How will people look back at the Kindle & Nook era in 100 years?

Let’s start with a little snippet about Johannes Gutenberg and the Printing Press:

…probably introduced movable type to Europe, and is likely to have developed the earliest European printing press.

He is sometimes said to have started the Printing Revolution, regarded as the most important event of the modern period.

It played a key role in the development of the Renaissance, Reformation and the Scientific Revolution and laid the material basis for the modern knowledge-based economy and the spread of learning to the masses.

So we have a pretty intimidating frame of reference to compare eReaders and eBooks to – The Gutenberg Press played a key role in the development of the Renaissance, Reformation and the Scientific Revolution. The Gutenberg Press laid the basis for the knowledge economy and brought learning to the masses.

Here’s a quote talking about the impact of Gutenberg’s Printing Press  -

As early as 1620, the English statesman and philosopher Francis Bacon could write that typographical printing has “changed the whole face and state of things throughout the world” 

The first question that comes up is – Will eReaders and eBooks have similar impact?

eReaders & eBooks are unlikely to have the scale of impact of the Printing Press

The primary reason is that books already exist and they aren’t really very expensive. We aren’t going through a big jump from ‘books only being affordable to the top few percent of the population’ to ‘books being available to a huge percentage of the population’.

That opportunity doesn’t exist because Gutenberg and his Press already took it.

The secondary reason (and this is a really big one too) is that the Internet already exists and it’s already done a lot of what ebooks possibly could have. The barriers are already gone. Information is already spreading wildly and freely.

There might not be a big, huge oppportunity for ebooks to make pivotal impact. Because they arrive after Gutenberg and after the Internet.

Which brings us to our second question – What big positive impact are eReaders and eBooks having?

Are eReaders & eBooks making books more accessible?

Yes. We can definitely point to a few things here -

  1. Anyone can read all public domain books for free now.
  2. Books are available instantly.
  3. Books are slowly becoming cheaper.
  4. People who had limited access to books earlier - now have more access.
  5. More people are able to offer books so the choice available is increasing.

There is, however, a twist.

When absolutely anyone can publish books, and lots of people are, we run into a signal versus noise problem.

Have eReaders & eBooks made it too easy to publish and spread books?

You have to wonder.

  1. If there is no barrier to publishing a book – Is that really a good thing?
  2. If the amount of noise keeps increasing – Is that going to scare people away from books?
  3. If there is no real barrier to the spread of a book - Are there any dangers?
  4. Since the lack of barriers also applies to things like stealing books – Is this going to reduce money earned by authors and publishers to the point that it starts affecting quality?
  5. Are we getting too much of a good thing?

I think the Law of Unintended Consequences is going to do a real number on everyone in books (including readers and authors).

The Law of Unintended Consequences & Books

There are two separate things:

  1. Letting anyone who wants to publish, publish.
  2. Making it easy to publish – even if you shouldn’t be publishing.

These are intertwined and have opposing effects. 

  1. The first is good. It’s about freedom and the democratization of publishing.
  2. The second is bad. It’s about a lack of quality control and about terrible books drowning out the good ones.

Kindle and Nook and eBooks were supposed to allow people to publish. To let deserving authors bypass the Gatekeepers and go straight to readers. To let authors take 90% of the earnings instead of 10%.

The Law of Unintended Consequences says:

  1. In parallel with X deserving authors, we’ll have 10X undeserving authors who will also publish. ‘Undeserving’ is a very loaded term – interpret it as people who haven’t worked on the craft of writing enough to be worth readers’ time.
  2. Authors will get a larger share of earnings. At the same time the amount of earnings will start to plummet.
  3. There will be so much competition and such little defensibility that books as an industry will begin to disappear.

You can’t stop people from having free access to your books. You can’t stop authors and semi-authors and pretend-authors from publishing books. Readers can’t handle the sheer volume of published books. It’s spinning out of control.

eReaders and eBooks might mark the ‘Public Domain’ization of ALL books (new or old)

What has happened is that the minute you release an eBook, or for that matter a printed book, you leave it up to readers to decide what they will pay for it.

Readers don’t fully understand this. Authors don’t understand that readers have the option to pay zero. No one is willing to admit that sooner or later people will choose to buy a $4 cup of coffee and read the latest bestseller for free (as opposed to paying for the bestseller).

As soon as readers get a reason that satisfies their need to ‘not be the bad person’, they will gladly switch over to reading books without paying for them. They just need a reason – ads, price too high, restrictions, anything – and they will gladly switch to a model where they don’t pay or where they pay a ridiculously low amount.

In effect, your book is ‘public domain’ the minute it gets converted into ebook format. You can come up with ways to try to get people to pay for them. However, it’s going to be difficult – particularly as more and more kids trained to get everything (music, movies, games) free online grow up and expect the same from books. What makes books and authors special? Why aren’t books free like everything else?

The Legacy of eReaders and eBooks might be the conversion of books to works of charity

Think back to the ‘value perception of books’ in 2007. Now consider what the current value perception of books is. It’s changed a lot.

Can you imagine someone walking into a bookstore in 2007 and asking for the latest bestseller to be $3 or even $1? Yet, that is routinely what people are now asking for ebooks to be priced at. These are the same people who have all the power – they can just download the book for free.

eReaders and eBooks are building up two legacies -

  1. Anyone can get a book without paying the author of the book anything.
  2. Anyone can publish and dilute the average quality of books.

Both of these play into each other. More books = more competition = lower prices. Lower prices = lower quality = less differentiation. The net result is that eReaders and eBooks might end up doing a lot more bad than good.

Perhaps it isn’t the best thing in the world to remove all barriers and let people do whatever they want. Pay whatever they want. Publish whatever they want.

My prediction is that people will look back at the Kindle & Nook era in 100 years as the ‘dark age of books’. That what happens in books in the next 10 to 30 years due to eReaders and eBooks and human nature being left unchecked is going to be very damaging for books. This is no Guternberg’s Press. This is more like a storm that uproots the very foundation of a business model that, despite its faults, has some redeeming qualities. A storm that leaves behind a world where books are everyone’s property and the incentive and resources for crafting great books are diminished significantly.

11 Kindle thoughts for 2011

The Kindle family has had a very busy 2011. Here are 11 thoughts:

  1. It’s pretty remarkable that ’1 million Kindle devices are being sold every week’
  2. Kindle Fire is diluting the Kindle brand. In these senses: Forums are now taken over by Kindle Fire owners, People have begun to associate Kindle with ‘Tablet’ (as opposed to eReader), the concept of ‘eInk Kindle as the best reading experience’ is slowly being eroded, the visibility of eInk Kindles is diminishing. iPad wasn’t the Kindle Killer but Kindle Fire might be.
  3. Kindle Fire is surviving despite being the anti-iPad. Is it polished so much it shines and glitters? No. Does it have 100,000 apps for it? Not even close. Does it convey status? Not exactly. Does it meet some unknown bar of ‘feels right and scrolls magically’? Probably not since no one knows what the bar is. While every company was trying to win by cloning the iPad, Amazon has taken the route B&N did and won by anti-cloning the iPad.
  4. Kindle Fire has shown the power of the Amazon and Kindle brands. Any other company which released a Beta Stage Tablet (which, quite frankly, is what Kindle Fire is), would have been skewered over an open flame with an extra dose of not-iPad barbecue sauce. Kindle Fire owners are almost universally willing to wait for software upgrades.
  5. Amazon has really messed up on the eInk Kindle front. If there are serious doubts whether Kindle 4 and Kindle Touch are even as good as Kindle 3 (they aren’t, if you’re wondering) – then there’s a problem. If Nook Touch and Kobo Touch cannot be ignored in any ‘Best Touch eReader’ conversation, and are even being picked as the winner in some conversations - then Kindle Touch isn’t good enough.
  6. It’s an unknown whether Amazon will focus as much (or even much) on Kindles. A part of me still thinks Amazon approached books because there was no other company seriously making a device for readers. That eInk Kindle was just a dry run and the ultimate aim was to make a mini-Amazon store. Kindle Fire is much closer to that. Amazon is focused on gaining Amazon.com customers and getting them to make Amazon.com purchases. Kindle Fire becomes much more important when you view things in that context. 
  7. Books are almost destroyed in terms of value. There are 300+ indie authors each day making their books free. There are hundreds of books on sale for $1 and $2 every month. The price pressure is incredible. Instead of being the preserve of gatekeeper Publishers, books are turning into the preserve of Supermarkets that use books as loss leaders.
  8. Bestseller Lists and Kindle Daily Deal are turning into the ONLY channels (B&N also has equivalents). These 2 sources are becoming the only sources that hold any power. There’s not really any other way that you can reach a large number of Kindle owners.
  9. Publishers still don’t get it. However, they are beginning to get it. Can’t really expound much on this without it taking over the post. In Summary: Publishers are now beginning to do what they should have ideally done 10 to 20 years ago to safeguard against what Amazon has done (reduced books to loss leaders). It’s amazing that they did not understand this even after Kindle was released. It’s almost as if they’re in a time-warp and realize things 3 to 5 years too late.
  10. Readers now need Publishers. We’ve gone through the Golden Period and now we’re in the muck. Who’s going to pick out the quality books? Not Amazon. It benefits from users coming to Amazon, getting frustrated with the slushpile, and buying something else instead. Think about what Amazon has done – it’s randomized free book offers and turned the Kindle Store into slot machines. You don’t know whether you’ll get rewarded or not. You do know that you’ll go to Amazon.com.
  11. Amazon’s 10 year plan might have NOTHING to do with books. All along the belief everyone was laboring under was – What is Amazon going to do with all this power? Is it going to take over Publishing? Perhaps the question should have been – What is Amazon going to do with this gigantic pile of loss leaders? Is it going to reduce books to complimentary glasses of lemonade that get customers in and get them to pay for a 4-course dinner?

Strangely enough, all this writing has brought on a few more thoughts:

  1. In a perfect market for books, there would be very little money left for 99% of Authors. The average author want to be read much more than the average reader wants to read.
  2. Amazon cares far more about bringing users into the Amazon eco-system than what happens to the future of paid books. Nothing wrong with that. Unless you’re an Author or Publisher who needs for there to be a future for paid books.
  3. Some readers want prices to go down from $10 to $1. Yet they still want Stephen King and Pat Conroy level books. This is the second biggest threat to the future of books.
  4. The biggest threat to the future of books is that the market is going to be controlled by a few stores/platforms. These few stores/platforms will have so much power they can do anything they wish.
  5. There’s not really a way back to a sustainable system. Amazon pays authors 35 cents for a $1 book, or it pays a few cents for the download costs of a free book. It then gets $X via other purchases by the customer who came in for the free/cheap book. Why would Amazon ever go back from this system? Ask any store whether it’d be willing to pay 2 cents per customer visit.
  6. All the eReaders and Tablets create an opportunity for a new platform to rise that goes direct from readers to authors. We need someone crazy like Craig Newmark or Jimmy Wales to say: Let’s just get authors 90% or 100% of what readers pay. What Louis C. K. is doing – except with a platform that lets any author do it.
  7. Books are in danger of going the way of content on the Internet. A large platform/search engine does Divide & Conquer and just uses content/books as free material to run ads against or as a lure to attract users.
  8. Author should be asking themselves why they are getting only 35% from books that are below $3. Why isn’t Amazon factoring in the money it makes from other things users buy? The 70% cut should be across all book prices. It’s a bit of a joke that an indie author strengthening Kindle sales and the Kindle Store and Amazon.com by selling his book for $1 gets only 35%.

This year has shown me a few things (which might be wrong assumptions or might be right ones) -

  1. Amazon understands what it is doing.
  2. Hardly anyone else understands what Amazon is doing. Perhaps no one at all.
  3. The same thing that Amazon has used to kill Publishers can be used to remove Amazon from the equation.
  4. Readers’ loyalties only lie with themselves. And to an extent with Authors. Amazon’s move to lock-in Kindle Store purchases now seems necessary and hardly evil.
  5. B&N will survive. If Amazon tries to buy it, there will be FTC and Justice Department interventions. Amazon should have bought it when it had the chance.
  6. Kobo is far, far more dangerous than anyone realizes. We’re talking about a company that is surviving amongst monsters. It’s evolving very, very fast. Kobo 1 was so bad it almost seemed a practical joke. Kobo Touch cannot be ignored. Kobo might be beating Amazon handily in eInk readers by mid 2012 (if it keeps improving at this rate).
  7. Authors are royally done for. The iron-handed but somewhat benevolent dictators/gatekeepers are being replaced by an unthinking, uncaring platform.
  8. The Book Revolution is almost certainly going to turn into the Book Apocalypse. Unless something or some company stops it in 2012 and 2013. We have just a few years to stop the ongoing destruction.

2011 has seen such rapid developments, especially in terms of the devaluation of books, that it’s very tough to figure out where we’ll be headed next. Unfortunately, 95% of the possibilities are dark and disquieting.

Kindle Book Subscription Model seems inevitable

We’ve now seen two moves in quick succession by Amazon that bring us ever closer to a Kindle Book subscription model.,

  1. It added the Kindle Owners Library to the Amazon Prime Program. That’s already 25% of the work towards creating a proper Kindle Book subscription model. The $79 you pay a year for Prime gets you 1 free book loan a month.
  2. It just allowed any Author/Publisher to offer books free for up to 5 days in every 3 month period. That’s hundreds of free books a day for Kindle owners to choose from. When you consider the jump in sales rank and awareness this creates – it’s hard not to think that more and more authors will start offering free books in return for the marketing opportunity and the sales rank jumps. Of course, Amazon gets 90 day exclusives as a bonus.

It’s far closer to a subscription model than you would think at first. The first hints of ‘more books than you pay for’, ‘read as much as you like’, and ‘huge range of books’ are already there. Everyone’s on the slippery slope now. Even Amazon can’t stop what’s coming – It is, however, very well placed to take advantage of it. The things that are missing will gradually and automatically be filled in.

  1. More participation from the Big 6 Publishers. This will increase as Amazon gets more and more of a stranglehold over ebooks. Right now Publishers probably are thanking the Heavens that B&N invested in Nook and Nook Tablet. However, sooner or later, they will have to make a tough decision and either forsake Amazon completely or embrace its view of ebooks as Gold Stars that lure customers into Amazon.com’s virtual aisles.
  2. Anytime loans instead of the limit of 1 book a month. This shouldn’t be too difficult – as Amazon gets more power, and as authors become more desperate, we’ll see a lot more of this. We’re talking about authors who are already fighting to get people to pay them nothing for their books. Amazon is just supplying the little psychological magic (the $500K that gets split amongst a mere 5 million indie authors). Authors feel it’s less hopeless than it really is.
  3. Enough money (or a large enough lottery prize) for authors so that they are OK with offering their books for free. As soon as Amazon can figure out just how much money free book offers generate, in terms of other products bought at Amazon, it’ll start increasing the $500K a month bounty. It’ll still work out to nothing for 99% of authors. However, the lottery mentality means that every author secretly hopes she can get 10% of that monthly bounty (plus sales from the periods when her books aren’t free). More and more authors will jump in – as the prize gets bigger and bigger, authors will find it easier and easier to ignore the millions of other indie authors jumping in.
  4. In the UK there have been a flurry of complaints over the last few years about how supermarkets and retail store chains use book bestsellers as loss leaders. Selling them for 4 pounds and 5 pounds and driving bookstores to their death. Grocery Stores in the US have been using bestsellers as loss leaders too. Amazon is doing exactly the same - except it’s replacing $4 with $1 and $0. It’s ebooks so Amazon can give them away – it just has to offer enough of a carrot to authors or create a good enough lottery. A Kindle Book subscription model would be the ultimate lure to draw readers into Amazon.com - especially if Amazon can make it a Kindle exclusive. Amazon will 100% push for lifetime exclusives – it’s already tried with Amanda Hocking and probably with other authors. The End Goal is obvious - Kindle books as the irresistible loss leaders that pull people in to Amazon.com.
  5. Enough books published by Amazon imprints to provide a significant part of the subscription value (even if it’s 10% of the books people hear about, it’s still significant).
  6. Enough distillation of indie authors and smaller publishers to make the subscription model more compelling. Do note that the quality does exist – as soon as the curation problem is solved (if it is, and it probably will be), Amazon gets all the good indie authors who are, strangely enough, willing to offer up their books for nothing. All for the promise of recognition and other things that fill hearts and not stomachs.

Amazon thinks it’s game over. Don’t know if it is but Amazon is certainly behaving as if it’s game over – there’s no other reason to show its hand so early. Everything leads to a Kindle Book Subscription Model that is not only very compelling for the amount of reading it offers readers, it’s also exclusive to Amazon.

This is the inflection point. The fact that Amazon has set up and kicked off a model where not only are authors falling over each other to offer their books free to Kindle owners, they are also giving Amazon 90 day exclusives. The fact that it’s already started a Subscription Model and turned it into a selling point for Kindle Fire and Amazon Prime. Don’t see any way the Big 6 can get out of this alive. B&N is in deep trouble too – It’s restricted by its need to make money selling books. This is the inflection point of inflection points. It will, in retrospect, make the other inflection points in eReaders and eBooks seem trivial. The Tragedy of the Commons = The Best Lossleaders Ever.

What are the deeper implications of the shift to ebooks – for us

Let’s forget Publishers … and Authors … and all the companies that want to take over Publishing and Books.

That leaves us readers and our books.

We are migrating from books to ebooks and from a curated gatekeeper model to a mix of curation and long tail and ‘anyone can publish’.

What impact does it have on us?

Two Links to Set/Get some Context

Courtesy TeleRead we get two very interesting articles -

  1. Nicholas Carr warns schools about the potential switch to eBooks. Interestingly, this time he uses solid arguments to back up his gift for stringing words together poetically.
  2. At Quill and Quire, scientists in Toronto find that reading books changes people – that people create a simulation in their minds as they read and it has a measurable impact on personality (at least they claim it’s measurable). It might seem strange to do a study on something that seems pretty obvious to anyone who has ever read a good book. However, it never hurts to get proof that reading a book can have quite an impact on the reader.

Combine the two and we get an interesting thought - If Books really do change people, and if Nicholas Carr is right and ebooks aren’t as impactful as physical books, then are eBooks going to herald the dawn of a world where books no longer have as much impact?

eBooks come with advantages and disadvantages

If we think about the role books play and the impact they have on us, then it’s worth noting that eBooks are neither much worse nor much better than physical books.

eBooks just aren’t as good as Physical Books (in some respects)

Here are a few negatives (most of which Nicholas Carr has discussed at length, and in much prettier language, in his article) -

  1. With an eReader or a Reading Tablet there is always the temptation to check the news or play a game or surf the web or send an email.
  2. There is some difference between turning the pages of a book and getting the tactile sensation and the smell and the familiarity – versus using an eReader and the specific and very different experience it presents. Purely on the basis of the fact that we probably are in the habit of concentrating more (and going into a different state of mind) when reading a physical book, it’s quite possible that eReaders won’t present as pure a reading focus until we get used to them (which will be different for different readers).
  3. Absolutely anyone can publish an ebook. That means you get a lot of noise and a lot of people with some truly strange books and ideas influencing you.
  4. The quality control (both in terms of content and in terms of formatting and editing) is not as high.
  5. You can’t interact with the book in the form of taking notes like you could with a physical book. A little ’1′ mark for a note hardly replaces the impact of something scribbled in the margins.
  6. It’s different - just the act of switching to a new way of getting and reading books takes some getting used to. Some people will never try or will quite before they become comfortable with this new way.
  7. The inability to easily skim and write in margins means ebooks are not suited for textbooks. Add on the lack of color in the current generation of eReaders and we really don’t have any ‘textbook readers’ at all. Amazon didn’t help matters by pushing the College Student Pilot Program using a Kindle that had no touch, no color, and just wasn’t adequate as a text-book reader.
  8. The user interface still needs work – it makes some things (such as highlighting) annoyingly slow.
  9. eBooks are accused of not providing as many visual cues i.e. structure, chapters, where in the book you are. It doesn’t help that everyone has their own interpretation of page numbers and whether or not to show them.

That’s a long list and it isn’t even complete. Nicholas Carr seems like a genius and his advice seems golden – We really shouldn’t rush to replace old tools with new ones before thinking things through.

However, what about the things that ebooks do better?

eBooks do a better job than Physical Books (on some fronts)

Here’s the part that Nicholas Carr’s editor cut out from his article.

  1. eBooks are making reading a lot more affordable – which means more people can read, and people can read more. Black Echo for $1 and Stephen King Novellas for $3 just wouldn’t be possible with physical books. Nor would indie author books at $1 and book deals at $1 and $2 (at least not to the same extent). It will, almost certainly, lead to more people reading, and people reading more. Perhaps most importantly, it makes books competitive with lots of other ways of passing the time.
  2. eBooks are making reading a lot more accessible. People who couldn’t read can read now –  Larger text and Text to Speech is opening up reading to a lot more people. Additionally, People can read now in places and at times when they couldn’t read earlier. You can read on your phone, on your PC, or on your eReader. As Jerry Lee Lewis would put it - Whole lotta reading going on.
  3. With the Democratization of Publishing we get a lot more ideas and diversity. While there is a lot of noise, there is also a lot more variety. We have replaced the filter of ‘high quality and what Publishers think people should read and what Publishers think will make money’ with ‘zero quality control and what any person in the world wants to send out and varying consideration of profits’. The lack of quality control is bad but the other two things are good – everyone gets a shot and lots of people who don’t care about money get a shot.
  4. Convenience – Books in 60 seconds and stores that are open 24/7. This also increases the amount of reading as the friction is reduced significantly. Books needed ebooks to be able to compete with instant on TV and Internet and Video Games.
  5. There is more available in your genre of choice. Let’s say that you have an unhealthy obsession with Post-Apocalyptic novels – Well, you can now choose from Publishers and Small Publishers and Indie Authors and your neighbourhood Baker. There’s less quality control but a lot more choice – plus you are free of the threat of everyone switching over to publishing Twilight clones for 16-year-old girls.
  6. eBooks are giving books a longer life. Whether we like to admit it or not, the truth is that $10 books sold in physical stores and published according to their profit potential were losing out to things like TV and YouTube. Now books are competitive again.

While rushing out to replace our old, trusted tools would be stupid, it would be equally stupid to keep using them if everything around us is changing and they just aren’t as effective.

The world is changing and books have to change too – If books don’t evolve they face the very real danger of dying out or becoming far less important.

Of course, there are still a lot of unanswered questions.

Things Left Unanswered

Well, here are a few -

  1. How do eBooks affect us? Do they affect us as much as physical books or more?
  2. What happens when Network effects start kicking in? What happens when unknown authors become bestsellers in the space of a few days?
  3. Will people read more now that ebooks are so accessible and cheap or will they read the same amount and just spend less on books?
  4. Will the quality control of books be gone forever? It’s hard to imagine Publishers being able to afford to run stringent quality control given the likely drop in ebook prices.
  5. Will the lack of sharing and resale have some permanent effect?
  6. Will we ever get an eReader that can handle textbooks? Perhaps it’s the students that are the problem – Do we really think we could ever make a device that would satisfy college students?
  7. If books become very accessible due to the rise of ebooks will people become too smart? Do we really want people who are capable of making the cognitive leap that they shouldn’t be funding Wall Street bonuses with their retirement savings?
  8. Will people get too influenced by each other? Will the gatekeeping of Publishers get reduced by the Court of Peer Pressure and Public Opinion?
  9. What happens in we end up with 2 major players in Books and things get even more controlled than when there were Publishers?

These are exciting times for anyone in Publishing. They are critical times for anyone who reads – a lot is going right and a lot could go wrong. It’s easy for Publishers to focus on the negatives and for us to focus on the positives. There are things happening that can’t be undone – not all are good, not all are bad, but most are irrevocable.

In a way, no one knows what will happen. Everyone is waiting for an opportunity to seize an advantage and take over the profits in books and everyone is uncertain of the direction in which things will move. This might be the best of times for books. This might be the worst of times for books. It might even be both - In fact, it probably is both.

The most significant event that no one is talking about

The Book Settlement was rejected.

The most controversial Book Settlement ever proposed was rejected. Judge Chin has made a marvellous decision and he’s a hero – if it’s not clear now, it will be clear to future generations.

First, some documents and links -

  1. Judge Chin’s Statement (PDF). 
  2. Caroline McCarthy’s Article on Judge Chin rejecting the Book Settlement

Next, my take – which is admittedly biased by the fact that I feel every creator should have a right to decide how his work will be used, and who can profit from it.

Key Parts of Judge Chin’s Statement

These paint a very good picture of why the Settlement was rejected.

The question presented is whether the ASA is fair, adequate, and reasonable. I conclude that it is not.

… would grant Google significant rights to exploit entire books, without permission of the copyright owners.

would give Google a significant advantage over competitors, rewarding it for engaging in wholesale copying of copyrighted works without permission.

Seriously, Judge Chin is my hero for looking past all the ‘Let’s Save the Penguins’ rhetoric. He recognized that this was basically Publishers etc. ’stealing other people’s work’ with the added bonus that it would create a monopoly for a company that already controls Search.

Would dead authors and people who have forgotten about their work want their work to benefit readers? Or would they rather that their work makes money for corporations?

The corporations are trying to have us believe that they are doing it to save baby seals who will be clubbed to death if the corporations don’t make money from other people’s work. What nonsense - We aren’t the TV generation, and we aren’t going to fall for infantile trickery.

Judge Chin points out that there are lots of benefits of the Settlement and then points out the objections from people opposed to the Settlement. He also gives his take on each (Judge Chin’s take in italics).

  1. Adequacy of Class Notice. The Class Settlement has a ridiculously huge ‘class’ – Pretty much anyone who owns a US copyright interest in one or more books and their heirs and successors. A lot of these class holders were not given adequate notice. Judge Chin rejected this argument.
  2. Adequacy of Class Representation. Interests of some class members, such as foreign rights holders, are at odds with interests of Publishers and Google. Judge Chin agreed with this -

    I conclude that there is a substantial question as to the existence of antagonistic interests between named plaintiffs and certain members of the class.

  3. Scope of Relief. The Settlement would create a ‘forward-looking’ business arrangement. Judge Chin agreed with this objection, i.e. the Settlement doesn’t just address Google’s copyright violations, it also transfers certain rights to Google.

    As articulated by the United States, the ASA “is an attempt to use the class action mechanism to implement forward-looking business arrangements that go far beyond the dispute before the Court in this litigation.” (DOJ Statement)

    Judge Chin goes on to say that this is a matter for Congress, that the Settlement would release claims well beyond those currently being contemplated, and that interests of certain rights holders (like academic authors) have not been considered.

  4. Copyright Concerns. Violations of the Copyright Act because the Settlement pretty much runs roughshod over existing copyright laws. Judge Chin pointed out that the ‘opt-out’ nature would allow Google to exploit rights of authors who have not agreed to give up their copyright, that copyright is better suited to Congress, etc. The strongest point was that a copyright holder would have to take action to prevent losing rights – which you have to admit is pretty absurd. This is one snippet that is interesting -

    it is incongruous with the purpose of the copyright laws to place the onus on copyright owners to come forward to protect their rights when Google copied their works without first seeking their permission.

  5. Anti-Trust Concerns. Google can sell subscriptions, sell books, sell advertising in books, and make other uses. While this is non-exclusive, it does, in effect, give Google a monopoly over orphan books and perhaps even digital books. A monopoly over orphan works and the Settlement would further strengthen Google’s dominant position in search. Basically, and these are my thoughts, it would give Google an almost unlimited supply of high quality content to use – content which other search engines would not have. Judge Chin is clearly concerned about the anti-trust aspects and about the advantage this would give Google in search.
  6. Privacy Concerns. Google would collect all this information about people who read books. Judge Chin says the privacy concerns are real but not enough in themselves to reject the settlement.
  7. International Law Concerns. The Settlement would, according to some foreign authors, violate International Law. Also, it would favor rightsholders from certain nations. Judge Chin sums up his concern here succinctly -

    The fact that other nations object to the ASA, contending that it would violate international principles and treaties, is yet another reason why the matter is best left to Congress.

So Judge Chin considers 5 out of the 7 concerns to be valid.

Judge Chin’s Conclusion

Here it is -

In the end, I conclude that the ASA is not fair, adequate, and reasonable.

As the United States and other objectors have noted, many of the concerns raised in the objections would be ameliorated if the ASA were converted from an “opt-out” settlement to an “opt-in” settlement. I urge the parties to consider revising the ASA accordingly.

There couldn’t be a harder slap in the face for the looters. If you want to steal other people’s work – first, you have to get them to opt-in. It’s absolutely delicious – Google thinks everyone’s an idiot and doesn’t understand the huge difference between opt-in and opt-out – Judge Chin just smacked them right across the face.

My take on Judge Chin rejecting the Settlement

Google and Publishers were trying to build a nice little monopoly for themselves. Which would lock out any other companies interested in ebooks and would take advantage of authors. Unfortunately, for them, Authors and Rival companies didn’t fall for the ‘Saving Penguins’ nonsense and objected and opted out and destroyed any chance of Publishers+Google getting away with this monopoly creating Agreement.

Judge Chin made an amazing decision. Notice his recommendation – Change it to an ‘opt-in’ instead of an ‘opt-out’. That’s brilliant. That ensures that only authors who actually know what the settlement is, and agree voluntarily to participate, are included.

The Huge Ramifications of the Book Settlement Rejection

Judge Chin’s rejection of the Settlement deals a heavy blow to Publishers and Google -

  1. It kills Publishers hopes of a Divide and Conquer strategy. Without something like exclusive rights to all orphan works they have no way to slow down Amazon and B&N.
  2. It significantly weakens Google’s dual hopes of a subscription based approach and of books supported by advertising. Both approaches depend heavily on having access to books other companies don’t have access to. They also depend heavily on offering orphan works as cheap throw-ins. No one ever considered the possibility that Google might just throw in these for free or very cheap to gain an advantage – that Google might have no interest at all in making rights holders any money.
  3. It means that Amazon and Apple and B&N are safe. Publishers & Google do not get a permanent monopoly on orphan works – an advantage which no other company would ever be able to match.

Publishers intended to use the Settlement as a way to empower Google and turn the eBook Wars into a three-way tussle between Amazon and Apple and Google.

Google intended to use the Settlement as a way to introduce the virus of advertising-supported Free into the world of books. Note that 96% of Google’s revenue is advertising - it’s naive to assume that Google intended to focus on generating viable revenue for authors. It just wanted YouTube Part 2.

Google was extremely interested in giving away books and orphan works for free and very cheap (as part of subscriptions). It had little interest in maintaining the value of books. Why? Because enough pennies and they add up to something that even Google finds sizeable. Of course, authors would have their work devalued – But Google doesn’t care because pennies added up across all authors’ books leads to a lot. Who cares if authors starve?

A Win for Readers and Authors

Middle-men always have big promises – we are preserving books for future generations, we are letting authors make money from books that are out of print.

The truth is that middle-men are always leeches and parasites trying to take advantage of naive readers and gullible authors. Why try for an ‘opt-out’ agreement? Why try to make money from orphan works when the rights holders can’t be found? Shouldn’t those works be given away free?

Publishers and Google were creating a huge monopoly for themselves. Judge Chin saw through all the lies and hypocrisy and suggested exactly what the Settlement should have been – Valid only for authors who agree to participate.

All the layers between Authors and Readers are being stripped away. Platforms are useful and Apple and Amazon are earning their 30% cut. However, leeches that try to forcibly take the works of others and sell them for profit have no place in the New Publishing World.

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