Apple to control Music, Amazon to control Books – Apple’s Wishful Thinking

Wow! The DOJ’s Trial against Apple is the gift that keeps giving. Yesterday we found out that Apple claims 20% share of the ebook market, 100% growth in ebook sales in 2012, and 100 million customers of the iBookstore.

Today, we find out two big things (thanks to Eddy Cue, the senior most Apple executive questioned so far (SVP of Internet and Services)).

  1. Apple considered splitting Books & Music between Amazon and Apple. The key part from CNet’s coverage of DoJ vs Apple -

    Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice president of Internet software and services, who took the stand Thursday in district court in lower Manhattan, also said Apple considered splitting the market with Amazon in a setup where Apple would control the music market, while Amazon would monopolize books.

  2. Apple’s Eddy Cue pretty much admitted that ebook prices went up because of Apple’s deal with Publishers.

This is a bit of a surprise. On the one hand, Apple claims it did nothing wrong. On the other hand, their senior executives are admitting Apple’s moves led to higher ebook prices.

Apple’s Reality Distortion Field affects Apple Executives too?

Apparently, Mr. Cue got testy when asked what he thought about ebook prices going from $9.99 to $12.99 to $14.99. He didn’t think it hurt consumers. Here’s what he said -

“Our consumers were protected by my price points,” he said. “I thought we were going to treat our consumers very, very fairly.”

Wait a minute. Books were $9.99. Then Apple struck a deal with Publishers and caused prices to rise to $12.99 to $14.99.

Apple executives actually thought by doing this they were protecting consumers?

That’s some good Kool-Aid they’re serving at Apple’s SpaceShip One HQ.

Apple to control Music? Amazon to control Books?

The juiciest part of this entire conversation is this:

Apple considered splitting the market with Amazon in a setup where Apple would control the music market, while Amazon would monopolize books

Let’s get this straight – In the middle of a collusion/price-fixing trial, Apple’s most senior executive questioned so far, brings up the fact that Apple was discussing what would be an EVEN MORE ILLEGAL arrangement.

Amazon to control Books and in return Apple gets to control Music.

Bonus Points for using ‘control the music market’ and ‘monopolize books’. Let’s not leave any room for doubt, shall we.

This is just madness. Why on Earth would you mention this? Does anyone see any reason for Apple to mention it was considering this whole ‘Let’s collude with Amazon and split and monopolize the Music and Books markets’ idea?

It’s an interesting thought. There are probably all sorts of illegal arrangements and secret/silent partnerships that happen all the time. However, bringing up that you were considering it in the middle of a DoJ trial – that’s just amazingly foolish.

How would an ‘Apple to control Music, Amazon to control Books’ arrangement work?

Apple probably considered music very important for selling iPods and for maintaining its ‘coolness’. It perhaps thought Amazon valued books a lot because Amazon had the Kindle and a huge revenue stream from selling paper books.

Perhaps Apple was thinking about asking Amazon to end Amazon Music and/or channel it to iTunes. In return, Apple would channel iBooks to Kindle Store. The arrangement would work well. However, DoJ would come after Apple and Amazon. Perhaps it would be a secret deal where iBooks either stalls or Apple secretly promotes Kindle a ton. In return, Amazon would ramp down Amazon Music.

At this point, it seems pretty obvious that the DoJ needs to investigate how many of these ‘secret’ partnerships there are between the big technology companies.

Apple wanting to partner up with Amazon and secretly carve out monopolized markets for each other. Wow! Every day you learn something new.

In Defence of Delaying Gratification – Amazon from a non short-term Profit perspective

ReadWriteWeb writes an article about Comparing Apple, Amazon Based on Their Profits. It’s really interesting because they start off with the stupidest description of what Amazon does that ANY Silicon Valley worshipping Tech Blog has ever written -

Apple and Amazon are both in the business of designing small computers – tablets, ereaders, phones, media players – and selling them to the public. But how they do it is the big difference. And that’s best depicted by the astonishing difference in the two companies’ profits.

Did they just write that ‘Amazon is in the business of designing small computers – tablets, ereaders, phones, media players, and selling them to the public’?

Whether its Amazon or Microsoft, the tech press LOVES to bad mouth Seattle tech companies (actually any company not in SFO or the Valley). A company based in San Francisco that is selling users’ information or selling purple cows to users – the NEXT Amazing Technology. A company in Colorado making lifesaving equipment – Not worth a mention.

Let’s set some facts straight about Amazon. Then we’ll take a look at why Amazon is running a very different race from Apple. A race that might prove to be a much smarter race and a much longer lasting one.

Amazon is more than the Kindle and Kindle Fire

Let’s take a quick look at all the things Amazon does -

  1. Amazon.com.
  2. Amazon Web Services. This is, arguably, the #1 Cloud Services Provider. An industry that is going to be very, very significant.
  3. Lab126 – maker of Kindle.
  4. Kindle Store and book publishing divisions and companies like BookSurge, Mobipocket, CreatorSpace and various publishing imprints.
  5. IMDB.com. Movies Website.
  6. Amazon.com branches in multiple countries including Joyo.com in China and Amazon UK, Amazon Italy, Amazon Germany. Keep in mind these are ENTIRE country focused retail sites (not just a branch selling goods made in the US).
  7. Audible. Audiobooks.
  8. Zappos. Shoe and Apparel Retail.
  9. Shopbop. Retailer of Designer Clothing.
  10. Endless.com. Another retailer of Shoes and Apparel.
  11. Woot. Deals site.
  12. Amie Street.
  13. Lovefilm. Movie rental site in UK and Europe.
  14. The Book Depository. UK book selling site.
  15. Investment in Living Social, a daily deals site.
  16.  Brilliance Audio, audio book producer.
  17. A9 and Alexa – search and categorization sites.
  18. Amazon Movie Studios.
  19. Amazon Wireless. Selling phones and subscriptions.
  20. Operating retail websites for Lacoste, Marks & Spencer, Sears Canada, Timex, etc.
  21. Drugstore.com.
  22. Diapers.com.

Amazon is like the Hydra. You cut one head off and two others grow. It’s exactly the sort of strategy that stands the test of time. Just ask GE.

We basically have a LOT of billion dollar businesses that Amazon is running -

  1. Amazon.com. This is the main site.
  2. Amazon sites in different countries. Amazon UK by itself is a multi-billion business.
  3. Digital Media such as music and movies.
  4. Kindle devices.
  5. Kindle books.
  6. Cloud Services.
  7. Zappos and Shopbop and Endless.
  8. Diapers.com. Might not be a billion dollar business yet but it’s very close.

Amazon is setting up all these billion dollar businesses and it’s putting itself into position to make money from EVERY SINGLE THING that EVERY SINGLE PERSON buys ANYWHERE.

Yes, it’s probably going to fail in getting to that point. It will, however, end up as a company that -

  1. Has 100 million+ customers in the US. 500 million+ customers worldwide.
  2. Makes money from 25% to 50% of the items those customers buy. Consistent, recurring money – every single month for the life of the customer.

It’s going to be the ULTIMATE stable and HUGE business. If it gets to that point.

It might fail. However, the extent and scope of its ambition is impressive and ludicrous.

Microsoft was – a PC on every desk.

Amazon is – Every purchase by every person through Amazon.

Recurring Revenue is ALWAYS better than one time revenue

The single biggest thing Amazon understands very well is that it’s better to make money from customers repeatedly, than to just make money once.

  1. Better to make money from customers every month than just once every two years.
  2. Better to make money from customers from various products than from just 2 or 3 products.
  3. Better to make money from customers as often as possible.

Recurring revenue means that you know with a HUGE amount of certainty how much money you will make. You can invest now to grow and to make more profits in the future and to keep growing your recurring revenue.

It’s a vicious positive cycle – You keep using current profits as customer acquisition costs. And you keep increasing recurring revenue and profits. Then you keep pumping that back into new customer acquisition. It’ll take you a very long time to run out of customers to acquire. But when you do you’ll be left with 500 million to a billion profit generating customers for life.

Delaying Gratification = Long Term Survival

Those existing 7-8 billion dollar businesses that Amazon has. The additional 7-8 billion dollar businesses it is building up.

Those guarantee long-term survival (to whatever extent it can be guaranteed in such a fast changing world). If one product is no longer ‘The One’ then another takes its place. If one business gets defeated, then another takes up its place as a fundamental pillar for the company.

All those customers Amazon is locking up as long-term recurring revenue income streams – at the cost of current profits. Those are very, very valuable.

My prediction is that in 5 to 10 years we’ll see some very clear signs of what is the better approach – Selling devices for $200 to $300 instant profits to a somewhat smaller group OR Creating long-term customers for life from a somewhat larger group.

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