Are Indie Authors 12% of ebook sales? 25% of ebook sales?

The Bookseller is using data from Bowker Market Research that claims 12% of all ebook sales are indie author sales.

It also adds this gem -

 the self-published share of e-book volume sales more than 20% in areas such as crime, science fiction and fantasy, romance and humour.

The one strange thing about this survey is that it claims ebooks were 13% of total book sales in Q1, 2013. This is directly at odds with what Publishers themselves are reporting i.e. 25% of book sales in 2012 were ebook sales.

Update: Thanks to Thad for clarifying this. Bowker is UK. So UK is seeing 13% ebook sales and US is seeing 25% ebook sales. Then it makes everything else fall into place. In UK indie authors are 12% of ebook sales and in US they are 23% to 27%.

There’s a comment at The Digital Reader that add some interesting figures about ebook sales share for indie authors (The B&N one I’ve seen and is precisely what B&N said, the rest I didn’t know about) -

The obvious answer is to go by what the retailers willing to talk tell us:

B&N has been bragging that 25% of their sales are indie/self-pub.
Amazon is going to be higher, say 30%.
Kobo is reporting their Writing Life self-pubs are 10%. Add in their share of Smashwords and it could easily double.

Factoring in the retailers’ market share, I’d peg the number at 25%, minimum. It might even be as high as 30%.

Well, let’s make some guesstimates and see where we end up.

Please Note: We aren’t trying to win a Nobel Prize in Statistics or Economics. Just making some guesses.

What percentage of eBook Sales are Indie Author Sales?

The one hard fact we have is B&N’s claim that 25% of its ebook sales are indie authors and published authors who have become indie.

Let’s look at the Top 100 Lists and see if actual sales rankings reflect this -

  1. Kindle Store has 3 indie titles in the Top 10, 7 in the Top 20, 20 in the Top 60, 27 in the Top 100.
  2. Nook Store has 3 indie titles in the Top 10, 6 in the Top 20, 15 in the Top 60, 23 in the Top 100.

Note: I’ve not included Publishers like Crimson Publishing, Chronicle LLC, Modern Mythology, etc. where I had no idea whether they were indie or existing smaller Publishers.

If we look at these figures we get some rather striking data points -

  1. 30% of the Top 10 and 30% to 35% of the Top 20 are indie titles.
  2. 23% to 27% of the Top 100 are indie titles.

The Top 100 Lists in the Kindle Store and the Nook Store would suggest that indie titles account for 20% to 25% of unit sales. This matches what B&N is saying (25% of sales are indie authors) and somewhat matches what the survey found for genres like romance and fantasy (20% of sales are indie titles).

However, it clashes with the claim that indie author sales are just 12% of total ebook sales.

Asides

An interesting observation: There are LOTS of books from Amazon Publishing Imprints in the Top 100 in the Kindle Store. Never seen that before. Do they deserve to be there? Is this the beginning of Amazon using its power in the Kindle Store to pump up its own published titles? Who knows.

Another interesting observation: The existing Big Publishers are trying lots of discounts. First time I’ve seen them have 10-20 books under $5 in the Top 100, including lots at $1.99.

Are Indie Authors 20% to 25% of eBook Sales? Or are they 12%?

Bowker’s Research says 12%.

However, B&N has claimed 25% and our rather unscientific study shows 23% to 27%.

This suggests that the actual share Indie Authors have of the eBooks market is closer to 25%. It’s quite stunning actually -

  1. 25% of total book sales are now ebook sales.
  2. 25% of ebook sales are now indie author sales.

Could it be possible that in 3-5 years we see -

  1. 75% of book sales are ebook sales.
  2. 50% of ebook sales are indie author sales.

I wouldn’t bet against it.

We have Amazon using its marketing prowess to push up its own published titles (which is just wrong, no matter how you look at it – there has to be separation between store and publishers). We have the Big Publishers fighting with $1 and $2 and $3 and $4 books. However, my money is on indie authors. They are relentless, they are hungrier, and they are infinite.

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