand different ways, to suit a thousand different tastes. That part is genuinely exciting – the ability to exhaust every possible option to get these stories out into the world.”

The independent book publishing industry is fast moving forward, with Found Press one of a crop of exciting new Publishing companies at the helm. Passion and vision drive these readers to bring great writing to others like them. Without people like Bryan and Jacqueline at Found Press, we readers might find ourselves adrift in a world without curation.

Please do get in touch if you’re an independent Publisher or a new Publisher. Would love to get your thoughts on the future of publishing and what strategies are likely to work and what challenges and opportunities you deal with.

That leaves us readers and our books.

We are migrating from books to ebooks and from a curated gatekeeper model to a mix of curation and long tail and ‘anyone can publish’.

What impact does it have on us?

Two Links to Set/Get some Context

Courtesy TeleRead we get two very interesting articles -

1. Nicholas Carr warns schools about the potential switch to eBooks. Interestingly, this time he uses solid arguments to back up his gift for stringing words together poetically.
2. At Quill and Quire, scientists in Toronto find that reading books changes people – that people create a simulation in their minds as they read and it has a measurable impact on personality (at least they claim it’s measurable). It might seem strange to do a study on something that seems pretty obvious to anyone who has ever read a good book. However, it never hurts to get proof that reading a book can have quite an impact on the reader.

Combine the two and we get an interesting thought - If Books really do change people, and if Nicholas Carr is right and ebooks aren’t as impactful as physical books, then are eBooks going to herald the dawn of a world where books no longer have as much impact?

eBooks come with advantages and disadvantages

If we think about the role books play and the impact they have on us, then it’s worth noting that eBooks are neither much worse nor much better than physical books.

eBooks just aren’t as good as Physical Books (in some respects)

Here are a few negatives (most of which Nicholas Carr has discussed at length, and in much prettier language, in his article) -

1. With an eReader or a Reading Tablet there is always the temptation to check the news or play a game or surf the web or send an email.
2. There is some difference between turning the pages of a book and getting the tactile sensation and the smell and the familiarity – versus using an eReader and the specific and very different experience it presents. Purely on the basis of the fact that we probably are in the habit of concentrating more (and going into a different state of mind) when reading a physical book, it’s quite possible that eReaders won’t present as pure a reading focus until we get used to them (which will be different for different readers).
3. Absolutely anyone can publish an ebook. That means you get a lot of noise and a lot of people with some truly strange books and ideas influencing you.
4. The quality control (both in terms of content and in terms of formatting and editing) is not as high.
5. You can’t interact with the book in the form of taking notes like you could with a physical book. A little ’1′ mark for a note hardly replaces the impact of something scribbled in the margins.
6. It’s different - just the act of switching to a new way of getting and reading books takes some getting used to. Some people will never try or will quite before they become comfortable with this new way.
7. The inability to easily skim and write in margins means ebooks are not suited for textbooks. Add on the lack of color in the current generation of eReaders and we really don’t have any ‘textbook readers’ at all. Amazon didn’t help matters by pushing the College Student Pilot Program using a Kindle that had no touch, no color, and just wasn’t adequate as a text-book reader.
8. The user interface still needs work – it makes some things (such as highlighting) annoyingly slow.
9. eBooks are accused of not providing as many visual cues i.e. structure, chapters, where in the book you are. It doesn’t help that everyone has their own interpretation of page numbers and whether or not to show them.

That’s a long list and it isn’t even complete. Nicholas Carr seems like a genius and his advice seems golden – We really shouldn’t rush to replace old tools with new ones before thinking things through.

However, what about the things that ebooks do better?

eBooks do a better job than Physical Books (on some fronts)

Here’s the part that Nicholas Carr’s editor cut out from his article.

1. eBooks are making reading a lot more affordable – which means more people can read, and people can read more. Black Echo for $1 and Stephen King Novellas for $3 just wouldn’t be possible with physical books. Nor would indie author books at $1 and book deals at $1 and $2 (at least not to the same extent). It will, almost certainly, lead to more people reading, and people reading more. Perhaps most importantly, it makes books competitive with lots of other ways of passing the time.
2. eBooks are making reading a lot more accessible. People who couldn’t read can read now –  Larger text and Text to Speech is opening up reading to a lot more people. Additionally, People can read now in places and at times when they couldn’t read earlier. You can read on your phone, on your PC, or on your eReader. As Jerry Lee Lewis would put it - Whole lotta reading going on.
3. With the Democratization of Publishing we get a lot more ideas and diversity. While there is a lot of noise, there is also a lot more variety. We have replaced the filter of ‘high quality and what Publishers think people should read and what Publishers think will make money’ with ‘zero quality control and what any person in the world wants to send out and varying consideration of profits’. The lack of quality control is bad but the other two things are good – everyone gets a shot and lots of people who don’t care about money get a shot.
4. Convenience – Books in 60 seconds and stores that are open 24/7. This also increases the amount of reading as the friction is reduced significantly. Books needed ebooks to be able to compete with instant on TV and Internet and Video Games.
5. There is more available in your genre of choice. Let’s say that you have an unhealthy obsession with Post-Apocalyptic novels – Well, you can now choose from Publishers and Small Publishers and Indie Authors and your neighbourhood Baker. There’s less quality control but a lot more choice – plus you are free of the threat of everyone switching over to publishing Twilight clones for 16-year-old girls.
6. eBooks are giving books a longer life. Whether we like to admit it or not, the truth is that $10 books sold in physical stores and published according to their profit potential were losing out to things like TV and YouTube. Now books are competitive again.

While rushing out to replace our old, trusted tools would be stupid, it would be equally stupid to keep using them if everything around us is changing and they just aren’t as effective.

The world is changing and books have to change too – If books don’t evolve they face the very real danger of dying out or becoming far less important.

Of course, there are still a lot of unanswered questions.

Things Left Unanswered

Well, here are a few -

1. How do eBooks affect us? Do they affect us as much as physical books or more?
2. What happens when Network effects start kicking in? What happens when unknown authors become bestsellers in the space of a few days?
3. Will people read more now that ebooks are so accessible and cheap or will they read the same amount and just spend less on books?
4. Will the quality control of books be gone forever? It’s hard to imagine Publishers being able to afford to run stringent quality control given the likely drop in ebook prices.
5. Will the lack of sharing and resale have some permanent effect?
6. Will we ever get an eReader that can handle textbooks? Perhaps it’s the students that are the problem – Do we really think we could ever make a device that would satisfy college students?
7. If books become very accessible due to the rise of ebooks will people become too smart? Do we really want people who are capable of making the cognitive leap that they shouldn’t be funding Wall Street bonuses with their retirement savings?
8. Will people get too influenced by each other? Will the gatekeeping of Publishers get reduced by the Court of Peer Pressure and Public Opinion?
9. What happens in we end up with 2 major players in Books and things get even more controlled than when there were Publishers?

These are exciting times for anyone in Publishing. They are critical times for anyone who reads – a lot is going right and a lot could go wrong. It’s easy for Publishers to focus on the negatives and for us to focus on the positives. There are things happening that can’t be undone – not all are good, not all are bad, but most are irrevocable.

In a way, no one knows what will happen. Everyone is waiting for an opportunity to seize an advantage and take over the profits in books and everyone is uncertain of the direction in which things will move. This might be the best of times for books. This might be the worst of times for books. It might even be both - In fact, it probably is both.

• Zendegi by Greg Egan. Price: $0. Genre: Fantasy, Science Fiction, Artificial Intelligences that are Almost Human. Rated 3.5 stars on 8 reviews. 278 pages.

Next, a good deal -

1. Update: No longer at $1. A Midnight Clear by William Wharton. Price: $9. Genre: Historical Fiction, The Futility and Tragedy of War, The Second World War. Rated 4.5 stars on 29 reviews.
2. Try this instead – Dona Luz by Juan Valera and Kenneth Evan Barger. Price: $1. Genre: Translated Fiction, Tragic Love Story, 19th century Madrid. 199 pages. Rated 4 stars on 5 reviews. Another Juan Valera novel is for $1.

Finally, some thoughts on this rather interesting bit of news – Ellora’s Cave testing its own eReader.

Why Going Direct to Customers is a Good Strategy

If your product is content its a great idea to not depend on anyone else as the channel to your customers.

Consider a few things -

1. The way Google has gradually bled content companies dry. It started off as a search engine, and then became the channel to customers, and gradually started taking over everything. All the companies that bought into the ‘Do No Evil’ nonsense are now marginalized. Their main product (whether it is news or content) is now close to worthless. A random blog that will steal content and run Google Ads alongside it is valued just as highly (and sometimes higher) than a newspaper that flies people to the scene of an event or an in-depth site that does actual analysis.
2. The way Apple is making content companies dance to its strange and convoluted tune. A content company is now expected to give 30% of sales revenue to Apple. When you consider that profit margins for 99% of companies are less than 30% you have to wonder exactly what Apple has in mind – Does it want to levy a charge or does it just want to drive all content companies out of its ecosystem?
3. The fact that if a company owns the device and the channel and the store – then it’s ten times as powerful as a book store chain. Device owners are becoming monsters - a mix of distributor and retailer and customer relationship owner and device. It’s an incredibly powerful hold over customers and authors/publishers. The revolution in Publishing may very well lead to all the power in Publishing getting focused in the hands of a few incredibly powerful companies.

We are talking about a situation where Authors and Publishers might be left completely powerless. Books could be turned into loss leaders. A divide and conquer policy could make all books seem worth very little. All control would be with the device makers.

What can an author/publisher do?

The only solution is exactly what Ellora’s Cave is doing. A big tip of the hat to Ellora’s Cave for showing us all the way.

Consider this snippet -

we do still have a lot of loyal customers who buy almost solely from our website. We wanted to provide them with a non-proprietary reader that they could use for all their ebooks, but that would also make it easy to continue to buy directly from us, where they still get the best price and can take advantage of all of our sales and purchase incentives.

The message there is that Ellora’s Cave had to choose between two options -

1. Be one out of many faceless, nameless Publishers in the various ebook stores. Watch on as ‘favorite’ publishers like Samhain get to offer free books and get promoted heavily. Watch on as Ellora’s Cave customers become Company A or Company B customers.
2. Build out your own device and provide it to your customers. Thanks to the snail’s pace of evolution of eReader technology (and thanks to companies in China creating customizable eReaders) any company can create a decent eReader and brand it and sell it direct to customers.

Unlike the lazy and stupid and non-forward thinking Big 6, Ellora’s Cave decided that a little pain upfront is much better than being marginalized down the line.

By now it should be clear to authors and publishers that we are headed towards a Sea of Uniformity – where Publishers are marginalized and Authors are commoditized and the only differentiators between books are fickle things like reviews and prices and sales ranks. A Sea of Uniformity where only the device maker can actually do promotions, where the Bestseller Lists become a self-fulfilling prophecy, and where even free books have to fight to get attention.

If you have a direct channel to customers – then, not only can you survive, you can do better than before. No more distributors and book stores taking a cut. No more depending on the physical world and all its delays.

If you buy into all the ‘Do No Evil’ Hallmark goodness, then you probably deserve to be strung out and slow roasted. And you will – just look at what good little Google did and is doing to all companies (taking reviews from Yelp and using them to replace Yelp with Google Places is another example).

Every single Publisher should be doing this – by itself or with other Publishers. Every single ebook seller should be doing this. The simple truth is that if a company like Google can use just a search engine to destroy entire industries (content, news) and suck off all the profit, then a device maker (which has device and search and operating system and channel and store) can give new meaning to things like ‘divide and conquer’ and ‘abuse of power’.

There will be a massacre and the only companies with any hope will be ones like Ellora’s Cave. In Jack Welch’s words (with embellishments) - Control Your Destiny (and release your own eReader), or Someone Else Will.

Just look at the contrast between Borders and Barnes and Noble.

For those who don’t like a little mystery – J. K. Rowling does something interesting.

J. K. Rowling owns arguably the most desired ebook rights on the planet – her deciding to go solo is a cataclysm for both Publishers and Platforms. We’re talking about billions of dollars lost to them.

If that seems excessive – Consider the number of Kindles Amazon could have sold if it had gotten exclusive rights. Add on Amazon’s cut from ebook sales to new and existing Kindle owners. Then add on Harry Potter ebook sales that would be strong year after year after year.

It’s a big loss for Publishers and eReader makers to not strike a deal with J. K. Rowling. From the way she’s gone about things it seems she always intended to go solo.

Reasons this is smart for J. K. Rowling

1. If she pulls it off, she will make a ridiculous amount of money. Well, to be precise, she will make an even more ridiculous amount of money than the ridiculous amount of money she would have made if she would have gone with Amazon or a Big 6 Publisher.
2. She has complete artistic control.
3. She gets to interface with fans directly. That direct communication will be crucial if she intends to keep Harry Potter alive as a franchise for a long time.
4. She earns a lot of goodwill with the whole ‘there is no DRM, you can read it on any device’ message. It’s human nature to disregard the commercial benefit to her and consider only the ‘openness and goodness’ of it. More on human nature later.
5. She can sell to people across all devices.
6. She can completely bypass people like Steve Jobs who would have wanted a 30% tax on every copy of Harry Potter read on any iDevice.
7. She can build up an entire industry/site/company around this with a recurring revenue stream. This is exactly what Pottermore is about. It’s still an unknown whether her book success also grants her the magical ability to create and run a huge company around the Harry Potter ebooks. My gut feeling is that she would have been better off sticking to her core competency.
8. She dictates terms – For example, Sony is a partner and might sell Harry Potter branded eReaders. Presumably, Sony would pay her a commission for every Harry Potter edition eReader sold.

The upside is huge and it’s a smart, smart move.

Unfortunately, all the comparisons to Radiohead’s foray into selling music direct to customers might be more appropriate than J. K. Rowling realizes.

Reasons going without DRM and without Platforms and Publishers is Stupid

The 75% probability is that J. K. Rowling will fail in her attempt to create a new business empire that she controls totally. She’ll still make a lot of money but significantly less than if she signed up with a Publisher or Platform on intelligent and reasonable terms.

A few simple reasons -

1. You can’t discount human nature. Radiohead did its grand experiment of going direct to customers and then shut down the experiment after 3 months. There were claims that as many as 62% of people paid nothing for the music. We’ll soon find out if readers feel entitled to free Harry Potter books or not. Keep in mind that almost everyone who has bought the physical books can easily jump from ‘Let’s spend $10 per Harry Potter ebook’ to ‘I’ve already paid and I’m entitled to a free download’.
2. If you leave closed ecosystems, everything changes. Ideal would be to work only in the closed ecosystems of Kindle Store, Apple’s iTunes, and B&N’s Nook Store. Where the customers have good intent and are willing to pay for quality. In bad ecosystems even good customers do bad things.
3. The Platforms and Publishers do perform an important function. There is an incredible amount of marketing and product placement and promotion that goes hand in hand with big releases and by offering Platforms and Publishers nothing J. K. Rowling is saying – Don’t need you any more. She’s a bit crazy if she thinks she can replace/duplicate the amount of exposure Platforms and Publishers provide.
4. The DRM being replaced with watermarks is the most ridiculous idea ever. Let’s stop using guns and use water pistols.
5. It’s driven by a desire to maximize profit. No amount of ‘there is no DRM’ and ‘we are creating a new experience’ can hide the fact that Rowling wants to go direct to customers to maximize profit. There will be some very interesting side-effects and one of those will be that readers get to dictate what they think the Harry Potter ebooks are worth. J. K. Rowling’s hard-core fans might pay her asking price but everyone else won’t. In fact, a surprisingly large number of people will just say – She’s already made billions, me not paying isn’t going to hurt her.

Basically, this could potentially be a massive train wreck of a release.

J. K. Rowling had to choose between (please note that this is assuming total sales over the next 5 years, not the first year of sales and not lifetime sales) -

1. A guaranteed billion or so in profits while her partners made a billion or two in profit themselves. 
2. The possibility of multiple billions in profit by going solo.

What’s easy to disregard with the latter option is the distinct possibility that instead of a profit of $2 billion in the ‘no middle man, no DRM’ scenario, the profit might end up being just a few hundred million.

Anyone who understands human nature would be very, very wary of assuming that J. K. Rowling has made the right choice. If she can keep beating the drum of ‘doing the right thing for customers’ and stick with no DRM, create the ‘magical and revolutionary’ interactive experience she’s promising, and sell the ebooks at a reasonable price point - then she has a chance. However, the 75% chance is that she learns the same painful lesson Radiohead did about the profit-eating capabilities of the Internet.

Sometimes success in one area bestows people with the belief that success in every other area is just as guaranteed and that things like the 10,000 year rule and core competency/domain expertise don’t apply. In a year or two we’ll know whether J. K. Rowling can pull off the near impossible.

Update: One last thing – It’s a bit sad to see J. K. Rowling forget the part bookstores and her Publisher and online retailers played in her success. This article at The Bookseller talks about physical bookshops being frustrated and they have a right to be. She obviously doesn’t owe anyone anything and has the rights and the power – but it’s nice to remember who your friends were and who helped you. She could have handed over 25% or so of profits and if anything it would have improved her chances of lasting success.

Here’s my Unofficial Guide to Kindle Hating.

Kindle Haters – There is still Hope

If you’re a Kindle hater, then please remember – Kindle hating is a journey, not a destination.

Please don’t lose hope just because tens of millions of Kindles and eReaders have been sold. The clouds of ignorance built up due to the slow demise of reading are still heavy and strong. While the winds of eReading threaten to blow them away, you still have a chance to help take down the revolution in reading.

Kindle hating is justified – The Kindle threatens the very ideology of more-than-one-thing-at-a-time-ness. A very sacred religion you can relate to strongly if you have ever driven a car while eating a Wendys burger and munching on their surprisingly good French Fries. Can you blame the devotees of multi-tasking after such an exhilirating experience - eating a Bacon Cheeseburger while trying not to get killed on the highway.

The more-than-one-thing-at-a-timers are justified in their hate of a device so pure that it only does one thing at a time.

The part that is really stunning is when Kindle Haters morph into Indie Author Haters.

Why the hate for indie authors?

A wise man (or perhaps he was just high) once said – Haters Gonna Hate. Dave Chappelle (before running away from a $30 million contract and his dedicated band of Chappelle Haters) did much ground breaking research on this.

The logical conclusion would be that there is no logic for some people’s hate. While Kindle haters stand behind the tenets of their multitasking religion, peopel hating on indie authors are just being tacky. Like the person who wants to split the bill according to how good each dish was and how much of it you actually finished.

Let’s consider a few examples.

Masterpieces in Hating on John Locke

John Locke is only the eighth author to join the Kindle Million Club (which sort of sounds better and worse than it really is).

Here’s a comment from TechCrunch. It’s motivation for all of us to help indie authors.

I wonder if the fact that all his “novels” are $0.99 helped him out any? Or the fact that most of them feature bare womens’ legs on the cover? Or the fact that each book is filled with ads for his other books? Or the fact that they’re knuckle-dragging male sex/crime fantasies written at a fourth-grade level?

Not to be all literary-elitist, but this guy’s not an independent author, he’s a marketer who happens to bang out a crappy book every couple months.

Really?

When a big company like Apple uses super emotional ads like the FaceTime Ads it’s considered good marketing and just an extension of their overall ability to make excellent stuff that you can touch and form an emotional connection with.

If an indie author uses sex appeal to catch the eye he’s considered to be low talent and all marketing.

Do you really have a problem with bare women’s legs? What man doesn’t love bare women’s legs?

Filled with Ads for his other books? You mean the way Google has a Google chrome ad on its homepage. And the way Microsoft Windows comes with Office Works.

Written at a fourth-grade level. Aaah … that’s just plain nasty. Consider the construction of these phrases by the Locke-hater in his comment -

womens’ legs … every couple months

He wins. It’s obvious he’s much more of an expert on fourth-grade level writing than we’ll ever be.

It’s sweet of him to worm in a weasel phrase before calling John Locke’s books crappy (he writes – Not to be all literary-elitist).

Sir, you need not worry about being *all literary-elitist* – In fact, you are not in any danger of being even part literary-elitist.

Masterpieces in Hating on Indie Publishing

The LA Times brings up the high cost of John Locke’s success -

… anywhere from $2 to $4 per sale of a $20 hardcover sold in a bookstore.

with ebooks … authors with major publishers stand to make a similar percentage — a $15 e-book brings them $1.50 to $3.

Drop the price of the e-book to $9.99 and a traditional author might make about $1 to $2.

Which is not much. But it’s still more than 35 cents.

$1 to $2 is more than 35 cents. What profound wisdom.

Einstein is worrying that his Theory of Relativity won’t measure up to LA Times’ Theory of Relative Profitability. They forget a tiny part of the equation though -

Readers also factor into the equation. By virtue of the little fact that they are the ones spending the money.

1. Authors make $1 to $2 after selling a $10 ebook to readers. That’s 10% to 20% plus readers are paying $10 per book.
2. John Locke and other indie authors make 35 cents after selling a $1 ebook to readers. That’s 35%. It also encourages a lot more reading and a lot more sales.
3. John Locke has sold over a million ebooks and has made $350,000. If he had focused on ‘profit per copy’ instead of ‘total profit’ he would probably be making a gigantic $2 per sale on sales of 20,000 a year. Which would add up to $40,000 and be so much more meaningful than $350,000 – Wait a minute. It wouldn’t.
4. John Locke is reaching a lot more readers and a lot more readers are getting value from his books. Isn’t that what reading is about? Readers reading books and benefiting from them and enjoying them.

Basically, you make more *total profit* and reach more readers. Meanwhile readers get more book value for their money. It’s a win-win on all sides.

Thanks to Roger Knights for another interesting indie author story – David Lender. Perhaps our non literary-elitist commenter will add a comment to this article about how it only sells because there are pictures of Wall Street on the cover.

The Amanda Hocking Question

It’s just a question so please don’t go overboard.

How is it that Amanda Hocking got beaten by John Locke in the sales rankings charts? Could it possibly have anything to do with the fact that she signed a Publisher deal and readers promptly rewarded her for that by turning their backs on her?

It’ll be very interesting to see how readers treat her new releases. Readers are all-powerful now and authors caught in the mindset that they need Publishers to become superstars and/or rich are going to be rewarded by the people – often in ways they don’t anticipate.

By the way, this is just an observation. You can compare her sales rankings from right before she signed up with a major publisher with her sales rankings now. Correlation is not always causation – But causation isn’t always correlation either.

I don’t even know what that last bit means but it sounds great .

Finally, a quick thought on ‘profitability’

It’s a tad depressing to see so much analysis on ‘profitability’ without any consideration of the fact that it is readers’ money.

Option 1: Talk solely about how much money you can make from $2.99 versus how much money you can make from $0.99. Focus only on *your* profitability and talk about things like the price elasticity of demand and other nonsense that makes you seem smarter than you really are. It’s just stuff that lets you pretend you have the ability to predict the future.

Option 2: Look at how much value for money readers are getting.

An indie author is selling a $5 book at $1 – Readers get $5 worth of value for $1. The Indie Author get 35 cents profit. The $1 price sells enough copies to make the indie author hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. The millions of people who buy the book each get 5 times the value they paid for.

Doesn’t that make more sense?

Isn’t thinking in win-win terms better than thinking of readers as stupid robotic ATMs?

1. Unsustainable for Publishers.
2. Unsustainable for all authors outside the Top 1% of authors.
3. Harmful to the quality of books and to readers’ reading experience.

First, a little context.

What is the Race to Zero?

It’s the assumption that, as markets free up and restrictions go down, book prices will go down drastically.

In a perfectly open market, when there is more supply than demand, prices go to zero.

In a perfectly open market, prices go to zero even when supply does not outstrip demand because of the lottery effect, i.e. the products at the top of the sales charts make a lot of money even if they are priced low (due to the extremely high volume of sales seen at the top of the charts). Every producer/creator/writer/developer assumes/hopes that hitting a top spot is a feasible and likely outcome for her product and prices her product accordingly.

In a market like the iPhone App Store or the Kindle Book Store (or, for that matter, even the Internet) there is a very big reward attached to being #1 or #2 (or even being in the Top 100). Products in these slots generate huge amounts of revenue even if they are priced quite low.

While there are very few such slots, the slots seem within reach to everyone. Every single author out of the millions of authors writing books see those 100 spots and thinks getting a spot is a possibility. Why not me?

It’s a valid question. What causes the problem is the sheer number of people asking the question.

Most product creators/producers start pricing their product as if it is guaranteed to hit the Top 10 - they will make up in volume what they are missing out on in terms of per-sale profit. The net result is that prices plummet – often to unsustainable levels.

The Kindle Store has partially avoided The Race to Zero

In the Kindle Store, you see a few factors that are propping up prices -

1. Publishers control most of the ‘proven’ authors. To add to that they are snapping up some of the indie authors that are finding independent success.
2. Amazon has a $1 price limit which puts a floor on prices.
3. Amazon offers 70% (as opposed to 35%) if you price your book over $2.99.

As more and more quality authors self-publish, the first limitation will disappear. The second might never disappear – However, the fact that there is a Top 100 Free Bestsellers list, and the fact that 100+ free books are offered every month, suggests that this price floor is being circumvented to an extent. As more and more competitors arise (new Publishing Platforms and new bookseller sites), the third will disappear – Keep in mind that until Apple entered the market Amazon used to give indie authors 35% and Publishers 50% to 65%.

Basically, the three main factors that have prevented The Race to Zero in the Kindle Store are all artificial and being whittled away.

Where the Kindle Store currently stands

Top 100 – In a stark departure from a few months ago, 18 out of the Top 20 items are above $5 in price. However, the picture isn’t as pretty for the overall Top 100. 46 out of the Top 100 items are at or below $5. An astounding 31 out of the Top 100 items are at $1.

That last number is interesting – How many Publishing Houses could survive in a world of $1 books?

Please note that this is in addition to the Top 100 Free Books List – which is listed right alongside the Top 100 Paid Books List. 

Combine those two lists and you get another scary factoid - At least 130 out of the Top 200 bestselling items in the Kindle Store are at $1 or below.

The Race to Zero is well underway. In 2008, there used to be 3 to 4 free books and 2 to 3 $1 books in the Top 100. Today, on May 15th 2011, 130 out of the Top 200 bestselling books are $1 or $0.

How Might the Race to Zero Progress?

The best case scenario is that there is a complete reversal and the strange pattern in the Top 20 ripples throughout the Kindle Store – 50% of items over $10, 90% of items over $5, and 10% of items below $5.

John Locke was taking up lots of spots and has faded a bit. Amanda Hocking was taking up spots and Publishers snapped her up. So, it seems as if Publishers have righted the ship.

However, what if this is a temporary respite.

The worst case scenario is that the Kindle Store continues The Race to Zero (instead of reversing it) and ends up like the iTunes store -

1. 9 out of the Top 10 Apps at $1.
2. 41 out of the Top 50 Apps at $1.
3. 81 out of the Top 100 Apps at $1.

If the thought of having 81 $1 books in the Kindle Store Top 100 seems improbable, consider the jump from 2008 to 2011 -

• 2008: 3 free books in the Top 100, 6 total books below $5 in the Top 100. Approximate numbers – you might get a little variance based on what stretch of 2008 you pick.
• 2011: A separate bestsellers list for free books, 46 total items below $5 in the Top 100.

It’s quite possible that in another 3 years books below $5 will capture 80% of the Top 100 paid spots. In fact, there’s nothing stopping $1 books from increasing their share of the Top 100 from 31% to 70% or more.

What Happens to Authors & Publishers if The Race to Zero take over?

Quite frankly, it’ll be hard for any company to survive on $1 books. Just the overhead of electricity and office rent will eat up most of the money $1 ebooks would generate. Unless a company can scale up massively without increasing employee numbers (like Craigslist), or can sell readers something in addition to ebooks (like Amazon), there will be very little profit in producing/publishing books.

It’s different for the platform since it is making money from every single book sale. Platforms can prosper because they get a 30% cut on every ebook sold.

Amazon and B&N are well placed because they make money from every ebook sale, they make money from device sales, and they make money from sales of things other than ebooks – For them selling $1 books becomes customer acquisition (remarkably cheap and remarkably effective customer acquisition).

For a Publishing company that makes bets on books – It becomes almost unsustainable to keep producing books. Your very big hits just won’t make enough money to sustain the failures and the inefficient business practices.

For published authors it’s a nightmare – they have reached the comfort zone of making a living from writing (in some cases even fortunes). That will gradually change. Those making tens of millions of dollars will make millions, those making millions will only make enough for a somewhat comfortable life, those making a healthy living will have to find other jobs, and everyone else will have nothing.

For independent authors, it’s a big opportunity to take up some of the Top 1,000 spots. The Top 100 spots will be the prize, and the Top 100 spots in the genre lists will be the consolation prize. Those writers will make a good living. The Top 100 might even get rich. 

Below the Top 1,000 it’s going to be very, very difficult. There won’t be enough money for existing Publishers to survive and newer Publishers won’t have the money or resources to take care of all the things authors hate to do – marketing and customer service and cover design and talking to people and planning and book-keeping.

What happens to readers if The Race to Zero takes over?

The good – lower prices.

The bad – lower quality, authors producing fewer books.

If you read mostly bestsellers, then it’s not an issue – There neither the quality nor the quantity of books published will suffer. There will still be enough money for authors who can reach the Top 100 and stay there.

If you read anything else, you will see a massive drop-off in quality and probably a sharp drop in quantity of good books published. Authors will not have as much time to write because they won’t be able to depend on writing for a living. Publishing Companies that survive, and the new ones that rise up, won’t have enough resources and money - they won’t be able to devote as much attention to quality.

The current problems with indie books will become the status quo – poor editing, awkward covers, all sorts of mistakes, lack of finish. We might even get the additional bonus of advertisements in books. These will generate enough money to make their way into books - but not enough to improve the quality of books.

Prices between $5 and $10 are sustainable – for authors, for book quality, and for companies in Publishing. Prices below $5 are probably not. The bad news is that book prices are definitely going below $5 and might fall all the way to the $1 to $3 range.

Readers are going to find out that while printing and shipping and paper might not be a mere 10% of the cost of making books - it definitely isn’t 90%. If $0.99 becomes the new standard, and replaces $9.99, we are going to be quite painfully reminded (with every book we read) that the $9 difference wasn’t all Publisher inefficiency and greed.

Blessing because they give authors a direct channel to readers. A curse because they give every other author a direct channel to customers.

Blessing because they reduce the importance and power of Publishers. A curse because most authors are completely lost without Publishers (and Publishers’ experience and expertise).

At the moment, Amazon & B&N are using a few major levers to save authors from themselves (and from other authors) -

1. $1 minimum price.
2. 70% of book sales revenue if you price the book between $2.99 and $9.99.
3. Separate lists for free books and paid books.
4. DRM in books by default (which you can choose to turn off).
5. A closed ecosystem with customers of good intent.

There are other, far more subtle, levers too – but there’s little point in diverging from the real topic.

It’s a tough world for authors

Publishers have no idea what to think of ebooks – other than ‘a danger to physical books’. If you’re a published author, you face multiple disadvantages -

1. You make less from ebooks per copy than if you were to self-publish.
2. Your books become less competitive because they are priced higher. Sometimes they’re even priced higher than the paperback.
3. Your books might not even be available as ebooks.

If you’re a self-published author, you have a completely different set of challenges -

1. How do you get people to find out your book(s) exist? 
2. How do you get people to pay for your books? 
3. How do you compete against published authors who have Publishing Giants backing them up?

Before we look at what authors could potentially do, let’s look at one of cruel truths of the brave new world of publishing.

There are no natural barriers stopping ebooks from going to zero

A lot of people will go on and on about the costs of writing and editing and polishing and so forth.

However, it’s not a barrier.

There are people willing to write books, and polish them to a passable level, in their free time. All it costs them is their free time. Thanks to ebooks and ebook publishing. you can’t keep these people out any longer.

The older barriers (distribution, printing costs, shelf space) are all destroyed.

That leaves a few other barriers -

1. Quality.
2. Curation.
3. Scarcity.
4. Readers’ desire to see authors get paid.
5. Etc.

Let’s consider three of these -

1. Quality isn’t really a barrier. It’s a bit naive to assume that the top 0.1% of self-published authors won’t be as good as published authors. Perhaps the Top 5% of Published Authors are safe for now. However, all other authors aren’t safe – there are indie authors who are producing, or will soon be producing, books that are just as good as these ‘published’ authors’ books.
2. Scarcity is hard to pull off. What are you going to claim – That enough ebooks weren’t printed? That eHardcovers cost more to print? That readers will have to wait 6 months because the ebook has to be created and transported?
3. Curation. This is where things get interesting. Will readers prefer to curate themselves or will they keep looking to Publishers and reviewers to curate?

If you look at all the barriers that existed – quality, scarcity, printing, shipping costs, limited shelf space, no channel to customers, curation - They are all being whittled away.

The only true barrier remaining is readers’ desire to see that authors get rewarded for their work. Any move that is antagonistic to readers, or treats readers like idiots, should be weighed in this context, i.e. readers are the only actual barrier stopping ebooks from going to zero.

eReaders and eBooks have done a lot more than people realize. They haven’t just revolutionized Publishing, they have brought it to the verge of potential extinction. They have given authors a rope with which authors can hang themselves (if they choose to do so, and they probably will). They have destroyed all the barriers that made the Publishing industry an industry and not a hobby.

What can authors do?

It’s hard to say. It’s really hard to say.

There are so many paradoxical aspects -

1. Authors have to avoid getting lost in the swirl of millions of authors. At the same time, authors need to figure out how to charge money and make a profit.
2. Authors have to avoid piracy. At the same time, authors have to figure out how to avoid getting all the ‘free and open’ people upset.
3. Authors need someone with the skillset of Publishers to help them. Yet, they can’t afford to sink alongside Publishers.
4. Authors have to use all the channels they can find (Kindle Store, Internet, Social Websites, Nook Store). On the other hand, it’s all indefensible if they don’t build their own channel to customers.
5. Authors have to find customers of good intent – customers who will pay for their books. In parallel, they have to try and get some value out of customers of bad intent (customers who refuse to pay for their books, but still want to read them).

Today, an indie author (and tomorrow, every author) has to wear a lot of hats – an author, a new-generation publisher, a marketing expert, an expert on human psychology, a social butterfly, a people person, an editor, a CEO, an accountant.

Every author is like a corporation. Competing with millions of other corporations – in an environment where customers are overwhelmed by corporations competing for their attention. An environment where there are very few defensible positions, and very few ways of gaining a lasting advantage.

Authors have to find sustainable, consistent channels

What’s an ideal channel -

1. It’s direct to customers.
2. It’s not taxed, or it’s taxed minimally.
3. The Author controls it. At worst, the author controls it through a conglomeration of authors.
4. There are lots of readers in the channel.
5. There are lots of readers in the channel who have a connection to the author.
6. It keeps evolving to become stronger and bigger and more flexible.
7. It’s consistent. It’s not limited by time/seasonality or other factors.

Perhaps the foundation of this magical channel is a reader loving an author’s book. Before that can happen you have to get the reader your book, and you have to get the reader to actually read it.

On top of that foundation (the reader loving your book), you have to add a way for the reader to reach your other books, a way for you to get a significant portion of what the reader pays, and a lot of other things.

Basically, for authors who think through things and start acting now, the Kindle Store and the Nook Store provide an incredible opportunity. Add on the approach Publishers are taking to eReader owners and eBooks, and the opportunity transforms into a once-in-a-lifetime chance.

These hard times are the golden times – It only gets tougher from here

Authors have a window of perhaps 1 to 3 years.

If, in that window, an author manages to create a strong connection with readers, create the feeling in readers’ hearts and minds that the author’s books are worth buying and worth waiting for, then that author is set.

If an author misses this window, then it gets too difficult. There will be too many authors competing - with too many good strategies and too many desperate strategies.

Apparently, the silver lining to how tough it is to be an author now, is that it’s going to be much, much tougher to be an author in 3 to 5 years – when the Publishing Industry as we know it has been transformed/smashed/wrecked and lies in tatters.

It’s an interesting contest – The fact that there are no natural barriers to $0 eBooks any more Versus The feeling an author can create in a reader by writing an amazing book and having the reader read it.

On why my work is worth more than two pints of Guinness

Bookseller and author – that means two times the pain courtesy the reading revolution.

There are some really interesting parts in the post. Before we jump into why the entire post is detached from reality, and explore the issue of ‘Return On Investment’ on books readers buy and read, let’s take a look -

1. this is my work and if I don’t value it correctly then who will?

2. I’ve worked extensively as a bookseller over the years and no other industry manages to devalue the potential of their bestselling product quite like the book industry.

3.  the sweet price for a novel published as an ebook is currently $2.99; sweet as in a decent return for the author, a cheap offer for the customer and not demeaning to the work.

4. when it comes to my third novel, Dancing to the End of Love, there’s just no way I can bring myself to give it away for a song. I value it too highly; it’s worth more to me than that.

This is an amazing post (in a good sense) - Because it’s very honest.

It’s also amazing because it’s an exemplary example of getting stuck in your own perspective. For example, point 4. where the author is so fixated on what the book is worth to him that he’s forgetting that it is readers (and not him) who will be buying the book.

You vs I; Author vs Reader

Here are 4 interesting figures -

1. Number of times me-centric words (such as I and my) are used – 46 times.
2. Number of times other-centric or us-centric words (such as you and we) are used – 17 times.
3. Number of times authors’ interests are referred to, or there is a mention of value authors and booksellers can get – 21 times.
4. Number of times readers’ interests are referred to, or there is a mention of value readers can get - 3 times.

That’s interesting isn’t it. What industry/company focuses 3 to 7 times more on what it wants than it does on what its customers want?

The article’s author fixates on a few things -

1. He doesn’t want to demean the value of his book.
2. He wants to sell books and make profits.
3. He wants to use a strategy that works for him.

At no point does he consider the reality that readers are investing in his book when they buy it.

Reality

Readers put time and money into a book. Money to buy the book. Time to read it.

There’s also an opportunity-cost. If the book is not good - readers have lost out on the opportunity to do something else (which might have given them more pleasure/happiness/satisfaction).

Any author who fixates completely on how to make money (i.e. how to get value from readers) is missing the most critical part – It should be a win-win situation. Everyone involved should get good value for their money/time/opportunity-cost.

Authors that fixate on providing value will do much better than authors that fixate on getting value.

Return on Investment

Here’s what a $10 book actually costs -

1. $10 to buy the book.
2. 4 hours of our lives as we read it.
3. Picking the book over watching a movie or doing something else.

It’s a sign of how stuck authors and publishers are in their MeMeMe world that they never even consider 2. and 3.

In that entire article the author never even considers that a reader is spending both money and time. The author never considers that the reader is picking his book over other forms of entertainment and over other ways of spending the time.

Maximizing ROI = New Authors better be at $1 to $3

If there’s a completely new author, there are 4 factors – the book price, the time we will spend reading, the opportunity-cost of choosing the book over other activities, the opportunity-cost of choosing the book over other books.

Readers who take a chance on a new author are taking a big risk.

Most readers understand it’s an exchange. Which is why it’s especially painful when authors talk about ‘not demeaning the value of their work’. Readers’ time has value too. As does their money. Are readers supposed to gamble on an unknown book just because the author thinks the book is worth $10? 

Your work has no value if it doesn’t get read. That’s what authors should worry about more – a book can only transfer value when it is read, your work only has value if people read it.

Publishers provided a few critical things – editing and polishing, printing, distribution, filtering for quality. With ebooks, creation and distribution isn’t an issue. With the intelligence of the crowds, we now have pretty decent filtering.

Everything on the supply side is becoming easier and cheaper. The cost of producing books, filtering them, and distributing them is going down. Readers are also benefitting as prices for some books are coming down. What hasn’t changed is the non-money cost to the user – user time, the opportunity-cost.

The last thing a new and unproven author should expect is for readers to buy his book for $10. That’s just being delusional.

Readers are perhaps doing new authors a favor by even reading their books

Every time a reader tries out an indie book, it’s a risk. If 3 out of 10 $1 indie books are good – that’s 12 good hours of reading out of 40 hours, it’s 3 good books bought after spending $10, it’s exchanging the possibility of hitting 5 good books out of 10 for 3 out of 10.

Yet, lots of authors are blind to this.

Every reader reading a new author’s book is a patron of the author’s art. That’s basically what it is.

Why make it tougher for these people to help you out? Why force them into the super risky situation of gambling $10 (in addition to time and opportunity cost) on an unknown author?

Lots of readers are going out of their way to support indie authors. Indie authors didn’t get into the Top 100 in all the major ebook stores because of Publishers or because of a royal decree from the King of Burma. It’s readers.

If the author of that article focused on how much value he could provide with his books, and on how much more value he could provide than readers paid for, he might end up with a few million people thinking his book is worth more than two pints of Guinness. Unfortunately, he’d rather fixate on his MeMeMe World - thereby limiting the value his books will provide and limiting the number of readers who will get value from his books.