Please wait at least 3 weeks before buying a Kindle or an eReader

It’s so EXCITING – Amazon has refurbished Kindles for sale.

Actually, it’s not.

It’s just the latest sign that Kindle 4 (AKA Touchable, Delectable Kindle with Politically Correct But Totally Boring Name that Kills Brevity and Chops it into a Thousand Little Pieces) is about to be announced in two to three weeks.

Given that there is a small chance we might see something exciting -

  1. 3% chance we’ll see a 100% amazing color screen or something equally cool like gesture recognition.
  2. 97% chance we’ll see a 10% amazing touch screen or a 1% amazing low-priced Kindle with Super Special 1-Day Only Offers with Cashback.

It makes absolutely no sense to buy a Kindle right now.

Of course, if you belong to the grand tradition of ‘Reading is not worth more than a $100 device’ then congratulations – You can get a refurbished WiFi for $99, and then write about how it sucks because unlike a real book it doesn’t work without external lighting … ummm … that’s confusing … you mean to say real books never used to work without external light.

Does this really mean a new Kindle is around the corner?

Yes, because Amazon loves to go indirect and put ‘refurbished’ Kindles on sale. Of course, it doesn’t mean that every (or any) refurbished Kindle sold for $99 will actually be new.

Please Note: This is conjecture – there is little chance that you’ll get a new Kindle. Assume that there is a 100% chance you will get a refurbished Kindle with Tommy loves Becky carved into the Silicon motherboard.

Amazon tends to do one or more of the following when it has a new model about to arrive – put the current model on sale or cut the price (which it did via the Kindle 3G with Special Offers move), put the ‘refurbished’ version on sale (which it just did today), organize a leak to BusinessWeek or another main stream publication (which should happen next week).

All signs point to a Kindle 4 being right around the corner. Amazon has become so obvious that even the main stream blogs are taking a break from writing about how iPhone 5 might be 0.05 picometer thinner than iPhone 4 to write about the amazing, journalistic-insight-filled news that Kindle 4 might be arriving soon.

Tip of the Hat to Google

Our favorite ‘All Your Books are Belong to Us’ company Google has managed a feat that Schroedinger’s Cat would be proud of -

  1. Google Spectral Presence 1 – It is so wrong that Apple and Microsoft are buying up patents and will make more money from Android than we will. Patents are wrong. Patents are just standing in the way of innovation. All these telecom patents are just limiting progress. After all, who cares about some algorithm that lets you get data faster?
  2. Google Spectral Presence 2 – Hey, did you hear about the cool new patent we got for our Google Doodles. Because it’s such a cool amazing idea – to draw Doodles and use that to get people interested in visiting our site. It’s deep and meaningful and not trivial and unworthy of patents like some random telecommunication patents which cover technology that billions of cellphones use.

It’s interesting how people develop religion around companies.

The person who has Google religion refuses to acknowledge that iPhone is easier to use.

The person who has Apple religion refuses to acknowledge that Microsoft’s Kinect is a pretty cool technology and probably more revolutionary than something like FaceTime which was already available via a dozen different companies.

The person who has Microsoft religion refuses to acknowledge that it’s impressive (and disconcerting) that Google still has the clearly best Search Engine. That even after fitting in 19 ads and 19 links to Google’s other sites, Google still has better search results than its competitors. If that isn’t a miracle, what is?

Will we start seeing the same thing with Kindle and Sony Reader and Nook?

What happens if Amazon releases a totally pointless Kindle 4? Will Kindle owners be able to recognize its lack of impressiveness or are they wedded to the belief that Kindle is untouchable?

What happens if Amazon releases something truly impressive? Will Nook owners just pretend that color (or gesture recognition) means nothing?

What if Sony’s new eReaders (yes, those are around the corner too and promise to have WiFi) are way better than Nook Touch and Kindle 4?

What about the Kindle Tablet?

Truthfully, if Kindle 4 only has touch then it’s as unremarkable as a doorknob in a house with 25 rooms.

In that case, the Kindle tablet becomes far more interesting.

Will it talk to you and ask you how your day at work went? Will it come in for under $200? Will it be possessive and be jealous of your long walks with your dog? Will it come with free movies and free music?

The Kindle Tablet is the promised Tablet that shall turn the iPad market into a Tablet market. Will it really do that? What effect will it have on the delightful Nook Color? Will there be a Nook Color 2 that will steal the Kindle Tablet’s thunder and send Amazon back to the drawing board?

Exciting times – we live in exciting times. And sometimes the excitement ends up being justified.

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